Assessment of strategies to project U.S. landfalling hurricanes. Judith Curry

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1 Assessment of strategies to project U.S. landfalling hurricanes Judith Curry

2 Overview Uncertainties in historical landfall data base Impact of modes of natural climate variability Impact of global warming Projection of landfall activity

3 Uncertainties in historical landfall data base Discrepancies between landfall and Best Tracks databases Updates to HURDAT Errors in formatted versions of HURDAT Counting of landfalls

4 Annual average landfall counts CFAN s dataset has fewer major hurricane landfalls on the Atlantic coast than HURDAT data base

5 Impact of modes of natural climate variability on U.S. landfalls El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Multidecadal ocean oscillations - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) - Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Some predictability on seasonal to interannual time scales

6 What s up with El Nino? (hurricane season) Nino3 Nino4 Modoki Normalized index Kim, Webster, Curry 2009 A different flavor of El Nino: Nino4 warming (Modoki)

7 Impact of ENSO on annual cycle of NATL TCs Kim, Webster & Curry (2009) CPW Nino3 Nino4 EPW: El Nino CPW: El Nino Modoki EPC: La Nina CPC CPW (El Nino Modoki) has more TCs than EPW (El Nino), with more TCs later in the season

8 ENSO Impact on Track Anomalies El Nino (EPW) El Nino Modoki (CPW) La Nina (EPC) Kim, Webster & Curry (2009)

9 Time series of multidecadal climate regimes warm phase Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) cool phase In warm phase since warm phase 1 0 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -1 cool phase Just entering cool phase

10 N. Atlantic Hurricanes Decadal modes of variability: AMO & PDO Elsner et al 2004 changepoints Warm AMO Cool PDO Currently in warm AMO, cool PDO

11 Atlantic Major Hurricanes 9 Warm AMO Cool PDO Strong increase in warm AMO, cool PDO

12 8 6 Warm AMO Cool PDO Landfalling Hurricanes More Atl coast: landfalls more in in warm AMO, warm cool AMO, PDO cool PDO 4 3 More landfalling majors in warm AMO, cool PDO : El Nino Modoki 2005: Very high AMO

13 3 2 Warm AMO Cool PDO Landfall Locations 1 Atl coast: more in warm AMO, cool PDO Fl coast: more in warm AMO : El Nino Modoki 2005: Very high AMO

14 Annual average landfall counts AMO & PDO warm AMO warm AMO, cool PDO * * * * *

15 Global hurricane statistics since 1980 Since 2005, global number of hurricanes has decreased Since 2000, % cat 4, 5 hurricanes has been higher than previously in the global record

16 Atlantic hurricanes and global warming: JC assessment Hurricane frequency and intensity has likely [>66%] increased since 1970: insufficient information for attribution It is more likely than not [50%] that intensity will increase in a warmer climate Little confidence in climate model projections of future hurricane activity

17 Challenges to (re)insurance industry Challenges in projecting future hurricane activity for: autumn forecast of the following year s hurricane activity spring (Feb/Mar) forecast of coming hurricane season provide some level of consistency from year-to-year Sources of predictability on these time scales: multidecadal oscillations (AMO, PDO) seasonal to interannual variations (ENSO)

18 Forecast guidelines: Continuation of the warm phase of the AMO and cool phase of the PDO. Warm AMO/cool PDO is associated with increased frequency of landfalls along the Atlantic seaboard, but fewer landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico. Dominance of La Nina and El Nino Modoki events, with increased U.S. landfalls. Since the shift to cool PDO, global temperatures have not been warming, and there is no apparent reason to factor in any global warming impact.

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