Conference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans November Fall-to-winter changes in the El Nino teleconnection
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1 Conference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans November 2008 Fall-to-winter changes in the El Nino teleconnection BLADE MENDOZA Ileana Universitat de Barcelona, Department D'Astronomia i Meteorologia Facultat de Fisica Marti Franques Barcelona SPAIN
2 Early winter to midwinter changes in the El NIÑO teleconnection Ileana Bladé University of Barcelona with Matt Newman and Mike Alexander, ESRL-NOAA Bladé et al. JCLIM 2008
3 Canonical model for ENSO teleconnection Rossby wavetrain emanating from a wide region of warm SSTs and anomalous convection in the central equatorial Pacific.
4 BUT THIS SIMPLE PICTURE OVERLOOKS: there are multiple SST and heat sources in the tropics that contribute to the observed El Niño teleconnection, particularly in the western Pacific this is well-known (e.g. Barsugli and Sardeshmukh, 2002) the TNH El Niño teleconnection pattern does not get well established until January -> this is LESS well known (Wang and Fu 2000, Livezey et al. 1997)
5 OBSERVATIONS: EL NIÑO COMPOSITES ( ) 9 event composite of 200 hpa height and SST anomalies DECEMBER SST JANUARY similar SST forcing Z-200 but very different wavetrains
6 robust result also true for other variables (SLP, precip) other criteria for EL NIÑO events bi-monthly means (NOV-DEC vs JAN-FEB) linear regressions (for any NIÑO index) longer periods ( )
7 2-month regressions vs NIÑO 3.4 index NOV-DEC JAN-FEB Z-200 SLP
8 and for US precipitation EL NIÑO signal DEC NOV-DEC Observed us precipitation el NIÑO composites (9 strong events): JAN JAN-FEB
9 The changing orientation of the El Niño wavetrain suggest that its primary source shifts from the western tropical Pacific in late fall/early winter to the central tropical Pacific in winter DECEMBER Z-200 JANUARY
10 OBSERVED REGRESSIONS AGAINST NORTH PACIFIC SLP INDEX (NPI): (sign of NPI index reversed): GHCN PRECIPITATION AND REYNOLDS SST DECEMBER JANUARY Seasonal shift in sensitivity: more North Pacific sensitivity to precipitation and SST in western tropical Pacific in December than in January.
11 This sensitivity shift may be explained with simple Rossby waveguide arguments and is consistent with the results of Newman and Sardeshmukh (1998)
12 300 hpa u ζ ϕ K s DEC JAN
13 We might then expect a stronger DECEMBER El Niño teleconnection when WARM SST conditions and convection prevail in the western tropical Pacific stratify 9 EL NIÑO events according to SST conditions in the tropical western Pacific: UPPER/WARM and LOWER/COLD tercile composites (3 samples each) 1957, 1965, 1969, 1972, 1976, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1997
14 DEC WARM TROP. WEST PACIFIC COLD TROP. WEST PACIFIC WARM COLD Z-200 PREC SST U surf EL NIÑO + WARM TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC (DECEMBER): 1969,1987, 1997 EL NIÑO + COLD TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC (DECEMBER): 1965, 1972, 1991
15 How well do GCMs reproduce this seasonal sensitivity shift from early winter to mid winter and associated El Niño teleconnections differences?
16 Other GCMS run in AMIP mode: ECHAM4.5 (T42): 24-member ensemble ECHAM 5 (T42): 24-member ensemble ECHAM 5 (T85): 16-member ensemble CAM3 (T42): 5-member ensemble CAM3 (T85): 5-member ensemble GFDL-AM (T42): 10-member ensemble
17 SST REGRESSIONS AGAINST NPI : OBS ECHAM5 (T42) PREC OBS ECHAM5 (T42)
18 REGRESSIONS: NPI vs SST DECEMBER GFDL-AM2 JANUARY DECEMBER CAM3-T85 JANUARY
19 EL NIÑO Z-200 COMPOSITES DECEMBER ECHAM5-T42 JANUARY DECEMBER ECHAM5-T85 JANUARY
20 EL NIÑO Z-200 COMPOSITES DECEMBER CAM3-T42 JANUARY DECEMBER CAM3-T85 JANUARY
21 BAROTROPIC ROSSBY WAVEGUIDE DECEMBER ECHAM5-T42 GFDL-AM2 JANUARY
22 CONCLUSIONS There is a dramatic shift in the sensitivity of the North Pacific circulation to tropical forcing, from the tropical western Pacific in early winter to the central/eastern Pacific in mid winter. This sensitivity shift is consistent with the attendant changes in the basic state jet and associated Rossby wave guide and is not well reproduced in GCMs. In early winter the El Niño teleconnection is strongly modulated by forcing from the western tropical Pacific, being stronger when warm conditions and convection prevail in that region. Diagnostic studies using DJF seasonal averages may obscure some important aspects of climate anomalies associated with El Niño.
23 El NIÑO 2006/07 an example of weak tropical bridge, warm SSTs and enhanced convection in TWP and a pronounced extratropical El Niño wavetrain in late fall
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