Evolutionary biogeography and conservation of rainforest faunas

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1 Evolutionary biogeography and conservation of rainforest faunas Improving prediction of biodiversity distribution Understanding effects of past climate change on diversity Identifying and protecting evolutionary processes Craig Moritz & Ana Carnaval UC Berkeley

2 Geographic scales of decision making for conservation planning Global Coarse geographic scale Variable data quality but usually some information Relevant to international conventions (CBD) & large-scale funding Local Meso- Fine geographic scale Where real decisions are made and actions are taken Data typically sparse

3 Surrogates for biodiversity prediction Indicator taxa - relatively well surveyed groups, eg. birds, butterflies, higher plants Environmental data - globally extensive information on climate, terrain etc. Complementarity analysis Modelling of species distributions Prediction of overall biodiversity values for areas Does it work? Can we do better by incorporating habitat history

4 The Australian Wet Tropics Rainforest: 0.1% land area, but richest and most endemic region of Australia; World Heritage Area on basis of ancient, diverse biota COOKTOWN Co o kto wn Big Tableland Windsor Tableland Thornton Peak Carbine Tableland Black CAIRNS Mt. corridor Ca i rns 1 1 Lamb Range Malbon Thompson Range Atherton Tableland Bellenden Ker Mts Kirrama Range Hinchinbrook Is. Seaview Range Queensland Paluma Range Km TOWNSVILLE Townsv ille Mt. Elliot Yeates et al. 2002

5 5. FU WU 2. CU 1. AU BM LU KU 100 Kilometers CL BL LE Ranking of Bioregions of the Wet Tropics for conservation of endemic species (Moritz et al. 2001) TL ML MF MT CC SU HU IL 4. TU HINCH 3. BK T V 6. EU LEGEND Rank Order % of Total Summed Irrepl. Species Reached AU Atherton Uplands CU Carbine Uplands BK Bellenden-Kerr/Bartle-Frere TU Thornton Uplands FU Mt. Finnegan Uplands EU Elliot Uplands KU Kirrama Uplands LU Lamb Uplands MT Malbon-Thompson Uplands HU Halifax Uplands TL Thornton Lowlands Hinch Hinchinbrook Island WU Windsor Uplands CC Cairns-Cardwell Lowlands ML Mossman Lowlands LE Lee Uplands SU Spec Uplands BL Bloomfield-Helenvale Lowlands IL Ingham Lowlands CL Cooktown Lowlands BM Black Mountain corridor TV Townsville Lowlands MF McAlister Foothills Upland > 300m What processes gave rise to this pattern?

6 Surrogacy is asymmetric! How can we improve prediction of small, low dispersal species? Insects P=0.245 p=0.008 p=0.021 p=0.021 Plants P=0.036 Vertebrates p=0.020 Snails P=0.213 (Moritz et al. 2001)

7 Modelled distribution of rainforest under variable Pleistocene/Holocene climates predicts refugia BMC Pollen record: Kershaw et al Spatial modeling: (Graham et al. 2006; PNAS)

8 Patterns of endemic species richness suggest late Quaternary rainforest contraction => local extinction 6 1. Irregularly shaped subregions have fewer rainforest species (Williams & Pearson 1997) 2. More stable subregions have higher species richness (Graham et al. 2006) -.4Endemic Species Richness Rainforest Shape

9 Effects of past climate change on habitat distribution and diversity High diversity & local endemism High diversity Low diversity Past Multiple refugia Current Past Single refuge

10 Improving prediction of biodiversity: Using paleomodeling + genetics to predict rainforest refugia Hugall et al. 2002, PNAS

11 Paleomodeling predicts fine-scale diversification among refugia in C. ornatus (Hoskin, Tonione & Moritz) HI 20mm n=36 mtdna n=4 Nuclear n=7 HI n=15 n=3 n=3 N n=3 n=3 n=10 n=4 n=4 n=14 n=72 n=3 North Hinchinbrook Upland Lowland South SouthCentral n=24 n=3 n=15 n=56 refugia n=6 n=11 n=9 upland Malbon Thompson Significant support values 16S ML tree (n=361; 512 bp): GTR+I+G chosen as best model by ModelTest. Outgroup rooted. NJ clustering of Da among populations (n=361; 1153 bp): midpoint rooted 24mm

12 Comparative phylogeography: variable responses in space & time Hugall et al. 02 Phylogeographic supertree; Cameron et al, in review

13 The Wet Tropics Suture Zone: formed by Holocene expansion from major northern and central refugia Cophixalus exiguus/aenigma Litoria nannotis Carphodactyl us laevis Hypsilurus boydii Eulamprus tigrinus Saproscincu s czechuri Carphodactylus laevis Saproscincus lewisi/basiliscus Nyctimystes dayi Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae Litoria genimaculata, L. rheocola, Saltuarius cornutus Bettongia tropica, Temnoplectron L. genimaculata reyi/politulum Carlia rubrigularis, Lampropholis coggeri, Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis, Austrochaperina fryi/robusta Cophixalus ornatus (4) Litoria nannotis, G. bellendenkerens is Hybridization Admixture for mtdna Parapatry for mtdna

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15 Conservation planning: strategy 1. Select areas to maximise representation of viable populations of endemic species historically isolated areas 2. Add areas to ensure connectivity and maintain secondary contacts (suture zone) 3. Within these areas maximise representation of environmental/habitat gradients

16 Conservation values Species & lineages Summary of conservation values for the Wet Tropics fauna (after Moritz 2002) Lineages only Suture zone

17 What can be done? Impending warming climate change & predictions of catastrophic extinction Williams et al What can past responses tell us about likely effects of future climate change?

18 Can paleomodeling improve biodiversity prediction in other tropical hotspots ATL Plio-pleistocene climate cycles have strongly affected species and genetic diversity in the AWT Can this approach work in analogous systems? AWT => Brazilian Atlantic Forest Orme et al Nature: Avian hotspots

19 Paleomodeling of Atlantic Forest predicts northern refugia HISTORICAL STABILITY AREAS ATLANTIC FOREST NARROWER DEFINITION Pernambuco refuge S. Francisco river Bahia refuge Doce river HISTORICAL STABILITY AREAS ATLANTIC FOREST BROADER DEFINITION Pernambuco refuge S. Francisco river Bahia refuge Doce river Carnaval & Moritz 2008 J. Biogeography

20 The Central Corridor is predicted to have higher species & genetic endemism birds mammals STABILITY AREAS UNDER NARROWER DEFINITION STABILITY AREAS UNDER BROADER DEFINITION butterflies bamboos woody plants

21 A B C Pernambuco refuge Bahia refuge Species-level paleomodels predicts spatial patterns of genetic diversity in Atlantic Forest frogs 7% 5.4% 5.6% % 7.8% São Paulo refuge 4% 1.3% 1.2% (Carnaval et al. submitted) Sth expansion area H. albomarginatus H. semilineatus H. faber

22 Historical biogeography & bidiversity prediction Reveals processes underlying current biodiversity distribution and improves prediction Understanding how rainforest biota responded to past climate change will improve prediction of future sensitivity Both will increase effectiveness of urgent conservation planning effort