The Cairngorms Economy: Clusters for Growth

Transcription

1 Cairngorms Economic Forum The Cairngorms Economy: Clusters for Growth Richard Scothorne, Rocket Science 7 th November 2013

2 Developing the local economy What is distinctive about the Cairngorms economy? What are the main clusters? What are the trends? How can local businesses be supported? How can we develop the wider economy?

3 What is distinctive? istinctive sectors Cairngorms National Park Agriculture & forestry Fish farming Energy extractive Other mining and quarrying Food, drink, tobacco Textiles Leather Wood Paper Fuels Chemicals Rubber & plastics Minerals Metals Machinery Electrical Vehicles Other manufacture Electricity, gas, water Construction Retail & wholesale Hotels & catering Transport & comms Finance usiness services & home ownership Government Education Health Other services Domestic services Interpretation The scale on the chart shows salience a measure constructed by comparing the size of an industry in the Park with its size nationally. A figure of 0.1 would indicate 10 per cent bigger than might be expected by national norms and -0.1 would mean 10 per cent smaller. For more distinctive industries the formula compounds up, so that 0.4 means 50 per cent bigger and 0.7 means double. The peak figure of 1.9 shown for wood products actually means more than 6 times the national norm. Agriculture and forestry has a salience of 2.8, meaning nearly 17 times national norms. Source: DREAM Detailed Regional Economic Accounting Model Ref: Z/Dream09/TT/ CairngormPiefromTT/salience

4 What is distinctive? Distinctive industries in the Park Alcoholic beverages Forestry Agriculture Wood and wood products Other mining and quarrying Soft drinks and mineral waters Structural metal products Hotels, catering, pubs etc Recreational services Fishing Letting of dwellings Other service activities Metal forging, pressing, etc Fish and fruit processing Agricultural machinery Plastic products Retail distribution Social work activities Construction Membership organisations nec Owning and dealing in real estate Education Health and veterinary services Other land transport Motor trade GVA salience* Figures shown * The scale on shows salience constructed by the size of an i Park with its si A figure of 0.1 indicate '10 pe than might be national norm would mean 1 smaller. For m industries the compounds up means 50 per and 0.7 means peak figure of alcoholic beve means more th the national n Source: DREA Ref: Dream09 CairngormTT9

5 A very special economy Information industries 150 Other services and activities 1300 Cluster structure of Park employment Other production and manufacture 200 Forest 300 Public sector, admin, health and education 1550 Tourism 4050 Home ownership and construction 550 Whisky and drink 100 Food & Agriculture 1150 Source: DREAM based on BRES Ref: G:\PROJECTS\P262 Cairngorm NP update\nomis Cairngorm Envelope employees xlsx

6 Cluster structure (GVA) Cluster structure of the Park economy ( mn GVA, 2006) Other services and activities, 62 Tourism Whisky and drinks Forest Food and agriculture Publishing and music Other production and manufacture Home ownership and construction Public sector: admin, health and educn Other services and activities Tourism, 115 Public sector: admin, health and educn, 60 Source: DREAM Ref:D09/TT/clusterd/cnpclus For details of allocation of GVA to clusters see text Whisky and drinks, 19 Forest, 11 Home ownership and construction, 71 Other production and manufacture, 16 Food and agriculture, 40 Publishing and music, 4

7 A very special economy Information industries 150 Other services and activities 1300 Cluster structure of Park employment Other production and manufacture 200 Forest 300 Public sector, admin, health and education 1550 Tourism 4050 Home ownership and construction 550 Whisky and drink 100 Food & Agriculture 1150 Source: DREAM based on BRES Ref: G:\PROJECTS\P262 Cairngorm NP update\nomis Cairngorm Envelope employees xlsx

8 Jan 2008 May 2008 Sep 2008 Jan 2009 May 2009 Sep 2009 Jan 2010 May 2010 Sep 2010 Jan 2011 May 2011 Sep 2011 Jan 2012 May 2012 Sep 2012 Jan 2013 May 2013 Sep 2013 Jan 2014 May 2014 Sep 2014 Jan Scottish GVA (GDP) Index, 2009= Shape of the economy. The Scottish economy through the recession Source DREAM monthly interpolations from Scottish Government index Ref: E:\DATA\SGDP\scotgdpcontiNEW.xlsx monthchart (long) A'double dip'?... and then triple? If trends had continued... 15% A massive dip: had growth continued at the 2.7% rate of , the Scottish GDP index would now havereached 120.

9 Growing employment 9,400 jobs in the Park: increase of 400 jobs or 4.5% since our last Report (2008)

10 Growing population Projected population of Cairngorms National Park Projection Actual Source: GROS datazone data and DREAM people Ref Z/data/popn/ Dream people/ Cairngormpro/projtot

11 Jun-83 May-84 Apr-85 Mar-86 Feb-87 Jan-88 Dec-88 Nov-89 Oct-90 Sep-91 Aug-92 Jul-93 Jun-94 May-95 Apr-96 Mar-97 Feb-98 Jan-99 Dec-99 Nov-00 Oct-01 Sep-02 Aug-03 Jul-04 Jun-05 May-06 Apr-07 Mar-08 Feb-09 Jan-10 Dec-10 Nov-11 Oct-12 Sep-13 Number claiming jobseekers' allowance Falling unemployment Cairngorms National Park Claimant Unemployed Monthly claimants Seasonally adjusted Underlying Trend Raw data: ONS, Crown Copyright Adjustment and trend: cogentsi Ref F:\server \DATA\Emp\Unemp\SA\ Cairngorm datazone.xlsx

12 Jun-83 May-84 Apr-85 Mar-86 Feb-87 Jan-88 Dec-88 Nov-89 Oct-90 Sep-91 Aug-92 Jul-93 Jun-94 May-95 Apr-96 Mar-97 Feb-98 Jan-99 Dec-99 Nov-00 Oct-01 Sep-02 Aug-03 Jul-04 Jun-05 May-06 Apr-07 Mar-08 Feb-09 Jan-10 Dec-10 Nov-11 Oct-12 Sep-13 Number claiming jobseekers' allowance Falling unemployment Cairngorms National Park Claimant Unemployed Monthly claimants Seasonally adjusted Underlying Trend Raw data: ONS, Crown Copyright Adjustment and trend: cogentsi Ref F:\server \DATA\Emp\Unemp\SA\ Cairngorm datazone.xlsx

13 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Number claiming jobseekers' allowance Falling unemployment 240 Cairngorms National Park Claimant Unemployed Monthly claimants Seasonally adjusted Underlying Trend Raw data: ONS, Crown Copyright Adjustment and trend: cogentsi Ref F:\server \DATA\Emp\Unemp\SA\ Cairngorm datazone.xlsx 80 60

14 some weaknesses Education one of the faster growing parts of the global economy: Local FE/HE presence brings significant return in terms of retaining young people and helping people enhance skills, and attracting new kinds of visitors and employees Public transport particularly significant because of West/East connections and widening access Growing significance of broadband not just about access but speed cf competitors

15 What can you do with clusters? Identify gaps/weak components and aim to fill them/strengthen them Identify weak or non-existent linkages and build them Create cluster wide approaches Measure and benchmark against other places

16 MARKETS Very strong Strong Cairngorms Tourism Cluster Medium Weak UPGRADING & INNOVATIVE INSTITUTIONS Sophisticated Libraries Crafts Boats Special retailing Forest RELATED & SUPPORTING INDUSTRIES Clothes retailing Sports clubs &c Hunting Scheduled Air Travel Agents Tour Operator Conferenc es Hotels Tour Guides Camp sites Car rental Other accomm odation Buses Trains Youth Hostels Taxis Event Catering Holiday villages Nature reserves CORE OF CLUSTER Licensed Restos Takeaway Food Museums & history Sports facilities Unlicensed Restos Gambling Pubs & bars Licensed Clubs COGENT STRATEGIES INTERNATIONAL LTD 1993 & 2013 z/methods/clusters/cluster map INFRASTRUCTURE & INFRASERVICES Less sophisticated DIRECT FINAL

17 Coppicing, branches and small stems MARKETS Cairngorms Forest Cluster CORE OF CLUSTER Nurseries Support services RELATED & SUPPORTING INDUSTRIES Farming Logging Forestry Sawmilling Board manufacture Pulping Fence & pallet manufacture Energy conversion (power, CHP) Pulp Boards Paper manufacture Joinery Manufacture Furniture manufacture Printing Paper product manuf. Packaging Construction Investment Consumption Other industries Pelleting Key Green arrow heads show industries with a distinctly strong presence in the Cairngorms National Park. White arrows indicate industries with little or no presence in the Park. Ref: P217/flowchart COGENT STRATEGIES INTERNATIONAL LTD 1993 & 2012 z/methods/clusters/cluster map Rail transport Burning INFRASTRUCTURE & INFRASERVICES Road transport

18 MARKETS Very strong Strong Cairngorms Food Cluster Medium Weak Universities UPGRADING & INNOVATIVE INSTITUTIONS Research institutes Colleges Distribution channels Sophisticated Ag mchnry manufg Landscaping Food mchnry manuf Refrigerat ion Packaging prods Vets Agricultural machinery wholsalers Ad agenci es Food machinery whlsalers Packing Farming Meat, fish proc & prods Other food proc Biscuits, confection ery Bakeries Other food service Unlicensed restaurants Event catering Takeaway food Supermarkets & convenience stores Meat wholesale Mail order Clubs Florists Pubs & bars Head Offices RELATED & SUPPORTING INDUSTRIES Water CORE OF CLUSTER Licensed restaurants Green grocers Special food whlsale Bakery shops Butchers Delis, etc CAP, CFP Industry assocs Legisl ation Trans port Less sophisticated INFRASTRUCTURE & INFRASERVICES COGENT STRATEGIES INTERNATIONAL LTD 1993 & 2013 z/methods/clusters/cluster map DIRECT FINAL

19 Cairngorms Construction Cluster (Core) Project origination House building Joinery Plumbing Electrical installatn Estate agents Private letting & property mngmt Steel struc tures Archi tects Civil eng g projects Road &c bldg Timber & building whlsle Trade plumbers merchnts Building specialties Painting Factors & property mngmt Social housing DIY etc stores Manuf plastic ware Office & shop building Landscpe & mngmt CORE OF CLUSTER COGENT STRATEGIES INTERNATIONAL LTD 1993 & 2012 z/methods/clusters/cluster map

20 So? A positive story on the economy which has proved resilient Can use cluster maps to identify diversification opportunities What else? Attracting investment? A great place for getting the support small businesses need? Business infrastructure (transport/communications)

21 The significance of smaller businesses Number of data units by employee sizeband Cairngorms National Park 69% 18% 9% 5% Figures show the percentage of statistical data units (a measure of businesses which is similar to the number of workspaces) with the staff numbers in the following four categories:. 1-4 employees Scotland 64% 17% 10% 9% 5-10 employees employees 25+ employees Lochaber 64% 19% 11% 6% Source: Annual Business Inquiry workplace analysis Ref: P240/CompanySizeband/ DataUnitsChart

22 Quick overview Build on strengths (clusters and educational resources) Target and attract investment which enhances the Park Keep/attract young people Develop the right infrastructure Help start ups and indigenous business grow and ensure they can get the right skills

23 Cairngorms Economic Forum The Cairngorms Economy Clusters for Growth Richard Scothorne, Rocket Science 7 th November 2013