Input-Output Accounting

Transcription

1 Input-Output Accounting UNSD SEEA Training of Trainers Seminar July 7-10, 2014, New York Joe St. Lawrence Statistics Canada

2 The Economy and The Environment -Natural Resources -Ecosystem Services Stocks The Economy Flows Expenditures -Residuals 2

3 Sectors SNA view Industries Final demand Assets Financial and produced assets, opening balance Industrial output of goods and services Sectors Wastes Commodities 3 Industrial intermediate demand Final demand Gross fixed capital formation Other changes in volume & holding gains/losses on financial & produced assets Financial and produced assets, closing balance

4 Flow Accounting United Nations, 2012, System of Environmental-Economic Accounting: Central Framework (white cover draft), New York. 4

5 Flow Accounting United Nations, 2012, System of Environmental-Economic Accounting: Central Framework (white cover draft), New York. 5

6 Integration the IO tables U F q 473 primary 473 primary V g 6

7 Integration the common denominator α = E/g α = E / g 7

8 Integration the IO model Basic identity: supply = demand q + inv - + m = u + fd + x + inv + By substituting for market share (D=V/q) and technology (B=U/g), we get: g = (I - DB) -1 Df Allows an estimate of the gross production (g) required from each industry to satisfy a given final demand (f) based on pre-defined relationships of market-share (D) and technology (B) 8

9 Sample results attribution to demand g* = (I - DB) -1 Df pe 1 α * 1 g* Greenhouse Gas Emissions (carbon dioxide equivalents) attributable to household purchases and consumption, 2002 kilotonnes % Indirect emissions Motor vehicles, parts & repairs 5, % Furniture and household appliances 3, % = Other durable goods 3, % Clothing and footwear 4, % Other semi-durable goods 5, % Food and non-alcoholic beverage 38, % Motor fuels and lubricants 15, % Electricity 43, % Natural Gas 7, % Other fuels 2, % Other non-durable goods 10, % Gross rent (imputed and paid) 14, % Restaurants & hotels 15, % Other services 39, % Sub total, indirect emissions 209, % Direct emissions Heating, lighting and appliances 41, % Motor fuels and lubricants 69, % Sub total, direct emissions 111, % Total GHG emissions attributable to households 321, % 9

10 Sample results time series 10

11 Sample results direct and indirect intensities (multipliers) Direct plus indirect energy intensity by industry, Industry α * = (I - DB) -1 1 Crop and animal production Forestry and logging Fishing, hunting and trapping Support activities for agriculture and forestry Oil and gas extraction Coal mining Metal ore mining Non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction Electric power generation, transmission and distribution Natural gas distribution, water and other systems Residential building construction Non-residential building construction Transportation engineering construction Oil and gas engineering construction Electric power engineering construction Communication engineering construction Other engineering construction Repair construction Other activities of the construction industry Animal food manufacturing Sugar and confectionery product manufacturing Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufactu Dairy product manufacturing Meat product manufacturing Seafood product preparation and packaging Miscellaneous food manufacturing Soft-drink and ice manufacturing Breweries

12 Numerical example USE (U) farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising

13 Numerical example USE (U) farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising MAKE (V) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising farms mines food manuf other manuf services

14 Numerical example USE (U) farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising Final Demand MAKE (V) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising farms mines food manuf other manuf services

15 Numerical example USE (U) farms mines food manuf. other manuf. services cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising Final Demand MAKE (V) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising farms mines food manuf other manuf services Σ g Σ q

16 Numerical example B (U/g) farms mines other food manuf. manuf. services cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising Σ

17 Numerical example B (U/g) farms mines other food manuf. manuf. services cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising Σ D (V/q) cattle iron ore milk cheese fuel steel cars advertising farms mines food manuf other manuf services Σ

18 Numerical example (I-DB)ˉ¹ farms mines other food manuf. manuf. services farms mines food manuf other manuf services meaning? dollars of output from industry at row to deliver (to final demand) a dollar of output from industry at column 18

19 Numerical example (I-DB)ˉ¹ farms mines other food manuf. manuf. services farms mines food manuf other manuf services g=(i-db)ˉ¹de g meaning? dollars of output from industry at row to deliver (to final demand) a dollar of output from industry at column 19

20 Numerical example (I-DB)ˉ¹ farms mines other food manuf. manuf. services farms mines food manuf other manuf services decompostion of row one of (I-DB)ˉ¹ times column one of De (Row 1 of (I-DB)ˉ¹ times column of De) 1.11 * ($1.11 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from farms, so to get of final demand we need farms to produce 47.5 dollars of output) Plus: 0.01 * ($0.01 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from mines, so to get of final demand we need farms to produce 7 dollars of output) Plus: 0.65 * ($0.65 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from food manufacturers, so to get of final demand we need farms to produce dollars of output) Plus: 0.08 * ($0.08 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from other manufacturers, so to get 170,94 of final demand we need farms to produce 14.3 dollars of output) Plus: 0.12 * 0 ($0.12 of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from services, so to get 0.00 to final demand we need farms to produce 0 dollars of output) De farms only g=(i-db)ˉ¹de So, to deliver all of final demand, farms must produce 210 dollars of gross output 20

21 Sample results direct and indirect intensities (multipliers) Direct plus indirect energy intensity by industry, Industry α * = (I - DB) -1 1 Crop and animal production Forestry and logging Fishing, hunting and trapping Support activities for agriculture and forestry Oil and gas extraction Coal mining Metal ore mining Non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying Support activities for mining and oil and gas extraction Electric power generation, transmission and distribution Natural gas distribution, water and other systems Residential building construction Non-residential building construction Transportation engineering construction Oil and gas engineering construction Electric power engineering construction Communication engineering construction Other engineering construction Repair construction Other activities of the construction industry Animal food manufacturing Sugar and confectionery product manufacturing Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty food manufactu Dairy product manufacturing Meat product manufacturing Seafood product preparation and packaging Miscellaneous food manufacturing Soft-drink and ice manufacturing Breweries

22 Numerical example Intensity indicators emissions per unit of output (direct emissions intensity) a farms mines food manufother manuservices (I-DB)ˉ¹ farms mines food manufother manuservices co2/g farms mines food manuf alpha inverse other manu services So, a*(i-db)ˉ¹ for row of a times column 1 of (I-DB)ˉ¹ is * 1.11 (1.11 dollars of production from farms is required to deliver a dollar of production from farms. Farms emit.05 CO2 per dollar of output,so in terms of emissions this is:) plus 0.8 * 0.74 (0.74 dollars of production from mines is required to deliver a dollar of production from farms. Mines emit.8 CO2 per dollar of output, so in terms of emissions this is:) plus 0.3 * 0.04 (0.04 dollars of production from food manuf. Is required to deliver a dollar of production from farms. Food manuf. Emit.3 CO2 per dollar of output, so in terms of emissions: plus 0.4 * 0.13 (0.13 dollars of production from other manuf. Is required to deliver a dollar of output from farms. Other manuf. Emit.4 CO2 per dollar of output, so in terms of emissions:) plus 0.1 * 0.01 (0.01 dollars of production from services is required to deliver a dollar of output from farms. Services emit.1 CO2 per dollar of output, so in terms of emissions this is:) SUM This is the total emissions required (direct plus indirect) from all industries per dollar of output from farms. 22

23 Questions? Joe St. Lawrence Environment Accounts and Statistics Comptes et statistique de l'environnement R.H. Coats Building Immeuble R.-H.-Coats / Floor Étage 25 M Statistics Canada 100 Tunney's Pasture Driveway, Ottawa ON K1A 0T6 Statistique Canada 100, promenade Tunney's Pasture, Ottawa ON K1A 0T6 Joe.St.Lawrence@statcan.gc.ca Telephone Téléphone Facsimile Télécopieur Government of Canada Gouvernement du Canada 23