Indirect Taxes in Multisectoral Macroeconomic Models

Transcription

1 Indirect Taxes in Multisectoral Macroeconomic Models A Contribution from the Inforum group Maurizio Grassini Università di Firenze Italy

2 (Some) Matrices behind a Macroeconomic Multisectoral Model Supply and Use matrices Domestic and imported flows Symmetric Input-output matrices Margin matrix Excise Tax Matrix ad valorem tax flows (EU VAT Matrix) Bridge Matrices (Consumption, Investments)

3 Tax Flows in IO tables Let us consider intermediate flows in terms of : q the real flow p the corresponding price s the amount of excise tax t the rate of the ad valorem tax

4 INTERMEDIATE FLOWS AT BASIC PRICES Let us consider an intermediate consumption element X ij at basic prices where: X ij = q ij *p i q ij is the input i in sector j in real term p i is the basic price of input i

5 INTERMEDIATE FLOWS AT BASIC PRICES PLUS EXCISE TAX Now we have where: X ij = q ij *p i + s ij s ij is the amount of excise tax on q ij

6 The ad valorem Tax and Excise tax in the intermediate consumption flows Now, the intermediate consumption flow is where: X ij = q ij *p i *(+t ij )+ s ij or X ij =(q ij *p i + s ij )*( + t ij ) t ij is the ad valorem tax rate related to q ij *p i

7 Peeling off the IO table Reshaping the IO table thorough the removal of excise and ad valorem taxes

8 Excise tax flows in IO matrix CI CI CI FD Q q p + s q p + s q p + s c p + s q p + s + s + s + s 2 q p + s q p + s q p + s c p + s q p + s + s + s + s 3 q p + s q p + s q p + s c p + s q p + s + s + s + s VA VA VA q p q p q p II II II 2 3 qq qq qq

9 II i excise tax row sum of sector i qq i column sum of sector i II = s + s + s + s i i i2 i3 i qq = q p + II i i i i

10 IO table after the removal of the excise flows CI CI CI FD Q 2 3 q p q p q p c p q p 2 3 q p q p q p c p q p q p q p q p c p q p VA VA VA 2 3 IA IA IA IA 2 3 q p q p q p c

11 The removal of excise tax flows makes room for the excise tax row in the Value Added zone Where IA i = s i + s 2i + s 3 and IA c = s + s 2 + s 3 the excise tax on final demand components not necessarily recorded in IO tables

12 Ad valorem tax flows in IO matrix CI CI CI FD Q 2 3 q p q p q p c p ( + t ) q p + VATRS 2 3 q p q p q p ( + t ) c p ( + t ) q p + VATRS q p q p ( + t ) q p ( + t ) c p ( + t ) q p + VATRS VA VA VA 2 3 q p q p q p VATRS VATRS VATRS 2 3 TOT TOT TOT 2 3

13 Where VATRS stands for VAT Row Sum VATRS = c p t VATRS = c p t + q p t VATRS = c p t + q p t + q p t VAT = 0 VAT = q p t VAT = q p t + q p t c VAT = c p t + c p t + c p t

14 IO table when VAT flows are removed CI CI CI FD Q 2 3 q p q p q p c p q p 2 3 q p q p q p c p q p q p q p q p c p q p VA VA VA 2 3 VAT VAT VAT VAT 2 3 q p q p q p c

15 Basic prices from the Leontief s price equation p p p a a a a a a a a a v v v basic =

16 Price equation with excise tax (rates) a p + a p + a p + a α + a α + a α + v = p a p + a p + a p + a α + a α + a α + v = p a p + a p + a p + a α + a α + a α + v = p

17 Price equation with excise tax (rates) In the language of matrix algebra: p p p 2 3 excise = p p p 2 3 basic + a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a α α2 α3 Here the excise tax produces a clear tax schifting

18 Price equation with ad valorem taxes (rates) such as European VAT a p + a p + a p + v = p a p + a p + a p ( + t ) + v = p a p + a p ( + t ) + a p ( + t ) + v = p

19 Firms may not be entitled to full deduction Firms exempted from VAT have no right to deduct the VAT paid on their taxed purchases Some intermediate transactions may be allowed only for partial deduction Forfeit (or standardized ) systems The Agricultural special system Government Agencies

20 Price equation with ad valorem taxes (rates) such as European VAT In the language of matrix algebra: p p p 2 3 vat = a a a 2 3 a a a ( + t ) a a ( + t ) a ( + t ) v v v 2 3 The ad valorem tax shifting is not additive to the basic price solution

21 Long run Price formation with ad valorem and excise tax in sector j p = a p ( + t ) + a α + v j n n ij i ij ij ij i= i= j

22 Indirect tax flows in the Intermediate Consumption Table of the Italy IO Matrix Some statistics Excise taxes are recorded in 73% flows Ad valorem taxes are recorded in 64% flows

23 Indirect Taxes between Intermediate Consumption and Final Demand Intermediate Consumption is the tax base of: 4% of the ad valorem taxes 45% of the excise taxes

24 VAT in the Intermediate Consumption This ad valorem tax applied by the European Union Member States has been designed to be an indirect tax on Personal Consumption Expenditure. So called VAT impurities extend VAT tax base to intermediate consumption flows About VAT impurities, see Bardazzi,Grassini,Longobardi (99) Value-Added Taxes and Other Indirect Taxes in EEC Country Model. The Italian Case, Economic Systems Research, n., pp

25 Main VAT bases in Intermediate Consumption 82% of the VAT tax yield comes from 5 sectors out of 59 (Eurostat standard Input-output EU country matrices) Financial intermediation services Insurance and pension funding services Services auxiliary to financial intermediation Public administration and defence services Health and social work services

26 Main VAT bases in Intermediate Consumption Being mostly industry specific, the treatment of an ad valorem tax such as the European VAT deserves a a special attention in modelling price equations

27 After all The construction of time series of excise and ad valorem tax matrices and the design of indirect tax scenarios is a challenging task up to the macroeconomic multisectoral model builder.

28 Thank you for your attention Maurizio Grassini