Workshop on MCCOE Radar Meteorology /Climatology in Indonesia. Segel Ginting Wanny K. Adidarma

Transcription

1 Workshop on MCCOE Radar Meteorology /Climatology in Indonesia BPPT, 28 Februari 2013 JAKARTA FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (J-FEWS) Segel Ginting Wanny K. Adidarma JCP (Joint Cooperation Program) Indonesia the Netherland

2 Flood in Jakarta Not a new issue; First report from 1640; Urban development on the higher grounds leaving the natural lakes as part of the urban landscape with a natural role to retain run-off during heavy downpour in the area and in the upstream areas of the rivers; Retention capacity: 1350 ha retention area of these lakes in 1640, presently less than half is available; Agricultural lands vs. housing and industrial estates; Irrigation system ~ drainage canals. Source : Jan T.L. Yap, Capacity Building Specialist Collaborative Knowledge Network CKNet Indonesia

3 The Flood Disaster Strategy The Department of Regional Development and Environmental of the Organisation of American States argues that The most effective approach to reducing the long-term impact of natural hazards is to incorporate natural hazard assessment and mitigation activities into the process of integrated development planning and investment project formulation and implementation. Combinations of structural and non-structural flood mitigation measures have been shown to alleviate the effects of floods in a cost-effective way. Source : Jan T.L. Yap, Capacity Building Specialist Collaborative Knowledge Network CKNet Indonesia

4 The Flood Disaster Strategy Why not giving the disaster management approach a chance? Rather than Being drown in an ocean of muddy water, silt, garbage, and debt Source : Jan T.L. Yap, Capacity Building Specialist Collaborative Knowledge Network CKNet Indonesia

5 Penanganan Masalah Banjir (Flood Control) Philosophy to keep floods away from people and people away from floods, creating harmony Normative Approaches Structural method Non Structural Method Construction Non Structural Method FEWS Development

6 RISK MANAGEMENT AGAINST CRISIS MANAGEMENT

7 Concept of Flood Early Warning System Using Delft-FEWS System Detection Warning Response Forecasting BMKG, PusAir, Deltares, KNMI Simulation Some Key Questions Could floods and droughts be predicted with more lead time? Could the predictions be more accurate?

8 Delft-FEWS Concept data feeds import Delft-FEWS import validation transformation / interpolation data hierarchy general adapter export / report administration (data, forecasts) viewing (data, forecasts) archiving Performance Indicator models Delft-FEWS is not Model Delft-FEWS is Open Shell for Forecasting export & dessimination

9 Source : Cart Barrett, 2011 In JFEWS to provide timely warnings to communities at risk will need: 1.Rainfall monitoring, estimation and forecast BMKG/BPPT 2.Software which could combine and manage various data sources with different formats spatially or temporally FEWS/DEWS (Deltares) 3.Software which could change the rainfall to runoff, flood and inundation area or drought index PUSAIR

10 Jakarta Flood Early Warning System GLOBAL Flood Forecasting Model Rainfall Radar (BBPT) Input Radar Output Telemetri

11 Input data for run-off analysis Data Feed NWP Satellite Radar Telemetry Flood Lead Time accuration decreases River discharge Flood forecasting Time Present condition Detections Run-off analysis Warning Response

12 Flood Forecasting Jakarta

13 Flood Forecasting Jakarta Water level Katu Lampa Famous Man Source: BBWS Cilicis

14 Model Development

15 Jakarta-FEWS Water Level and Dishcarge SOBEK SOBEK is a powerful modelling suite for flood modelling, flood forecasting, optimisation of drainage systems, control of irrigation systems, sewer overflow design, river morphology, salt intrusion and surface water quality Inundation Area The programs represent phenomena and physical processes in an accurate way in one dimensional (1D) network systems and on two dimensional (2D) horizontal grids Travel Time

16 Jakarta Flood Modelling Concept Calculation of runoff using Sacramento model (SOBEK-RR) Hydrologic routing of runoff towards main river system using Muskingum method (SOBEK-RR) Hydraulic routing through river system towards sea (SOBEK-1D) Hydraulic routing through floodplain (SOBEK-2D)

17 Jakarta Flood Modelling Rain and Tide Flood Simulation Output Pumps scenario Tidal gates Operation SOBEK Field condition Flood extent

18 Macro Drainage System of Jakarta

19 Jakarta Flood Modelling Schematic

20 SOBEK RR Modeling Sacramento Physically based conceptual model Semi-distributed approach: catchment is divided into segments

21 Pembagian Sub DAS untuk Pemodelan Hidrologi Sub Basin : 449 Weir : 22 Orifice : 32 Pump Station : 33

22 Calibration and Validation Modeling

23 Calibration on Flood Event 2007

24 Validation on Flood Event 2008

25 East Banjir Canal Without EBC Jakarta Area Inundation Decreases : 10 % With EBC EBC Area Inundation Decreases : 32 %

26 Flood Modeling Update Activities -2007: Flood Hazard Map Jakarta (FHM1) -2009: Flood Hazard Map Jakarta (FHM2) -2011: Java Coastal Dafence Strategic (JCDS) -2011: Jakarta Flood Readiness Scan (JFRS) -2012: Flood Management Information System (FMIS)

27 Jakarta-FEWS Data Feed Seawater Level Prediction -Astronomical Tide -South China Sea Model Numerical Weather Prediction -ACCESS-A - ACCESS -T - CCAM - ECMWF Def - GFS Remote Sensing Satelitte -TRMM Radar - BMKG - BPPT Ground Station -Telemetry station - Automatic Weather Station

28 Seawater Level Prediction -South China Sea Model ECMWF GFS - Astronomical Tide ACCESS T

29 Numerical Weather Prediction Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes or weather satellites as inputs to the models (Wikipedia, Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) Global Forecast System (GFS)

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31 Data Feed

32 Output JFEWS Flood Information

33 Rainfall Forecast from CCAM 3 days forward

34 Rainfall Forecast from ACCESS T 3 days forward

35 Rainfall Forecast from ECMWF 10 days forward

36 Rainfall Forecast and Monitoring

37 Rainfall Forecast and Monitoring

38 Spatial display: ECMWF wind forecast

39 Output: storm surge forecast

40 Storm surge forecast Jakarta

41 Discharge and Water Level Forecast

42 Discharge and Water Level Forecast

43 Radar Monitoring

44 Inundation Area

45 Thank you for your kind attention