Webinar Series for Comprehensive Plan Updates. School Districts: More than just an affected jurisdiction
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1 Webinar Series for Comprehensive Plan Updates School Districts: More than just an affected jurisdiction Presented by Tara Beard, AICP March 9, 2017
2 Goals for this webinar City planning staff are more aware of the ways that their work and school district plans intersect. City planning staff are inspired to forge longterm connections with school district staff Comprehensive plan updates include features that make it easier for school districts to review and comment
3 Today s discussion Forecasts and planning School district planning 101 Metropolitan Council and local governments Schools and housing Jurisdictional mismatch Planning considerations
4 Forecasts and planning School district planning 101
5 Why school districts forecast Anticipating future enrollment is how school districts: manage school capacity needs, including school closures or new school construction
6 Real world example!
7 Why school districts forecast Anticipating future enrollment is how school districts: manage school capacity needs, including school closures or new school construction facilities planning to support district-wide needs
8 How school districts forecast Most school districts hire a consultant to project enrollment numbers Forecasts generally look out 5-10 years Projections tend to assume the continuation of historic patterns The consultant is expected to review comprehensive plans and other local policies
9 Real world example!
10 How school districts forecast Different types of housing yield different amounts of school aged children.25 to.33 students.1 to.2 students
11 Forecasts and planning Regional and local forecasts
12 Why the Metropolitan Council forecasts The Council forecasts population, household and job growth at the regional and local level to: update the 30-year regional development guide every ten years (Thrive MSP 2040) for provide local governments with forecasts that inform their 30-year comprehensive plans that are also updated every ten years
13 How the Metropolitan Council forecasts Regional forecasts: - use an economic competitiveness model that predicts migration flows - predict a population gain of over 800,000 by 2040 Metropolitan Council s Regional Forecast to 2040
14 How the Metropolitan Council forecasts Local forecasts: - use a land use model that considers changing demographics and their impact on housing preferences - consider land availability, local real estate prices, and competition of surrounding areas - are developed in partnership with local governments and planners
15 Forecasts in summary Strengths Issues Uncertainties Metropolitan Council Holistic approach that considers competition outside of and within the region to predict household growth and change Many moving parts in local allocation; many assumptions needed Long range time horizon causes great uncertainty School Districts Fairly reliable for short-term predictions over the next 5 years Minimally considers socioeconomic change New housing focus limits certainty
16 Schools and housing Deeply connected institutions
17 The relationship between housing and schools Schools impact the housing market
18 Real world example!
19 The relationship between housing and schools City policies may consider school district needs, rightly or wrongly
20 Real world example!
21 The relationship between housing and schools Subsidized affordable housing and student characteristics City 1 City 2 School District boundaries New affordable housing
22 Real world example! City 1 City 2 School District boundaries New affordable housing
23 The relationship between housing and schools School integration and fair housing
24 Jurisdictional mismatch A big challenge
25 City and school district boundaries don t line up!
26 School districts may contain portions of 8 or more cities! Osseo School District: Brooklyn Center Brooklyn Park Corcoran Dayton Maple Grove Osseo Plymouth Rogers
27 Cities may contain portions of four or more school districts! City of Brooklyn Center Anoka-Hennepin School District Brooklyn Center School District Osseo School District Robbinsdale School District
28 Addressing jurisdictional mismatch Your community page in the local planning handbook includes a list of all affected school districts in your community
29 Example: Golden Valley
30 Golden Valley, continued Hopkins School District Robbinsdale School District Housing Type Land Use (acres) Singlefamily* Multifamily** Manufactured Undeveloped/ agricultural land All other land uses Total land 1, ,811 3,237 1, ,266 3,323 *Includes detached and attached **Includes mixed-use residential
31 Planning considerations What now?
32 Planning considerations Reach out to your school districts: Who is a good point of contact? What are some important topics to discuss? - Future facility needs - Local planning and permitting processes
33 Real world example!
34 Planning considerations Reach out to your school districts: Who is a good point of contact? What are some important topics to discuss? - Future facility needs - Local planning and permitting processes - Demographic changes and housing types
35 Planning considerations Reach out to your school districts: Housing development information in real time
36 Real world example!
37 Planning considerations Reach out to your school districts: Housing development information in real time - School district representation on the planning commission - Automatic s with planning or council agendas - Regular meetings between staff
38 Planning considerations Comprehensive plan update opportunities: Get input early Look for community engagement opportunities Get a unique perspective on housing needs
39 Real world example!
40 Planning considerations Comprehensive Plan update opportunities: Additional topics that intersect - Transportation - Safety - Recreation - Environmental Services - Sustainability
41 Planning Considerations Comprehensive Plan update opportunities: Future land use Test future land use scenarios in the context of affected school districts Provide future land use information by affected school districts in your draft plan Provide local context about future residential land uses
42 Testing future land use impacts Using GIS School district shapefiles on your community page School district shapefiles are also available at Minnesota Geospatial Commons: Shapefiles include district and attendance boundaries
43 Testing future land use impacts Mapping Services: eligible communities: Bayport Hilltop New Trier Bethel Lake St. Croix Beach Newport Carver Lakeland Norwood Young America Centerville Landfall Nowthen Circle Pines Lauderdale Osseo Cologne Lexington Randolph Dayton Loretto St. Bonifacius Elko New Market Maple Plain Vermillion Hamburg Mayer Watertown Hampton New Germany Willernie
44 Questions? Tara Beard, AICP Housing Policy Analyst
45 Upcoming Events Workshop: Introduction to Comprehensive Plans and Equity Presented by GARE Tuesday, March 21, 2017 Workshop: Affordable Housing - Tools and Financing Mechanisms Presented by Jonathan Stanley Thursday, April 13, 2017 Webinar: Population Estimates Presented by Matt Schroeder Thursday, April 20, 2017 *Look for the 2017 PlanIt Schedule of Events on the website
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Less Tran Line. Less Contribution ,906, ,002, ,908, ,997, , ,162,659 24,678, ,841,400
Values by 01 001 2 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 001 3 00 1,906,150 130,002,288 131,908,438 0 3,997,139 748,640 127,162,659 24,678,741 151,841,400 01 001 6 00 2,981,433 243,969,027 246,950,460 0 41,473,679 25,167,925
Less Fiscal Increment/ Value Capture. Less Increment
Fiscal / Tax Tax 01 001 2 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 001 3 00 2,422,218 200,118,859 202,541,077 0 5,642,007 1,548,570 0 195,350,500 25,091,468 220,441,968 01 001 6 00 4,160,832 429,799,636 433,960,468 0
Less Fiscal Increment/ Value Capture. Less Increment
Fiscal / Tax Tax 01 001 2 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 001 3 00 2,542,426 200,233,359 202,775,785 0 5,565,993 1,563,483 0 195,646,309 25,091,468 220,737,777 01 001 6 00 4,162,855 434,660,189 438,823,044 0
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