Past and future climate development in Longyearbyen, Svalbard
|
|
- Reginald Marsh
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Past and future climate development in Longyearbyen, Svalbard Eirik J. Førland 1,2 and Ketil Isaksen 1 1). Norwegian Meteorological Institute 2). Norwegian Centre for Climate Services Svalbard Science Conference 2017, Fornebu, 8 November 2017
2 Several landslides and avalanches last summer and autumn on Spitsbergen - related to heavy rainfall, but what about the influence of the record high thaw depth? Longyeardalen, Carolinedalen, is the Norwegian Steintippdalen, government's key advisor in construction and property affairs, building Larsbreen, commissioner, property manager and property developer. Statsbygg owns and operates several buildings and constructions in Svalbard, and wants to take into consideration consequences of long-term climate changes in the region. Statsbygg has commisioned parts of this study 30. juni 2016 Foto: John Christian Nygaard 2
3 SVALBARD AIRPORT: WINTER TEMPERATURE Past development: Linear trends (DJF): : 0,35 C/decade : 2,23 C/decade Average temperature (DJF): : -14,0 C Future development: (from to ) Different emissions scenarios Different models
4 SVALBARD AIRPORT: ANNUAL TEMPERATURE Annual: (Average:- 5,9 C) Linear trend: : 0,28 C/dec : 1,26 C/dec Seasonal trends ( C/dec), Winter: 0,35 Spring: 0,41 Summer: 0,14 Autumn: 0,26
5 REASONS FOR WARMING AT SVALBARD Presentation yesterday by Ketil Isaksen: The recent warming on Svalbard and its relation to atmospheric circulation (AC) and sea ice cover (JGR, 2016) Sites: Svalbard Airport, Ny-Ålesund, Isfjord Radio, Hornsund, Barentsburg Changes in frequencies of AC types have a minor role on recent warming: Contribute ~10% annually and ~ 25% in winter A major part of the warming is attributed to changes in air mass characteristics (higher temperatures) and mainly linked to a few AC types What causes changes in air mass characteristics? Regional influence of reduced sea-ice in seas surrounding Spitsbergen Local effects of reduced wintertime ice cover on the fjords outside stations Regional influence of increased sea surface temperatures Other mechanisms for large-scale Arctic warming
6 From global emissions to climate projections for Svalbard Global emission scenarios (RCPs) Global climate model Dynamical downscaling: Regional climate model (Arctic CORDEX) Empirical statistical downscaling Bias-adjustment of temperature and precipitation Local projections
7 FUTURE TEMPERATURE Projected annual temperatures for Longyearbyen during for RCP8.5. Red and grey shading indicate ensemble spread of GCMs resp. RCMs (Arctic CORDEX). White line indicates simulation (MPI-ESM-LR) used in MET dynamical downscaling. Black line is observations from Svalbard Airport, red line is median for GCM simulations, Blue and green lines are MET simulations (CCLIM) with spatial resolution 25 and 2,5 km.
8 FUTURE TEMPERATURE, Longyearbyen Estimated temperature change (degc) in Longyearbyen from to Estimates are based on results from GCM, RCM and ESD-simulations. Values are given for three emission scenarios (RCPs). RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Annual 3,6 6,5 9,2 Winter (DJF) 5,7 9,1 13,4 Spring (MAM) 3,7 6,7 9,7 Summer (JJA) 1,1 2,6 4,0 Autumn (SON) 4,2 6,7 9,4
9 PRECIPITATION Average precipitation (mm) at Svalbard Airport Annual Winter (DJF) Spring (MAM) Summer (JJA) Autumn (SON) Highest 1-day rainfall (mm) Svalbard Airport Ny-Ålesund 43,2 5.Aug ,0 30.Jan ,7 8.Nov ,8 8.Nov ,2 9.Feb ,0 1.Dec ,0 5.Mar ,0 12.Mar ,1 11.Jul ,0 9.Oct 2002
10 ANNUAL SNOW AMOUNT AS FRACTION OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION
11 FUTURE PRECIPITATION (Based on Arctic CORDEX projections) Annual and seasonal precipitation will increase towards 2100 Projected annual precipitation based on median values for RCP8.5: + 38 % (RCP4.5: +28 % and RCP2.6:+21 %) There will be an increase in precipitation intensity as well as in number of days with heavy rainfall During the winter half year the number of events with rainfall will triple compared to present conditions
12 SNOW All simulations indicate reduced length of snow season towards Wintertime almost all precipitation will still fall as snow in inland areas West coast of Spitsbergen: Larger fraction of wintertime precipitation as rain Generally, the average seasonal snow depth will decrease, but may increase wintertime in some inland areas Modelled maximum snow depth (meters) for present (left) and future (middle) climate. Right: Changes in max snow depth. Results based on MET-RCM 2,5 km simulations, RCP8.5
13 PERMAFROST: Janssonhaugen, Svalbard Mean annual ground temperature Since 2000 ground temperature at 20 m depth has increased by 0,8 C/decade Future: Permafrost degradation is modeled by the end of the century in low-lying coastal areas
14 Uncertainty in projections is connected to: Natural variations Simplifications and errors in climate models Emission scenarios Specific for the Svalbard region: Limited climate series for model validation Biased sea-ice modelling Projections indicate continued warming up to 2100: Annual: 4 to 9 C Winter: 6 to 13 C Permafrost degradation in low-lying coastal areas
15 Norwegian Centre for Climate Services Climate report: «Svalbard 2100» (Spitsbergen, Bjørnøya, Hopen, Oceans) Assessment: Past-Present-Future climate Deadline: 2018 Topics: Atmosphere Hydrology incl. snow and glaciers Permafrost, avalanches Ocean climate incl. sea ice Sea level Contributors: MET, NVE, UniR IMR: Institute for Marine Research NERSC: Nansen Center NGI: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute NP: Norwegian Polar Institute Kartverket: Norw. Mapping Authority Univ in Bergen and Oslo UNIS: Univ Centre in Svalbard
16 THANK YOU! Report available at Norwegian Centre for Climate Services:
The Norwegian Centre for Climate Services - NCCS
The Norwegian Centre for Climate Services - NCCS Extremes Products - Dissemination Eirik J. Førland, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway Impact assessment consultation workshop, Budapest,
More informationAnnex I to Target Area Assessments
Baltic Challenges and Chances for local and regional development generated by Climate Change Annex I to Target Area Assessments Climate Change Support Material (Climate Change Scenarios) SWEDEN September
More informationResearch Article Temperature and Precipitation Development at Svalbard
Advances in Meteorology Volume 2011, Article ID 893790, 14 pages doi:10.1155/2011/893790 Research Article Temperature and Precipitation Development at Svalbard 1900 2100 Eirik J. Førland, 1 Rasmus Benestad,
More informationMozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Mozambique C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationTRENDS AND CHANGE IN CLIMATE OVER THE VOLTA RIVER BASIN
TRENDS AND CHANGE IN CLIMATE OVER THE VOLTA RIVER BASIN VOLTRES PROJECT WORK PACKAGE 1a: CLIMATE KEY RESULTS E. Obuobie, H.E. Andersen, C. Asante-Sasu, M. Osei-owusu 11/9/217 OBJECTIVES Analyse long term
More informationSuriname. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Suriname C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationClimate change and variability -
Climate change and variability - Current capabilities - a synthesis of IPCC AR4 (WG1) Pete Falloon, Manager Impacts Model Development, Met Office Hadley Centre WMO CaGM/SECC Workshop, Orlando, 18 November
More informationMETreport Climate indicators for Norwegian travel behaviour; - in present and future climate
METreport No. 2/2018 ISSN 2387-4201 Climate Climate indicators for Norwegian travel behaviour; - in present and future climate Anne Solveig H. Andersen Eirik J. Førland Hans Olav Hygen Jostein Mamen METreport
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
More informationMalawi. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Malawi C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationChanging Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed
Changing Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed David Bosch USDA-ARS, Tifton, GA Jeff Arnold ARS Temple, TX and Peter Allen Baylor University, TX SEWRU Objectives 1. Project changes
More informationWhat is happening to the Jamaican climate?
What is happening to the Jamaican climate? Climate Change and Jamaica: Why worry? Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona Part 1 RAIN A FALL, BUT DUTTY
More informationMULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF A SOUTH INDIAN RIVER BASIN
MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROLOGY OF A SOUTH INDIAN RIVER BASIN P.S. Smitha, B. Narasimhan, K.P. Sudheer Indian Institute of Technology, Madras 2017 International
More informationChiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC
Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC This threat overview relies on projections of future climate change in the Mekong Basin for the period 2045-2069 compared to a baseline of 1980-2005.
More informationThe importance of long-term Arctic weather station data for setting the research stage for climate change studies
The importance of long-term Arctic weather station data for setting the research stage for climate change studies Taneil Uttal NOAA/Earth Systems Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado Things to get out
More informationEnhanced Confidence in Regional Climate Projections from Dynamical Down Scaling
Enhanced Confidence in Regional Climate Projections from Dynamical Down Scaling 5th Nordic Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Norrköping, Sweden Jens H. Christensen & Dominic Matte Niels Bohr Institute,
More informationSouthern New England s Changing Climate. Raymond S. Bradley and Liang Ning Northeast Climate Science Center University of Massachusetts, Amherst
Southern New England s Changing Climate Raymond S. Bradley and Liang Ning Northeast Climate Science Center University of Massachusetts, Amherst Historical perspective (instrumental data) IPCC scenarios
More informationEvidence for Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon and SA CORDEX Results from RegCM
Evidence for Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon and SA CORDEX Results from RegCM S K Dash Centre for Atmospheric Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Based on a paper entitled Projected Seasonal
More informationWater Stress, Droughts under Changing Climate
Water Stress, Droughts under Changing Climate Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) Outline of the presentation
More informationChris Lennard. Downscaling seasonal forecasts over South Africa
Chris Lennard Downscaling seasonal forecasts over South Africa Seasonal forecasting at CSAG Implemented new forecast system on a new computational platform...lots of blood, still bleeding United Kingdom
More informationClimate Change Scenarios in Southern California. Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences
Climate Change Scenarios in Southern California Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences Overview Climatology of Southern California Temperature and precipitation
More informationUPPLEMENT A COMPARISON OF THE EARLY TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY DROUGHT IN THE UNITED STATES TO THE 1930S AND 1950S DROUGHT EPISODES
UPPLEMENT A COMPARISON OF THE EARLY TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY DROUGHT IN THE UNITED STATES TO THE 1930S AND 1950S DROUGHT EPISODES Richard R. Heim Jr. This document is a supplement to A Comparison of the Early
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
More informationGridded observation data for Climate Services
Gridded observation data for Climate Services Ole Einar Tveito, Inger Hanssen Bauer, Eirik J. Førland and Cristian Lussana Norwegian Meteorological Institute Norwegian annual temperatures Norwegian annual
More informationClimate change and variability -
Climate change and variability - Current capabilities - a synthesis of IPCC AR4 (WG1) Pete Falloon, Manager Impacts Model Development, Met Office Hadley Centre WMO CaGM/SECC Workshop, Orlando, 18 November
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through
More informationSEASONAL VARIABILITY AND PERSISTENCE IN TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS FOR ICELAND
SEASONAL VARIABILITY AND PERSISTENCE IN TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS FOR ICELAND Haraldur Ólafsson 1,2 and Ólafur Rögnvaldsson 2,3 1 University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland 2 Bergen School of Meteorology, Geophysical
More informationProjected changes in rainfall and temperature over Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) in different scenarios. In Support of:
Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) in different scenarios In Support of: Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research, and Economic
More informationIntroduction. Observed Local Trends. Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones. Projections for the Philippines. Temperature Rainfall
PAGASA-DOST ntroduction Observed Local Trends Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones Projections for the Philippines Temperature Rainfall Climate Change ssue ncreased use of fossil fuel Global Warming
More informationZambia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Zambia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationMulti-model approach for projecting future climate change conditions in Central Vietnam
2011/03/03 at the ICSS-Asia 2011 conference Multi-model approach for projecting future climate change conditions in Central Vietnam Thanh NGO-DUC, Van Tan PHAN, Trung NGUYEN QUANG Department of Meteorology
More informationClimate Change RMJOC Study Summary
Climate Change RMJOC Study Summary Erik Pytlak Weather and Streamflow Forecasting Bonneville Power Administration Portland, OR IPCC: International Panel on Climate Change Established by the United Nations
More informationSupplementary appendix
Supplementary appendix This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. We post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Lowe R, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Petrova D, et al.
More informationUpdate on Climate Science. Professor Richard Betts, Met Office
Update on Climate Science Professor Richard Betts, Met Office The science of climate change Crown copyright Met Office Prof Richard Betts Head of Climate Impacts Research Crown copyright Met Office Observing
More informationClimate Change in the Northeast: Past, Present, and Future
Climate Change in the Northeast: Past, Present, and Future Dr. Cameron Wake Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS) University of New Hampshire 62nd Annual Meeting of the Northeastern
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño
More informationEC-PORS III Research. Sodankylä, February Developing a Polar Prediction System
EC-PORS III Research Sodankylä, February 2012 Developing a Polar Prediction System Polar Prediction System - Status 1. EC-PORS I (Oct. 2009) -> initial discussions 2. WWRP/THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop,
More information"STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR "
"STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR 2001 2010" ESPERANZA O. CAYANAN, Ph.D. Chief, Climatology & Agrometeorology R & D Section Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical
More informationSt Lucia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles St Lucia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationOperational Practices in South African Weather Service (SAWS)
Operational Practices in South African Weather Service (SAWS) Abiodun Adeola, Hannes Rautenbach, Cobus Olivier 2018/06/12 1 Overview Seasonal Forecasting System at SAWS How to Interpret Seasonal Forecasts
More informationHow reliable are selected methods of projections of future thermal conditions? A case from Poland
How reliable are selected methods of projections of future thermal conditions? A case from Poland Joanna Wibig Department of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Łódź, Outline 1. Motivation Requirements
More informationClimate Change Scenarios 2030s
Climate Change Scenarios 2030s Ashwini Kulkarni ashwini@tropmet.res.in K Krishna Kumar, Ashwini Kulkarni, Savita Patwardhan, Nayana Deshpande, K Kamala, Koteswara Rao Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,
More informationCLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL HYDROLOGY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US: Evidence of Changes, Model Projections, and Remote Sensing Approaches
CLIMATE CHANGE AND REGIONAL HYDROLOGY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US: Evidence of Changes, Model Projections, and Remote Sensing Approaches Michael A. Rawlins Dept of Geosciences University of Massachusetts OUTLINE
More informationQuestions about Empirical Downscaling
Questions about Empirical Downscaling Bruce Hewitson 1, Rob Wilby 2, Rob Crane 3 1, South Africa 2 Environment Agency, United Kingdom 3 Penn State University & AESEDA, USA "downscaling and climate" "dynamical
More informationBuenos días. Perdón - Hablo un poco de español!
Buenos días Perdón - Hablo un poco de español! Introduction to different downscaling tools Rob Wilby Climate Change Science Manager rob.wilby@environment-agency.gov.uk Source: http://culter.colorado.edu/nwt/site_info/site_info.html
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: More climate models! Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review
More informationFuture Weather in Toronto and the GTA
Future Weather in Toronto and the GTA Due to Climate Change Electrical Sector Meeting, Nov. 23 rd, 2011 Christopher Ll. Morgan, PhD Toronto Environment Office Contents 2 Introduction (Why We Did What We
More informationImpacts of the climate change on the precipitation regime on the island of Cyprus
Impacts of the climate change on the precipitation regime on the island of Cyprus Michael Petrakis, Christos Giannakopoulos, Giannis Lemesios Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development,
More informationA R C T E X Results of the Arctic Turbulence Experiments Long-term Monitoring of Heat Fluxes at a high Arctic Permafrost Site in Svalbard
A R C T E X Results of the Arctic Turbulence Experiments www.arctex.uni-bayreuth.de Long-term Monitoring of Heat Fluxes at a high Arctic Permafrost Site in Svalbard 1 A R C T E X Results of the Arctic
More informationThe Climate of Oregon Climate Zone 5 High Plateau
105 E55 Unbound issue i". 9 13oes not circulate CZe Special Report 917 May 1993 The Climate of Oregon Climate Zone 5 Property of OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY Library Serials Corvallis, OR 97331-4503 Agricultural
More informationClimate Change Impact Assessment on Long Term Water Budget for Maitland Catchment in Southern Ontario
215 SWAT CONFERENCE, PURDUE Climate Change Impact Assessment on Long Term Water Budget for Maitland Catchment in Southern Ontario By Vinod Chilkoti Aakash Bagchi Tirupati Bolisetti Ram Balachandar Contents
More informationSupplement of Future snowfall in the Alps: projections based on the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models
Supplement of The Cryosphere, 12, 1 24, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1-2018-supplement Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Supplement of Future
More informationSeasonal Hydrometeorological Ensemble Prediction System: Forecast of Irrigation Potentials in Denmark
Seasonal Hydrometeorological Ensemble Prediction System: Forecast of Irrigation Potentials in Denmark Diana Lucatero 1*, Henrik Madsen 2, Karsten H. Jensen 1, Jens C. Refsgaard 3, Jacob Kidmose 3 1 University
More informationAPPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES
APPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering For presentation at Workshop on Regional Climate Research NCAR
More informationFaisal S. Syed, Shahbaz M.,Nadia R.,Siraj I. K., M. Adnan Abid, M. Ashfaq, F. Giorgi, J. Pal, X. Bi
ICTP NCP International Conference on Global Change 15-19 November, 2006, Islamabad Climate Change Studies over South Asia Region Using Regional Climate Model RegCM3 (Preliminary Results) Faisal S. Syed,
More informationWill a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
More informationThe 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms David Stephenson & Laura Dawkins Exeter Climate Systems
The 21st century decline in damaging European windstorms David Stephenson & Laura Dawkins Exeter Climate Systems Acknowledgements: Julia Lockwood, Paul Maisey 6 th European Windstorm workshop, Reading,
More informationWP 4 Testing Arctic sea ice predictability in NorESM
WP 4 Testing Arctic sea ice predictability in NorESM Jens Boldingh Debernard SSPARSE Kick-off meeting 08.11.2016 Norwegian Meteorological Institute Background Inherent coupled problem Time-frame relevant
More informationLocal Climate Changes: present and future
Local Climate Changes: present and future Rodica Rodica Tomozeiu Tomozeiu Lucio Lucio Botarelli Botarelli www.arpa.emr.it www.arpa.emr.it Global climate changes Increase Increase of of the the global global
More informationSierra Weather and Climate Update
Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of
More informationFuture precipitation in the Central Andes of Peru
The International Conference on Regional Climate (ICRC)-CORDEX 2016 Future precipitation in the Central Andes of Peru Gustavo De la Cruz 1 Delia Acuña Azarte 1 1 National Meteorology and Hidrology Service
More informationA downscaling and adjustment method for climate projections in mountainous regions
A downscaling and adjustment method for climate projections in mountainous regions applicable to energy balance land surface models D. Verfaillie, M. Déqué, S. Morin, M. Lafaysse Météo-France CNRS, CNRM
More informationHydro-meteorological Analysis of Langtang Khola Catchment, Nepal
Hydro-meteorological Analysis of Langtang Khola Catchment, Nepal Tirtha R. Adhikari 1, Lochan P. Devkota 1, Suresh.C Pradhan 2, Pradeep K. Mool 3 1 Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Tribhuvan
More informationImpacts of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse
Impacts of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse Martijn Booij University of Twente,, The Netherlands m.j.booij booij@utwente.nlnl 2003 in the Meuse basin Model appropriateness Appropriate model
More informationAnnual September Arctic Sea ice extent
Annual September Arctic Sea ice extent 1979-2012 Annual September Arctic Sea ice extent 1979-2012 Notes: The month of September has the minimum sea ice cover each year. Passive microwave instruments on
More informationFine-scale climate projections for Utah from statistical downscaling of global climate models
Fine-scale climate projections for Utah from statistical downscaling of global climate models Thomas Reichler Department of Atmospheric Sciences, U. of Utah thomas.reichler@utah.edu Three questions A.
More informationImpact of snow initialisation in coupled oceanatmosphere
NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Impact of snow initialisation in coupled oceanatmosphere seasonal forecasts Yvan J. ORSOLINI NILU - Norwegian Institute
More informationCharacterization of the Present-Day Arctic Atmosphere in CCSM4
Characterization of the Present-Day Arctic Atmosphere in CCSM4 Gijs de Boer 1, Bill Chapman 2, Jennifer Kay 3, Brian Medeiros 3, Matthew Shupe 4, Steve Vavrus, and John Walsh 6 (1) (2) (3) (4) ESRL ()
More informationThe Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research: an overview
A PRESENTATION OF THE The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research: an overview The aim of the Bjerknes Centre is to understand and quantify the climate system for the benefit of society Tore Furevik, Ph.D.
More informationEnvironment and Climate Change Canada / GPC Montreal
Environment and Climate Change Canada / GPC Montreal Assessment, research and development Bill Merryfield Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) with contributions from colleagues at
More informationCuba. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Cuba C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationAntigua and Barbuda. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Antigua and Barbuda C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
More informationThe Arctic Energy Budget
The Arctic Energy Budget The global heat engine [courtesy Kevin Trenberth, NCAR]. Differential solar heating between low and high latitudes gives rise to a circulation of the atmosphere and ocean that
More informationAverage temperature ( F) World Climate Zones. very cold all year with permanent ice and snow. very cold winters, cold summers, and little rain or snow
P r e v i e w Look carefully at the climagraph of Mumbai, India. What is the wettest month (or months) in Mumbai? What is the driest month (or months) in Mumbai? What effects might this city s climate
More informationGrenada. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationSeasonality of the Jet Response to Arctic Warming
Seasonality of the Jet Response to Arctic Warming Bryn Ronalds Adv: Elizabeth Barnes CVCWG Meeting: March 2, 27 The story: Midlatitude jets are fundamental to weather and climate It is generally agreed
More informationClimate observations and projections for the Eeyou Marine Region
www.ouranos.ca Climate observations and projections for the Eeyou Marine Region Ross Brown 1, Carl Barrette 2, Diane Chaumont 3, Patrick Grenier 3, Anne Frigon 3, René Roy 3, Jean-Pierre Savard 3 1. Climate
More informationThree main areas of work:
Task 2: Climate Information 1 Task 2: Climate Information Three main areas of work: Collect historical and projected weather and climate data Conduct storm surge and wave modeling, sea-level rise (SLR)
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationDownscaling & Record-Statistics
Empirical-Statistical Downscaling & Record-Statistics R.E. Benestad Rasmus.benestad@met.no Outline! " # $%&''(&#)&* $ & +, -.!, - % $! /, 0 /0 Principles of Downscaling Why downscaling? Interpolated Temperatures
More informationChapter 3 East Timor (Timor-Leste)
Chapter 3 East Timor (Timor-Leste) 49 3.1 Climate Summary 3.1.1 Current Climate Despite missing temperature records for Dili Airport, it is probable that over the past half century there has been a warming
More informationI C P A C. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017
Bulletin Issue October 2017 I C P A C IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Climate Bulletin, Climate Review for September 2017 1. INTRODUCTION This bulletin reviews the September 2017
More informationEXPERT MEETING TO ASSESS PROGRESS MADE IN THE PROCESS TO FORMULATE AND IMPLEMENT ANATIONAL ADAPTATION PANS (NAPs)
EXPERT MEETING TO ASSESS PROGRESS MADE IN THE PROCESS TO FORMULATE AND IMPLEMENT ANATIONAL ADAPTATION PANS (NAPs) LESOTHO'S EXPERIENCE MOKOENA FRANCE MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND METEOROLOGY OUTLINE Key Risks
More informationGerman Arctic Expeditions
German Arctic Expeditions 2015-2016 FARO/ASSW, 2016, Fairbanks Dirk Mengedoht (Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany) Dirk Mengedoht, AWI Logistics 2015 Polarstern Arctic Expeditions 2015 Leg Start End Mission
More informationArctic Adaptation Research Considerations and Challenges
Arctic Adaptation Research Considerations and Challenges Dr Grete K. Hovelsrud, Research Director CICERO- Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Norway Many Strong Voices Stakeholder
More informationObserved Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty
Observed Climate Variability and Change: Evidence and Issues Related to Uncertainty David R. Easterling National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina Overview Some examples of observed climate
More informationFuture extreme precipitation events in the Southwestern US: climate change and natural modes of variability
Future extreme precipitation events in the Southwestern US: climate change and natural modes of variability Francina Dominguez Erick Rivera Fernandez Hsin-I Chang Christopher Castro AGU 2010 Fall Meeting
More informationRegional climate modelling in Croatia: from basic research to products
Regional climate modelling in Croatia: from basic research to products Ivan Güttler ivan.guettler@cirus.dhz.hr Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) Copernicus User Workshop in Croatia
More informationBjerknes centre for climate research, Centre for climate dynamics, and the Research school in climate dynamics
WWW.BJERKNES.UIB.NO Bjerknes centre for climate research, Centre for climate dynamics, and the Research school in climate dynamics Tore Furevik!"#$%"&'(%&!)*+,$"&-.#,+*/0&,$&$1"&23"%4#"0&!"#$%"5&& 6#*7"%0*$.&('&2"%8"#&
More informationClimate Data: Diagnosis, Prediction and Projection
Climate Data: Diagnosis, Prediction and Projection Paul Bowyer (paul.bowyer@hzg.de) Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) Boram Lee (blee@wmo.int) World Meteorological Organization (WMO), World Climate
More informationSouth Eastern Australian Rainfall in relation to the Mean Meridional Circulation
South Eastern Australian Rainfall in relation to the Mean Meridional Circulation Bertrand Timbal, Hanh Nguyen, Robert Fawcett, Wasyl Drosdowsky and Chris Lucas CAWCR / Bureau of Meteorology Long-term SEA
More informationClimate Summary for the Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership
Climate Summary for the Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership Compiled by: Linda Joyce 1, Marian Talbert 2, Darrin Sharp 3, John Stevenson 4 and Jeff Morisette 2 1 USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station
More informationAn Update on Snowpack Projections for Alaska: Chugach Results. Jeremy Littell, USGS Alaska Climate Science Center
An Update on Snowpack Projections for Alaska: Chugach Results Jeremy Littell, USGS Alaska Climate Science Center Why snow? That depends. Photo: F. Kovalcheck. h0p://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/chugach/about-
More informationICRC-CORDEX Sessions A: Benefits of Downscaling Session A1: Added value of downscaling Stockholm, Sweden, 18 May 2016
ICRC-CORDEX Sessions A: Benefits of Downscaling Session A1: Added value of downscaling Stockholm, Sweden, 18 May 2016 Challenges in the quest for added value of climate dynamical downscaling: Evidence
More informationICPAC. IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, May 2017
s` ICPAC Bulletin Issue June 2017 Issue Number: ICPAC/02/302 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, May 2017 For referencing within this bulletin, the Greater Horn of Africa
More informationProduction and use of CORDEX projections a Swedish perspective on building climate services in practice
Production and use of CORDEX projections a Swedish perspective on building climate services in practice Erik Kjellström 1, Lars Bärring 1, Grigory Nikulin 1, Carin Nilsson 2, Gustav Strandberg 1 1 Rossby
More informationSimulation of the regional climate model REMO over CORDEX West-Asia Pankaj Kumar, Daniela Jacob
Simulation of the regional climate model REMO over CORDEX West-Asia Pankaj Kumar, Daniela Jacob Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Climate Service Center, Hamburg, Germany Orography
More informationClimate Change Models: The Cyprus Case
Climate Change Models: The Cyprus Case M. Petrakis, C. Giannakopoulos, G. Lemesios National Observatory of Athens AdaptToClimate 2014, Nicosia Cyprus Climate Research (1) Climate is one of the most challenging
More informationLinkages between Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude
Linkages between Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude weather patterns Response of the wintertime atmospheric circulation to current and projected Arctic sea ice decline Gudrun Magnusdottir and Yannick
More informationHAIDA GWAII CLIMATE ASSESSMENT 2010 Special Report for MIEDS Franc Pridoehl
HAIDA GWAII CLIMATE ASSESSMENT 2010 Special Report for MIEDS Franc Pridoehl INTRODUCTION Climatic conditions have varied considerably on Haida Gwaii over the past centuries and millennia (Hebda 2007).
More information