Regional climate modelling in Croatia: from basic research to products

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Regional climate modelling in Croatia: from basic research to products Ivan Güttler ivan.guettler@cirus.dhz.

1 Regional climate modelling in Croatia: from basic research to products Ivan Güttler Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) Copernicus User Workshop in Croatia 14th November 2018, Zagreb, Croatia

2 Introduction

3 GCM > RCM > impact models Source: Olsson et al. (2016) Hydrological Climate Change Impact Assessment at Small and Large Scales: Key Messages from Recent Progress in Sweden. Climate, 4(3), 39; doi: /cli

4 RCMs: increasing horizontal resolution Source:

5 GCM vs. RCM: difference in the sign of the projections Ensemble average of the projected percentage change in Alpine summer precipitation. a f, The changes are for June August for three different future time slices compared with the reference period , and for the GCM and RCM ensembles : GCM ensemble, (a); GCM ensemble, (b); GCM ensemble, (c); RCM ensemble, (d); RCM ensemble, (e); RCM ensemble, (f). RCP8.5. Source: Giorgi et al. (2016) Enhanced summer convective rainfall at Alpine high elevations in response to climate warming. Nature Geoscience, doi: /NGEO2761

6 GCM vs. RCM: increasing realism of the extremes simulations Daily precipitation intensity empirical probability distribution functions (PDFs) (frequency versus intensity of daily precipitation events, ) for all the model experiments (black color for the driving GCMs, blue color for the RCM44, and red color for the RCM11) and the EURO4M-APGD observations (green color) interpolated onto the 0.11 grid. Source: Torma et al. (2015) Added value of regional climate modeling over areas characterized by complex terrain Precipitation over the Alps. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:

7 RCM: basic research

8 RCMs: systematic errors are the main limitation DHMZ RegCM3 (dx = 35 km) simulations RegCM3+EH5OM, RegCM3+ERA40 vs. CRU T2m DJF: winter JJA: summer Source: Branković Č, M Patarčić, I Güttler, L Srnec (2012) Near-future climate change over Europe and Croatia in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Clim. Res., 52,

9 RCMs forced by reanalysis vs. RCMs forced by GCM X axis: months (1-12) Y axis: stations along the Adriatic coast (1-13) FP6 ENSEMBLES RCM simulations (dx = 25 km) (RCMs+EH5OM) (RCMs+ERA40) T2m: Source: Branković Č, I Güttler, M Gajić-Čapka, 2013: Evaluating climate change at the Croatian Adriatic from observations and regional climate models simulations. Clim. Dyn., 41,

RCMs: model development slow but needed Implementation and evaluation of two planetary boundary layer schemes (Holtslag et al. 1990 vs. Grenier and Bretherton et al. 2001; Holt vs.

10 RCMs: model development slow but needed Implementation and evaluation of two planetary boundary layer schemes (Holtslag et al vs. Grenier and Bretherton et al. 2001; Holt vs. UW) in RegCM4 (dx = 50 km). Vertical profiles of air temperature T, water vapour mixing ratio qv and relative humidity RH in RegCM-Holt (EXP001) and RegCM-UW (EXP002) and ERA-Interim (Eastern Europe, ). Source: Güttler I, Č Branković, TA O'Brien, E Coppola, B Grisogono, F Giorgi, 2014: Sensitivity of the regional climate model RegCM4.2 to planetary boundary layer parameterisation. Clim. Dyn., 43(7),

11 RCMs vs. ERA-Interim reanalysis: 10-m wind DJF 10m wind speed JJA 10m wind speed Source: Belušić A, M Telišman Prtenjak, I Güttler, N Ban, D Leutwyler, C Schär, 2017: Near-surface wind variability over the broader Adriatic region: insights from an ensemble of regional climate models. Clim. Dyn., DOI: /s

12 RCMs simulated changes: 10-m wind JJA ensemble median and corresponding IQR (second row) of 99th percentile of wind speed in RCP8.5 scenario. The ensemble consists of 19 members, except for P3 which has 15 members. Relative differences for P1 (a, d), P2 (b, e) and P3 (c, f) compared to P0. P0: P1: P2: P3: Source: Belušić A, I Güttler, B Ahrens, A Obermann-Hellhund, M Telišman Prtenjak, 2018: Wind over the Adriatic Region in CORDEX Climate Change Scenarios. JGR: Atmospheres (accepted for publication)

13 Convection-permitting/resolving RCMs: new capabilities Source: Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S.,, Güttler, I.,, Srnec., L., (2018) A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean. Climate Dynamics (accepted for publication)

14 Some other current RCM research activities in Croatia Sarah Ivušić (DHMZ): skill of RCMs in simulating extreme weather events Renata Sokol Jurković (DHMZ): implementation of the advanced 2D bias-correction/adjustment method Slavko Radilović (University of Split): skill of RCMs in reproducing the observed temperature trends Iva Međugorac (University of Zagreb): can RCMs reproduce statistics of the storm surge events? Project ADIOS (PI: Ivica Vilibić, IZOR, Split): setting up past and future simulations using coupled ocean-atmosphere model (one of the activities) Project CroClimGoGreen (PI: Ivana Herceg Bulić, University of Zagreb): forcing urban climate model using boundary conditions from RCMs (one of the activities)

15 RCM: applied research & products

16 Applied research: T2m changes for the NIKP6 (2014) FP5 ENSEMBLES RCMs simulations forced by CMIP3 GCMs A1B scenario DJF: winter JJA: summer P1: P2: P3: Source:

17 Applied research: Precipitation changes for the NIKP6 FP5 ENSEMBLES RCMs simulations forced by CMIP3 GCMs A1B scenario DJF: winter JJA: summer P1: P2: P3: Source:

18 Responding to specific user requests (½) 2m air temperature time series of four 50-km Med-CORDEX (atmosphere only) RCM simulations over Pazin, Croatia. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

19 Responding to specific user requests (2/2) 2m relative humidity (6 UTC and 12 UTC) time series of five 12.5-km EURO-CORDEX SMHI RCA4 simulations over Platak, Croatia. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Major RCM modelling activities in Zagreb: summer 2016-summer 2017 Ministry of Environment and Energy dedicated project: Jačanje kapaciteta Ministarstva zaštite okoliša i energetike za prilagodbu

20 Major RCM modelling activities in Zagreb: summer 2016-summer 2017 Ministry of Environment and Energy dedicated project: Jačanje kapaciteta Ministarstva zaštite okoliša i energetike za prilagodbu klimatskim promjenama te priprema Nacrta Strategije prilagodbe klimatskim promjenama RCM modelling just one element of the project. More details available from the project web-page: Coordination between the project team, led by Eptisa Adria d.o.o., and MZOE, Srce and DHMZ. Regional climate model applied in this project: Climate analysis done by Čedo Branković, Lidija Srnec, Tomislav Stilinović and Ivan Güttler.

21 Set of RegCM4 simulations performed on VELEbit system at Srce dx=12.5 km; RCP4.5 & RCP8.5; RegCM4 + HadGEM2-ES (HIST; ) dx=50.0 km; RCP4.5 & RCP8.5; RCP2.6 ( ) dx=12.5 km; RCP4.5 & RCP8.5; RegCM4 + MPI-ESM-MR (HIST; ) dx=50.0 km; RCP4.5 & RCP8.5; dx=12.5 km; RCP4.5 & RCP8.5; RegCM4 + EC-EARTH (HIST; ) dx=50.0 km; RCP4.5 & RCP8.5; dx=12.5 km; RCP4.5 & RCP8.5; RegCM4 + CNRM-CM5 (HIST; ) dx=50.0 km; RCP4.5 & RCP8.5;

Applied research: T2m changes for the Draft of the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Ensemble mean of RegCM4 simulations forced by CMIP5 GCMs RCP4.

22 Applied research: T2m changes for the Draft of the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Ensemble mean of RegCM4 simulations forced by CMIP5 GCMs RCP4.5 scenario DJF: winter MAM: spring JJA: summer SON: autumn P1: P2: P3: Source:

Applied research: Precipitation changes for the Draft of the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Ensemble mean of RegCM4 simulations forced by CMIP5 GCMs RCP4.

23 Applied research: Precipitation changes for the Draft of the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Ensemble mean of RegCM4 simulations forced by CMIP5 GCMs RCP4.5 scenario DJF: winter MAM: spring JJA: summer SON: autumn P1: P2: P3: Source:

24 Data management plan (DMP) - repozitorij.meteo.hr - CC BY MZOE + Srce + DHMZ Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Domain: Croatia Frequency: daily Variables: pr, tas, tasmin, Access: free, web-based Estimated size: ~ 20 Gb EU 3-hr/6-hr most 2D free, web-based ~ 38 Tb EU 3-hr/6-hr/daily all 2D&3D free, special request ~ 220 Tb

25 RCM: what s next?

26 (Near) future of regional climate modelling Source:

27 Summary Regional climate models (RCM) have a growing community of developers and users. Usually takes a PhD to make all the mistakes and become a RCM expert. RCMs simulations are part of the climate service toolbox. Balance is needed between underselling and overselling the results. RCM methodology has potential for both development (regional earth system models (RESMs) and very high resolution RCMs) and applications (innovative use of simulated climate data). For the impact model studies, bias correction/adjustment step needed. This can t be done without high-quality & high-resolution climate observations. Thank you for your attention! Copernicus User Workshop in Croatia 14th November 2018, Zagreb, Croatia

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