MONITORING AND THE RESEARCH ON METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN CROATIA

Transcription

1 MONITORING AND THE RESEARCH ON METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN CROATIA K. Cindrić Kalin, I. Güttler, L. Kalin, D. Mihajlović, T. Stilinović Meteorological and Hydrological Service 1

2 overview Introduction Climate change in Croatia - observed trends in indices of extremes - expected changes from climate models Drought monitoring Final remarks - current activities and future work 2

3 Introduction Climate of Croatia - determined by its specific geographical position - modifiers: the Adriatic and the Mediterranean, the Dinarides, openness to the Pannonian plain (NE region)... 3

4 Economic losses from damages caused by natural hazards in Croatia ( ) OTHER 5% COMBINATION 2% FLOOD WILD 9% FIRE 6% EARTHQ UAKE 9% FROST 7% STORM, HAIL 23% DROUGHT 39% Economic losses (in percentages) due to natural hazards in Croatia during the period and average losses in the whole period (avg-last column) (Perčec Tadić et al., ACS 2014) Drought risk included in the national Risk assessment for natural and industrial hazards (2015) many governmental institutions particaped 4

5 Drought vulnerability map in Croatia Combination of slope map, solar irradiation, precipitation Cv, soil types and land cover classes Southern Adriatic and Eastern lowland most sensitive to drought - first version - improve e.g. economic losses Perčec Tadić et al. (ACS, 2014) 5

6 Climate change in Croatia trends in t and R amounts, indices of temperature and precipitation extremes: summer (SU) and frost days (FD) warm (Tx90%) and cold days (Tx10%) warm (Tn90%) and cold nights (Tn10%) warm (WSDI) and cold (CSDI) spell duration dry days (DD) consecutive dry days(cdd) moderate wet days (R75) and very wet days (R95) max 1 and 5 day precipitaiton amounts (Rx1d, Rx5d) simple daily intensty index (SDII) (Peterson et al ; WMO 2004; ) 6

7 t t min t max Trends in mean, max and min air temperature - positive trends in all seasons (weaker in SON) positive trend, stat. sig. negative trend, stat. sig. 7

8 Trends in temperature indices of extremes: -SUmmer and Frost Days - warm and cold days (Tx90%, Tx10%) -warm and cold nights (Tn90%, Tn10%) - Warm and Cold spell Duration Index positive trend, stat. sig. negative trend, stat. sig. pozsitive trend, stat. sig. negative trend, stat. sig. 8

9 Trends in - precipitation amount -decrease in JJA: Adriatic and mountains -increase in SON: Eastern lowland - Rx1d, Rx5d - SDII positive trend, stat. sig. negative trend, stat. sig. NIKP6,

10 positive trend, stat. sig. negative trend, stat. sig. Adriatic and mountains: decrease in wet (R75) and very wet days (R95) increase in dry spells (CDD) and number of dry days (DD) positive trend, stat. sig. negative trend, stat. sig. 10

11 Changes in the near future climate ( ) RegCM3 (ICTP Trieste) -the largest and spatially coherent near-future change in precipitation is projected to be in SON -increase in DD Patarčić et al. (Clim Res, 2014) RegCM3 ensemble-mean differences between future ( ; A2 scneario) and reference ( ) climate for seasonal precipitation. Areas with stat. sig. climate change at the 95% confidence level are enclosed by a thick red line. 11

12 Mean summer precipitation in EURO-CORDEX RCMs forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis vs. E-OBS v11 Period: RCMs interpolated to E-OBS grid (from ~0.11x0.11 deg to 0.25x0.25 deg) Some common systematic errors exists in all RCMs (e.g. dry bias over Slovenia) In progress: evaluation of the extremes and climate change signal estimates) 12

13 Drought monitoring - an increasing interest in developing methods for drought warning system in Croatia - Comprehensive drought early warning system should provide (Lincoln declaration, 2011): - drought monitor - an early warning of drought onset and it s intensity in timely manner - drought prediction compoment (to protect crops, fire risk, water supply... ) 13

14 DHMZ - drought monitoring started in precipitation amounts are used monthly scales (maps and plots): Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) precipitation ratio against normal difference from normal associated percentiles return periods 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 months daily scale: - cumulative precipitation amounts up to the date 14

15 Drought monitoring DHMZ web site: - daily and monthly updated DHMZ monthly bulletin - few months delay - meteorological and climate detailed analysis - dry/wet spells analysis - Standardized Precipitaiton Index 15

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17 YEAR MONTH STATION Cumulative precipitation amount (mm) in March 2016 and theoretical percentiles (2., 10., 25., 50., 75., 90. and 98.) curves from the period Peacock tail Theoretical percentiles (Juras, TAC 1994; Juras and Cindrić, HV 2009) 17

18 7-days ECMWF forecast provided - daily updated 18

19 When the month is over... R-RSR R/RSR SPI Percentile 19

20 Spatial distribution of SPI 20

21 Extremely dry and very hot December 2015 Snow Queen World Cup ski race in Croatia - canceled! 21

22 Extremely dry 2011/2012 Cindrić et al. (TAC 2014) 22

23 Drought forecasting ECMWF long-range ensemble seasonal forecasts employed to predict SPI ( , ~ 1000 cases) different combinations of observed and forecasted period are used (SPI1, SPI3, SPI3 comb, SPI6...) good skill, relatively strong signal worse skill for mountain areas worse skill for more extreme SPIs (-2,+2) 23

24 SPI1 < -1 SPI3 comb < -1 Brier Score and Brier Skill Score BS=.151 BSS= good reliability BS=.11 BSS=.52

25 - implement the SPEI Final remarks - operational forecast of SPI in DHMZ - modelling dry spells by extreme value theory - SPI connection with telleconections (NAO, EA/WR...) - much effort is to be done into research by integrating the meteorology with hydrology and agronomy 25

26 - drought is one of the major risks due to natural hazards in Croatia - Recognised by Croatian Science Foundation (HRZZ) - solve important national problems related to CC and related measures (energy sustainability, and mutual cooperation of different sectors) in order to develop a sustainable society Climate of the Adriatic REgion in its global context (CARE) - Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, Universitiy of Zagreb and DHMZ 26

27 Joint 6th Internatioanl Meeting on Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean (MetMed) and 5th Challenges in Meteorology (MI) February 2017, Zagreb, Croatia Thank you! 27