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1 Addressing future climate change information gaps and data needs in the Southeast Asia region through the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/CORDEX Southeast Asia Project Fredolin Tangang Project Leader, SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia Professor, School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Faculty of Science & Technology, National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia Adjunct Professor, Center of Regional Climate Change and Renewable Energy (RU-CORE), Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok, Thailand August 2017, Putrajaya International Convention Centre, Putrajaya, Malaysia
2 Addressing Climate Change & Its Impacts Human induced climate change is unequivocal (IPCC 2013) Adapting to climate change impact is crucial since the success of mitigation remains uncertain While mitigation is global in nature, adaptation is implemented locally Implementing adaptation measures on critical sectors (e.g. water resources) requires robust climatic information at the local scales Climate information varies temporally and spatially; Hence geospatial analysis is relevant Information on past and present climate is insufficient; Need to understand future climate under changing GHG emission scenarios; Climate modeling is required Future climate information is provided by GCM which operates at coarser resolution There is a need to refine this information to resolve complex topography, coastlines, local processes etc.; this is known as regional climate downscaling. Regional climate downscaling: Statistical Downscaling and Dynamical Downscaling
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4 Regional Climate Downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) vs. Regional Climate Model (RCM) CMIP3,5; Resolution km Resolution < 50 km RCPs
5 Critically lack of studies on impacts of climate change in Southeast Asia region Table 24.2 IPCC AR5 WGII The amount of information supporting conclusion regarding observed and projected impacts IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
6 CORDEX provides global coordination of Regional Climate Downscaling for improved regional climate change adaptation and impact assessment
7
8 CORDEX domains South Asia East Asia Southeast Asia
9 The Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID) / CORDEX Southeast Asia Project Fredolin Tangang Coordinator, CORDEX Southeast Asia 14 Countries, 20 Institutions 25 km x 25 km ~3yrs [Nov 2013 Dec 2017] Funded by APN and funds from individual countries; Second phase (
10 Thailand Philippines Lao PDR Indonesia SEACLID/CORDE X Southeast Asia Cambodia Malaysia Vietnam UK Australia Sweden South Korea Hong Kong Germany Japan
11 GCMs, RCMs, RCPs and Country Assignments Country GCM Institution & Country developed the GCM RCP RCM Vietnam CNRM-CM5 Centre national de Recherches Meteorologiques, France RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Philippines HadGEM2 Hadley Centre, UK RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Thailand MPI-ESM-MR Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Thailand EC-Earth EC-Earth consortium RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Indonesia CSIRO MK3.6 CSIRO, Australia RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Malaysia CanESM2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Canada RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Malaysia IPSL-CM5A-LR Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, France RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 Malaysia GFDL-ESM2M GFDL, USA RCP8.5, 4.5 RegCM4 South Korea HadGEM2-AO Hadley Centre, UKMO RCP8.5, 4.5 WRF Sweden CNRM-CM5 Centre national de Recherches Meteorologiques, France RCP8.5, 4.5 RCA3 Sweden HadGEM2-ES Hadley Centre, UKMO, UK RCP8.5,4.5 RCA3 Australia CNRM-CM5 Centre national de Recherches Meteorologiques, France RCP8.5 CCAM Australia CCSM4 NCAR, USA RCP8.5 CCAM Australia ACCESS1.3 CSIRO, Australia RCP8.5 CCAM Hong Kong SAR CCSM4 or CESM NCAR, USA RCP8.5, 4.5 WRF United Kingdom HadGEM2-ES Hadley Centre, UKMO RCP8.5, 4.5 PRECIS Germany MPI-ESM-LR Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany RCP8.5, 4.5 ROM Japan MRI-AGCM3.2 Meteorological Research Institute, JMA, Japan RCP8.5,4.5 NHRCM
12 Temperature
13 Mean Daily Temp. Temp. Anomaly. Projected Temperature for RCP Ave: 0.54 C 1.09 C 1.97 C
14 Temp. Anomaly. Mean Daily Temp. Projected Temperature for RCP Ave: 0.56 C 1.38 C 2.9 C
15
16 Precipitation
17 GCM DJF Mean Rainfall Future changes (% of mean rainfall during historical period) RCM Wetter condition is projected over mainland SEA region Becoming drier over Maritime Continent
18 JJA Mean Rainfall Future changes (% of mean rainfall during historical period) GCM RCM Slightly wetter / drier Wetter condition is projected over mainland SEA region Significantly drier over Maritime Continent
19 Extremes
20 Annual CDD Future changes (% of mean CDD during historical period) CDD Consecutive Dry days i.e. duration; Indicator of dryness CDD is projected to increase especially over Maritime Continent This annual dryness is mostly contributed by boreal summer season
21 Annual R50mm Future changes (% of mean R50mm during historical period) R50mm No. of days exceeds daily rainfall 50mm; Indicator of frequency of extreme rainfall Frequency of extreme rainfall is projected to increase Over Maritime Continent, despite mean rainfall is projected to decrease, frequency of extreme rainfall is projected to increase
22 Annual RX1Day Future changes (% of mean RX1Day during historical period) RX1Day Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation; Indicator of intensity of extreme rainfall Intensity of extreme rainfall is projected to increase Over Maritime Continent, despite mean rainfall is projected to decrease, intensity of extreme rainfall is projected to increase
23 SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia contributes significantly Enhanced networking in regional climate modeling Enhanced capacity building in regional climate simulation (PhD, MSc) Enhanced scientific understanding of regional climate change Enhanced visibility in scientific publications of regional climate change (~ targeting 20 publications) Establishment of database from this project to be accessible freely by user community Report for policy makers from key scientific findings of this project Some project members directly involved in providing scientific to the government
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25 SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia RU-CORE SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia ESGF Node IAV Groups Bias Correction
26 Thank you Jing Xiang CHUNG 1, Ester SALIMUN 1, Liew JUNENG 1, Supari SUPARI 3,Gemma NARISMA 4, Faye Cruz 5, Tan Van PHAN 6, Thanh NGO-DUC 6, Jerasron SANTISIRISOMBOON 2, Patama SINGHRUCK 7, Dodo GUNAWAN 3, Edvin ALDRIAN 3, Grigory NIKULIN 8, Hongwei YANG 9 1 National University of Malaysia, Malaysia, 2 Ramkhamhaeng University, Thailand, 3 Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, Indonesia, 4 Ateneo de Manila University, Philippines, 5 Manila Observatory, 6 Vietnam National University, Viet Nam, 7 Chulalongkorn University, Thailand, 8 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sweden, 9 APEC Climate Center, South Korea
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