Climate Change Models: The Cyprus Case

Transcription

1 Climate Change Models: The Cyprus Case M. Petrakis, C. Giannakopoulos, G. Lemesios National Observatory of Athens AdaptToClimate 2014, Nicosia Cyprus

2 Climate Research (1) Climate is one of the most challenging geophysical systems to simulate because of the number of interacting components and the wide range of time and spatial scales of relevant processes and their complexity The components of the climate system are: The Atmosphere (with clouds, aerosols and radiatively active gases including water vapour that transports latent heat) The hydrosphere (oceans, lakes and wet lands) The cryosphere (sea ice, land glaciers and snow) The lithosphere (land surface processes including soil moisture in its various phases) and The biosphere (vegetation effects on surface albedo, roughness and evapotranspiration, and carbon cycle both over land and in oceans).

3 Global climate models (GCMs) Regional climate models (RCMs) Global climate models (GCMs) are a fundamental research tool for the understanding of climate Regional climate models (RCMs) are a complementary research method, allowing more detailed process studies and simulation of regional and even local conditions

4 Climate models uncertainties Our knowledge of the future is arguably imperfect. The future concentrations of greenhouse gases depend both on past releases of these gases (which we know fairly well) and on future releases (which we do not know). Future emissions of greenhouse gases depend on the very policies of industrial countries. About one-half of the future uncertainty in temperature comes from our uncertainty in the future emission of CO2.

5 Climate models uncertainties Most of the uncertainty in the predictions of climate models is not related to natural processes. Instead, it is uncertain how much pollution humans will be adding to the atmosphere in the future. Innovations that stop or limit the amount of greenhouses gases that are produced, laws and rules that change the amount of pollutants that are released, and how the growing human population lives in the future are all somewhat unknown.

6 The Case of Cyprus Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea, hence it belongs in the Mediterranean climate zone and therefore, experiences mild winters and hot dry summers Winters are mild, with some rain and snow on Troodos Mountains. Summers are characterized by high temperatures and abundant sunshine Cyprus is among the most vulnerable regions to climate change, as it is expected to be relatively strongly affected by the projected warming and related changes It is likely to face increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions in the near future

7 The Case of Cyprus Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea, hence it belongs in the Mediterranean climate zone and therefore, experiences mild winters and hot dry summers Winters are mild, with some rain and snow on Troodos Mountains. Summers are characterized by high temperatures and abundant sunshine Cyprus is among the most vulnerable regions to climate change, as it is expected to be relatively strongly affected by the projected warming and related changes It is likely to face increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions in the near future

8 Regional Climate Models Data The daily projections used in the present study, are derived from the PRECIS regional climate model (RCM), of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The PRECIS RCM uses boundary and initial conditions as its parent Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) HadCM3, employing the IPCC SRES A1B emissions scenario. Except for PRECIS, six additional RCMs of the ENSEMBLES project have also been used namely KNMI, METNO, CNRM, METO, C4I and MPI. The results of six models were used as an ensemble mean for testing and comparing the respective results of PRECIS. The control run represents the base period and is used as reference for comparison with future projections. One future time slice is shown here: PRECIS RCM runs were carried out within the framework of the CIMME project funded by the Cyprus Institute.

9 Average annual maximum temperature Western Areas Southern areas Eastern areas Continental lowland areas Mountain areas PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE TXa Control TXa Change

10 Average annual minimum temperature Western Areas Southern areas Eastern areas Continental lowland areas Mountain areas PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE TNa Control TNa Change

11 Annual total rainfall Western Areas Southern areas Eastern areas Continental lowland areas Mountain areas PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRa Control PRa Change

12 Number of heatwave days - Daily maximum temperature higher than 35 C Western Areas Southern areas Eastern areas Continental lowland areas Mountain areas PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE TX>35 C Control TX>35 C Change

13 Number of tropical nights - Days per year with minimum nighttime temperatures TN>20 C Western Areas Southern areas Eastern areas Continental lowland areas Mountain areas PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE TN>20 C Control TN>20 C Change

14 Number of dry days (RR<0.5mm) Western Areas Southern areas Eastern areas Continental lowland areas Mountain areas PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE PRECIS ENSEMBLE RR<0.5mm Control RR<0.5mm Change

15 Climate change or resource exploitation? A new study sponsored by NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution. Noting that warnings of collapse are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history. Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to precipitous collapse often lasting centuries have been quite common.

16 Collapse of a civilization A new study sponsored by NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution. Noting that warnings of collapse are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history. Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to precipitous collapse often lasting centuries have been quite common.

17 Collapse of a civilization The research project is based on a new crossdisciplinary Human And Nature DYnamical (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharri of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio- Environmental Synthesis Center. It finds that according to the historical record even advanced, complex civilisations are susceptible to collapse, raising questions about the sustainability of modern civilisation: