C Y P A D A P T. M. Petrakis C. Giannakopoulos G. Lemesios.

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1 Development of a national strategy for adaptation to climate change adverse impacts in Cyprus C Y P A D A P T National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development M. Petrakis C. Giannakopoulos G. Lemesios

Introduction Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea, hence it belongs in the Mediterranean climate zone and therefore, experiences mild winters and hot dry summers Winters are mild,

2 Introduction Cyprus lies at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea, hence it belongs in the Mediterranean climate zone and therefore, experiences mild winters and hot dry summers Winters are mild, with some rain and snow on Troodos Mountains. Summers are characterized by high temperatures and abundant sunshine Cyprus is among the most vulnerable regions to climate change, as it is expected to be relatively strongly affected by the projected warming and related changes It is likely to face increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions in the near future

3 Global and Regional Climate Models 3

Regional Climate Models Regional climate models add further detail to global climate analyses or simulations and study climate processes in more detail than global models allow.

4 Regional Climate Models Regional climate models add further detail to global climate analyses or simulations and study climate processes in more detail than global models allow. They are the best available tools so far to study regional or local climate change, as is the case of the island of Cyprus. Their typical horizontal resolution is 25kmx25km 25 km 4

5 Regional Models used The main model used in our climate projections is the PRECIS regional climate model;, the domain of the PRECIS runs covers the East Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) : 22 o to 46 o N & 10 o to EMME region 62 o E. Cyprus lies in the centre of this domain. 5

Regional Models used (2) Additionally six RCMs of the EU funded ENSEMBLES project which cover the European domain with Cyprus in their borders, have also been used

6 Regional Models used (2) Additionally six RCMs of the EU funded ENSEMBLES project which cover the European domain with Cyprus in their borders, have also been used namely: KNMI, METNO, CNRM, METO, C4I and MPI. The results of six models were used as an ensemble mean for testing and comparing with the respective results of the PRECIS RCM. 6

7 Method For the examination of near future climate conditions in Cyprus, PRECIS RCM has been employed as the main climate model Additional RCMs of the ENSEMBLES EU project have also been used as an ensemble mean, namely KNMI, CNRM, METO, C4I and MPI All simulations concerning future predictions of climate change in Cyprus are driven by the A1B emission scenario of the IPCC The future period used for the simulations was the while the control period was

Climate Indices 1961-1990 Differences in climate indices: future (2021-2050) - control In Cyprus the

This decreases gradually as we approach the coastline Low-elevation continental regions in Cyprus are

8 Climate Indices Differences in climate indices: future ( ) - control In Cyprus the continental lowlands have close to two months temperatures above 35C. This decreases gradually as we approach the coastline Low-elevation continental regions in Cyprus are estimated to experience about 1 extra months with TX>35 o C, while coastal regions will see much smaller changes in the near future.

Climate Indices 1961-1990 Differences in climate indices: future (2021-2050) - control More than 5 months of wet days in the western part and

9 Climate Indices Differences in climate indices: future ( ) - control More than 5 months of wet days in the western part and higher elevation areas but less than 3 in the eastern part. Greater decreases in the eastern part of the island where we already have drier conditions.

Future projections for annual precipitation According to PRECIS model, along all northern coasts, especially Karpasia peninsula, are expected to receive less annual total precipitation in the future

10 Future projections for annual precipitation According to PRECIS model, along all northern coasts, especially Karpasia peninsula, are expected to receive less annual total precipitation in the future In all other parts of Cyprus, the annual total precipitation appears to have minor decreases or no changes at all The ENSEMBLE model mean presents a decrease in annual total precipitation all over Cyprus, with the highest one (about mm) located in Olympos mountain, in the central part of Troodos. Changes in annual total precipitation PRECIS ENSEMBLE WCA SCA ECA CLA HEA PRa

11 Future projections for seasonal precipitation PRECIS PRECIS PRDJF PRMAM ENSEMBLE ENSEMBLE PRDJF PRMAM WCA SCA ECA CLA HEA PRDJF PRMAM

12 Future projections for seasonal precipitation PRECIS PRECIS PRJJA PRSON ENSEMBLE ENSEMBLE PRJJA PRSON WCA SCA ECA CLA HEA PRJJA PRSON

13 Future projections for extreme precipitation PRECIS PRECIS PX1day (mm) PX3days (mm) ENSEMBLE ENSEMBLE PX1day (mm) PX3days (mm) WCA SCA ECA CLA HEA PX1day PX3days

14 Evaluation of the RCMs For the evaluation of the RCMs, climate time series were constructed with a view to compare the results of PRECIS and the ENSEMBLES RCMs with the observational data derived from 10 meteorological stations distributed throughout Cyprus The series of mean annual precipitation demonstrate that most of the models present a good agreement with the observed values The downward trend of all model outputs indicates a continuation of the decreasing precipitation amounts observed in Cyprus in the recent past

15 Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 coastal cities of Cyprus (Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos)

16 Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 continental lowland cities of Cyprus (Nicosia and Lefkara)

17 Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 semi-mountainous areas of Cyprus (Stavros, Panagia, and Saittas)

18 Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 mountainous areas of Cyprus (Amiantos and Prodromos)

19 Conclusion The precipitation patterns in Cyprus do not depend only upon the synoptic weather conditions but also on the pronounced topography, for example Troodos Mountains through which rivers supply the much needed water downstream According to PRECIS model, the annual total precipitation ranges from mm in the central part of Cyprus (from the north and the south) to mm in the western part of the country. The dominance of local topography is also evident from the seasonal total precipitations. For example, winter total precipitation ranges from about 75mm in the lowlands of central Cyprus to 270mm in the western higher elevation areas, woodlands and wetlands According to PRECIS, pronounced precipitation reduction is noticed in summer all over Cyprus, except from the greater area of Paphos, southwest from Troodos Mountains.

20 Conclusion Cyprus projected precipitation changes are quite variable among models. Winter drying will be modest in PRECIS with precipitation decreasing by 5-15mm but larger in the ENSMEBLEs model mean with precipitation decreases reaching 50mm in higher elevation areas. Throughout the year, Cyprus will not be affected by large changes according to PRECIS but according to the ENSEMBLES model mean reductions in precipitation may reach 60mm in southern coastal areas and 80 mm at higher elevation sites. Therefore, Cyprus precipitation patterns must be interpreted with caution, owing to the large temporal variability of rainfall and the inherent limitations of climate models to simulate accurately the hydrological cycle and the large variations of future projected changes among models.

Impacts of the climate change on the precipitation regime on the island of Cyprus

Impacts of the climate change on the precipitation regime on the island of Cyprus Michael Petrakis, Christos Giannakopoulos, Giannis Lemesios Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development,