Climate change and changing monsoon patterns

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1 Climate change and changing monsoon patterns Pankaj Kumar 1, Andy Wiltshire 2, Bodo Ahrens 3, Andreas Gobiet 4, Daniela Jacob 1 1. Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie & Climate Service Center, Hamburg, Germany 2. Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, UK 3. Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe-University, Germany 4. Wegener Center, University of Graz, Austria

2 Outline Introduction Current Climate Change Information of India GCM/RCM GCM RCM Work done under HighNoon Multi-model very high-resolution Climate change information for India Summary Outlook 1/14

3 Orography More realistic monsoon precipitation pattern in RCM 2/14

4 GCM Projection for South Asia Temp : ~1.25 Precip : ~5% Temp : ~3.5 Precip : ~10% 3/14

5 IPCC /14

RCM Simulation available for India RCM-PRECIS ~55Km A2 and B2

6 RCM Simulation available for India RCM-PRECIS ~55Km A2 and B vs Rupa Kumar et al. 2006, Current Science 5/14

7 Regional Models (RCMs) HighNoon RCM Simulations for India REMO : Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Germany HadRM3 : UK Met Office CCLM : COSMO Resolution : 0.22x0.22 deg (~25Km) Domain : E E & 4.125N N Period : Forcing : ERA-I, ECHAM5/MPI OM and HadCM3 Simulation : 5 Ensemble : Mean of 5 simulations 6/14

8 Very-high resolution RCMs ensemble annual mean projections 7/14

9 Annual: 2m Temperature Change 8/14

10 Annual: Precipitation change vs vs /14

11 Monsoon season Circulation 10/14

12 Future circulation change 11/14

13 Summary The most detailed high resolution (~25Km) climate information available for the region. The first complete high resolution climate simulation data set from 1960 to The ensemble-mean warming evident at the end of 2050 is 1-2 C, whereas it is 3-5 C at the end of century. Weaken circulation but enhanced precipitation The projected pattern of the precipitation change shows spatial variability. The increase in precipitation is noticed over peninsular and coastal areas and no change or decrease over areas away from the ocean. 12/14

14 Research gaps/ Needs More extensive observed daily data to characterize observed changes A handsome set of multi-model RCM simulation forced with several GCMs provides more robust estimates of climate change scenarios for the region. Scenarios most relevant to India need to be identified, to address the regional climate. Interactive regional data access system to be developed to enable impact assessment groups to directly download the data of their interest, e.g IPCC, DKRZ, CORDEX Tailored Climate information on extremes (e.g., heat waves/cold waves, extreme precipitation event, etc. could be considered) Adequate attention may be paid to develop sub-regional climatic information (e.g. state wise) Training programmes for impact assessment groups to understand the climate change scenario development and the associated data products, to enable them to use and interpret the data more effectively 13/14

Regional Tailored Climate Information 35 ENSEMBLES cold nights 2000 2099 mean over india 30

ENSEMBLES highest 5 day precipitation amount 2000 2099 mean over india 160 150 [mm/5days] 140

15 Regional Tailored Climate Information 35 ENSEMBLES cold nights mean over india Cold nights frequency ENSEMBLES highest 5 day precipitation amount mean over india [mm/5days] Yearly 5- day mean max precip /14

16 Thank you for attention!!

Simulation of the regional climate model REMO over CORDEX West-Asia Pankaj Kumar, Daniela Jacob

Simulation of the regional climate model REMO over CORDEX West-Asia Pankaj Kumar, Daniela Jacob Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Climate Service Center, Hamburg, Germany Orography