Seasonal Predictions for South Caucasus and Armenia

Transcription

1 Seasonal Predictions for South Caucasus and Armenia Anahit Hovsepyan Zagreb, June 2008

2 SEASONAL PREDICTIONS for the South Caucasus There is a notable increase of interest of population and governing organizations with regards to weather and climate information Main users of monthly/seasonal predictions energy, transport, agriculture, emergency, fisheries, etc. Hydro meteorological information is provided to users On the contract basis As per requests At present, the NMHSs of the South Caucasus countries provide operational short and medium range as well as monthly forecasts. Monthly/seasonal forecasts are made using Analogue method, that is less reliable in comparison with numerical. LRF products from Russian, Turkish meteorological services and also from ECMWF are also being used The skill is too low and current prediction system doesn t fully meet requirements of different user communities in this region

3 SEASONAL PREDICTIONS for the South Caucasus Temperature and Precipitation anomalies UK Met Office JAS Category maps Met Office system, ECMWF/Met Office multi-model Probabilistic maps IRI JAS Probabilistic prediction APCC JJA Multi-Model Ensemble Probabilistic prediction NCEP CFS JAS Deterministic prediction Probabilistic prediction

4 Temperature Predictions UK Met Office

5 Temperature Predictions IRI

6 Temperature Predictions APCC MME

7 Temperature Predictions NCEP CFS

8 Precipitation Predictions UK Met Office

9 Precipitation Predictions IRI

10 Precipitation Predictions APCC MME

11 Precipitation Predictions NCEP CFS

12 Temperature Deterministic Forecasts Centre Issued Period Variable Prediction UK MetOffice Tercile category UK MetOffice Ensemble APCC MME May 08 JAS Temp. Above normal more likely May 08 JAS Temp above normal May 08 June Temp above normal May 08 July Temp above normal May 08 August Temp above normal May 08 July Temp above normal NCEP CFS May 08 August Temp. 1 0 above normal May 08 September Temp. 0.5 above normal Summary: Most Centres forecast Warmer JAS for the region

13 Temperature Probabilistic Forecasts Centre Issued Period Variable Prediction UK MetOffice May 08 JAS Temp. 60% above normal 80% a.n. for Armenia IRI May 08 JAS Temp % a.n. prob. APCC May 08 JJA Temp. 40% prob. A.n. May 08 July Temp. Near normal NCEP CFS May 08 August Temp % prob a.n. May 08 September Temp % prob b.n. Summary: Most Centres forecast Probability of Warmer JAS for the region

14 Precipitation Deterministic Forecasts Centre Issued Period Variable Prediction UK MetOffice Tercile category May 08 JAS Precip. Dry more likely UK MetOffice Ensemble May 08 JAS Precip. Slightly below normal APCC NCEP CFS May 08 June Precip. Near normal May 08 July Precip. Slightly b.n. May 08 August Precip. Slightly a.n. May 08 July Precip mm b.n. May 08 August Precip mm b.n. May 08 September Precip. 2-5 mm b.n. Summary: Most Centres forecast drier Summer for the region

15 Precipitation Probabilistic Forecasts Centre Issued Period Variable Prediction UK MetOffice May 08 JAS Precip. 40% b.n. Azerbaijan 60% b.n. Armenia&Georgia IRI May 08 JAS Prec. Climatological probability APCC May 08 JJA Precip. 40% prob. B.n. May 08 July Precip % prob. B.n. NCEP CFS May 08 August Precip % prob. B.n. May 08 September Precip. 35% prob. a.n. Summary: Most Centres forecast probability of drier JAS for the region

16 JAS Outlook for South Caucasus Seasonal forecasts produced at different Centres have been examined for the South Caucasus Region. Based on the guidance, following Outlook is prepared. Temperature: Probability of Warmer JAS: The region may experience warmer than normal temperature during the next three months. Precipitation: Probability of drier JAS. The region may receive less than normal precipitation during coming three months.

17 Status of LRF in the South Caucasus At the national and regional levels providing adequate information and products to decision makers and end-users about the seasonal climate predictions are major challenges. At present, the countries in the region, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia do not independently produce long-range forecasts (LRF). Trained scientific man-power on LRF and computing resources to carry out real-time predictions and research on climate variability over the region are limited. There is an urgent need to develop climate information network and climate early warning systems at the regional scale for improvement of the climate system monitoring

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19 Skill of forecasts UK Met Office Gerrity skill score JAS 2m Temperature JAS Precipitation

20 Skill of forecasts Temperature Met Office ROC maps Precipitation

21 Skill of forecasts Skills of forecast