South Eastern Australian Rainfall in relation to the Mean Meridional Circulation
|
|
- Amberly Whitehead
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 South Eastern Australian Rainfall in relation to the Mean Meridional Circulation Bertrand Timbal, Hanh Nguyen, Robert Fawcett, Wasyl Drosdowsky and Chris Lucas CAWCR / Bureau of Meteorology
2 Long-term SEA rainfall deficit: 30 year climatology April to July Annual mean Last 30 years a different climate baseline? Australia becoming wetter Southern edge of the continent becoming drier Drying across southern Australia a late autumn-early winter phenomenon Wetting across Australia a warm season phenomenon November - March
3 Mean climate state driven by the Mean Meridional Circulation MMC transfer excess heat from the Tropics to higher latitude How will it respond to increase trapped heat? SEA
4 SEA: a Mediterranean climate Kottek et al.,, Met Zeit, 2006
5 Pressure in hpa Degree (in Celsius) SEACI-1 key result Intensity of the STR and Global Warming (11-years running means) Central Year STR Intensity annual mean Global Annual Temperature
6 STR relationship with SEA rainfall Relationship stronger with intensity than position of the STR Relationships strongest where rainfall deficit is observed STR-P STR-I Timbal and Drosdowsky, Int. J. of Clim, 2012
7 Monthly rainfall anomalies (mm STR relationship with SEA rainfall Relationship is significant from April to November Match the continuum of observed rainfall deficit (except early autumn) STR related rainfall deficit resemble the observed one (linear reconstruction) Using linear statistics: no additional effect due to shift in STR position IOD Nino4 Tri-pole STR-I Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Observed rainfall anomalies Derived from STR-I anomalies Derived from STR-P anomalies Derived from STR-I and P anomalies Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Timbal and Drosdowsky, Int. J. of Clim, 2012
8 Non linear interactions between intensity and position of the STR Particularly important in autumn: transition season Identified using non linear analysis technique (CART) Winter-like and Summerlike wet autumn cases Winter-like not seen since 1995 Relatively high value of the STR-I can lead to wet autumn in SEA (autumn 2007 and in March 2010, 2011 and 2012). Whan et al., Int. J. of Clim, accepted
9 Hadley Cell is broadening Expansion of the HC in all reanalyses ~0.5 o /decade in the SH ~0.6 o /decade in the NH. Smaller trend than previously found Consistent results Nguyen et al., J. of Clim, submitted
10 Seasonal trends of the widening
11 HC relationship with the STR Correlation between HC and STR monthly anomalies. Expansion of the HC is associated with polewards shift of the STR Intensification of the STR also related to HC expansion much less to the intensity of the HC
12 The Edge of the Tropics each dot is one observation of the tropopause, bin size = 1 km, centred Lucas et al., JGR, accepted
13 Analysis Method Count number of days with tropopause >14.5 km & normalize to June-May Sample bias Random uncertainty Form composite time series in zonal bands 3-5 degrees width. 2-8 stations per bands. 10 bands ANZ, 9 bands SA, 8 bands for AFR Contour ndgt15 in time-latitude space Slope of contours gives trend Lucas et al., JGR, accepted
14 Regional Comparison Global similarity between regions 300 contour different Relation with ENSO Expansion during La Nina, ~3-4 o between extremes Strongest on 100, 50 contours (r ~ ) Strongest over ANZ contour ANZ trend Influence of Volcanoes El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo Larger in SA Trends stronger in SA
15 Shift of instabilities from STJ to PFJ % Change May Rainfall (1975 to 1994) (1949 to 1968) Storm track :300hPa Streamfunction Amplitude (1997 to 2006) (1975 to 1994) Frederiksen et al.,, Man. Clim. Ch., 2010 Since the ( ) period, the preferred region for growth has shifted from the subtropical jet to the polar front jet (also about 10% reduction in growth rate)
16 Conclusions SEA is affected by a long-term rainfall deficiency The very wet ended the Millennium Drought but not the longterm signal Large-scale modes of variability are important (year to year, e.g. 2010/11) but not convincing to explain long-term deficit SEA mean climate is a result of the Mean Meridional Circulation The MMC is changing HC broadening, intensity is unclear Storm-track, tropopause height confirm this Drive in turn the STR: SEA local controller (other modes drive it as well) Autumn is a transition season where the expansion of the HC is very large and drive both intensification and shift in position (non-linearity)
Understanding Recent Tropical Expansion and its Impacts
Understanding Recent Tropical Expansion and its Impacts www.cawcr.gov.au Chris Lucas Hanh Nguyen The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
More informationThe continuing decline in South-East Australian rainfall - Update to May 2009
The continuing decline in SEA rainfall update to 2009 Page 1 of 8 The continuing decline in South-East Australian rainfall - Update to May 2009 Bertrand Timbal Bureau of Meteorology, Centre for Australian
More informationWill a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
More informationThe South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative Phase 2 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) is a three-year (2009 2012), $9 million research program investigating the causes and
More informationThe relationship between the decline of Southeastern Australian rainfall and the strengthening of the subtropical ridge
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Int. J. Climatol. 33: 1021 1034 (2013) Published online 12 April 2012 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.3492 The relationship between
More informationIntroduction to Climate ~ Part I ~
2015/11/16 TCC Seminar JMA Introduction to Climate ~ Part I ~ Shuhei MAEDA (MRI/JMA) Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA) 1 Outline of the lecture 1. Climate System (
More informationClimate Change: bridging scientific knowledge and public policy. Forum Parliament House, Canberra 18 March 2010
Climate Change: bridging scientific knowledge and public policy Forum Parliament House, Canberra 18 March 2010 Opening Comments Prof. Peter Coaldrake Chair Universities Australia Session 1 Climate change
More informationThe Victorian Climate Initiative: VicCI
The Victorian Climate Initiative: VicCI Bertrand Timbal M. Ekstrom (CLW), H. Hendon (BoM) + VicCI scientists S. Fiddes (Melb. Uni.), M. Griffiths (BoM) Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).
More informationOVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM. Domingos Mosquito Patricio
OVERVIEW OF IMPROVED USE OF RS INDICATORS AT INAM Domingos Mosquito Patricio domingos.mosquito@gmail.com Introduction to Mozambique /INAM Introduction to AGRICAB/SPIRITS Objectives Material & Methods Results
More informationENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM
ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM El Nino is still hanging on but likely not for very long. Warmer than normal water can still be seen along the equator in the tropical Pacific. It is even warmer in the
More informationStratospheric planetary wave reflection and its influence on the troposphere
Stratospheric planetary wave reflection and its influence on the troposphere N. Harnik, Tel Aviv University J. Perlwitz, CIRES U. Colorado/NOAA ESRL T. A. Shaw, Columbia University, NY, NY, USA The following
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for November 2017 1.1 In November 2017, Southeast Asia experienced inter-monsoon conditions in the first
More informationAtmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting
Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV Data to Seasonal Forecast Products 18 21 January 2011 Tokyo, Japan Atmospheric circulation analysis for seasonal forecasting Shotaro Tanaka Climate
More informationANNUAL CLIMATE REPORT 2016 SRI LANKA
ANNUAL CLIMATE REPORT 2016 SRI LANKA Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology C/o Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka, Digana Village, Rajawella, Kandy, KY 20180, Sri Lanka Citation Lokuhetti, R.,
More informationKey Findings & Implications
A Tree-Ring Based Assessment of Synchronous Extreme Streamflow Episodes in the Upper Colorado & Salt-Verde-Tonto River Basins Key Findings & Implications August 10, 2005 Workshop A Collaborative Project
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Date issued: Oct 26, 2017 1. Overview The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to develop towards a La Niña state, and is expected to be in at
More informationChiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC
Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC This threat overview relies on projections of future climate change in the Mekong Basin for the period 2045-2069 compared to a baseline of 1980-2005.
More information1. Introduction. 2. Verification of the 2010 forecasts. Research Brief 2011/ February 2011
Research Brief 2011/01 Verification of Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific and Number of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in South China and the Korea and Japan region
More informationCOUNTRY REPORT. Jakarta. July, th National Directorate of Meteorology and Geophysics of Timor-Leste (DNMG)
The Southeastern Asia-Oceania Flash Flood COUNTRY REPORT Jakarta. July, 10-12 th 2017 National Directorate of Meteorology and Geophysics of Timor-Leste (DNMG) Carla Feritas and Crisostimo Lobato Democratic
More information"STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR "
"STUDY ON THE VARIABILITY OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL AND TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR 2001 2010" ESPERANZA O. CAYANAN, Ph.D. Chief, Climatology & Agrometeorology R & D Section Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical
More informationOn the presence of tropical vortices over the Southeast Asian Sea- Maritime Continent region
Technical Conference of 50 th Annual Session of Typhoon Committee 2018 On the presence of tropical vortices over the Southeast Asian Sea- Maritime Continent region Nguyen Dang-Quang 1, James Renwick 2,
More informationImpacts of modes of climate variability, monsoons, ENSO, annular modes
Impacts of modes of climate variability, monsoons, ENSO, annular modes Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti National Institute for Space Research INPE Modes of variability- preferred patterns of variability.
More informationGPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office
GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere
More information2009 FINAL REPORT PROJECT Final report for Project 1.5.1
Final report for Project 1.5.1 Application of the Bureau of Meteorology downscaling technique to coupled climate model simulation of the 20 th century and implications for the attribution of observed climate
More informationGAMINGRE 8/1/ of 7
FYE 09/30/92 JULY 92 0.00 254,550.00 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 254,550.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 254,550.00 AUG 10,616,710.31 5,299.95 845,656.83 84,565.68 61,084.86 23,480.82 339,734.73 135,893.89 67,946.95
More informationChanges in Southern Hemisphere rainfall, circulation and weather systems
19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12 16 December 2011 http://mssanz.org.au/modsim2011 Changes in Southern Hemisphere rainfall, circulation and weather systems Frederiksen,
More informationATSR SST Observations of the Tropical Pacific Compared with TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level Anomaly
ATSR SST Observations of the Tropical Pacific Compared with TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level Anomaly J.P.Angell and S.P.Lawrence Earth Observation Science Group, Dept. Physics and Astronomy, Space Research Centre,
More informationAssessment of the Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events on Rainfall Amount in South-Western Nigeria
2016 Pearl Research Journals Journal of Physical Science and Environmental Studies Vol. 2 (2), pp. 23-29, August, 2016 ISSN 2467-8775 Full Length Research Paper http://pearlresearchjournals.org/journals/jpses/index.html
More informationMinnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture. Today. 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date
Minnesota s Climatic Conditions, Outlook, and Impacts on Agriculture Kenny Blumenfeld, State Climatology Office Crop Insurance Conference, Sep 13, 2017 Today 1. The weather and climate of 2017 to date
More informationWind: Global Systems Chapter 10
Wind: Global Systems Chapter 10 General Circulation of the Atmosphere General circulation of the atmosphere describes average wind patterns and is useful for understanding climate Over the earth, incoming
More informationVariability and trend of the heat balance in the southeast Indian Ocean
Variability and trend of the heat balance in the southeast Indian Ocean Ming Feng, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research Arne Biastoch, Claus Böning, Leibniz-Institut für Meeresforschung Nick Caputi, Department
More informationPresentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
More informationVariability and trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures and in diurnal temperature range in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia
Variability and trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures and in diurnal temperature range in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia Jaak Jaagus Dept. of Geography, University of Tartu Agrita Briede Dept.
More informationEL NIÑO MODOKI IMPACTS ON AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL
EL NIÑO MODOKI IMPACTS ON AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL Andréa S. Taschetto*, Alexander Sen Gupta, Caroline C. Ummenhofer and Matthew H. England Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), University of New South Wales,
More informationDrought in Southeast Colorado
Drought in Southeast Colorado Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 1 Historical Perspective on Drought Tourism
More informationDelayed Response of the Extratropical Northern Atmosphere to ENSO: A Revisit *
Delayed Response of the Extratropical Northern Atmosphere to ENSO: A Revisit * Ruping Mo Pacific Storm Prediction Centre, Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada Corresponding author s address: Ruping
More informationGlobal Atmospheric Circulation
Global Atmospheric Circulation Polar Climatology & Climate Variability Lecture 11 Nov. 22, 2010 Global Atmospheric Circulation Global Atmospheric Circulation Global Atmospheric Circulation The Polar Vortex
More informationYACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer
YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer Mike Crimmins Assoc. Professor/Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Environmental Science The University of Arizona Yes, another climate tool for
More information2016 Hurricane Season Preview
2016 Hurricane Season Preview Eric Uhlhorn, Ph.D. 1 2 Recap of 2015 Hurricane Season - El Niño played a significant role in activity - Atlantic activity was slightly below normal 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes,
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through
More informationImpact of Zonal Movement of Indian Ocean High Pressure on Winter Precipitation over South East Australia
Proceedings of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences 51 (2): 177 184 (2014) Pakistan Academy of Sciences Copyright Pakistan Academy of Sciences ISSN: 0377-2969 (print), 2306-1448 (online) Research Article Impact
More informationUsing Reanalysis SST Data for Establishing Extreme Drought and Rainfall Predicting Schemes in the Southern Central Vietnam
Using Reanalysis SST Data for Establishing Extreme Drought and Rainfall Predicting Schemes in the Southern Central Vietnam Dr. Nguyen Duc Hau 1, Dr. Nguyen Thi Minh Phuong 2 National Center For Hydrometeorological
More informationRegional climate-change downscaling for hydrological applications using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model
Regional climate-change downscaling for hydrological applications using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model Water for a Healthy Country Flagship Steve Charles IRI Seminar, September 3, 21 Talk outline
More informationparticular regional weather extremes
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 1.138/NCLIMATE2271 Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes particular regional weather extremes James A Screen and Ian Simmonds
More informationENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency
ENSO Outlook by JMA Hiroyuki Sugimoto El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Outline 1. ENSO impacts on the climate 2. Current Conditions 3. Prediction by JMA/MRI-CGCM 4. Summary
More informationWhat is happening to the Jamaican climate?
What is happening to the Jamaican climate? Climate Change and Jamaica: Why worry? Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM) Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona Part 1 RAIN A FALL, BUT DUTTY
More informationImpact of sea surface temperatures on African climate. Alessandra Giannini
Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate Alessandra Giannini alesall@iri.columbia.edu Outline: Intro/Motivation: demand-driven science, use of seasonal climate prediction, adaptation to climate
More informationInfluences of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the stratosphere and the importance of the QBO
Influences of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the stratosphere and the importance of the QBO Karin Labitzke, Institute for Meteorology, F.U. Berlin Germany (Labitzke and van Loon, numerous papers, 1987 2006)
More informationSierra Weather and Climate Update
Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of
More information8.1 Attachment 1: Ambient Weather Conditions at Jervoise Bay, Cockburn Sound
8.1 Attachment 1: Ambient Weather Conditions at Jervoise Bay, Cockburn Sound Cockburn Sound is 20km south of the Perth-Fremantle area and has two features that are unique along Perth s metropolitan coast
More informationLinear and nonlinear statistical analysis of the impact of sub-tropical ridge intensity and position on south-east Australian rainfall
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Int. J. Climatol. 34: 326 342 (2014) Published online 25 April 2013 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.3689 Linear and nonlinear statistical
More informationIntroduction. Observed Local Trends. Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones. Projections for the Philippines. Temperature Rainfall
PAGASA-DOST ntroduction Observed Local Trends Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones Projections for the Philippines Temperature Rainfall Climate Change ssue ncreased use of fossil fuel Global Warming
More informationEffect of anomalous warming in the central Pacific on the Australian monsoon
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L12704, doi:10.1029/2009gl038416, 2009 Effect of anomalous warming in the central Pacific on the Australian monsoon A. S. Taschetto, 1
More informationThe 2009 Hurricane Season Overview
The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview Jae-Kyung Schemm Gerry Bell Climate Prediction Center NOAA/ NWS/ NCEP 1 Overview outline 1. Current status for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Western Pacific basins
More informationGlobal climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues
www.bsc.es Ispra, 23 May 2017 Global climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes BSC Earth Sciences Department and ICREA Many of the ideas in this presentation
More informationThe Arctic Energy Budget
The Arctic Energy Budget The global heat engine [courtesy Kevin Trenberth, NCAR]. Differential solar heating between low and high latitudes gives rise to a circulation of the atmosphere and ocean that
More information1. INTRODUCTION 2. HIGHLIGHTS
Bulletin Issue January 2017 Issue Number: ICPAC/03/44 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Seasonal Bulletin, Review for October to December (OND) Season 2016 For referencing within this bulletin,
More informationSeasonality of the Jet Response to Arctic Warming
Seasonality of the Jet Response to Arctic Warming Bryn Ronalds Adv: Elizabeth Barnes CVCWG Meeting: March 2, 27 The story: Midlatitude jets are fundamental to weather and climate It is generally agreed
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for January 2018 1.1 The prevailing Northeast monsoon conditions over Southeast Asia strengthened in January
More informationOFF THE CHARTS: 2013 WAS AUSTRALIA S HOTTEST YEAR
OFF THE CHARTS: 2013 WAS AUSTRALIA S HOTTEST YEAR The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. 2013 was a remarkable
More informationRelationship between the Hadley Circulation and the position and intensity of the sub-tropical ridge in the Australian region
Final report for Project 1.1.1P Relationship between the Hadley Circulation and the position and intensity of the sub-tropical ridge in the Australian region Principal Investigator: Dr. Bertrand Timbal,
More informationWinds and Global Circulation
Winds and Global Circulation Atmospheric Pressure Winds Global Wind and Pressure Patterns Oceans and Ocean Currents El Nino How is Energy Transported to its escape zones? Both atmospheric and ocean transport
More informationWinter Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR
Winter 07-08 Steve Todd Meteorologist In Charge National Weather Service Portland, OR Overview Winter Weather Outlook How to stay informed Winter Outlook LaNina conditions are present across the tropical
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016
Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start
More informationRainfall declines over Queensland from and links to the Subtropical Ridge and the SAM
Rainfall declines over Queensland from 1951-2007 and links to the Subtropical Ridge and the SAM D A Cottrill 1 and J Ribbe 2 1 Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Docklands, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
More informationEffects of Large Volcanic Eruptions on Global Summer Climate and East Asian Monsoon Changes
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still
More informationEl Niño, South American Monsoon, and Atlantic Niño links as detected by a. TOPEX/Jason Observations
El Niño, South American Monsoon, and Atlantic Niño links as detected by a decade of QuikSCAT, TRMM and TOPEX/Jason Observations Rong Fu 1, Lei Huang 1, Hui Wang 2, Paola Arias 1 1 Jackson School of Geosciences,
More informationThe spatio-temporal characteristics of total rainfall during September in South Korea according to the variation of ENSO
Clim Dyn DOI 1.17/s382-13-233- The spatio-temporal characteristics of total rainfall during September in South Korea according to the variation of ENSO Ki-Seon Choi Sung-Dae Kang Hae-Dong Kim Bin Wang
More informationSC-WACCM! and! Problems with Specifying the Ozone Hole
SC-WACCM! and! Problems with Specifying the Ozone Hole R. Neely III, K. Smith2, D. Marsh,L. Polvani2 NCAR, 2Columbia Thanks to: Mike Mills, Francis Vitt and Sean Santos Motivation To design a stratosphere-resolving
More informationEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Rainfall Probability Training
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Rainfall Probability Training Training Module Malawi June 27, 2017 Version 1.0 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), (2017). El Nino-Southern
More informationClimate Outlook for March August 2017
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for March August 2017 BUSAN, 24 February 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for March to August 2017 (MAMJJA) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located
More informationSouth & South East Asian Region:
Issued: 15 th December 2017 Valid Period: January June 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System
More informationA SUMMARY OF RAINFALL AT THE CARNARVON EXPERIMENT STATION,
A SUMMARY OF RAINFALL AT THE CARNARVON EXPERIMENT STATION, 1931-213 J.C.O. Du Toit 1#, L. van den Berg 1 & T.G. O Connor 2 1 Grootfontein Agricultural Development Institute, Private Bag X529, Middelburg
More informationRainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The Rate of Change
Rainfall Patterns across Puerto Rico: The 1980-2013 Rate of Change Odalys Martínez-Sánchez Lead Forecaster and Climate Team Leader WFO San Juan UPRRP Environmental Sciences PhD Student Introduction Ways
More informationClimate Variability. Eric Salathé. Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington. Thanks to Nathan Mantua
Climate Variability Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Thanks to Nathan Mantua Northwest Climate: the mean Factors that influence local/regional
More informationThe Planetary Circulation System
12 The Planetary Circulation System Learning Goals After studying this chapter, students should be able to: 1. describe and account for the global patterns of pressure, wind patterns and ocean currents
More informationSeasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
More information2003 Moisture Outlook
2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu Through 1999 Through 1999 Fort Collins Total Water
More informationThe scientific basis for climate change projections: History, Status, Unsolved problems
The scientific basis for climate change projections: History, Status, Unsolved problems Isaac Held, Princeton, Feb 2008 Katrina-like storm spontaneously generated in atmospheric model Regions projected
More informationStefan Liess University of Minnesota Saurabh Agrawal, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Vipin Kumar University of Minnesota
Introducing and Finding Tripoles: A Connection Between Central Asia and the Tropical Pacific Stefan Liess University of Minnesota liess@umn.edu Saurabh Agrawal, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Vipin Kumar University
More informationModel Based Climate Predictions for Utah. Thomas Reichler Department of Atmospheric Sciences, U. of Utah
Model Based Climate Predictions for Utah Thomas Reichler Department of Atmospheric Sciences, U. of Utah thomas.reichler@utah.edu Climate Model Prediction Results Northern Utah: Precipitation will increase
More informationWhat Determines the Amount of Precipitation During Wet and Dry Years Over California?
NOAA Research Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division What Determines the Amount of Precipitation During Wet and Dry Years Over California? Andy Hoell NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory
More informationThe science behind southeast Australia s wet, cool summer.
XXXX The science behind southeast Australia s wet, cool summer. Key facts: 1. For many years scientists have painted a clear picture: that the Earth s surface is warming rapidly and the climate is changing.
More informationA Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake
A Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake Prepared by: Allan Chapman, MSc, PGeo Hydrologist, Chapman Geoscience Ltd., and Former Head, BC River Forecast Centre Victoria
More informationOn the drivers of inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability in Queensland, Australia
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Int. J. Climatol. (22) Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI:.2/joc. On the drivers of inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability
More informationZambia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Zambia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationSummary report for Ruamāhanga Whaitua Committee The climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment
Summary report for Ruamāhanga Whaitua Committee The climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment The Tararua and Rimutaka ranges have a large influence on the climate of the Ruamāhanga catchment. The ranges shelter
More informationU.S. Outlook For October and Winter Thursday, September 19, 2013
About This report coincides with today s release of the monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks for the U.S. from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). U.S. CPC October and Winter Outlook The CPC
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
More informationChanging Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed
Changing Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed David Bosch USDA-ARS, Tifton, GA Jeff Arnold ARS Temple, TX and Peter Allen Baylor University, TX SEWRU Objectives 1. Project changes
More informationChapter 2 Cook Islands
Rarotonga Chapter 2 Cook Islands The contributions of Arona Ngari, Maarametua Vaiimene, David Maihia and Nitoro Bates from the Cook Islands Meteorological Service and Pasha Carruthers from the National
More informationInfluences of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the stratosphere and the importance of the QBO
(Solar Variability, Earth s Climate and the Space Environment; Bozeman, Montana, June 2008) Influences of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the stratosphere and the importance of the QBO Karin Labitzke, Institute
More informationAssessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective
Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective Flavio Lehner, Andrew Wood Eugene Wahl Dagmar Llewellyn, Douglas Blatchford NCAR Research Applications
More informationPossible Roles of Atlantic Circulations on the Weakening Indian Monsoon Rainfall ENSO Relationship
2376 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE Possible Roles of Atlantic Circulations on the Weakening Indian Monsoon Rainfall ENSO Relationship C.-P. CHANG, PATRICK HARR, AND JIANHUA JU Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate
More informationColorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook
Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu How we got into this drought! Fort
More informationWHEN IS IT EVER GOING TO RAIN? Table of Average Annual Rainfall and Rainfall For Selected Arizona Cities
WHEN IS IT EVER GOING TO RAIN? Table of Average Annual Rainfall and 2001-2002 Rainfall For Selected Arizona Cities Phoenix Tucson Flagstaff Avg. 2001-2002 Avg. 2001-2002 Avg. 2001-2002 October 0.7 0.0
More informationLong term change in the abundances of northern Gulf of Mexico scyphomedusae Chrysaora sp. and Aurelia spp. with links to climate variability
Long term change in the abundances of northern Gulf of Mexico scyphomedusae Chrysaora sp. and Aurelia spp. with links to climate variability Kelly L. Robinson William M. Graham U. Southern Mississippi
More informationVerification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter
Verification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter Shingo Yamada Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency 2006/11/02 7 th Joint Meeting on EAWM Contents 1. Verification of the Seasonal
More informationHighlight: Support for a dry climate increasing.
Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact
More information