CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR ALBERTA MUNICIPALITIES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS NORTHERN ALBERTA. Dr. Mel Reasoner Reasoner Environmental Consulting

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1 CLIMATE RESILIENCE FOR ALBERTA MUNICIPALITIES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS NORTHERN ALBERTA Dr. Mel Reasoner Reasoner Environmental Consulting

2 Probability of occurrence Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance Less change In cold weather Historical Climate New Climate Much more hot weather and record hot weather Cold Average Hot

3 Average Annual Temperature has Increased Over the Last Century The Data % 4 13 %

4 Temperature o C Northern Alberta Mean Annual Temperature Environment Canada Adjusted and Homogenized Climate Data Year Ft. McMurray High Level Cold Lake Edmonton Lacombe

5 Temperature o C 4 Northern Alberta Mean Annual Temperature Northern Alberta Mean Annual Temperature o C/Century Mann Kendall p = 2.4E-10 95% Confidence Level -3 Year

6 Temperature o C Northern Alberta Winter Temperature Northern Alberta Winter Temperature o C/Century Mann Kendall p = 6.9E-5 95% Confidence Level Year

7 Temperature o C Northern Alberta Summer Temperature Northern Alberta Summer Temperature o C/Century Mann Kendall p = 9.2E-8 95% Confidence Level Year

8 Temperature o C Northern Alberta Winter Temperature Northern Alberta Winter Temperature o C/Century Mann Kendall p = 6.7E-2 90% Confidence Level Year

9 Degrees C North-Central Alberta Mean Coldest Month Temperature North-Central Alberta - Mean Coldest Month Temperature +9.1 o C/Century Mann Kendall p = 1.6E-2 95% Confidence Level Year

10 Degree Days 7500 North-Central Alberta Heating Degree Days North-Central Alberta - Heating Degree Days DD/Century Mann Kendall p = 1.1E-2 95% Confidence Level Year

11 Precipitation mm Northern Alberta Annual Average Precipitation Northern Alberta Average Annual Precipitation mm/century Mann Kendall p = 3.0E-2 95 % Confidence Level Year

12 Precipitation mm North-Central Alberta Precipitation as Snow -22 mm/century Slave Lake Precipitation as Snow Mann Kendall p = 0.25 Not Significant Year

13 Precipitation mm Northern Alberta Annual Average Precipitation Northern Alberta Annual Average Precipitation mm/century Mann Kendall p = 1.0E-2 95% Confidence Level Year

14 Detailed analyses have shown that the warming since 1900 is mainly a result of the increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Continued emissions of these gases will cause further climate change, including substantial increases in global average surface temperature and important changes in regional climate.

15 Climate Projections for Southern Alberta (2050s) PCIC A2, B1, A1B

16 Climate Profile for Northern Alberta Climate Element Average temperature ANNUAL Projected future change in the Northern Alberta Region By 2050s +2.2 o C (+1.6 to +3.0) Average precipitation ANNUAL +7% (1% to +15%) Average temperature SUMMER 1.9 o C (+1.4 to +3.0) Average precipitation SUMMER 2% (-5% to +13%) Average temperature Average precipitation WINTER WINTER 3.0 o C (+1.4 to +4.1) +12% (-4% to +21%) Average precipitation Average Snowfall SPRING SPRING +9% (+2% to 21%) -11% (-25% to -3%)

17 Climate Profile for Northern Alberta Climate Element Heating Degree Days ANNUAL Cooling Degree Days ANNUAL Growing Degree Days ANNUAL Chilling Degree Days ANNUAL Frost Free Days ANNUAL Projected future change in the Northern Alberta Region By 2050s -774 (-551 to -1028) +29 (+9 to +99) +267 (+190 to +426) -423 (-249 to -564) +18 (+12 to +30) SRES AR4 - PCIC A2+B1+A1B Northern Alberta Region

18 Frequency Northern Northern Alberta Alberta Mean Mean Annual Annual Temperature Temperature th Century climate Data Range

19 Frequency Northern Northern Alberta Alberta Mean Mean Annual Annual Temperature Temperature th Century climate 2.2 o C Projected climate during 2050s % 34.1% % 13.6% % 2.1% 2σ -1 0 Data Range o C σ μ 1σ 2σ 4 5 6

20 Temperature o C Are PCIC Model Projections Plausible? Are Model Projections Plausible? Northern Alberta Mean Annual Temperature 4 3 Model projections for Northern Alberta o C above baseline 3.0 o C Mean 1.6 o C 2.2 o C Range 10 th -90 th percentile o C/Century Mann Kendall p = 2.4E-10 Durbin Watson = Year

21 Temperature o C Northern Alberta Mean Annual Temperature Extreme Years Northern Alberta Mean Annual Temperature (High Level, Ft. McMurray, Cold Lake, Edmonton, Lacombe) o C/Century 100-year event? Year

22 Athabasca Glacier Change in 88 years

23 Stream Flow Trend and Ice Volume Projection Recorded (naturalized) flows declining at 0.14% (0.10%) per year over Decline attributed primarily to loss of glacier mass resulting in significant declines in summer and fall season flows Alberta glaciers will lose 80-90% of their volume by 2100 Glacier contributions to stream flow reduced by similar amount

24 Temperature and Extreme Rainfall Intensity The results are that rainfall extremes are increasing on average globally. They show that there is a 7% increase in extreme rainfall intensity for every degree increase in global atmospheric temperature. Westra et al., 2013

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