2016 Irrigated Crop Production Update

Transcription

1 2016 Irrigated Crop Production Update Mapping Climate Trends and Weather Extremes Across Alberta for the Period Stefan W. Kienzle Department of Geography University of Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada

2 Contributors Tim Anderson Colin Langhorn Charmaine Bonifacio Marcus Mueller Christine Clark

3 Searching for Answers How has the climate changed over the past 60 years? How does the future of water supply look like?

4 What is the difference between weather and climate? Weather is the short-term condition of the atmosphere (hot-cold, wet-dry, windy-calm, etc.) Climate is the average weather of many years, typically 30 years

5 Climate and Extreme Weather Climate change is described using: average changes in temperature average changes in precipitation. Most social and economic costs associated with climate change will result from a shift in: Frequency of extreme weather events Severity of extreme weather events.

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7 Daily Climate Data at 10 km spatial resolution Collaborative between: Environment Canada (data) Canada Climate Service (data) Natural Resources Canada (interpolation) Australian National University (interpolation) Published by the National Land and Water Information Service (NLWIS).

8 22,280 daily layers for Precipitation Minimum temperature Maximum temperature 10 km Climate Grids

9 Daily Time Series for 1950 to 2010 Example: Grid cell at Beaver Mines, Alberta, for 1971

10 Lethbridge Climate Trends Mean Annual Temperature Mean Winter Temperature Number of Days Tmin < -20 C

11 Change in Mean Annual Temperature: ( C)

12 Change in Mean Winter Temperature: ( C)

13 Change in Mean Spring Temperature: ( C)

14 Change in Mean Summer Temperature: ( C)

15 Change in Mean Fall Temperature: ( C)

16 Growing season length: 1950 to 2010 [change in days]

17 Change in Number of Annual Frost Days: (in days)

18 Trend in Number of at least 5 consecutive days with temperatures above 5 C over normal Near Pincher Creek: Near Taber: from 20 to 39 days from 19 to 32 days Near Picture Butte: from 21 to 39 days Heat Waves

19 Lethbridge Climate Trends Growing Season Beginning of Growing Season Growing Degree Days > 5 C End of Growing Season

20 Change in Annual Potential Evapotranspiration: (in mm) (Penman-Monteith method)

21 Variable Description Units Tmax >= threshold temperature Annual count when the daily maximum temperature >= chosen Days threshold temperature, e.g. 25 C Tmax <= threshold temperature Annual count when the daily maximum temperature <= chosen Days threshold temperature, e.g. 2 C Tmin >= threshold temperature Annual count when the daily minimum temperature >= chosen Days threshold temperature, e.g. 5 C Tmin <= threshold temperature Annual count when the daily minimum temperature <= chosen Days threshold temperature, e.g. 0 C Frost days Annual count when daily minimum temperature < 0 C Days Growing season Length Annual count between first span of at least 6 days with Tmean Days >5 C and first span after July of 6 days with TMean < 5 C Heat wave days Count of days in a year that are 5 C higher than during the period Days Ice days Annual count when daily maximum temperature <0 C Days Max Tmax Monthly maximum value of daily maximum temp C Max Tmin Monthly maximum value of daily minimum temp C Min Tmax Monthly minimum value of daily maximum temp C Min Tmin Monthly minimum value of daily minimum temp C Cool nights Percentage of days when TN<10th percentile % Cool days Percentage of days when TX<10th percentile % Warm nights Percentage of days when TN>90th percentile % Warm days Percentage of days when TX>90th percentile % Consecutive dry days Maximum number of consecutive days with RR<1mm Days

22 End day of growing season Last day of span of at least 6 days with Tmean <5 C C Variable Description Units Accumulated precipitation over 5 days Simple precipitation intensity index Annual maximum sum of 5-day precipitation Annual fraction of annual precipitation sum divided by the number of precipitation days Mm > 1mm Very wet years Annual total precipitation when above the period 95 th percentile Years Annual precipitation Annual sums of daily precipitation mm Warm spell duration indicator Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TX>90th percentile Days Cold spell duration indicator Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when TN<10th percentile Days Diurnal temperature range Monthly mean difference between TX and TN C Max 1-day precipitation amount Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation mm Max 5-day precipitation amount Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation mm Simple daily intensity index Annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days (defined as precipitation >= 1.0mm) in the year Number of heavy precipitation days Annual count of days when daily precipitation >=10mm Days Number of very heavy precipitation days Annual count of days when daily precipitation >=20mm Days Number of days above nn mm Annual count of days when daily precipitation >= nn mm, nn is user defined threshold Days Consecutive wet days Maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation >= 1mm mm Very wet days Annual total PRCP when RR>95 th percentile mm Extremely wet days Annual total PRCP when RR>99 th percentile mm Annual total wet-day precipitation Annual total PRCP in wet days (RR>=1mm) mm Growing degree days >=0 C Annual sum of daily temperatures >= 0 C C Growing degree days >=5 C Annual sum of daily temperatures >= 5 C C Growing degree days >=10 C Annual sum of daily temperatures >= 10 C C Beginning day of growing season First day of span of at least 6 days with Tmean >5 C C Mm mm/day

23 First Screen

24 Zoomed in and selected a grid cell

25 Zoomed in and selected a grid cell: DETAIL VIEW

26 Change in Maximum Snow Pack: (in mm) Castle River Watershed

27 Castle River Watershed: Precipitation

28 Castle River Watershed: Change in Mean Annual Streamflow

29 This project was made possible through funding provided by: NSERC Alberta Innovates - EES

30 Questions?