Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting. Weekly Cat Report. September 1, Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

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1 Weekly Cat Report September 1, 2017 Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.

2 This Week s Natural Disaster Events Event & Region Fatalities Damaged Structures Est. Economic Specific Areas Page or Filed Claims Loss (USD) HU Harvey - United States s of Thousands+ 10s of Billions+ Texas, Louisiana 3 TS Pakhar - Asia 12+ Hundreds 56+ million Philippines, China, Hong Kong 27 Flooding - Asia - Middle East Thousands Hundreds 100s of Millions Millions India Yemen Landslide - Asia million China Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting s Catastrophe Insight website: Weekly Cat Report 2

3 Hurricane Harvey becomes strongest US landfall since 04 Hurricane Harvey came ashore in Texas on August 25, becoming the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 2004 (Charley), and the first major hurricane to make landfall with at least Category 3 intensity since 2005 (Wilma). Landfall officially occurred near Rockport, Texas as a 130 mph (215 kph) Category 4 cyclone, bringing extreme wind gusts, storm surge, isolated tornadoes and prolific rainfall. Varying reports say dozens of people are presumed dead or missing and many others were injured. The storm slowed to a virtual standstill across east-central Texas as heavy rains continued until August 31, with some spots receiving more than 50 inches (1,270 millimeters). Catastrophic flooding across a broad section of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana was reported. Meteorological Recap Note: The National Hurricane Center, Weather Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service each provided well-verified forecasts for the lifespan of Hurricane Harvey. This is particularly impressive given the complexities involved in determining the track, forward speed, and intensity of Harvey in addition to the challenging atmospheric set-up. Data: NOAA, NASA Hurricane Harvey was first identified by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as a tropical wave, just off the East Coast of Africa on August 13. The NHC continued to monitor the wave through the next four to five days as it tracked westward across the Atlantic Ocean. Sufficient thunderstorm activity associated with the wave slowly organized and a low level circulation center was identified on satellite imagery on August 17 prompting the NHC to begin issuing advisories on a potential tropical cyclone. Later on August 17, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission found a well-defined circulation with strong convection and maximum sustained wind speeds of 40 mph (65 kph) prompting the NHC to name the disturbance Tropical Storm Harvey. Atmospheric conditions for further development of the storm were marginal as warm sea surface temperatures were offset by moderate vertical wind shear. However, Harvey continued to track in a general westward direction as it moved through the Lesser Antilles, including directly across Barbados and St. Vincent on August 18 at tropical storm strength. Weekly Cat Report 3

4 The following day, NHC meteorologists noted that the structure of Harvey had deteriorated based on a raggedlooking storm evident in satellite imagery while a Hurricane Hunter mission found a much weakened system with a closed circulation only evident at very low levels in the atmosphere. Through August 19, wind shear continued to tear apart the storm and by the late afternoon it had been downgraded to a tropical depression. The track motion continued in a general west-northwestward direction across the Caribbean Sea toward Belize and Mexico. Forecast model intensity output on August 19 18Z (Source: NHC, Tropical Atlantic) Harvey on August 18 (Source: NASA) At this time, the forecast computer models showed significant bifurcation: one set of models predicted that wind shear would subside in 24 hours allowing major re-intensification of Harvey prior to it making landfall over Belize or Mexico s Yucatan Peninsula; the other set of models showed that the structure of the storm had decayed so severely that it would not be able to regenerate itself, despite atmospheric conditions becoming significantly more favorable. Late on August 19, the NHC reported that Harvey had degenerated to such an extent that it was now considered an open wave and as a result they ceased issuing advisories on the system. The wave continued to track over the open waters of the western Caribbean Sea before later crossing the Yucatan Peninsula on August 22. The NHC continued to monitor the wave as it emerged in the Bay of Campeche and Harvey s remnants almost immediately began to re-intensify over very warm sea surface temperatures. The agency began issuing advisories once again on August 23 as a Hurricane Hunter mission found a closed low-level circulation center. The system remained disorganized with an asymmetric pattern evident in satellite imagery despite atmospheric conditions over the western Gulf of Mexico being very favorable. The warm sea surface temperatures combined with low levels of vertical wind shear to allow Harvey to regain its structure and rapidly intensify. In their first advisory on August 23, the NHC first noted the potential for Harvey to make landfall as a hurricane-strength system over the U.S. state of Texas. Harvey on August 23 (Source: NASA) Weekly Cat Report 4

5 As Harvey moved over the western Gulf of Mexico it turned and took a more northerly track for roughly 24 hours through August as the system began to strengthen its inner core given the very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Early on August 24 it was once again upgraded as Tropical Storm Harvey for the second time. Intensification of the system occurred more quickly than forecast and just 12 hours later Hurricane Harvey was named with maximum sustained wind speeds of 85 mph (140 kph) based on data measured by a Hurricane Hunter. As Harvey attained hurricane intensity its track once again changed direction and it turned to the northnorthwest and toward the Texas coast as the steering currents altered. The intensification rate of the system slowed slightly through the late hours of August 24, but aircraft reconnaissance missions on August 25 continued to find a more powerful cyclone. In fact, the aircraft data found that the system had intensified into a Category 2 storm with 105 mph (165 kph) winds. This strengthening was clearly evident given an improved satellite signature. A deep, strong ring of convection around an intermittent eye feature indicated that the storm was responding to a very favorable atmosphere. By the late morning of August 25, local National Weather Service (NWS) offices in Brownsville and Corpus Christi began observing Harvey via Doppler radar scans. It was determined that the hurricane had developed a pair of concentric eyewalls. The NHC noted that the concentric eyewalls were proving problematic for their intensity forecasts due to the potential for an eyewall replacement cycle to occur. (During an eyewall replacement cycle the intensity of a hurricane generally decreases or stays stable while the extent of the wind field increases.) The agency continued to warn of the prodigious amount of rainfall expected to fall across a broad swath of east Texas and western Louisiana given the size of Harvey regardless of how intense the storm may be at landfall. At this point, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) was warning of the possibility of up to 30 inches (762 millimeters) of rain falling in a fiveday span. Harvey just prior to landfall on August 25 (Source: NASA) Despite the presence of the concentric eyewalls, Harvey continued to intensify through August 25 as its wind speeds increased and central pressure plummeted. During this time, Harvey was traversing over a deep and warm eddy of water. These conditions helped the cyclone become a major hurricane during the afternoon of August 25. In another flight, the Hurricane Hunters measured wind speeds that corresponded to maximum sustained surface winds of 125 mph (205 kph); strong Category 3. Harvey continued to intensify all the way up until its initial landfall into Texas at approximately 10:00 PM CDT local time (03:00 UTC, August 26) as a 130 mph (215 kph) Category 4 strength hurricane. Landfall location was near the town of Rockport, Texas, which is located between Port Aransas and Port O Connor. The storm would continue to slow its forward progress after its initial landfall while tracking directly over Rockport and causing extensive wind, storm surge and flood damage across numerous neighboring towns and cities. The NHC would later confirm a second landfall at 01:00 AM CDT August 26 (06:00 UTC) at Copano Bay, Texas as a 125 mph (205 kph) Category 3 system. Weekly Cat Report 5

6 Throughout the day on August 26, Harvey very gradually began to weaken and lose its wind speed intensity. The storm ceased to contain hurricaneforce winds during the afternoon, but maintained an impressive appearance on satellite. Numerous incredibly intense bands of heavy rain and isolated tornadoes accompanied the bands of rain that led to multiple Flash Flood Emergencies including in the greater Houston metro region. The slow-moving nature of the system prompted the WPC to indicate that isolated areas of Texas could see upwards of 50 inches (1,270 millimeters). This, in fact, verified. Radar image on August 26 (Source: NASA) Harvey maintained minimal tropical storm-force winds while meandering back near the back into the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC only expected minimal (if any) intensification, primarily due to sea surface temperatures being much cooler given recent upwelling and the intrusion of dry air into Harvey s core. The storm eventually made its final landfall near Cameron, Louisiana on August 30 around 4:00 AM (9:00 UTC) with 45 mph (75 kph) winds. Despite the lack of strong intensification, the storm continued to bring relentless heavy rainfall to parts of Texas and Louisiana. Harvey was expected to finally lose its tropical characteristics by September 2 while its remnants tracked into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Despite future dissipation, it will take at least a week for flood waters and river levels to recede to normal. Below is a graphic that shows maximum rainfall totals caused by tropical cyclones and their remnants for each Lower 48 state dating to Harvey broke the continental US record for rainfall by a tropical cyclone: a total of inches (1,317.7 millimeters) of rain was recorded at Cedar Bayou, Texas. Weekly Cat Report 6

7 Storm Data Below is official storm data as of August 31 from the National Weather Service, Weather Prediction Center, and National Hurricane Center. Wind Gusts Location Wind Gust (mph) Location Wind Gust (mph) Port Aransas, TX 132 Austwell, TX 80 Copano Village, TX 125 Magnolia Beach, TX 79 Lamar, TX 110 Edna, TX 73 Aransas Pass, TX 109 Chapman Ranch, TX 71 Rockport, TX 108 Brazos, TX 70 Aransas, TX 106 Palacios (Airport), TX 69 Taft, TX 90 Seadrift, TX 67 Victoria, TX 83 Ganado, TX 64 Fulton, TX 83 La Ward, TX 64 Flour Bluff, TX 81 Portland, TX 63 Rainfall Totals Source: NOAA Location, County Total Rainfall (in) Location Total Rainfall (in) Cedar Bayou, TX La Porte, TX Clear Creek, TX Baytown, TX Dayton, TX Mount Houston, TX Mary s Creek, TX Clover Field, TX Beaumont/Port Arthur, TX Houston ICA, TX Santa Fe, TX Katy, TX Pasadena, TX Will Hobby, TX Horsepen Creek, TX D. W. Hooks, TX South Houston, TX Galveston, TX Berry Bayou, TX Bayou Conway, LA Friendswood, TX Bayou Toro, LA Little Vince Bayou, TX Kenner Gully, LA Houston, TX Calcasieu River, LA League City, TX Joe Spears Road, LA Webster, TX Ward Line Road, LA Cheek Canal, TX Moss Bluff, LA Little Cedar Bayou, TX Belfield Ditch, LA Armand Bayou, TX Iowa, LA Turkey Creek, TX Goldsmith Canal, LA Boondocks Road, TX Bayou Arsene, LA Taylor Lake, TX Gautier, MS 8.27 Hillebrandt Bayou, TX Bonsecour, AL 7.91 Mahaw Bayou, TX Sandhill Crane, MS 7.90 Jacinto City, TX Gasque, AL 7.45 Hunting Bayou, TX Milton, FL 6.92 Telepsen, TX Pensacola, FL 6.84 First Colony, TX Grand Bay, AL 6.81 Beamer Ditch Hughes Road, TX Mammoth Springs, AR 6.42 Source: NOAA Weekly Cat Report 7

8 Rainfall Map Preliminary rainfall totals from August (Source: University of Wisconsin CIMSS) Weekly Cat Report 8

9 Select Rainfall Gauges Weekly Cat Report 9

10 Rainfall Return Period There is no simple way to provide a blanket rainfall return period (RP) for Hurricane Harvey. Based on typical rainfall patterns, there are some specific locations that end up receiving much higher or lower rainfall amounts. For Harvey, the extent of extreme rainfall was substantial. An unusually remarkable swath of minimal 30-inch (762-millimeter) rainfall extended from well west of Houston to beyond the Texas/Louisiana border. Due to this fact, preliminary rainfall return period analysis by NOAA and the University of Wisconsin s CIMSS group indicates that an abnormally large swath of southeast Texas incurred rainfall RP rates minimally ranging from 500 to 1,000 years. Please note that rainfall return periods can be determined based on many different time intervals, which can range from 5 minutes to 60 days. Hurricane Harvey s rainfall reached the 1,000-year rainfall return period based on many time intervals during the course of a number of hours and days. Given the volume of water, local infrastructure across southeast Texas was simply unable to handle such an enormous amount of rainfall in a short amount of time. Preliminary rainfall return period based on data from August (Source: University of Wisconsin CIMSS) Weekly Cat Report 10

11 Storm Surge* Location Storm Surge (ft) Location Storm Surge (ft) Manchester, TX 9.67 Eagle Point, TX 3.60 Port Lavaca, TX 6.90 Bob Hill Pier, TX 3.59 Seadrift, TX 5.77 San Luis Pass, TX 3.46 Port Aransas, TX 5.52 Matagorda Bay, TX 3.40 Aransas Wildlife Reserve, TX 4.80 Matagorda City, TX 3.30 Packery Channel, TX 4.73 Port O Connor, TX 3.13 Copano Bay, TX 4.11 Sargent, TX 2.49 Morgan s Point, TX 3.88 Rockport, TX 1.97 Source: NOAA *Water height recorded above Mean Sea Level (MSL) Record River Gauge Data # Location Maximum Gauge Height Major Flood Level Previous Record Lake Creek above the Woodlands, TX (05/2016) Brazos River above San Felipe, TX (05/2016) Cypress Creek near Cypress, TX (10/1994) West Fork San Jacinto River near Conroe, TX (10/1994) Cypress Creek near Westfield, TX (10/1949) East Fork San Jacinto River near New Caney, TX (10/1994) Buffalo Bayou at West Belt Drive, TX (08/1983) West Fork San Jacinto River near Humble, TX (10/1994) Buffalo Bayou at Piney Point Village, TX (03/1992) Black Creek at Highway 326, TX (06/2016) San Bernard River near Boling, TX (06/1960) Pine Island Bayou near Sour Lake, TX (10/1994) Navidad River at Sublime, TX (11/2004) Menard Creek near Rye, TX (10/1994) Navidad River near Morales, TX (11/2004) Navidad River near Speaks, TX (04/2009) Trinity River at Liberty, TX (10/1994) San Bernard River at East Bernard, TX (04/2016) Navidad River at Strane Park, TX (11/2004) San Bernard River near Sweeny, TX (10/1998) East Fork San Jacinto River at Cleveland, TX (10/1994) Cow Bayou near Mauriceville, TX (10/2006) Peach Creek near Splendora, TX (10/1949) Clear Creek at Friendswood, TX (06/2001) Davidson Creek near Lyon, TX (10/1994) Trinity River near Moss Bluff, TX (06/2016) Neches River at Beaumont, TX (10/1994) # Data updated as of 10:00PM CDT, August 30 Source: NWS Weekly Cat Report 11

12 River Gauge Data for Stations at Major Flood Stage # Location Maximum Gauge Height Flood Level % of Full Capacity San Jacinto River near Sheldon, TX % Calcasieu River near Old Town Bay, LA % Colorado River above La Grange, TX % Guadalupe River near Cuero, TX % Lavaca River near Edna, TX % Guadalupe River at Victoria, TX % Bayou Anacoco near Rosepine, LA % Caney Creek near Splendora, TX % Sandy Creek near Cordele, TX % Colorado River at Columbus, TX % Buffalo Bayou at Shepherd Drive, TX % Guadalupe River near Bloomington, TX % Bedias Creek near Madisonville, TX % Trinity River near Goodrich, TX % Sandies Creek near Westhoff, TX % Colorado River at Wharton, TX % Tres Palacios River near Midfield, TX % Sabine River near Bon Wier, TX % Brazos River near Rosharon, TX % Garcitas Creek near Inez, TX % Spring Creek near Spring, TX % Brazos River at Richmond, TX % Greens Bayou at Houston, TX % Trinity River near Romayor, TX % Cypress Creek near Hockley, TX % Bundick Creek at Bundick Lake, LA % # Data updated as of 10:00PM CDT, August 30 Source: NWS Weekly Cat Report 12

13 River Gauge Height Map Flooding stages across SE Texas and Houston area as of August 29, 11:00AM CDT (Data: NOAA, Background: OpenStreetMap) Selected River Gauge Locations Hydrographs for selected river gauges in Harris County. (Source: NWS) Weekly Cat Report 13

14 Event Details Texas Reported death tolls varied but at the time of this writing it was believed that at least 37 people were killed; almost all of who were in the greater Houston metro area and as a result of the catastrophic flooding. Multiple more reports of casualties remained unconfirmed at this time while dozens of other people were injured as a result of the storm. It was expected that some 30,000 people would be forced into shelters, and as many as 450,000 people in Texas alone would need assistance. One of the major shelters was established in the George Brown Convention Center in downtown Houston which had an estimated capacity of 5,000 however, as of August 29, some 9,000 people had arrived. A further 2,000 people sought refuge at the Mo Campbell Education Center in Houston. Wind Damage Among the hardest hit areas by Harvey s winds was the town of Rockport which bore the brunt of the hurricane s landfall. The local mayor reported widespread destruction on the morning of August 26. The town was under a mandatory evacuation order prior to the arrival of Harvey which included the evacuation of inmates from the local jail. At least one person was killed and 12 others were injured in Rockport. Local media reports indicated that as many as nine others were still missing. Images on local media showed trailers and mobile homes which had been tossed about, toppled and snapped power poles and trees, roofs torn from homes and other buildings, properties that had been impaled by trees and extensive debris strewn across roads, sidewalks, yards, car parks, and other open spaces. Portions of the town s high school were also destroyed as was an emergency medical post. Severe damage was also reported to the library and other public facilities. Officials struggled to coordinate a rescue response due to extensive outages in power supplies and telecommunications while local media speculated that some residents may be trapped inside collapsed buildings. Rockport Airport, TX (Source: Agence France Presse) Numerous towns and cities to the south of Rockport, including Corpus Christi, also fared badly as reports indicated that hundreds of mobile homes were destroyed. Officials in Port Aransas reported early on August 28 that most structures in the city had been compromised to some level. They also noted that although a mandatory evacuation order was in place for the town s 3,800 residents as many as 100 people stayed behind. They were all accounted for by late on August 26 and following extensive searches of the town there was only one confirmed fatality there. To the north of Rockport, extensive damage was noted in the town of Refugio as trees and power poles were strewn across streets and impaled in buildings. Multiple homes lost their roofs while at least two mobile homes were destroyed. The town s high school also lost its roof. Extensive damage was also reported from Port Lavaca and Victoria. Weekly Cat Report 14

15 The Gulf of Mexico s oil and gas industry was also impacted as refinery shut-downs extended along the coast. Among those to close was Exxon Mobil s Baytown refinery - the second largest in the country. Multiple platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were also evacuated through August 27. A total of 105 production platforms were closed of the 737 in the Gulf. Five rigs were also evacuated while one more was moved from Harvey s path. Ahead of Harvey s arrival, three refineries and two petrochemical plants were closed causing many gas stations to run out of gasoline and pushing prices to their highest levels in four months. Disruption to the supply caused by Harvey is likely to push prices even higher in coming months according to analysts. Storm damage in Corpus Christi, TX (Source: US Coast Guard) Along the Texas coast it was reported that 338,000 customers were left without power in the aftermath of Harvey s landfall: 210,000 of those were in the Corpus Christi area. As of August 28 at 3:00PM CDT, Texas Public Utilities Commission registered more than 305,000 outages across the state. Severe Weather Additionally Harvey spawned multiple tornadoes when it came ashore. The Storm Prediction Center received 33 reports of tornadoes from August These reports were filtered to remove duplicates. The reported twisters were all in Texas (22) and Louisiana (11). Tornado touchdowns were reported from Brazoria, Brazos, Calhoun, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin, Harris, Jefferson, Matagorda, Waller, and Wharton Counties, Texas, and from Acadia, Cameron, Forrest, Iberia, Lafayette, Vermilion, and Vernon Parishes, Louisiana. One tornado touched down in Hackberry, Louisiana early on Saturday (August 26) afternoon but early reports indicated that damage due to the twister was minimal. Another tornado made at least four touchdowns in the Cypress area of Houston, TX. At least one vehicle was flipped while local emergency responders noted that extensive damage to roofs had occurred. Tornadic damage to homes, vehicles, businesses, and other buildings was also noted around Matagorda. Tornadoes observed on August (Source: NOAA, OpenStreetMap) One oil spill was noted as the result of severe weather generated by Harvey: a bolt of lightning struck a fiberglass storage container prompting it to ignite on August 27. An estimated 210 gallons (795 liters) of oil was released at a facility operated by Karbuhn Oil Company. Weekly Cat Report 15

16 Flood Damage The majority of the damage inflicted by Harvey was as a result of catastrophic flooding inflicted by the combination of a large storm surge and prodigious amounts of rainfall as the storm pulled warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico over the Texas coast for days following its landfall. The NWS reported that conditions were unprecedented and issued a flash flood emergency for the entire Houston metro area. River levels rose rapidly prompting widespread and devastating floods. Among the worst Aerial view of flooding in Houston, TX (Source: US Coast Guard) affected areas was Harris County, including the Houston metro area. By early on August 27, NWS meteorologists were already describing the floods as the worst Houston had ever experienced and official guidance from emergency management teams to people whose homes became inundated was to get on the roof. Another NWS official described the situation as catastrophic, historic, and epic. In a Civil Emergency Message released at 6:10 AM CT August 27 (12:10 UTC), the following message was transmitted at the request of the city of Houston: Emergency management officials have requested that people escaping flood waters as a last resort do not stay in the attic. If highest floor of your home becomes dangerous get on the roof. Controlled releases of water from two dams (Addicks and Barker) in the western part of Harris County began on August 28. Both dams were designed to withstand 1-in-1,000 year flood events. The release worsened flooding in several neighborhoods but was deemed necessary to avoid bigger, uncontrolled flows from occurring later. Despite the increased outflow from the dams, the spillway of Addicks Reservoir was overtopped by rising water level at approximately 07:19AM CDT on August 29. Source: US Coast Guard Weekly Cat Report 16

17 Aerial view of flooding in Houston, TX (Source: Houston Chronicle) As of August 31, record-breaking river gauge levels were recorded in the Brazos River, Navidad River, San Bernard River, San Jacinto River, Trinity River, Clear Creek, Cypress Creek, Davidson Creek, Lake Creek, Menard Creek, Peach Creek, and Buffalo Bayou while the Colorado River, Guadalupe River, Lavaca River, Tres Palacios River, Bedias Creek, Caney Creek, Garcitas Creek, Sandies Creek, Sandy Creek, Spring Creek, Brays Bayou, White Oak Bayou, and Greens Bayou all reached major flood stage. Multiple other rivers, creeks, and bayous were in moderate or minor flood stages and many were still rising. Emergency services were inundated by tens of thousands of calls for help and carried out thousands of rescues through August saving more than 13,000 people. From the time of Harvey s landfall through midday on August 28, officials reported that Houston s 911 system had received and processed some 75,000 calls. The fire department alone had received some 15,000 calls through August 30. Almost 20 helicopters were being utilized in rescue operations as well as dozens of boats. As of August 28 the Coast Guard reported they were receiving more than 1,000 calls per hour for assistance. Several reports circulated in local media of boat-owners in the Houston area undertaking unofficial rescue missions as emergency services were overwhelmed. By August 28, the entire Texas National Guard, comprised of 12,000 members, was activated, while FEMA deployed 1,800 staff. By August 30, a further 10,000 National Guard troops from across the U.S. had been deployed to Texas taking the total number deployed there to approximately 24,000. Houston s George Bush International Airport and William P. Hobby Airports were closed due to flooded runways affecting thousands of flights. Multiple ports were also closed, through Monday, August 28 at the earliest, including those at Houston, Galveston, Texas City, Freeport, and Corpus Christi. Lists of road closures throughout Houston and the surrounding areas were endless and growing by the hour: as of this writing, approximately 250 roads, highways, and interstates were shut. On August 28, around 220,000 customers were left without power in the Houston area alone. While most of the focus remained on Houston, the flooding disaster in Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas was nothing short of horrific. Exceptional flooding left both cities reeling. In Beaumont alone, the flooding was so severe that both water pumps had failed; leaving the city of nearly 120,000 entirely without running water. The pumps were not expected to be fixed until the water fully recedes. The flooding was also blamed on causing the Arkema plant to have multiple chemical explosions in the nearby town of Crosby. The twin blasts on August 31 occurred after organic peroxides overheated. The chemicals require being kept cool, but Arkema lost power on August 27 and that caused temperatures to rise in the storage facility; prompting containers to pop and catch fire. Aerial view of flooding in Houston, TX (Source: Alertnet.org) Weekly Cat Report 17

18 On August 30, the Motiva Enterprises plant in Port Arthur, Texas began a complete shutdown. The plant is the biggest oil refinery in the country and had already been running at half-speed prior to the full closure. In total more than one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity had been shuttered by August 30 prompting a rise in gasoline prices. Analysts estimated that it may take up to two weeks or longer before normal operations could resume. An oil spill occurred at Kinder Morgan s Pasadena Terminal on August 26 as a result of a storage tank being tilted due to large volumes of floodwaters. The amount of oil spilled was not confirmed but the tank had a capacity of 6.3 million gallons (24 million liters). Officials reported that they believed the spill was contained. Two further oil spills were reported on August 30 by Burlington Resources Oil and Gas in DeWitt County. One of the spills was a 16,170 gallon (61,210 liter) spill near Westhoff and the other was a 13,272 gallon (50,240 liter) spill near Hochheim. In addition, an 8,500 gallon (32,175 liter) barrel of wastewater was also spilled. Beyond structural damage, there has been substantial impact to a high volume of automobiles, infrastructure and agriculture. Those damage costs are expected to be well into the billions of dollars. To provide greater context to automobiles specifically, early reports from multiple automotive industry groups indicate that as many as 500,000 (or more) vehicles may have been damaged by Harvey. This would be much higher than the 250,000 damaged during Hurricane Sandy and the 200,000 during Hurricane Katrina. A quote from Cox automotive indicated that vehicle ownership rates are about 1.8 vehicles per household in Houston. This is higher than what was seen in New York during Hurricane Sandy (1.3) and in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina (1.6). Texas Disaster Declarations A federal disaster proclamation was signed on August 25. This came in addition to the 58 counties declared by the state as disaster areas. The 58 affected counties were Angelina, Aransas, Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bee, Bexar, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell, Calhoun, Cameron, Chambers, Colorado, Comal, DeWitt, Fayette, Fort Bend, Galveston, Goliad, Gonzales, Grimes, Guadalupe, Hardin, Harris, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Jim Wells, Karnes, Kerr, Kleberg, Lavaca, Lee, Leon, Liberty, Live Oak, Madison, Matagorda, Montgomery, Newton, Nueces, Orange, Polk, Refugio, Sabine, San Jacinto, San Patricio, Trinity, Tyler, Victoria, Walker, Waller, Washington, Wharton, Willacy and Wilson Counties. Weekly Cat Report 18

19 Preliminary Summary of Property Damage in Texas (as of August 31) Homes Businesses County Affected Minor Damage Major Damage Destroyed Major Damage Harris 44,784 29,772 11, Matagorda 1, San Patricio 1,833 1, Aransas Fort Bend Montgomery Polk Wharton Liberty Cameron Galveston , Fayette Kleberg TOTAL 84,582 49,992 37,146 6,804 2,881 As of August 31, the Texas Department of Public Safety issued a preliminary estimate of public property damage at USD180 million. Also, please note that the above table does not yet reflect any affected home or business in the city of Houston. The totals for several counties will rise substantially in the coming days and weeks as assessments continue. Louisiana As Harvey edged northward through August 28-29, a federal disaster was declared for five at-risk Louisiana parishes including Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, and Vermillion in the southwest of the state. The Louisiana governor sought the addition of Allen, Acadia, Iberia, Natchitoches, Rapides, Sabine, and Vernon to the declaration on August 30. With rainfall topping 20 inches (508 millimeters) across southwestern sections of the state, this caused several rivers and streams to swell well above flood stage. Of particular interest was in Beauregard Parish, where all residents along the Sabine River were requested by local officials to evacuate their homes. Hundreds of roads throughout the hardest-hit parishes were closed given high water levels. As of August 31, river levels were continuing to rise as smaller creeks and streams were draining into the larger watershed. It will take several more days, if not longer, until Louisiana is able to fully take stock of the damage. However, the governor of the state commented on August 30 that preliminary assessments indicated that the scope of damage was less than initially feared. Weekly Cat Report 19

20 Future Impacts As of August 31, Harvey s remnants continued to slowly track towards the northeast. The system was bringing heavy rainfall to parts of the Southeast and was forecast to begin accelerating over the next few days while tracking through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. Heavy rains though no immediate reports of flooding were cited in parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. The most significant impacts on August 31 have been the result of severe thunderstorms. Numerous tornado warnings were issued. The graphic below shows polygons of every tornado warning issued associated with Hurricane Harvey from August 24 to August 31. Map showing all tornado warnings associated with Harvey from August (Source: Iowa State University) Weekly Cat Report 20

21 Hurricane Harvey (2017) vs. Tropical Storm Allison (2001) The impact of Hurricane Harvey raises the question of comparison to 2001 s Tropical Storm Allison. Both systems were similar in their slow-motion across the western Gulf of Mexico and prompted substantial rainfall over the course of several days. The primary difference is that Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane; while Allison came ashore with 50 mph (85 kph) winds. Almost all of Allison s damage was on account of extreme flooding that affected the greater Houston, TX metro region and areas eastward in southern Louisiana. With Harvey, while the inland flood portion will be the predominant driver of financial losses, there was a notable wind damage component as well. Tropical Storm Allison June 5-12, 2001 What is perhaps most striking about the catastrophic damage impact from Harvey, is that the city of Houston made many major upgrades to infrastructure in the aftermath of Allison and Harvey still overwhelmed. One of the most major changes was in the city s Medical Center, where the UT Health Medical School endured hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. As an example of a Post-Allison initiative, hospitals moved their generators to higher floors and installed submarine doors to keep water from entering. Additionally, officials built berms around facilities. Harris County also worked closely with the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers to substantially upgrade and enlarge the county s system of rainwater-draining bayous. In all, more than USD900 million was spent on upgrading Sims Bayou in South Houston, Brays Bayou in western and central Houston, and White Oak Bayou in northwest Houston. In the 16 years since Allison, there have been numerous flash flooding events in addition to Hurricane Ike in 2008 which tested these new initiatives. For the most part, the new storm plans and infrastructure improvements had worked well. Allison rainfall (top) versus Harvey as of August 28 (bottom) Source: NOAA Perhaps the biggest difference in the Houston metro area since Allison has been the explosive boom in population and exposure. Weekly Cat Report 21

22 Miscellaneous NFIP Coverage The graphic below shows current NFIP coverage by county across the hardest-hit areas by Harvey. The data is based on the most recent statistics from NFIP and the U.S. Census Bureau. In Harris County, TX home to the city of Houston just one out of six homes currently have active NFIP policies in place. The rates of coverage are most pronounced immediately along the coastline, but decline into the singledigits once getting further inland. NFIP Coverage by Housing Unit per County Data: April 2017 NFIP 2016 U.S. Census Weekly Cat Report 22

23 Housing Unit Growth The graphic below shows an absolute increase in number of housing units per county since 2000 across the affected area. The highest increase of exposure in the last 16 years can be detected in Harris County (city of Houston) and across surrounding counties of greater Houston. Second highest increase can be observed further inland in a cluster of counties around Bexar (San Antonio) and Travis (Austin). Housing Unit Increase Per County Data: 2016 U.S. Census Weekly Cat Report 23

24 Population Growth The spatial distribution of recent population growth in the affected area correlates with focal points of housing development and is concentrated in large cities of Houston, San Antonio and Austin and across their metropolitan areas. Population Growth Per County Data: 2016 U.S. Census Weekly Cat Report 24

25 Financial Losses The scale of damage and impacts from Hurricane Harvey is just now getting under way. However, many rivers and bayous have yet to fully recede to normal levels and additional damage from flooding continues to occur. Additionally, Harvey s remnants continue to prompt numerous tornado touchdowns, gusty winds and heavy rainfall as it gradually begins to accelerate through the Southeast, Ohio Valley and the Northeast. Thus, it remains far too early to provide any specific economic or insured loss estimate at this time. With that in mind, it is clear that Hurricane Harvey has left a catastrophic path of devastation across a wide swath of southeast Texas and portions of extreme southwest Louisiana. Based on various public estimates being published, the overall economic cost from Harvey will minimally reach into the tens of billions of dollars (USD). This includes direct damage to property, automobiles, infrastructure, agriculture, offshore & onshore energy, and marine. It also assumes a significant cost resulting from business interruption to many sectors. Aerial view of flooding in Houston (Source: NOAA) From an insurance point of view, as mentioned previously, the relative lack of NFIP coverage in some of the hardest-hit areas will mean that an abnormally high portion of economic damage caused by flooding will not be covered by insurance. Hurricanes have historically shown a roughly 50 percent ratio of insured-to-economic loss damage. However, hurricanes that are primarily driven by coastal or inland flood tend to show lower percentages of coverage. Hurricane Matthew in 2016 only had roughly 40 percent of the overall economic cost covered by public and private insurance entities as most of the damage resulted from considerable inland flooding in North Carolina and South Carolina. This will be the costliest hurricane to strike the state of Texas since Hurricane Ike in September Ike cost the United States at least USD35 billion in economic damage; while public and private insurers paid more than USD20 billion (2017 USD). It will also far surpass losses from 2001 s Tropical Storm Allison which was previously considered the worst flood event in Houston s recorded history. In fact, Harvey s rainfall surpassed Allison in nearly half the time (2/3 days compared to five days). Allison cost an estimated USD11.9 billion in economic damage (2017 USD). Less than half of that cost (USD5.0 billion, 2017 USD) was covered by insurance. Bottom line: Hurricane Harvey will eventually end as one of the costliest natural disasters in United States history. It will take weeks until the full scope and magnitude of the damage is realized, but the reality is the economic impact will be substantial. Weekly Cat Report 25

26 Harvey Name Retirement The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is responsible for determining the official names for tropical cyclones around the world. In the rare case in which a tropical cyclone is particularly significant from a casualty and/or cost perspective, the WMO will retire the storm name. Below is the official list of retired hurricane names in the Atlantic Ocean. It is expected that Harvey will join this list. Weekly Cat Report 26

27 Tropical Storm Pakhar soaks southern China, Hong Kong Tropical Storm Pakhar made landfall in southern China s Guangdong province on August 27 with sustained wind speeds of 100 kph (65 mph). It had previously tracked across the northern tip of the Philippines Luzon Island and brought strong winds and heavy rainfall to Hong Kong and Macau too. At least 12 people were killed, the majority in China, and multiple more were injured. The storm caused significant disruption to travel and transportation throughout the region on August China s Ministry of Civil Affairs listed aggregated economic losses in four provinces at CNY370 million (USD56 million). Meteorological Recap The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began issuing warnings for Tropical Depression 16W on August 24 as an area of disturbed weather to the east of the Philippines rapidly organized under the influence of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear over the Philippine Sea. Just six hours later, in the early hours of August 25, the depression had sufficiently consolidated to become Tropical Storm Pakhar; the 14th named storm of the season in the North West Pacific Basin. The storm continued to track in a northwestward direction toward Luzon while intensifying further through August 25. At 08:15PM PHT local time (12:15 UTC) Pakhar made landfall of Casiguran, Aurora province, Philippines where it was locally named Jolina. Pakhar came ashore with sustained wind speeds of 65 kph (40 mph) making it a minimal tropical storm. Due to increasingly favorable atmospheric conditions and a quick traverse across Luzon Island, Pakhar did not weaken due to land interaction but emerged in the South China Sea early on August 26 as a strengthened system. It continued to track northwestward while slowly intensifying through the day and into August 27 attaining its peak intensity of 100 kph (65 mph) just prior to making landfall in Taishan City, Guangdong Province, China at 09:00AM CST local time (01:00 UTC). Pakhar tracked across the southwestern corner of Guangdong and into Guangxi Zhuang before completely dissipating late on August 27. Pakhar was the second tropical cyclone to affect southern portions of China and the Pearl River estuary in less than one week following the landfall of Typhoon Hato near Macau on August 23. The latest economic loss estimate for Typhoon Hato, which left 22 people dead or missing, stands at more than USD3.0 billion. Event Details Philippines TS Pakhar making landfall over China, 01:00UTC, August 27 (Source: NOAA) Across northern portions of Luzon nearly 3,400 people were affected in Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and Cordillera Regions including almost 400 who sought outage in evacuation centers. There were no reports of any casualties in the Philippines. Multiple reports of floodwaters reaching up to 0.9 meters (3.0 feet) in depth were lodged across northern Luzon including in Quezon City. School classes were suspended in 340 municipalities and 37 cities while dozens of municipalities additionally suspended all public and private sector work on August Sporadic power outages were also reported from across the affected areas. Weekly Cat Report 27

28 Travel and transportation was disrupted as four major roads sustained damage and at least eight domestic and 11 international flights were cancelled from August There were no reports of disruption to ferry services. Hong Kong Location, Date 24-hour rainfall total (mm) Sha Tin, Aug Ta Kwu Ling, Aug Ta Kwa Ling, Aug Sha Tin, Aug Waglan Island, Aug In addition to the 24-hour rainfall totals (from the World Meteorological Organization) listed in the table on the left, portions of Hong Kong also endured powerful winds with maximum gusts of 126 kph (78 mph) and 123 kph (76 mph) recorded at Waglan Island and Cheung Chau respectively on August 27. At least one person was killed and 62 others were injured throughout Hong Kong as the outer bands of Pakhar grazed the territory on August 27. Nearly one dozen sailors were rescued from a stricken vessel to the east of Hong Kong while two hikers were rescued from Kowloon Peak. Some 677 flights at Hong Kong International Airport were subject to cancellations or lengthy delays on August 27 while at least 42 flights aborted their landing attempts. A further 44 flights were diverted. Macau Eight people were injured in Macau as the result of the passage of Pakhar to the south of the territory prior to its landfall in Guangdong Province. Authorities received almost 100 reports of damage caused by Pakhar including 32 relating to hanging objects such as billboards and windows, 16 relating to flooding, and 10 related to toppled trees. There was also one report of a landslide though there was no significant damage associated with it. Some 65 flights were cancelled at Macau International Airport. China Preliminary reports from China s Ministry of Civil Affairs noted impacts due to Pakhar in multiple provinces including Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi Zhuang, and Hainan. At least 12 people were killed including nine in Yunnan and three in Guangxi Zhuang. Some 14,300 residents were evacuated, the vast majority of who were in Guangdong. In Guangdong and Guangxi Zhuang Provinces some 3,900 hectares (9,635 acres) of crops were damaged of which at least 100 hectares (245 acres) were destroyed. In addition, approximately 100 homes in Guangxi Zhuang sustained damage. Financial Losses China s Ministry of Civil Affairs preliminarily listed losses in Guangdong, Guangxi Zhuang, Guizhou, and Yunnan at CNY370 million (USD56 million). Weekly Cat Report 28

29 Monsoonal deluge floods Mumbai Torrential monsoonal rain led to widespread flooding in the city of Mumbai and southern portions of Gujarat state, India, on August 29. At least 12 people were killed or listed as missing while almost a dozen others sustained injuries. The flooding led to widespread disruption to travel and transportation in and around the city as streets were gridlocked and train and bus services were cancelled. Disruption was also noted at Chhatrapati International Airport. Preliminary reports from the Indian insurance industry suggests claims payouts will reach INR5.0 billion (USD80 million); which is far smaller than the 2005 Mumbai floods and the 2015 Chennai floods. Flooded road, Thane, August 29 (Source: The Times of India) At least five people were killed in and around Mumbai on August 29 as extensive flooding followed prolonged torrential rainfall over much of the city. Parts of the city which is situated on the west coast of India in the state of Maharashtra received as much as millimeters (11.7 inches) of rainfall in less than 12 hours. Three of the fatalities were reported as the result of a collapsed house in Mumbai while the other two were reported from the neighboring city of Thane. At least seven more people were missing, at least two of who were feared to have fallen down manholes. Eleven more people were injured in weather-related incidents. Widespread disruption to travel and transportation ensued as streets, roads, and railway lines were submerged. Hundreds of vehicles were abandoned on flooded roads while multiple local train services were subject to lengthy delays or cancelled. Several railways stations were also inundated prompting the evacuation of all passengers while Andheri, Santacruz, and Khar subways were closed. At least 10 flights were cancelled at Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport, seven were diverted, and multiple more were delayed by up to one hour. Flooding in specific localities was also noted in local media including at the King Edward Memorial Hospital in Parel where some 50 patients were evacuated to higher levels of the building. Hospitals at Sion and Nair were also impacted by flooding and power outages. Some of the worst affected neighborhoods were Dadar, Khar, Bandra, Lalbaug, Kalina, Sion, Byculla, Matunga, Wadala, and Parel. Thousands of customers were additionally affected by power outages in Khar-Danda, Pali Hill, Carter Road, Bandra, Ghatkopar, Bhandup, Mulund, and Santacruz. Mumbai (Source: The Times of India) Portions of southern Gujarat state were also affected by heavy rainfall on August 29 which led to flooding in parts of Saurashtra and Ahmedabad. Widespread disruption was reported but there were no reports of any casualties or fatalities in the state at the time of this writing. A report in the Economic Times cited Indian insurance officials saying that insured losses were expected at INR5.0 billion (USD80 million). Most of the claims will be from the motor and health sectors, and businesses that were flooded. This is far lower than the 2005 Mumbai floods (INR30 billion (USD470 million)) and the 2015 Chennai floods (INR50 billion (USD782 billion)). Weekly Cat Report 29

30 Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Flooding (Yemen) At least 18 people were killed and a further 32 were listed as missing as flash floods swept through the cities of Taizz and Ibb in southern Yemen on August 30. At least 10 of the fatalities were reported in Taizz where security officials reported water depths of up to 3.5 meters (11.5 feet) in places following intense downpours. Local residents reported that it was the heaviest rainfall experienced in Taizz in at least 20 years. Scores of vehicles were swept away and multiple homes were destroyed. Portions of Jibla, to the south of Ibb, were also impacted. Landslide (China) At least 27 people were killed while a further 8 were listed as missing following a landslide that struck the south-central Chinese province of Guizhou on August 28. Eight people were rescued alive but injured following the landslide which struck Zhangjiawan Township, in the city of Bijie at approximately 10:40AM CST (02:40 UTC). Some 250 homes and other structures were destroyed in the village which sits on the southern edge of the Dalou Mountain Range. China s Ministry of Civil Affairs listed economic losses at CNY15 million (USD2.3 million). Severe Weather (China) Powerful thunderstorms across south-central China from August resulted in economic losses of CNY120 million (USD18 million) in Hubei, Chongqing, and Sichuan. Strong wind gusts and large hail resulted in damaged to 7,500 hectares (18,535 acres) of crops of which 200 hectares (495 acres) were destroyed. Additional damage to homes was also reported as 200 were destroyed and a further 700 sustained damage. Flooding (Sudan) Heavy rainfall triggered significant flooding in portions of Sudan during recent weeks. At least 500 buildings and a number of schools and healthcare facilities were damaged or destroyed last week alone following particularly heavy rainfall from August Among the worst affected areas were parts of North and South Darfur, Northern State, Sennar and the capital, Khartoum, where the Blue Nile River crested at the highest level in a century. Over the past month, flooding has damaged some 3,000 homes in Khartoum and the Al-Jazira region. Authorities have warned of further severe flooding that could occur later this week. Weekly Cat Report 30

31 Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of the mean surface air temperatures (2 meters above the surface). Probabilities indicate the percent of ensemble members that predict temperatures significantly above normal, near normal, or significantly below normal. Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly Cat Report 31

32 Global Precipitation Anomaly Forecast This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of accumulated precipitation. Probabilities are derived from the fraction of ensemble precipitation forecasts exceeding various thresholds. Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly Cat Report 32

33 Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies ( C) The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS' operational daily global 5 km Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer. Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp ( C) Departure from Last Year ( C) Tropical Atlantic Ocean (1,025 miles E of Martinique) Eastern Gulf of Mexico (130 miles ESE of Pensacola, Florida) Western Gulf of Mexico (60 miles SE of Corpus Christi, Texas) Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) Eastern Indian Ocean (505 miles WSW of Bengkulu, Indonesia) 28.9 N/A Western Indian Ocean (115 miles ENE of Victoria, Seychelles) Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NESDIS, National Data Buoy Center Weekly Cat Report 33

34 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present. 90% Mid-Aug IRI/CPC Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast 90% Probability (%) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% El Niño Neutral La Niña El Niño Neutral La Niña Climatological 0% ASO 2017 SON 2017 OND 2017 NDJ 2017 DJF JFM Time period FMA 2018 MAM 2018 AMJ % El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5 C) that periodically develop across the eastcentral equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5 C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average. El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3- month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5 C (-0.5 C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). Source: NOAA Weekly Cat Report 34

35 Global Tropics Outlook Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly Cat Report 35

36 Current Tropical Systems Location and Intensity Information Name* Location Winds Center of Circulation Motion** TD Harvey 32.5 N, 91.4 W 20 mph 35 miles (55 kilometers) E of Monroe, Louisiana NE at 10 mph HU Irma 17.3 N, 34.8 W 115 mph 720 miles (1,160 kilometers) W of Cabo Verde Islands WNW at 12 mph TS Lidia 22.7 N, W 65 mph 20 miles (30 kilometers) SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico NNW at 13 mph TS Sanvu 28.1 N, E 85 mph 95 kilometers (60 miles) NNW of Chichi Jima, Japan N at 8 mph * TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center Weekly Cat Report 36

37 Global Earthquake Activity ( M4.0): August Significant EQ Location and Magnitude ( M6.0) Information Date Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter 08/27/ S E km 107 kilometers (66 miles) NE of Lorengau, Papua New Guinea 08/31/ S E km 72 kilometers (45 miles) NE of Muara Siberut, Indonesia Source: United States Geological Survey Weekly Cat Report 37

38 U.S. Weather Threat Outlook Potential Threats Building high pressure across the western United States will allow temperatures to reach well above normal levels throughout much of the West. Daytime highs will run many degrees above normal through most of next week. Though not explicitly shown on this map, there will be a focus in the western Gulf of Mexico on the potential development of tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor for additional development. Much of the Gulf Coast remains in the midst of recovering from catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Harvey. An active weather pattern will bring a series of storms to southern Alaska through the middle of next week. Heavy rain, high waves and gusty winds will occur. Severe drought conditions persist across the Northern Tier and parts of the Midwest. Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly Cat Report 38

39 Current U.S. River Flood Stage Status Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage Location Flood Stage Current Stage % of Full Capacity East Fork San Jacinto River near New Caney, Texas % West Fork San Jacinto River near Porter, Texas % Patuxent River near Unity, Maryland % San Bernard River near Boling, Texas % San Jacinto River near Sheldon, Texas % Source: United States Geological Survey Weekly Cat Report 39