ECWMF Workshop Providing Tailor-made Forecasts to the Community. Jim Nelson BYU Michael Souffront Many Others ECMWF, NASA, Esri, NOAA, and many more

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1 ECWMF Workshop Providing Tailor-made Forecasts to the Community Jim Nelson BYU Michael Souffront Many Others ECMWF, NASA, Esri, NOAA, and many more

2 Stakeholders They Make the Decisions Spatial Databases and Tools Model Files Custom Python Scripts Simple Web Interfaces Engineers, Decision Makers, Advocacy Groups, Public

3 Global Modeling: Challenges Cyberinfrastructure and Workflows Web apps and web services Partnerships, trainings, and collaboration Accessibility tools and programmatic extraction

4 Forecast frequency: Updated daily Forecast lead time: Up to 30 days Forecast variable: River Flow Forecast type: Probabilistic Return period exceeded: < 2 year (green) > 2 year (yellow) > 5 year (red) > 20 year (purple) Forecast resolution: Daily and 0.1 degree Modelling system: ENS + HTESSEL + Lisflood

5 Making it tailor-made Higher density forecasts Every River! Services - Providing Local Access to Global Forecast Data

6 Streamflow Forecasting

7 GloFAS - Limited to larger drainage areas

8 Downscaling process Mapping gridded runoff to basins/stream network Muskingum Routing with RAPID

9 ECMWF Grid Resolutions 51 Ensemble Low - ~16 km Single High - ~8 km ERA-Interim - ~40 km

10 Same Forecasts as ECMW Validation

11 Tethys - Software Selection Spatial Data Storage Spatial Analysis Spatial Visualization Web Framework Spatial Publishing

12 Tethys Platform - Portal/Apps ArcGIS Server ArcGIS Server ArcGIS Server JavaScript API

13 SERVIR Project - GEOGLOWS Flood Mapping Streamflow Forecasting

14 Tethys Streamflow Forecasting Application

15 Tethys Streamflow Forecasting Application

16 Products - Forecasts

17 Products - Historical Perspective

18 Products Long term average flows

19 Products Flow Duration Curves

20 Products Warning Visualization Services

21 Products Warning Visualization Services

22 Service Oriented Architecture

23 API Example Identify your reach ID Must be logged into Tethys.byu.edu for authentication API Documentation _id=57340&forecast_folder=most_recent&stat_type=mean

24 Workflow Tethys Server ECMWF BYU/SERVIR/Azure

25 Custom View Using Web Services DHM Pilot Tethys Portal

26 Bangladesh Transboundary Flow Forecast ICIMOD Tethys Portal

27 Flood Mapping

28 Add to other web portals

29 But How accurate is the model?

30 Toolbox Objective 1. Provide Python and MATLAB tools to assist in validation 2. Allow flexibility for calculating different metrics for different time periods 3. Versatile enough for use with historical and forecasted data Hydrostats Documentation

31 Metrics Results Error Metric Marsyangdi, Nepal Mawande, Tanzania Pinar Quemado, Dominican Republic R Correlation Coefficient Spectral Angle Coefficient

32 Pilot Demo

33 Tethys Open Source Collaborative Scalable, Replicable Developed at BYU for: NSF NASA-SERVIR NASA-GEOGLOWS National Water Model US Army Corps CUAHSI Many Applications (see next several slides) Global Streamflow Metrics Flood Mapping Grace GLDAS

34 Streamflow Prediction App

35 Short Term High Intensity Weather (HIWAT)

36 Brazil - CEMADEN

37 Tanzania NHM

38 Peru - SENAMHI

39 Colombia - IDEAM

40 Bangladesh Transboundary Flow Forecast

41 Nepal Flood Inundation/Impact

42 Dominican Republic (Haiti) - INDRHI Combined with WMO Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)

43 Reservoir Management

44 Collaborative Development of many Apps

45

46 NASA SERVIR PORTAL APP WAREHOUSE WMO LA PLATA PORTAL ICIMOD NEPAL PORTAL

47 Stakeholders YOU Make the Decisions Spatial Databases and Tools ECWMF/Glofas Forecasts Model Files Streamflow Forecast Services Custom Python Scripts Bangladesh Your Custom Flood Impact Streamflow Simple WebFlows Transboundary Web App MappingTool Prediction Interfaces Engineers, Decision ICIMOD, DHM, FFWD, Makers, Advocacy BWD, Pakistan, Mercy Groups, Public Corps, Practical Action, Others