Challenges of growth environmental update study

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1 Challeges of growth evirometal update study Climate Adaptatio Case-Studies: EUROCONTROL Commetary Jue 2011 EUROCONTROL

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3 Backgroud I 2008 EUROCONTROL commissioed a specific Eviromet Techical Report to accompay its 2008 Challeges of Growth Report (CG08), a periodic assessmet of the potetial costraits to growth facig the Europea air traffic maagemet (ATM) system. The research for the CG08 Eviromet Report was carried out by the OMEGA Cosortium, a partership of UK Uiversities, ad the UK Met Office. It idetified for the first time at Europea level the potetial of climate chage-related effects, such as global sea-level rise ad a icrease i extreme weather evets (stormiess), to impact the Europea ATM system. Cosequetly, EUROCONTROL commissioed OMEGA ad the Met Office to carry out a set of further, more detailed, case-studies i the areas idetified as potetially most sigificat for Europea ATM. The research team carried out modellig ad aalysis of potetial impacts over a timescale i the followig three areas: Case-study 1: Potetial shiftig traffic demad due to climate-related chages i tourist destiatio prefereces ad resource availability i the Mediterraea basi (e.g. potable water); Case-study 2: A qualitative assessmet of potetial sea-level rise ad floodig at three coastal ad lowlyig airports icludig groud trasport access ad ifrastructure; ad, Case-study 3: The potetial impact of icreased extreme weather (covectio) evets o e-route air traffic i the Maastricht Upper Airspace, oe of the most cogested i Europe. The objective of explorig these issues further through case-studies was to make the geeral fidigs of the iitial report more tagible, to explore possible outcomes i more detail ad to examie gaps ad weakesses i our uderstadig of these risks. The work was carried out i the first Quarter of 2010 ad thus represets a sapshot of the uderstadig at that poit i time. The completed case-study reports ca be accessed from the EUROCONTROL website: eviromet/public/subsite_homepage/homepage.html This additioal commetary is iteded to accompay the case-study reports ad provides EUROCONTROL s aalysis of their fidigs i relatio to the plaed future developmet of the Europea ATM system. However, whilst this risk is felt directly by the ATM system ad the wider aviatio idustry, EUROCONTROL also believes it to be a matter for govermets ad society as a whole, sice it could have sigificat implicatios for both mobility ad the global ecoomy. It is also worth otig that this topic will be picked up o i the Sigle Europea Sky ATM Research programme (SESAR) uder the project coverig log-term evirometal risk, which EUROCONTROL leads, ad to which this set of case-studies will be provided as a cotributio. CG08 Climate Adaptatio Case Studies: EUROCONTROL Commetary Jue

4 Case-study 1 Case-study 1 focuses o a Mediterraea coutry with a sigificat percetage of its GDP sourced from tourism ad where, due to geographic locatio, aviatio is also the key meas of tourist arrivals. The study cosiders how a rise i temperatures ad chages i humidity might affect tourists thermal comfort levels (a idicator of the rage of pleasatly acceptable temperatures). As a cosequece some tourists may thus fid their chose destiatio ucomfortably hot durig the traditioal peak holiday (summer) moths, leadig to some displacemet of high seaso tourism traffic either to other destiatios or to the sprig ad autum shoulder moths (Dimitriou & Drew, 2010). Accordig to the aalysis, carried out usig a Met Office climate model ad EUROCONTROL traffic forecasts, predicted temperature ad humidity trajectories suggest that sigificat effects of climate chage are ulikely to be felt i the case-study State, ad by proxy similar areas i the same regio, before 2030 but that by 2050 the reductio i summer demad could be as high as aroud 40% (Dimitriou & Drew, 2010). If these chages i traffic demad do occur, it is likely that aircraft operators, whose assets are by defiitio mobile, would adapt quickly to the ew situatio. Air Navigatio Service Providers ad Airport Operators however, with their fixed facilities of airports, cotrol cetres ad towers, ad their airspace improvemet packages, may discover that their ivestmet plaig delivers capacity for the summer peaks that may o loger be ecessary, particularly as preset plaig horizos are focused o meetig aual demad growth of % betwee ow ad 2030 (EUROCONTROL 2010a). A further ucertaity from a demad plaig perspective arises because it is ot kow to what extet society would adapt its holiday period selectio, which is largely determied by fixed school holidays, i order to map to a chage i the attractiveess of the seasos of a particular destiatio or regio. EUROCONTROL s aalysis therefore cocludes that, as i the short-to-medium term, traffic is still predicted to grow substatially, curret plaig horizos should ecessarily focus o meetig demad before 2030; i other words, preset capacity ad ifrastructure plas will still be required if that demad is to be accommodated. (EUROCONTROL, 2010a, figure 1). However, aalysis also cocludes that log term plaig should seek to better uderstad this issue ad, where possible, take the fidigs of the study ito accout. I particular, it seems prudet that the busiess case for ATM ifrastructure proposals with a life expectacy of more that 20 years (i.e. post 2030) should take possible climate-chage iduced demad chages ito accout where possible ad that these factors will become more importat to decisio-makig over time as the aticipated climate impacts approach ad become more certai. Figure 1: Average aual growth by State for a sceario icorporatig both regulatio ad growth (STATFOR Sceario C: regulated growth) (EUROCONTROL, 2010a) 4

5 Notwithstadig the perspective that preset ATM plaig is maily aimed at performace improvemets eeded over the ext 20 years whe o sigificat climate iduced demad chages are expected, EUROCONTROL cosiders that this iitial case-study has relevace for the etire Global ad Europea ATM system i the loger-term (2030+). Further studies ito this topic ad closer liks betwee the ATM/Aviatio Sector, the Tourism Sector ad possibly other iterested parties such as Govermets, will be eeded if this risk is to be maaged appropriately ad if uecessary, iappropriate or mistimed ifrastructure ivestmet is to be avoided. EUROCONTROL ca see four potetially sigificat issues arisig from this iitial case-study: Where forecast demad is ot realised due to chagig tourist prefereces the pressure to accommodate icreasig throughput may be eased ad a lesser ivestmet i ifrastructure capacity developmet may be warrated. Where demad is displaced to the shoulder seasos of Sprig ad Autum this may reduce the aual peak i demad by spreadig it over a greater proportio of the year. This may allow more optimum use of parts of the ATM system. There are however other major iflueces o the timig of family holidayrelated demad icludig the schedulig of school holidays, which presetly ted to be cetred o the summer period. If such iflueces do ot chage i-lie with chages i tourism prefereces the it is ot ureasoable to coclude that a sigificat elemet of demad will be shifted geographically rather tha temporally. Where tourism prefereces are displaced geographically, this will stimulate chagig demad patters. Although this will almost certaily lead to a reductio i demad to some destiatios it also implies that there may be icreases i demad to alterative destiatios. This meas that preset forecasts for such icreasigly popular destiatios may be sigificatly- exceeded give that such climatechage drive demad icreases are ot accouted for i curret plaig. Therefore, uless capacity plaig is sesitive to the risks from such potetial displacemet of tourism demad, ATM capacity ad ifrastructure plaig could be iappropriate i scale, timig or locatio. Of course, it should ot be overlooked that if tourists from Norther Europe are choosig to holiday i destiatios closer to home, this may stimulate a modal shift from air travel to the trai, boat or car (Dimitriou & Drew, 2010). Some degree of mitigatio of these effects could be achieved by diversificatio i tourism markets i those areas affected, although this is ot yet fully uderstood (Dimitriou & Drew, 2010). The study predicts that these climate chage ad tourism related risks geerally become more sigificat i the loger term (post 2030). It also cocludes however that some effects such as the policy respose to climate chage will be felt before 2030 (e.g. charges ad taxes) ad therefore eeds to be cosidered i preset plaig activities. For the latter, the EUROCONTROL traffic forecast scearios already iclude a elemet to cover evirometal costs ad the implicatios for ecoomies etc. The study also cocludes that robust ad commoly agreed iformatio o this topic is ot readily available at preset ad that cosequetly, further detailed studies are required if this risk is to be adequately uderstood. This lack of good iformatio o what has the potetial to be a very sigificat busiess risk, sigals the eed for joit public-private research ito this topic, withi a overarchig coordiatio strategy. There is some recet evidece of the elevatio of Climate Adaptatio as a key aviatio ageda item: for example, the iclusio of this topic i the ICAO 2010 Colloquium o Aviatio ad Climate Chage. EUROCONTROL s aalysis therefore cocludes that although preset capacity ad ifrastructure plas will still be required if ear-term forecast capacity demads are to be met, it is evertheless prudet to take possible climate-chage iduced demad chages ito accout i loger-term plaig, particularly whe the busiess case for ATM ifrastructure proposals with a life expectacy of more that 20 years is beig cosidered. Therefore, although it is ot expected that sigificat chages would be see before 2030 this topic should be take accout of particularly i the plaig of ew ifrastructure i both curret ad potetial future destiatios. However, further detailed studies are required if this risk is to be adequately uderstood. Additioally, although the study focused o oe Mediterraea coutry the results are potetially applicable to States across this regio due to the similarities i tourism patters ad curret climate as well as to other areas aroud the globe which might be susceptible to similar impacts of climate chage. As oted above, this topic will be picked up o i SESAR uder the project coverig log-term evirometal risk, which EUROCONTROL leads, ad to which this case-study will be provided as a iput. CG08 Climate Adaptatio Case Studies: EUROCONTROL Commetary Jue

6 Case-study 2 The iitial Challeges of Growth 2008 Eviromet Techical Report (Thomas et al, 2009) idetified 34 Europea Airports potetially at risk of sea level rise by the ed of the cetury. This study focuses i greater detail o three of these airports. The study uses a 4 C Global Mea Surface Temperature icrease sceario to model the projected sea-level rise expected for each airport locatio for this amout of warmig by C is at the upper ed of predicted climate scearios but is ow accepted by may i the scietific commuity as beig the most likely sceario give the lack of progress i achievig sigificat global cuts i emissios (Met Office 2009). Iertia i the climate system meas that the full effects of today s greehouse gas emissios (or of ay emissio reductios iduced by regulatio) may ot be see for several years to come. Thus the use of a 4 C sceario i the study ca be see as illustratig both the potetial worst-case situatio, but also oe which, give curret emissios projectios, remais highly possible. The study idicates sigificat floodig risk for several airports will be experieced by aroud 2099 but that some icreased floodig could already be experieced by mid-cetury. The study also poits out that i some cases the actual airport itself may ot be the mai ifrastructure risk but that there might be groud trasport ifrastructure which could pose a much larger-scale egieerig ad ecoomic problem for mitigatio strategies (de Gusmão, 2010). EUROCONTROL aalysis cosiders this specific climaterelated risk, with over 30 airports potetially impacted, to be very sigificat for the Europea ATM system albeit with a (potetially) log lead-i time. The potetial uplaed loss of oe or more ECAC ruways is a sigificat risk for the efficiecy ad delay performace of the etire Europea ATM system. This ca be evideced by the closure of oe ruway i 2001 which led to a icrease i average Europea delay from aroud 1-2 miutes up to 40 miutes withi a few hours (EUROCONTROL 2000), or as was witessed i Witer 2010 or the 2010 volcaic ash evet, whe the uforesee closure of key Europea Airports or airspace led to delays across the cotiet ad cacellatios of flights o a global scale. Therefore aalysis also evisages that this is ot just a Europea risk but a global oe, where eve temporary loss of ay major airport assets could have kock-o effects aroud the globe. As oted above, whilst this risk is felt directly by the ATM system ad the wider aviatio idustry, EUROCONTROL also believes it to be a matter for govermets ad society as a whole, sice it could have sigificat implicatios for both mobility ad the global ecoomy. Flood defeces are very expesive, especially where these are required for wide-spread ifrastructure such as groud-trasport etworks. It is poitless for oe part of the global itegrated trasport system to become fully protected agaist this risk, if aother vital part does ot. However, plaed ATM efficiecy improvemets together with operatioal improvemets aimed at improvig system resiliece ad flexibility could (if correctly aliged), go some way towards mitigatig this risk ad its adverse effects. Notably, although the study looks at the log-term cosequeces of sea-level rise for coastal airports, it also suggests that it is possible that some impacts will be see at some locatios before this; for example there is likely to be a icrease i umber ad severity of storm surges much earlier tha this. This dictates that a combied ad coordiated suite of adaptatio measures such as istallig flood defeces as well as cotigecy plas for weather-ihibited operatios, ad the resultig delays ad diversios, may eed to be cosidered withi curret plaig horizos for those airports cosidered to be most at risk. EUROCONTROL otes that the ucertaities i the study (due to its limited brief ad commoly agreed iformatio) ad the preset shortage of available data o this topic strogly suggest that more research is required, particularly at those locatios potetially most at risk. However it is to be oted that some studies that may help to uderstad this risk from a Europea perspective are uderway both withi idividual States ad orgaisatios ad uder Europea auspices (e.g. the Europea Commissio). This is also a matter to be covered i SESAR work-package , led by EUROCONTROL, which covers log-term evirometal risk. EUROCONTROL aalysis cocludes that chages to preset plas for implemetig ATM Operatioal Improvemets (e.g. SESAR) i relatio to this specific risk are ot ecessary i the short- ad medium-term at most locatios. However, as the impacts of sea-level rise may be experieced from aroud mid-cetury, there should be sufficiet time to put adaptatio strategies i place, keepig i mid that with over 30 Europea airports potetially at risk of loss of ruway capacity through such impacts as sea-level rise ad storm surges, the future impact o ruway operatios could be very sigificat for the Europea ATM system. Of particular sigificace is the umber of secodary or diversioary airports which may also be closed if the mai airport were closed. It ca therefore be cocluded that it would be prudet to begi cosiderig such issues i medium to log-term plaig. I order to do so, a greater uderstadig of the risk, its mitigatio ad the delegatio of roles ad resposibilities eeds to be developed soo. Ultimately, however, respodig effectively to this risk will ot lie solely withi aviatio but will require the coordiated effort of may iterested public ad commercial parties. 6

7 Case-study 3 The purpose of Case-Study 3 was to ivestigate the likelihood of a icrease i severe weather evets, specifically icreased covective activity which iduces stormiess, ad how this may impact Europea ATM. The study cocetrated o the airspace cotrolled by the Maastricht Upper Air Cotrol Cetre (MUAC) which covers the upper airspace of four Europea States ad is maaged by EUROCONTROL o their behalf. Maastricht Upper Airspace (MUA) is oe of the busiest areas of airspace i Europe ad has a high proportio of climbig ad descedig traffic. It therefore presets a valid case-study to represet Europea Upper Airspace. The study does ot cover the additioal risks from icreased stormiess at ad aroud airports ad termial areas, although this eve today is sigificat, for example 28% of flow-maagemet delays at airports i Jue 2010 was due to weather (EUROCONTROL 2010b). The study results idicated both a predicted icrease i idividual occurreces of stormiess, as well as a exteded period of potetial stormiess for a greater proportio of the year rather tha durig the traditioal summer moths. Impacts are expected from as early as The implicatios for this i terms of reduced aual ATM performace are ot yet kow (McCarthy ad Budd, 2010). The study also idetified a potetial decrease i route efficiecy whe aalysig operatios for a specific day experiecig stormiess whe compared with a ormal weather day, suggestig that the weather system may have had a egative impact o the fuctioig of the airspace (please see the study for further details of both aalyses) (McCarthy ad Budd, 2010). EUROCONTROL aalysis therefore cocludes that although this caot be iterpreted as statistically sigificat it ca be take to idicate a potetial associatio betwee a icrease i severe weather ad a decrease i route efficiecy which warrats further research. Moreover, although it is early to be cosiderig mitigatio, this is somethig which eeds to be take accout of i the plaig of operatioal improvemets to a umber of ATM Key performace areas icludig: safety, capacity, efficiecy, flexibility, predictability ad eviromet. However, it should be oted that SESAR is already addressig requiremets for improvig ATM performace i each of these areas. SESAR will also develop much more itegrated iformatio ad commuicatios i its System Wide Iformatio Maagemet (SWIM)-related workpackages, which will cover MET data ad forecastig. These kids of operatioal improvemets are iheretly aliged with the challeges that may arise from icreased stormiess, ad climate chage-related operatioal impacts i geeral. So some mitigatio of these effects is already beig addressed. However, although the study does ot cover the additioal risks from icreased stormiess i termial airspace (TMAs) ad at airports, for example risk of delay arisig from capacity reductio (e.g. temporary airport closures), this is also a area which eeds to be cosidered for further research as it is already a curret issue of sigificace: as metioed above 28% of flow-maagemet delays at airports i Jue 2010 were due to weather (EUROCONTROL, 2010). O a global scale, several other regios are already susceptible to regular occurreces of extreme weather. Although the EUROCONTROL study focused o a particular area ad thus caot be directly extrapolated to areas with differig climatic coditios, the implicatio is that chages i extreme weather patters, ad the associated impacts for ATM may be experieced i other regios. CG08 Climate Adaptatio Case Studies: EUROCONTROL Commetary Jue

8 The Bigger Picture The CG08 case-studies cosidered three potetial impacts of climate chage o aviatio i isolatio. However, i additio to cosiderig the idividual implicatios of each we should also cosider the combied sceario where these or other combiatios of climate chagedrive impacts coicide. Give the itercoectedess of the ATM system, as evideced by the kock-o effect of the closure of the ruways at oe Europea airport (see above), or the temporary disruptio i 2010 caused by the volcaic ash cloud ad extreme witer weather, it is essetial to cosider system-wide effects i cojuctio with localised impacts. Further, give the likages betwee the air trasport idustry ad other parts of the ecoomy, such as tourism, there is a eed to cosider greater itegratio of strategic plaig betwee aviatio ad other critical sectors. 8

9 Coclusios Both the origial 2008 work doe by the OMEGA Cosortium, ad the follow up scopig case-studies carried out i 2010 which expad thereo, highlight a sigificat risk for climate chage-related impacts to affect the Europea ATM system. This risk icreases over time. Three potetial impacts have bee covered i the case-studies icludig climate-iduced chages i demad patters which affect both the timig ad locatio of traffic peaks ad flows, floodig risk to airports operatios with potetial for a system wide effect, ad icreased extreme weather evets affectig e-route capacity, ad causig a icrease i track miles ad delay. Risks requirig further research have bee idetified i each area. Moreover, a key area for further cosideratio is a combied sceario where these or other combiatios of climate chage drive impacts coicide i order to idetify the possible system-wide impacts this may iduce. Thus although the timescales over which these impacts may begi to be experieced varies from 2020 to 2090, aalysis suggests that it would be prudet to begi cosiderig such likelihoods i curret medium to logterm plaig, as well as to carry out further research ito the likely magitude ad timig of such evets withi curret projects such as SESAR. This will eable iformed adaptatio plaig across the sector. It is evidet that i recet years may millios of Euro have bee ad cotiue to be correctly ivested i uderstadig ad mitigatig the impact of aviatio o the climate but it also seems that to-date, society s ivestmet i uderstadig the potetial risk from ievitable climate chage o mobility etworks is laggig behid. It is ecouragig however that this topic is presetly startig to attract iterest ad ivestmet. ATM eeds to be playig a active role i supportig this edeavour. However, climate chage adaptatio plaig is ot a issue for ATM, or eve the aviatio idustry, aloe but is a collective challege which, give the likages betwee the air trasport idustry ad other parts of the ecoomy, such as tourism, eeds to be addressed by all stakeholders i a regio. This idicates a eed for greater itegratio of strategic plaig betwee aviatio ad other critical sectors. Moreover, as ATM is a trasatioal idustry, adaptatio actio i oe regio or atio ca be egated by a lack of adaptatio actio elsewhere. Give the itercoectedess of the ATM system, it is essetial to cosider system-wide effects i cojuctio with localised impacts. This ecessitates tacklig the problem at local, atioal ad iteratioal levels. Ideed, give the global ature of the issue beig faced, a itegrated iteratioal approach would seem logical. It is, of course, essetial that aviatio cotiues the substatial progress it has made towards mitigatig its evirometal impact i geeral ad reducig its release of greehouse gas emissios i particular. However, with the impacts of climate chage ow a clearly-idetified, if ot fully uderstood, risk for the sector, adaptig to that emergig reality should ow become a essetial part of medium to loger term plaig. CG08 Climate Adaptatio Case Studies: EUROCONTROL Commetary Jue

10 Next Steps Sice the origial CG08 report was completed several other aviatio orgaisatios have icluded this issue i their work programmes. These iclude ICAO, ACI-World ad CANSO. There are also ow two EU-fuded research projects EWENT ad WEATHER lookig ito this area as well as a umber of ECAC States ad idividual orgaisatios, such as the ANSPs NATS ad Avior, who have ow iitiated studies with a view to plaig local mitigatio strategies which will cover aviatio. The EUROCONTROL Agecy will cotiue this work through SESAR Work Package 16, which it is leadig, specifically through project which focuses o Future Regulatory Scearios ad Evirometal Risk. The project will address the risk ad potetial implicatios of climate chage adaptatio for the Europea ATM system, as well as the future regulatory resposes which may etail as a result. As work package leader, EUROCONTROL will therefore cotiue to be actively egaged i this area. Rachel Burbidge Ala Melrose Adrew Watt EUROCONTROL Jue

11 Refereces de Gusmão, D. (2010) (2010) Case-Study 2: Europea Airports ad Sea Level Rise, i Thomas, C. ad Drew, A. J. (eds) (2010) Challeges of Growth Evirometal Update Study: Climate Adaptatio Case Studies, EUROCONTROL, Brussels Dimitriou, D. ad Drew, A. J. (2010) Case-Study 1: Chages to Tourist Activity i Greece, i Thomas, C. ad Drew, A. J. (eds) (2010) Challeges of Growth Evirometal Update Study: Climate Adaptatio Case Studies, EUROCONTROL, Brussels EUROCONTROL (2000) EFP Case Study, CODA, EUROCONTROL, Brussels EUROCONTROL (2010) (a) Log-Term Forecast Flight Movemets , STATFOR, EUROCONTROL, Brussels EUROCONTROL (2010) (b) CODA Digest Jue 2010, CODA, EUROCONTROL, Brussels McCarthy, R. ad Budd, L. (2010) Case-Study 3: Potetial Chages i Severe Covectio i Maastricht Upper Area Airspace, i Thomas, C. ad Drew, A. J. (eds) (2010) Challeges of Growth Evirometal Update Study: Climate Adaptatio Case Studies, EUROCONTROL, Brussels Met Office (2009) 4 Degrees ad Beyod, The UK Met Office [olie] available from: (accessed 26/08/2010) Thomas, C., McCarthy, R., Lewis, K., Boucher, O., Hayward, J., Owe, B., ad Liggis, F (2009) Challeges to Growth Evirometal Update Study, EUROCONTROL, Brussels

12 EUROCONTROL August Europea Orgaisatio for the Safety of Air Navigatio (EUROCONTROL) This documet is published by EUROCONTROL for iformatio purposes. It may be copied i whole or i part, provided that EUROCONTROL is metioed as the source ad it is ot used for commercial purposes (i.e. for fiacial gai). The iformatio i this documet may ot be modified without prior writte permissio from EUROCONTROL.