Grey Correlation Analysis of China's Electricity Imports and Its Influence Factors Hongjing Zhang 1, a, Feng Wang 1, b and Zhenkun Tian 1, c

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1 Applied Mechaics ad Materials Olie: ISSN: , Vols , pp doi:0.4028/ 204 Tras Tech Publicatios, Switzerlad Grey Correlatio Aalysis of Chia's Electricity Imports ad Its Ifluece Factors Hogjig Zhag, a, Feg Wag, b ad Zheu Tia, c School of ecoomics ad maagemet, Northeast Diali Uiversity, Jili, Chia a zhaghogjig00@sia.com, b @qq.com, c tiaz.cool@63.com Keywords: Electricity imports; Grey correlatio aalysis; Grey modelig Abstract. Chia's electricity imports ad its ifluece factors of te years were aalyzed. O this basis, the electricity imports ad the ifluece factors of grey correlatio were calculated by usig grey correlatio aalysis method. It maes a coclusio that every ifluece factor s effect o electricity imports, ad establishes a grey model GM (, ) of electricity imports as well as its ifluece factors ad determies the quatitative relatioship betwee the selected ifluece factors ad electricity imported. The model has high accuracy, ad meets the practical requiremets, so that it maes a better load forecastig for our coutry ad provides a theoretical basis for taig some electricity import measures. Itroductio I recet years, with the rapid developmet of our ecoomy, people's livig stadards improve ad the electricity cosumptio i the whole society presets a stability to speed up the mometum, particularly i the border provices ad autoomous regios i our coutry, i order to satisfy ow developmet ad resistig to atural disasters, it is ecessary to power. Our coutry electric power is imported by Guagzhou, Shezhe from Hog Kog, Heihe from Russia, Dadog from North Korea ad Simao from Burma. Be ready to power predictio ad related research, which eables the developmet of electric power idustry to adapt to the requiremet of the atioal ecoomic ad social developmet, to promote the developmet of power idustry itself ad safeguard Chia's border provices ecoomy ruig smoothly for the most part. Usig the grey icidece theory, this paper maes quatitative aalysis with electricity imports various ifluece factors o the electricity imports, commutates power import ad correlatio betwee various ifluecig factors, ad accordig to differet correlatio, determie the grey correlatio model associated variables. At last establish the grey GM (, ) model, which is the basis of forecast electricity imports. Ifluecig Factors of Grey Correlatio Aalysis of Our Import Power Based o the Chia statistical yearboo, Chia's most of the electricity is imported by Heihe, Hog Kog, Guagzhou, Shezhe, ad the mai factors ifluecig the electricity imported i our coutry iclude surface water resources, GDP, disposable icome ad hydroelectric fuel price ide. Use the quatitative ide of each ifluecig factors to aalyze the correlatio betwee them ad electricity imports from the perspective of correlatio aalysis. Because of the electricity imported from Heilogjiag provice ad Guagdog provice i Chia accouts for about % ad 87% of the total imports. Therefore, respectively, the two provice ifluecig factors sum o the basis of quatitative weightig.. Grey Correlatio Aalysis Theory. Suppose there are sub factors (, 2...) associated with mai factors ( 0 ), which are at least N raw data year by year, this series of value costitutig the sequece. Mai factors: 0 (i)(i=,2,...,).sub factors: (i)(=,2,...,,i=,2,...,). For compariso, stadardizig ad mae 0 ( i) o ( i) ( i ) ( ) i i i () All rights reserved. No part of cotets of this paper may be reproduced or trasmitted i ay form or by ay meas without the writte permissio of Tras Tech Publicatios, (#698324, Pesylvaia State Uiversity, Uiversity Par, USA-8/09/6,09:3:57)

2 Applied Mechaics ad Materials Vols After stadardizig 0 () i 0 () i The 0 () i () i 0 mi mi o ( ) i ( ) ma ma o ( ) i ( ) i i ( ) o ( ) i ( ) ma ma o ( ) i ( ) i (3) It is the poits of correlatio coefficiet of 0 ad i. Amog them, ρ=0.2. Compositig coefficiet of each poit ca be cocluded t the correlatio of i curves ad referece curves 0 : ri i( ) i (4) It is a measure of the correlatio betwee factors measurig system. Apparetly, their correlatio factors r i =, r i 0.5 or higher is geerally cosidered to sub ad mai factors related; If r i >r j, the correlatio of i to 0 is greater tha j..2 Grey Correlatio Theory i the Applicatio of Imported Power Correlatio Aalysis. For grey correlatio aalysis of the electricity imports, get total imports as factors 0, the surface water resources i Heilogjiag ad Yua, gross domestic product i Guagdog, Heilogjiag, disposable icome i Guagdog, hydroelectric fuel price ide i Heilogjiag, Guagdog as i, listed i table eeded to use i the aalysis of the raw data. After weightig additio, we ca get table 2. Table Power import ad ifluecig factors of grey correlatio aalysis before weighted years imports Surface water resources GDP disposable icome water ad electricity fuel prices ide KuMig Haerbi Guag Heilog Guag Heilog Guag Heilog dog jiag dog jiag dog jiag Table 2 Power import ad ifluecig factors of grey correlatio aalysis table after weighted imports Surface water resources GDP disposable water ad electricity icome fuel prices ide Applicatio of grey relatio theory to calculate gets the result table 3. as the surface water resources, i table 3 2 for gross domestic product, the 3 disposable icome, 4 for hydroelectric fuel price ide. (2)

3 260 Reewable Eergy ad Evirometal Techology It ca be see from table 3, GDP (0.64) ad disposable icome (0.608) two factors affectig the icidece degree greater tha 0.5, showig that the ifluece to our coutry's eergy import caot be igored. Surface water resources (0.449), water ad electricity fuel prices ide (0.459), the correlatio is less tha 0.459, temporarily ot for aalysis. related factors Table 3 Grey correlatio aalysis results of the power imported correlatio coefficiet correlatio Chia's Import Capacity Grey Correlatio Model of Affectig Factors 2. Grey GM (, ) model. Accordig to above determie the effect of the power of imported associated variables, ca be coveiet to import betwee capacity ad ifluecig factors of variable model research. This article selects ad total import power correlatio degree of the four largest sectors: GDP ad disposable icome to total import forecast. As a result of the selected idustry is less, so the grey GM (, ) model, as GM (, ) is suitable for the epoetial growth model. The electricity imported i 2007, 2008 power dow, does ot meet the epoetial growth, so the first select 7 years before participate i the costructio of the model. The Grey GM (, ) model is: l l () (0) () a () ( ) [ () bi i ( )] e bi i ( ) (5) a i 2 a i 2 The simulatio value for (0) () is: (0) () () ( ) ( ) ( ) (6) 2.2 Aalysis of Grey GM(,)i the applicatio of imported power modelig.accordig to the list of the Chia's total import battery (0) ad relevat ifluece sequece: gross (0) 2, disposable icome (0) 3.Accordig to the calculatio method of GM (, ) model, ad cosiderig the chages i order to weae the fluctuatio of data sequece, reduce the radomess, adjust the chage tred of data sequeces, meet or close to the decisio-maig eeds, o the data adopted i advace, a smooth processig method, amely (0) ()=[(-)+2()+(+)]/4. Amog this: (-), (), (+), respectively said the value of -,,+ that before processig. The get the problems of GM (, 3) model, as follows: before the first -,, +, (0) the first () after processig the data. () (0) b () b2 () a b () b2 () ( ) [( 2 ( ) 3 ( )] e 2 ( ) 3 ( ) a a a a () () () [ ( ) ( )] e ( ) (7) ( ) () Plug the value of geerated sequece got ahead i the above formula, to get Simulatio value of ().As show i table 4. Table 4 Simulatio value of () () ( ) To cumulative decrease ad reductio (), get the Simulatio value of (0).Calculatio results ad the residual error are calculated as follows:

4 Applied Mechaics ad Materials Vols Table 5 The simulatio value ad residual table (0) (0) 0 (0) (0) ( ) residual error % As show i table 5, if you igore the data i 2007 ad 2008 caot meet the eeds of the grey system theory, the relative error is still large, ad the data deviatio to oe side. This is due to the import ad eport power by iteratioal factors ifluece (e.g., 2007, 2008), ad the effect of the worst affected the import quatity forecast, such as for 2009.So this paper proposed a modified iteratioal ifluece factor, the differet values of a, due to the differet iteratioal ifluece o imported iteratioal factors, the greater the surroudig Chia iteratioal political situatio, the more ustable the a value, the greater the modificatio of predictio. Chage after several eperimets, the value of a select.5 to replace the origial It ca be cocluded that the predictive value of i 2009, ad the origial value of the error of 0.4%.while the error of the result i 09 years ago whe a =.5 is icreased but the 09 error decreases, ad that is to say the little error of 09 ifluece forecast for 200 is smaller, so tae a =.5, ad the associated projectios for Our coutry imported power correlatio predictio model calculatio results. Kow the weighted i 200 GDP ad disposable icome is 47.9, (0) () () (0) 2 () () 2 (0) 2 () (0) () () (0) 3 () () 3 (0) 3 () Plug i GM(,3) model, X () =[ X 2 () () X 3 () ()]e X 2 () () X 3 () () =[ ]e =402.2 Thus, '(0) '() '() () (0) Namely, i 200 Chia's import capacity is billio KWH. Coclusio By grey system theory ad grey GM (, ) model is applied to the aalysis of Chia's eergy imports, ca be obtaied: () Grey correlatio aalysis ca be a very good solutio uder the circumstaces of fewer samples to data correlatio aalysis ad mathematical modelig. (2) Grey predictio is suitable for epoetial growth sequece predictio, to modify the value for the Predictio that does ot meet the requiremets, i order to esure the predictive accuracy of the results. (3) Through the grey correlatio aalysis of imported electricity ad ifluece factors, GDP ad disposable icome as the mai factors affectig Chia's eergy imports. It is the idustry that should focus o to balace the import ad eport of electricity ad to esure that electricity imports provices ecoomic stability.

5 262 Reewable Eergy ad Evirometal Techology (4) I the GM(,)modelig, Accordig to previous Grey correlatio aalysis, selectig high correlatio factors ad pre-processig of the data smoothig, to mae the budget has high accuracy result. (5) Usig grey model GM has its ow limitatios, ot suitable for curve ad o mootoe predictio; Grey correlatio is ot suitable for egative correlatio sequece aalysis. While this article is through the establishmet of grey model to mae a prelimiary forecast to et year's import electricity. Ad it is helpful for better pla of electricity ad the customs departmet i the et year wor. But we must also recogize that the variable relatioship betwee factors affectig electricity imports is very comple. Especially the iteratioal ifluece, maybe there is a couplig relatioship betwee each other. How to effectively idetify this ad a more i-depth aalysis of the relatioship betwee various ifluece factors, to improve the accuracy of the forecast that will be the future to cotiue to study. Refereces: [] Liu Sifig, Xie Nailiag. Grey system theory ad its applicatio (fourth editio) [M].BeiJig: Sciece Press,200. [2] Deg Julog. Grey Cotrol System. Wu Ha: Huazhog Uiversity of Sciece ad Techology Press. [3] Wag Xuemeg. Grey system assembly.wu Ha: Huazhog Uiversity of Sciece ad Techology Press,2000 [4] Luo Roggui, CheWei. Grey system model improvemets ad applicatios. Systems egieerig theory ad practice, 988, 8( 2),p [5] Chi-Tsai, Forecast of the output value of Taiwa s opto-electroics idustry usig the Grey forecastig model, Techological Forecastig ad social Chag,vo70,2003,No.,p [6] Lu Wedai.SPSS for Widows From etry to the master. Beijig: Publishig House of Electroics Idustry,997 [7] Li Xiaojia. Empirical Aalysis of Chia's eergy cosumptio ad ecoomic growth based o the grey relative correlatio degree[j].2009,p

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