LONG-TERM MODEL CALCULATIONS OF PARTICULATE MATTER AND PHOTO-OXIDANTS FROM REGIONAL TO LOCAL SCALE WITH FOCUS ON NORTH-RHINE WESTPHALIA

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1 LONG-TERM MODEL CALCULATIONS OF PARTICULATE MATTER AND PHOTO-OXIDANTS FROM REGIONAL TO LOCAL SCALE WITH FOCUS ON NORTH-RHINE WESTPHALIA M. Memmesheimer, E. Friese, H.J. Jakobs, H. Feldmann, C. Kessler, G. Piekorz, A. Ebel Rhein Duisburg Essen Düsseldorf Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research, University of Cologne (RIU) HARMO, Garmisch,

2 1. Motivation 2. EURAD Model 3. Results OVERVIEW Annual runs 1997, ( ) Comparison with measurements Emission Scenarios 4. Conclusions and future plans HARMO, Garmisch,

3 MODEL OUTPUT Focus on air pollutants relevant for EU-DD (health effects, effects on vegetation) Near surface layer: PM 10, SO 2, NO 2, CO, NO x, O 3 More available from 3D-CTM: VOCs, NH 3, particle size and composition Deposition, vertical resolution HARMO, Garmisch,

4 EURAD-SYSTEM Meteorology: MM5, input from ECMWF or NCEP Emissions: EEM, input from available emission data (e.g. TNO, EMEP, local, EDGAR) Chemistry: EURAD-CTM, MADE, Cloud chem. (aq.), RACM or RADM2, RACM-MIM Nesting option for local application HARMO, Garmisch,

5 MODEL DESIGN Horizontal grid resolution (km): layers from the surface to the upper boundary Near surface-layer about 40 m thick 15 layers below 3000 m Upper boundary about 16 km (100 hpa) Annual run for 1997: km HARMO, Garmisch,

6 Vertical: 23 layers Lowest layer: about 40 m Upper boundary: about 15 km Sequential nesting Chemica Weather forecast Europe ds = 125 km Central Europe ds = 25 km NRW ds = 5 km district ds = 1 km HARMO, Garmisch,

7 Sept. 30, 06 UTC, 1997 High pressure system Over Central Europe PM 10 concentration more than 150 µg/m 3 PM 10 NESTING LAYER 1 (ca m) ANA 97aeh TIME: UTC LAYER 1 (ca m) LAYER 1 (ca m) ANA 97aeh TIME: UTC LAYER 1 (ca m) ANABEL-Projekt LUA NRW HARMO, Garmisch, ANA 97aeh TIME: UTC ANA nhd TIME: UTC

8 PM 10 N3 (1 km grid size) LAYER 1 (ca m) Duisburg ANA LUA97 TIME: UTC Essen Duisburg Düsseldorf Düsseldorf ANA nhd TIME: UTC Essen HARMO, Garmisch,

9 Nitrogen Oxides N3 (1 km) LAYER 1 (ca m) Duisburg ANA LUA97_V6 TIME: UTC Essen Duisburg Düsseldorf Düsseldorf ANA nhd TIME: UTC Essen HARMO, Garmisch,

10 MA AR AP AA NO x PM 10 ANNUAL NO X : annual average 1997 PM 10 : number of days > 50 [µg/m3] MO HE EN BO DO GE WA HE MO DUOBES BO MU WI HA KR NEDU LE KO BO RE WU SO RE BE MU HA OS SI BI PA BO DO GE WA HE MO DUOBES BO MU WI KA HA KR KA WU MO NEDU SO RE KO KO NO X limit value: 30 µg/m 3 MA AP AA HE EN AR HARMO, Garmisch, LE KO BO RE BE MU PM 10 limit value: 35 days HA OS SI BI PA

11 SCATTER DIAGRAMM PM10 Daily average Based on hourly values PM10 from NRW stations only PM10 = 0.83*TSP Underestimation in summer model data CTM 97aeh N2 [ug/m**3] PM 10, daily average, TMS-stations, ANA Sep. - Nov. Jun. - Aug. Mar. - May Dec. - Feb. n = corr = (Nest 2 results, 5 km grid res.) observed data [ug/m**3] 1. Jan Dec HARMO, Garmisch,

12 Sept. 29, 1997 Left: Base Case Middle: nonrw Right: Difference Wind turns from Southeast to Southwest Emission Scenario No anthropogenic Emissions in NRW (nonrw) LAYER 1 (ca m) ANA 97aeh TIME: UTC LAYER 1 (ca m) Base Case Scenario Difference LAYER 1 (ca m) ANA nonrw TIME: UTC LAYER 1 (ca m) LAYER 1 (ca m) ANA 97aeh TIME: UTC LAYER 1 (ca m) PM 10 ANA 97aeh TIME: UTC HARMO, Garmisch, ANA nonrw TIME: UTC ANA 97aeh TIME: UTC

13 NO x PM 10 Emission-Scenario nonrw NOx [ppbv] PM 10 [ug/m 3 ] ANA, NOx Koeln.Chorweiler Observed, Mean = 57.7 stattype = v height = 45 m CTM 97aeh N2, Mean = 57.5, FD = CTM nonrw N2, Mean = 8.8, FD = lat = CTM nonrw N2: xko = 18.69, yko = 19.77, lev = 1 lon = 6.89 CTM 97aeh N2: xko = 18.69, yko = 19.77, lev = Sep., 0 UTC - 2. Oct. 1997, 23 UTC ANA, PM 10 Koeln.Chorweiler Observed, Mean = stattype = v height = 45 m CTM 97aeh N2, Mean = 85.3, FD = CTM nonrw N2, Mean = 66.4, FD = lat = CTM nonrw N2: xko = 18.69, yko = 19.77, lev = 1 lon = 6.89 CTM 97aeh N2: xko = 18.69, yko = 19.77, lev = HARMO, Garmisch, Sep., 0 UTC - 2. Oct. 1997, 23 UTC

14 TSP[ug/m 3 ] daily average APA N2, TSP Nettetal COMPOSITION Observed ANTH BSOA ASOA EC DAILY AVERAGE stattype = v height = 49 m OC NO3 - NH4 + SO4 2- Jan. Feb. March 1. Jan March 2002 lat = lon = 6.20 CTM apa N2: xko = 9.44, yko = 26.59, lev = 1 HARMO, Garmisch,

15 Emission-Reduction NH 3 (local) , 12 UTC Sensitivity, Change in % LAYER 1 (ca m) LAYER 1 (ca m) APA 50nh3 TIME: UTC NH PM 10 APA 50nh3 TIME: UTC HARMO, Garmisch,

16 PM 10 : 2002 (2005) ANNUAL AVERAGE PM ANNUAL AVERAGE PM HARMO, Garmisch,

17 PM 10 : Changes (%) ANNUAL AVERAGE PM10: ANNUAL AVERAGE PM10: HARMO, Garmisch,

18 PM 10 : NUMBER OF DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE > 50 µg/m 3 HARMO, Garmisch,

19 PM 10 : 2002 (2005) # OF DAYS (2010) - # OF DAYS (2002) NUMBER OF DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE > 50 µg/m 3 HARMO, Garmisch,

20 HEMISPHERIC SIMULATION - 29 layers - Upper boundary: 10 hpa - Hor. grid size: 100 km - EDGARV3.2 emission data - Meteorology: MM5 Ozone, lowest layer, August 13, 1997, 12 UTC HARMO, Garmisch,

21 Verification: : Germany: 09 August 2003 Ozone (µg/m( 3 ), daily Maximum Observation (UBA) Forecast (EURAD) HARMO, Garmisch,

22 SUMMARY In general good agreement between observation and model for PM 10 (but: underestimation in summer) Problems with incomplete and/or not harmonized emission data Long range transport is important for background concentrations Composition of particles has not been investigated in detail yet, but: secondary aerosols are important Lack of information in the vertical (LIDAR, satellite) HARMO, Garmisch,

23 FUTURE PLANS Long-term calculations for 2002, 2005, 2010 Hemispheric version (long-term, forecast) Data assimilation to improve air pollution forecast General improvement of model numerics, physics and chemistry HARMO, Garmisch,

24 Acknowledgements Landesumweltamt Nordrhein-Westfalen (LUA) Umweltbundesamt (UBA) Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), AFO2000 EU EUROTRAC-2 (GLOREAM) EMEP TNO Ford Research Center Aachen (FFA) Regionales Rechenzentrum der Universität zu Köln (RRZK/ZAIK)) Research Center Jülich (ICG-II, ZAM/NIC) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) NCEP German Weather Service (DWD) CITY-DELTA INITIATIVE HARMO, Garmisch,

25 Aerosol Chemistry in MADE Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for EURAD/Europe (Binkowski et al., 1995, Ackerman et al., 1998, Schell et al, 2001) Aerosol dynamics (included) Coagulation, nucleation, condensation-evaporation Cloud-aerosol interaction Diffusion, advection Dry deposition, sedimentation dm ik /dt=nuk ik +coag iik +coag k ij +cond ik +sink ik +emi k i M ik :=k th Moment of i th Mode HARMO, Garmisch,

26 OBS MODEL: COMPOSITION Observation from EMEP Ammonium Nitrate Sulfate TSP model data CTM 97aeh CG [ug/m**3] model data CTM 97aeh CG [ug/m**3] NH 4+, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA Sep. - Nov. Jun. - Aug. Mar. - May Dec. - Feb. n = 5368 corr = observed data [ug/m**3] 1. Jan Dec SO 4, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA NO 3-, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA n = corr = NO NH observed data [ug/m**3] 1. Jan Dec HARMO, Garmisch, Sep. - Nov. Jun. - Aug. Mar. - May Dec. - Feb. n = corr = SO observed data [ug/m**3] model data CTM 97aeh CG [ug/m**3] model data CTM 97aeh CG [ug/m**3] Sep. - Nov. Jun. - Aug. Mar. - May Dec. - Feb. TSP, daily average, EMP-stations, ANA Sep. - Nov. Jun. - Aug. Mar. - May Dec. - Feb. n = 6402 corr = TSP observed data [ug/m**3]

27 BO DO GE WA HE MO DUOBES BO MU WI HA KR WU MO NEDU SO RE LE BE KO MA AA BO Emission-Reduction NH 3 HE OS AP EN AR BI MU PA HA RE SI KA MA AR AP AA MO HE EN BO DO GE WA HE MO DUOBES BO MU WI HA KR KO NEDU LE KO BO RE WU SO RE BE MU KO OS BI PA HA NH 3 (red)/nh 3 (Basis) [%] PM 10 (red)/ PM 10 (Basis) [%] SI KA HARMO, Garmisch, LUA-Projekt APART

28 PM 10 : 2002 (2005) MAX. DAILY AVERAGE: PM MAX. DAILY AVERAGE PM HARMO, Garmisch,

29 PM 10 : Changes (%) MAX. DAILY AVERAGE PM10: MAX. DAILY AVERAGE PM10: HARMO, Garmisch,

30 PM 10 : NUMBER OF DAYS WITH DAILY AVERAGE > 50 µg/m 3 HARMO, Garmisch,

31 FUTURE PLANS Extension of the modelling system to hemispheric scale to treat the intercontinental transport of pollutants Coupling of models with satellite data (4DVar-data assimilation including aerosols) Gaps in observation (vertical, composition) Improvement and harmonization of emission data Process-oriented model evaluation, composition, size Multiphase chemistry Modal sectional Coupling of clouds and aerosols HARMO, Garmisch,