the Forecast Summertime and the livin is easy... Third Quarter 2018 As July begins, temperatures are hot around the globe!

Transcription

1 Third Quarter 2018 the Forecast Summertime and the livin is easy... As July begins, temperatures are hot around the globe! A recent article titled Red-hot planet: All-time heat records have been set all over the world during the past week, 1 reported that numerous locations in the Northern Hemisphere have witnessed their hottest weather ever recorded over the past week. Overnight lows have also been well above average, causing increased growth rates, which in many cases eventually lead to harvesting ahead of schedule. Conversely, some crops, such as broccoli and cauliflower, will go into survival mode and stop growing altogether. With local and regional seasons being in full swing, it will be interesting to see how things play out, particularly while growing districts transition on items such as berries, peppers, soft vegetables, and tomatoes throughout the summer and as we approach the fall season. Before you know it, schools will be back in session and the sun will be setting before 6 p.m., so try to enjoy some time with family and friends over the summer months. Until next time, Joe Cimino, V.P. of Procurement 1. Jason Samenow, Red-hot planet: All-time heat records have been set all over the world during the past week, The Washington Post, July 5, The Forecast - Q3 Page 1

2 Apples Washington Red Delicious, Golden Delicious, Granny Smith, Pink Ladies, Galas, and Fujis will still be coming out of the late controlled atmosphere storages as we enter the third quarter. Pack-outs are heavy to WAXF #1s and Premiums. Sizing overall is peaking on 88 / 100 / 113 / 125. Red Delicious has gone from being an enormous crop to a demand-exceeds-supply crop, with pricing rising quickly. This was brought on by the smaller storage crop during the last few years and high export demand occurring late in the second quarter. Domestic demand was good and steady through the first and second quarters, with moderate demand late in the second quarter as school got out for the summer. We could see supplies of storage Reds get very limited during late August if the demand continues. Harvest of new crop Reds will start during the front part of September. Pricing will start out high and slowly steady out as supplies build. Golden Delicious will have good supplies throughout the summer. Demand and pricing will be steady at higher levels. Harvest of Ginger Golds will start at the front part of August, followed by Gold Supremes and then Golden Delicious late in September. Granny Smiths are in a supply-exceeds-demand situation, which is keeping the market low what a change from last year s record-high pricing. Quality is very nice. Galas and Fujis are in good shape to make it through the summer months. Pricing will be steady. Quality is good. Harvest of new crop Galas will start around the middle of August. Production for Fujis will start around the middle of September. Reports from the orchards indicate that we will have large-size apples for the 2018 / 2019 season. The bloom was especially heavy last season, which caused this year s bloom to be much lighter. Stay tuned. Asparagus Mexico: Central Mexico will begin the third quarter with rain in the forecast. Volume should start during the second week in July, and we should have good production through the second week in August, depending on the rain. Production in this region should run through the middle of September. Production in Northern Baja started during the last week in June with low volume, and we should see an increase during the second week in July. We should see strong production through the month of August, all depending on the weather. Peru: Cold weather is in the forecast for the month of July, which is typical from this region at the start of the third quarter. The weather should warm up at the beginning of August, and we should see an increase in volume during this time. We will see smaller sizing due to the cooler weather. Avocados Summary: Total volumes in the market will be a mix of Mexico, California, and Peru during Quarter 3. In general, California fruit will stay in markets in the West, with Mexico carrying heavier volumes in the Midwest and East. Total volumes during this quarter will be slightly improved compared to last year during this period. Total market demand is expected to outpace supply, keeping pricing high during the quarter. Mexico: Quarter 3 is Mexico s off season, with lighter volumes coming out of the new summer crop (Flora Loca crop), which is looking to start up toward the end of July. This crop can be very unpredictable in start time as well as production volumes. Projected crop is expected to be down slightly from last year s volumes. Weather will also be a factor during this period as Mexico enters its rainy season, which will affect both the harvest schedule and fruit quality. California: Despite wind, fires, and freezes early in the season, the crop is still expected to come in considerably larger than last year s crop. The California season will be on its downturn during this quarter, and the season will wind down quickly beginning in August until its end in September. Peru: Peru s volume continues to ramp up, with nearly 50 percent more fruit coming to North America this season than last season. Peak arrivals will be coming in late June / early July and quickly winding down in late August. The Forecast - Q3 Page 2

3 Bell Peppers East: At the start of the third quarter, bell peppers will be finishing in Georgia and will be in peak supply in North Carolina. New Jersey will be starting with light supplies in mid-july, and Michigan will begin harvesting during the third week of July. Between the third week of July and the second week of August, smaller deals will start up in Ohio, in the mountains of North Carolina and Tennessee, and in New England. These deals typically keep their product in the region, servicing local trade. Once all these summer deals get started, they will continue through the entire third quarter. We do not foresee any gaps in production, and production in most regions should overlap. Acreage in the major regions of the Carolinas, New Jersey, and Michigan appears to be the same as last year. West: Green bell pepper production is rapidly coming to a halt in the Coachella Valley. Excessive heat over the past few weeks has affected the quality of the fruit, and most growers will end their spring season a week or two ahead of schedule. Production in the Bakersfield area is now in full swing, and volume continues to increase, with more growers beginning to harvest new fields. Bakersfield will be the main growing district until late July, when production will shift to the coastal California growing areas. The coast will provide peppers until late August or early September, when production begins in the Coachella Valley for the fall crop. McAllen, Texas, will have bell peppers from central Mexico during the summer and fall months. Red bell peppers are in very low supply in Coachella. The high temperatures have affected the plants, and production will slow down considerably. Most growers will stop harvesting peppers 10 to 14 days ahead of schedule. The next growing area where we will see production is Bakersfield, which will begin its summer season in early July. There will be a gap in supply that could lead to an even higher red pepper market until mid-july, when volume in Bakersfield increases. The coastal areas will begin production in mid to late August. This will be where the majority of red peppers will be grown until late September, when the Coachella Valley begins its fall season. McAllen, Texas, will have hothouse colored bell peppers from central Mexico in the summer and fall months. Yellow bell peppers are also in very low in supply in Coachella; high temperatures have slowed production. There are not enough peppers to supply the market, and pricing may increase on an already very expensive yellow pepper market. Bakersfield is due to start production in early July and will have supplies into August. Coastal areas will produce until late September, when Coachella is due to start its fall production season. McAllen, Texas, will have hothouse colored bell peppers from central Mexico in the summer and fall months. East: Green bell peppers will be in peak season starting the second week of August and continuing through the end of the month. West: Higher volumes on green bell peppers are expected in mid-july. Colored pepper volume is expected to increase in late July or early August. East: The third week of June, moving to Michigan and New Jersey from the Mid-Atlantic West: Peppers will transition every six weeks or so, as growers move to areas with more favorable growing conditions. We are currently transitioning from the Coachella Valley to Bakersfield. The next transition will be to the coastal growing areas before we move back to Coachella in the fall. The Forecast - Q3 Page 3

4 Berries (Blackberries) Domestic blackberries have been very slow to start this year. As we have transitioned from Mexico to California, the crops have been small and yields have been far lower than expected. As we start Q3, we expect to see the domestic harvest gradually improving in the Salinas / Watsonville growing regions, with an anticipated peak in production by mid-july, and then winding down by August. We are hoping for a second peak later in August. Santa Maria and Oxnard areas have also been very slow to start. Although harvest is expected to be light at first, we hope volume will ramp up by August to help bridge the gap. Central California will have a small window of availability at the front part of July, but that will end quickly. Georgia and North Carolina will be in peak production as we start July and will quickly wrap up. Mexico and Baja will start in late September. Overall, we expect to see improved supplies for Q3. Salinas / Watsonville will peak in mid-july and again in August. Santa Maria and Oxnard will peak in late August. Georgia and North Carolina will peak at the beginning of July. Production in Georgia, North Carolina, and central California will finish by mid-july. Mexico will start in late September. Salinas, Watsonville, Santa Maria, and Oxnard will remain in production. Berries (Blueberries) Quarter 3 will signal the beginning of a transition for blueberries in several areas. On the West Coast, California production is past its peak, and we will see availability quickly come to an end by the beginning of July. We will then transition to the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia). By the first two weeks of July, we expect to see consistent production of blueberries in both Oregon and Washington. Supplies will gradually ramp up and remain consistent throughout July. We will see an overlap of the British Columbia harvest, as it is expected to begin in late July. This will carry us through the end of Q3 as we wait for Baja and Mexico to start. On the East Coast, we will see some overlap between the end of production in Georgia / North Carolina and the beginning of production in New Jersey, which is expected to ramp up at the beginning of July and taper off by the end of the month. We will also see Michigan start during the first two weeks of Q3, and there will be a small window of opportunity in Indiana. Despite the transitions, we expect to have consistent supplies of blueberries on both the East Coast and West Coast. Pacific Northwest will peak mid-july through mid-august. New Jersey will reach peak production in mid-july. Michigan will peak late in July. Pacific Northwest, New Jersey, and Michigan will all start in early July. Baja and Mexico will start in September. The Forecast - Q3 Page 4

5 Berries (Raspberries) We expect to see improved supplies of raspberries as we enter Q3. By mid-july, several areas will be in production. Salinas and Watsonville are a little behind this year, but we expect volumes to increase as we begin Q3, with peak production by mid-july, then gradually taper off as we enter August. We expect a second peak in production by mid to late August, tapering off into September. Santa Maria is expected to have a light but consistent harvest during this period, with a small peak in volume by mid-july. Oxnard s harvest will be very light at the front part of the quarter, but volume is expected to pick up by mid-august. Finally, we foresee Mexico overlapping slightly toward late September. We expect quality to be strong and supplies should remain consistent, with promotional opportunities during peak production. Salinas / Watsonville will peak in mid to late July and again in August. Santa Maria will peak in mid to late July.. Salinas / Watsonville will peak in mid to late July and again in August. Santa Maria will peak in mid to late July. Berries (Strawberries) This year s production has been different than in years past. Strawberries came on early with very heavy volume in the Salinas and Watsonville areas, forcing growers to pull out of Santa Maria and Oxnard earlier than usual. As we begin Q3, we will see lighter supplies than typical during this period. Salinas and Watsonville areas will continue to be our primary growing regions, but we will have already gone through our first peak of the season, and we will be waiting on new plantings and varieties to mature before seeing another spike in production. We expect availability to be consistent but light for the first two to three weeks of July, and then production will gradually ramp up and remain consistent through September. We will see an overlap of the fall crop starting in Santa Maria and Oxnard toward late September. Barring any major weather events, we should expect good quality and steady volumes for Quarter 3. We expect a second peak in production from Salinas / Watsonville in mid to late July, phasing out by mid-august. We will begin the transition from Salinas / Watsonville to Santa Maria and Oxnard for the start of the fall crop by late September. Carrots Plantings are good in California s growing areas of Bakersfield and Santa Maria. Yields are expected to be good on conventional and organic fresh carrots, baby peeled carrots, and value-added items. Sizing will be very good, leading to good supplies of Jumbos through the quarter. Chili Peppers Conventional hot pepper varieties will be available to load in San Diego and Los Angeles during the summer. The peppers will be grown in Baja, California, for the most part, with additional supplies available from central Mexico. There will also be chili peppers in Santa Maria from mid-july to early September. Only certain varieties are being grown in Santa Maria, as labor shortages do not allow growers to plant the more labor-intensive varieties, such as peeled tomatillos and serrano peppers. Specialty peppers will be available in Los Angeles, with sporadic supplies throughout the summer. Hot peppers from central Mexico will also be available in McAllen. Peak volume for hot peppers is expected in late July or early August for the West Coast. Hot peppers will be loading from the same districts in the summer. Growing areas in Baja, California, are spread throughout the state, and there will be transitions to newer fields as needed. The Forecast - Q3 Page 5

6 Broccoli Brussels Sprouts Cauliflower Celery Cilantro Lettuce Iceberg Lettuce Leaf Lettuce Tender Leaf Green Onions Kale Santa Maria/Oxnard: The southern California region has had flat markets for the first half of the year. The previous year, if you recall, we had plenty of rain and cold temperatures, which hindered the growth of products such as celery, broccoli, and multiple miscellaneous items such as kale, cilantro, and parsley, just to name a few. The markets were much more active. This year, growers have had to deal with flat markets because the weather has been good in the winter and there has been an unusually large amount of product available in the marketplace. The third quarter has many growers nervous, as once again the weather has been ideal for growing, and yields are at a high compared to production during past years. With school business nonexistent for the next few months, shippers are expecting flat markets to continue. Transportation rates are more costly. DOT requirements have taken freight costs to a new level, and suppliers are finding that many times, the freight per case is more expensive than the actual price of the produce being hauled. As we approach the summer months, many growers in this region are harvesting fields a few weeks ahead of their normal schedules. This will continue, as rain and cold are currently nonexistent in this region. Barring an extreme and unexpected weather change, the quality of most commodities is expected to be good. Many shippers are gearing up for a continuation of over-supply and lower-than-normal pricing on staple, large-volume commodities. Labor will again be an issue as the H-2A program comes into play. Workers will be given guaranteed housing and labor hours to insure the availability of working crews. There continues to be a shortage of field labor, and this reality will simply continue to exist in both northern and southern California. To summarize, the costs are going up for the supplier, but markets are staying flat. Oxnard will again end production of celery in mid-july and not start to harvest until early November. Santa Maria and Oxnard will continue to produce high-quality miscellaneous items such as cilantro, parsley, kale, and cabbage, as well as other items. As far as peak period for this quarter goes, expect to see steady supplies for the months of July through September, with no foreseeable spikes in production on any particular item. Salinas Valley/Yuma: As we enter into July and the fall for the Salinas Valley, we will see our typical swings in supplies for all commodities. The up-and-down trends in supply of broccoli and cauliflower will continue, as most suppliers have already contracted their volume for processing, thus leaving the carton market extremely volatile. The typical planting gaps will occur as the sporadic weather in the Salinas Valley continues during the third quarter. Also, most suppliers utilize broccoli and cauliflower as rotational crops to feed nutrients into the soil. Currently we are 7 to 10 days ahead of harvesting schedules for iceberg lettuce. As we look forward for the next three months, we will see an increase in demand as we enter into August. The processors will surge forward by acquiring acreage to handle the demand for school business. In turn, the carton market will be reactive through the end of the Salinas growing season. The romaine, green leaf, red leaf, butter leaf, and romaine heart forecast will follow the same pattern as lettuce, although it looks as if there will be good supplies of romaine. The availability of romaine hearts, on the other hand, will be unpredictable, as the weather typically throws a wrench into growth patterns. The lack of cupping will be a problem if we continue to have the offset of heat followed by cooler temperatures during those months. The current celery crop in the Salinas Valley is struggling with seeder, which occurs when the plant bolts from the center to produce seed. To mitigate this situation, suppliers are going into acreage earlier, thus resulting in smaller-sized celery. We are seeing production of mostly 30-count and 36-count, and it looks as if this trend will continue well into August. We will continue to see the typical growth, supply, and market cycles that we have seen during recent summers for the rest of the commodities, such as cilantro, parsleys, napa, bok choy, green onions, spring mix, arugula, baby spinach, and cello spinach. During these months, production of most commodities will be in peak season for the Salinas Valley, although Mother Nature definitely determines the final outcome. The Forecast - Q3 Page 6

7 Citrus (Lemons) California lemons will be coming from the Ventura growing area in July and August and during the first part of September, when the desert crop begins with light volume. No substantial volume from the desert crop is expected until mid to late October. Eighty percent of the Ventura crop has been harvested. Fruit is peaking toward 140s / 165s choice and standard grade. Expect supplies of all fancy grade to be limited. Demand is expected to outpace supplies for the balance of the summer. We will see Chilean fruit come in with some volume by mid-july, but overvolume is uncertain. The strong US market should encourage them to send some usable volumes. Citrus (Limes) In the Mexico growing regions, Quarter 3 is typically the rainy season. All areas within the Veracruz growing region are expected to be in production; however, volumes are expected to be lower. Shippers are expecting yields to decrease, and we will see supply shortages starting in late July and lasting through mid-september. The recent rains have helped this new crop, but growers are preparing themselves for larger-size fruit with smoother skin and light color. The current bloom will be for the next cycle of crops scheduled, with harvest beginning by the end of September. We can expect to see some challenges on supply and quality through Q3. Citrus (Oranges) California s Valencia crop projections are slightly lower than last season s crop. Projected peak sizes to be 88s / 72s and then a distant 113s. We will see very few 138s. Shippers once again will be pacing out their weekly packs in an effort to make the crop last through September. Overall, this quarter will be very short on oranges. Cucumbers East: When the third quarter begins, cucumbers will be shipping from Michigan, New Jersey, Virginia, and New England. Michigan, New England, and Canada will continue production through the summer, while Virginia and New Jersey typically take the month of August off and come back in September and then harvest through the month. During the third week of September, Georgia will begin shipping light supplies. During the third quarter you also will have smaller deals in western North Carolina, Tennessee, and Ohio during August and September. West: For the West Coast, cucumbers are being grown mostly in Baja, California, and are available to load in San Diego or Los Angeles. Supplies are expected to remain consistent throughout the summer. Cucumbers for the fall season will be available to load in Nogales from early to mid-october. Supplies will continue to be available in San Diego until the end of the Baja, California, season in late October or early November. Cucumbers will be available to load in McAllen, Texas, in the summer and fall seasons. We expect cucumber supplies to be consistent, with good volume throughout the summer months. Peak volume is expected in late July or early August. East: Mid-July in Michigan and mid-september in the mid-atlantic states West: Cucumbers will be coming from the same areas throughout the summer. East: Early July, moving from the mid-atlantic states to Michigan and New Jersey and in September, when the mid-atlantic states start their fall crop. West: s to new fields will be in the same general areas, once they are ready for harvest. The Forecast - Q3 Page 7

8 Eggplant East: At the beginning of the third quarter, Georgia will still be shipping eggplants, but volume will be winding down. North Carolina will be approaching its peak in production, and New Jersey will begin to harvest in mid-july. Michigan will begin its harvest during the first week of August and continue until frost. North Carolina does not plant a big acreage of eggplants; New Jersey is a big production region, with Michigan close behind. West: Eggplant production is quickly winding down in Coachella due to the extreme heat in the region. Supplies will be available to load in Bakersfield or Fresno in the next 7 to 10 days. Eggplants will be available from the central valley until mid to late October, when production will shift to the Coachella Valley for the fall. A light supply will also be available to load in McAllen for the summer season. East: Second week of August in both New Jersey and Michigan West: Eggplant production is expected to be at its highest point in early August. East: Early August from North Carolina to New Jersey and Michigan. West: Eggplant production will transition to the Bakersfield and Fresno areas for the summer months. Grapes Mexican grapes will still be available for the first two weeks of July. Most of that product will be brought up into the central valley, as most customers prefer not to load out of Nogales. Coachella will have minimal product the first week in July, with black grapes and red globes the last to finish up in the area. Arvin is projected to start harvest on June 28, and production on red grapes will be in full swing starting the first of July, with green grapes starting approximately one to two weeks later. The Delano and Fresno areas should start picking by July 9. The California crop is projected to have a great year, with good supply numbers and excellent quality for the entire third quarter. Melon (Cantaloupe) Melon (Honeydew) San Joaquin Valley: We will see some shippers start packing during the last week of June in California. Peak volume will occur in August, with more large fruit in both cantaloupes (9s and 12s) and honeydews (5s and 6s). Shippers will look to keep Brix (sugar levels) at with ideal weather conditions in the valley. Smaller fruit will have limited availability. The volume on larger fruit will be plentiful in August as the market will remain soft; they will finish up at the end of October. Mixed variety melons will start up in California at the end of July and be available until late August / early September. California / San Joaquin Valley melons will peak in August. Melon (Watermelon) Watermelons from Mexico are now coming from the southern states of Jalisco and Colima. Volume will be light for the next few weeks. Supplies should increase in late March as we transition back to the state of Sonora for spring production. Volume from Mexico is very heavy for the spring crop, creating promotional opportunities. Coachella will also begin their harvest of the spring crop in mid to late April. In central California, peak production for the Summer is expected to be in early to mid-august. Watermelons will be available from central California through the Summer. Supplies will then come from Mexico, through Nogales, AZ. The Forecast - Q3 Page 8

9 Onions Yellow, red, and white onions are currently shipping out of central California (Huron area) and New Mexico (Hatch area). Supplies out of these two areas will go into late August. Yellow onions out of both areas are over-supplied, with a weak market. Sizing is peaking on Jumbos and larger. I do not see these market conditions changing. You can never outguess Mother Nature, so this is always a good time to keep your eyes on the weather. Too much heat or some thunderstorms moving through an area could change things quickly. Red and white onion supplies out of both growing areas are just starting to improve as we enter the third quarter. Markets are softening but will stabilize quickly. Washington will start in a light way around the middle of August, with yellow, red, and white onions to follow at the end of the month. The 2018 / 2019 Idaho / Oregon storage crop is slated to start at the middle of August with yellows. Red and white onions will follow at the start of September; acreage planted is projected to be close to last year s crop. Weather has been ideal up to this point. (Stay tuned to Mother Nature.) Pears Supplies of Washington storage D Anjous, Chile Packhams, and Bosc pears will be winding down just in time for the California Bartlett and Crimson (red) pears season to start at the front part of July. Markets will start out high and slowly settle as the volumes build out of California. Quality is being reported as good. California Bosc and Forelle pears will start at the front part of August, followed by Seckels and Comice. Washington: Bartlett pears are scheduled to start around the middle of August, followed by D Anjous at the start of September. Growing conditions have been excellent, which should continue to bring on good quality and sizing. Only time will tell. Pineapples The Tropics will be entering their lighter volume period during this quarter. Springtime s flush of fruit is followed by a downturn in volume. Supplies will remain at lower levels through September. The Forecast - Q3 Page 9

10 Potatoes The 2017 / 2018 storage crop is slowly winding down in all growing areas (Idaho, Washington, Colorado, and Wisconsin). All areas will have a slight overlap of old crop as the new crop starts harvest. The market will stay fairly strong on the large cartons and a little weaker on consumer bags and small cartons until the new crop starts. Washington will be the first area to start new crop around the middle of July, followed by Idaho at the end of July. Colorado and Wisconsin will start harvest at the front part of August. Weather was ideal during the planting and up until this point, which has harvest on schedule in all growing areas. It is too early to tell what the size profile will be, as the tuber bulk up the most during the last couple of weeks. Only time will tell. The quality of this year s storage crop has been outstanding. Overall acreage planted is projected to have a slight increase from last year. Look for the availability of the #2s to go from plentiful to a demand-exceeds-supply situation as we get into the new crop. This happens every year and will stay limited until we get into October, when the Burbanks will come out of the sweat. Norkotahs will become the main variety as we enter August, as they are always the first crop to be harvested. There will be some field-run Burbanks available as we enter September. Potatoes (colored) West Coast: Harvest in Bakersfield, California, is just finishing up and will result in a slight overlap as production of the colored potatoes transitions north to Stockton, California, where harvest is scheduled to start the week of July 9. Weather has been slightly cooler than normal, which should have the sizing slightly smaller, peaking right between the A and B sizes. All colors will be available. Quality on colored potatoes is always very nice out of this area. Markets will start out firm and settle as volumes are established. Stockton will continue to pack until approximately the middle to end of September, just in time for Washington production to hit its stride. Washington product is brought down to be shipped out of Bakersfield to help out with transportation. East Coast: Production in North Carolina and Virginia will be in full swing with red, white, and gold potatoes, with typical larger sizing peaking on A s. The market should be fairly stable as long as the weather stays dry. Supplies out of these areas will start to wind down in mid to late July. Delaware s harvest starts around the third week in July with all colors and then transitions to Big Lake, Minnesota, a couple of weeks later. Minnesota has a good volume of reds and golds, which will supply most of the East Coast. White potatoes will have a slight gap from the middle of August, until Canada and Long Island start packing in September. Squash East: Starting during the third quarter, squash will be shipped from many places in the eastern half of the country. Western North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, New Jersey, and Michigan will all be in production. New Jersey and Michigan will be the primary regions of supply, but many local deals in Ohio and New England will play a big part in the overall market. In mid-september, Georgia and eastern North Carolina will begin their fall deals. West: Zucchini and yellow squash are being grown in Santa Maria and Fresno. The volume for the summer will be from the Santa Maria area, and Fresno will produce until early / mid-july before it becomes too hot to grow squash in the central valley. Supplies in Santa Maria are expected to remain consistent throughout the summer months. Northern Mexico (Nogales), will begin its fall squash season in mid to late September. Light supplies will also be available to load in McAllen, Texas, during the summer and fall seasons. East: Mid-July in Michigan and New Jersey and again in September in Michigan, New Jersey, and North Carolina West: Peak volume for squash is expected in mid-july. East: The biggest transitions will take place in early July when we transition to Michigan and New Jersey from North Carolina and then again in late September, when we start to transition back south from Michigan and New Jersey. West: Squash will be coming from the same area for most of the summer. The next transition will take place in mid-september, to the Nogales area. The Forecast - Q3 Page 10

11 Stone Fruit Stone fruit has had a very late start due to inconsistent weather, causing size profile to be hit-or-miss. Fruit is finally starting to size up, and smaller fruit is becoming scarcer. Washington will have cherries through July and into the first week of August. Volume on peaches, nectarines, and plums will ramp up during August, especially toward the end of the month, as school business comes back into play. Harvest of nectarines and white peaches will start to finish up toward the end of September, while production of yellow peaches, persimmons, and plums will run all the way through September. Quality should be good until the end of the season. Tomatoes With the summer solstice kicking off the season, crops continue to transition between fields, with many starting a little behind schedule due to previous bouts of unfavorable weather during the planting season. In the East, the Quincy district of northern Florida is wrapping up production efforts early as they finish harvesting crown picks and skip over second and third pickings that were damaged by rain. They will be finished shipping inventories by the end of June. There has been some overlap between Quincy, Florida, and South Carolina for the second half of the month, which is helping to bridge the gap between the larger operations in southern Florida that finished in May and the start of the largest operation in the United States, which began in California the week of June 18. Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee will all have regional operations under way by the first week of July, which will help build up the Eastern supply as production in South Carolina winds down and production in California is ramped up to help growers recover from a brief delay to their season. Recent warm weather patterns in the East have turnaround concerns regarding a poor start where many of these farms received heavy rain and cool weather patterns only a few weeks ago. Virginia is the last addition to the equation, and the harvesting of grape and cherry tomatoes is scheduled to begin during the first week of July and continue during subsequent harvest rounds the week thereafter. Imports in the West will continue to support the market, more than likely at anti-dumping-price minimums as California cranks out much of the nation s supply. Baja and mainland Mexico will have offerings through October, with their largest contributions being Vine-Ripe, Roma, and grape tomatoes. Quality is good from all areas, with inventory building into the month of July, providing the perfect scenario for typical summer pricing. Eastern supply will peak in mid-july while California continues to turn on new farm operations. Production in the West is expected to hit its stride by mid-july, peaking in August, thus putting them in the driver s seat and controlling the market until November, when southern Florida resumes major operations. Northern Florida is finishing up. South Carolina is into production of its summer crops, and production of tomatoes will transition to Tennessee and Virginia beginning in mid-july. California will carry the majority of supply for the nation until late October, when Florida operations will begin harvesting again. Baja is crossing into San Diego, and mainland Mexico is crossing into Nogales and Texas, thus helping with supply for the West through October. California will have an influx of supply by mid-july and go until the first rain of the season, which usually occurs near the beginning of November. The Forecast - Q3 Page 11