Recent Advancements to the U.S. Navy s Coupled Mesoscale Modeling System. U.S. Navy Models and Tools Telescoping Strategy

Transcription

1 State Hwy 619 I 95 State Hwy 40 I 85 Petersburg NB I 95 US Hwy 58 US Hwy 58 State Hwy Recent Advancements to the U.S. Navy s Coupled Mesoscale Modeling System James D. Doyle Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA Outline Overview of Systems Coupled Modeling using COAMPS Tropical Cyclone Prediction Ensemble Kalman Filter and Adjoint Parameterization Research Next-Generation Dynamics 1 Rick Allard 1 Clark Amerault Tim Campbell 1 Sue Chen John Cook Jim Cummings 1 Saša Gaberšek Tracy Haack Eric Hendricks Rich Hodur 2 Teddy Holt Xiaodong Hong Qingfang Jiang Hao Jin Yi Jin Chi-Sann Liou Paul May Naval Research Lab, Monterey, CA 1 NRL-SSC, 2 SAIC, 3 CSC Jason Nachamkin Alex Reinecke Jerome Schmidt William Thompson Kevin Viner Shouping Wang SeaWIFS (NASA) U.S. Navy Models and Tools Telescoping Strategy NRL Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System 2 NOGAPS, NAVGEM, NAAPS *Global Coverage & Ensembles *Meso- to Synoptic Scale *1-5d Guidance/ 10d Ensemble *Weather, Ice, SST, Aerosols COAMPS & COAMPS-TC *Nested Regional Coverage *Nonhydrostatic Scale *0-120h Guidance (Ensembles) *Weather, Ocean, and Aerosols COAMPS-OS *Nested Local Coverage *Tactical Scales *0-24h Guidance, on-demand *On-Scene, local data assimilation NOWCAST *Rapid Environmental Assessment *Warfighter Time & Space Scales *0-6h Guidance, Rapid Update *Real-time, Automatic, Data Fusion COAMPS and COAMPS-OS are registered trademarks of Naval Research Laboratory. Satellite I 85 NAVDAS *4DVAR/3DVAR *Observation Space *Global to Local US Hwy 1 US Hwy 58 UAV Radar State Hwy 703 I 95 US Hwy 301 State Hwy 730 State Hwy 610 I 295 State Hwy 156 State Hwy 35 US Hwy 46 0 Decision Aids State Hwy 735 State Hwy 663 Sta te Hwy 616 State Hwy 631 State Hwy 653 State Hwy 602 State Hwy 671 State Hwy 611 State Hwy 10 US Hwy 58 State Hwy 625 State Hwy 35 State Hwy 628 State Hwy 31 State Hwy 605 State Hwy 645 US Hwy 258

2 2 COAMPS Overview Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Data Assimilation: 3D-Var: NAVDAS (Atmosphere), NCODA (Ocean) EnKF and 4D-Var (underway), Adjoint obs. impact Atmosphere: Nonhydrostatic, NRL fluxes, LSM, NRL microphysics, NRL PBL, dust/aerosols, Fu-Liou radiation Ocean: O Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), Wave (SWAN,WWIII) WWIII) Ensemble: Ensemble Kalman Filter, Coupled Ensemble Transform Tropical Cyclone: COAMPS-TC, TC analysis, TC physics, moving nests Operations: Globally relocatable, 60 areas (2-4x daily), x~ km, FNMOC & NAVO COAMPS-OS, coupled option Air-Ocean Two-Way Coupling Atmospheric Modeling Tropical Cyclone Capability COAMPS and COAMPS-OS are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory 3 COAMPS Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System ESMF Modeling Superstructure Atmospheric Model NCOM Ocean Model SWAN/WWIII Waves Dynamics Interface to Physics Suites NRL WRF Others Dynamics Physics Dynamics Physics Flux Coupler ESMF superstructure used to couple models Flux coupler transfers fields between models Interface allows for different physics suites 4 Share community models and community physics. ESMF exchange grid facilitates interactions between model and grid meshes.

3 3 COAMPS-OS COAMPS-On demand System An integrated suite of software providing a turnkey, globally relocatable, coupled environmental data assimilation production capability Highly automated; quick response time Globally relocatable Web-based based configuration Forward-deployable deployable or reach-back mode Ocean and atmosphere analyses, including dedicated cloud and Doppler radar wind analyses COAMPS mesoscale forecasts with full physics Coupled ocean circulation (NCOM), ocean wave (SWAN, WWIII) using ESMF Automatically transforms output into dynamic web graphics and web-accessible data Custom interfaces to provide data for HPAC (JEM), AREPS, Nowcasts and other applications Web-based based Remote Monitor capability DOD, Federal agencies, NATO, university, gov labs Operational since 1998 w/ continuous improvements COAMPS and COAMPS-OS are registered trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory. 5 COAMPS Coupled Modeling Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Coupling 3-km COAMPS/NCOM Coupling ATMOS SST (Aug, 2003) Currents, water levels WAVE OCEAN Wave stress, bottom drag SST ( o C) Statistics Model Configuration 1.5 One month 1-waycontinuous data assimilation 1 in both the atmosphere (MVOI) and ocean (NCODA) Assimilated 0.5 special glider observations from the AOSN campaign 12-h update 0 cycle, 48-h forecasts Four-nested 2-wayatmospheric grids: 81, , 9, and No 3 km (40 L) Single ocean Assimilation model mesh: 3-1 km (40 L) M1 bias M1 rms M2 bias M2 rms 6 M1 M2 The 2-way coupled simulation has a smaller mean SST bias and RMS. Transitioned to operations (OPS tests successful at FNMOC and NAVO) Joint with NRL-Stennis Oceanography Division

4 4 N QuikSCAT Stress LUZON Air-Ocean Coupling ONR Philippine Straits Experiment Philippines Sea Manila Bay LUZON COAMPS Stress MINDORO PANAY Sulu Sea Easterly monsoon surge produces oceanic dipole eddy pair propagating west/northwest Lubang Island South China Sea South China Sea Model wind stress curl (20 Jan 2005) Model ocean surface vorticity (25 Jan 2005) Wind Stress Curl Ocean Sfc. Vorticity COAMPS 2-Way Coupled Chlorophyll Concentration Chlorophyll Concentration (2-9, February, 2005 Weekly Composite) 7 Pullen et el. (GRL) x=3 km VOCALS Coupled Modeling 2-Way Air-Ocean Coupling Daily Mean SST (Oct 20 Nov 30, 2008) AMSR-TMI 1-Way 2-Way Clouds (Liquid Water Path) Two-way coupling better simulates the spatial extent of cloud coverage (LWP) New insights into cloud-turbulence- aerosol interactions & cloud variability. 8

5 5 COAMPS Ensembles High-Resolution Coupled Ensembles Ensemble Spread 21 members ( x=5 km), 12-h Forecasts June Z 27 June 2005 (9 h) Atmospheric u-wind component Ocean u-current component E W Atmospheric potential temperature Ocean temperature Atmosphere Ocean 9 Maximum spread for atmospheric and oceanic temperature and winds/currents are located near atmospheric BL top & ocean ML bottom E W COAMPS-TC Intensity Forecast Skill 2011 Real-Time HFIP Models in W. Atlantic COAMPS-TC: Advancements in data assimilation, physics, & coupling for TCs. 10 Courtesy of James Franklin (NHC) COAMPS-TC was the leading intensity model in 2011 (and 2010). Very successful collaboration between Navy and NOAA.

6 6 Hurricane Irene 2011 Real-Time Example Widespread damage in Eastern U.S., catastrophic flooding in New England Maximum intensity of 105 kt (Cat. 3) Landfall in eastern NC at 75 kt (Cat. 1) Forecasts were for a Cat. 3 landfall INTENSITY REMAINS A BIG GAP IN STORM SCIENCE. The National Hurricane Center blew it on predictions of Irene s wind speed and it wasn t the first time. Miami Herald, 9/2/2011 CHALLENGES IN PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF STORMS. New York Times, 8/27/2011 HOW IRENE S FORECAST MISSED THE MARK AND WHY IT COULD HAPPEN AGAIN. CNN, 8/30/2011 IRENE FORECASTS ON TRACK; NOT UP TO SPEED ON WIND. Associated Press, 8/28/2011 IRENE EXPOSES PROBLEMS FORECASTING HURRICANE INTENSITY Alaska Dispatch, 8/28/2011 Real-Time TC Models Irene Intensity Errors (kt) COAMPS-TC After 00Z 23 September No interpolation COAMPS-TC performed well for Irene as part of the HFIP real-time demonstration, particularly during the critical landfall forecast period. COAMPS-TC skillfully predicted precipitation event (>15 in NC, in N.E.) 11 Ensemble and Adjoint Capabilities EnKF Data Assimilation, Adjoint/Ensemble Sensitivity Covariance between SLP and 700 hpa Temp (contours) 700 hpa RH (fill) Nested adjoint modeling system. Multi-scale sensitivity: TCS08 and ITOP. 4D-Var development underway. 36-h Nested dadjoint Run Severe European Cyclone Xynthia 28 Feb mb GHT KE/ u (0-36h) EnKF-DART capability. Predictability and data impact studies. Real-time high-res. TC ensemble forecasts. Nest 1 (45 km) 15 km 12

7 7 COAMPS Adjoint Mesoscale Observation Impact System Linked adjoints of analysis (3D-Var) and nonhydrostatic model COAMPS Impacts 12/ CONUS Radiosondes Cloud Track Per Observation Error Cloud Track Radiosondes EPAC Radiosondes Cloud Track Error Cloud Track Radiosondes 13 Observation impact depends on region of interest. COAMPS Vertical Resolution Higher Model Top (50 km) 60 vertical levels 19 levels below 1000 m New Implicit Rayleigh dampening COAMPS Levels (m) Reduces Temp RMSE above 10 hpa 30L 60L 14 Higher model top (~50 km) improves upper-level temperature statistics and allows for more *COAMPS effective is a registered radiance trademark assimilation of the Naval Research (transitioned Laboratory to FNMOC).

8 8 Parameterization Research Improved Radiation Parameterization New 4-Stream Fu-Liou Radiation Parameterization and NOAH LSM Improves 2-m Temperature Statistics 5-day summertime (July 1-5, 2006) 2 m air temperature forecast statistics CONUS 18 km grid Summer 5-day wintertime (January 1-5, 2006) 2 m air temperature forecast statistics CONUS 18 km grid Winter 15 COAMPS Aerosol Modeling Coupled Aerosol Modeling Capability NRL DEP 0955 UTC 12 Nov 2008 COAMPS 54 h Surface Dust Forecast valid 0600 UTC 12 Nov 2008 Aerosol model integrated within COAMPS. Improved dust source database (DSD) resolves dust plumes. High resolution DSD for Afghanistan/Pakistan in operations. D. Westphal, M. Liu, A. Walker 16

9 9 Clouds, Aerosols, Turbulence VOCALS Large Eddy Simulation (LES) Satellite images show sharp transition from closed to open-cell clouds during VOCALS (Oct. 2008). COAMPS-LES successfully simulates closed and open cell clouds with high and low aerosol number concentration. LES LES 17 Leapfrog ( t=0.125 s) Leapfrog needs a smaller time step & has more non-physical oscillations Numerical Methods Selective Monotonic Advection for COAMPS Selective Advection ( t=0.5 s) Selective advection similar to 5 th order Bott and has a semi- Lagrangian capability 5 th Order Bott ( t=0.5 s) 3 rd Order Bott ( t=0.5 s) Selective FCT only applies flux correction near perceived discontinuities. Avoids oscillations at discontinuities & flux correction used where needed. Semi-Lagrangian flux form for efficiency and global conservation In Collaboration with U. Wash. (D. Durran and P. Blossey) 18

10 10 New Dynamical Core Nonhydrostatic Unified Model for the Atmosphere (NUMA) Spectral Element Dynamical Core: High order accuracy Extremely scalable Mesoscale, Global options (w/ MPI) Semi-implicit solver Incorporation of physics underway 2D Squall Line w/1000 m resolution and 10 th order polynomials Clouds (shaded), Rain (contours) Accumulation Density Current w/50 m resolution and 8 th order polynomials Rainrate Frank Giraldo (NPS), Sasa Gabersek (NRL) 19 Summary and Future Plans Mesoscale Modeling at NRL Recent Advances to COAMPS: Air-sea coupled system using ESMF (Operational at FNMOC, NAVO) COAMPS-TC tropical cyclone prediction (Ops. testing at FNMOC) Increased vertical (50 km top, 60L) & horizontal resolution (Ops. testing) Coupled ensemble system New physics & numerics (land surface, Fu-Liou radiation, new KF, SMA) Further improvements to COAMPS and its various capabilities. Air-sea-wave-ice capability, coupled COAMPS-TC, coupled ensembles Embedded transport and aerosol models, urban downscaling (Fast3D) New physics & numerics (microphysics, PBL, air-sea phys, semi-lagrangian) Advanced data assim. (EnKF, 4D-Var) & predictability tools (adjoint, EnKF) Participate in and leverage field campaigns to guide development TCs (TCS08, ITOP, HS3), Mesoscale (PhilEX, SAANGRIA), PBL (VOCALS) Develop a next-generation global/mesoscale/microscale model Possible dynamical core for Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) 20

11 11 W. Atlantic Intensity Error 2010 and 2011 Seasons COAMPS-TC bias is dashed COAMPS-TC has been tested in real time over WATL, EPAC, WPAC, CPAC, IO, SH. COAMPS-TC intensity forecasts verified well for 2010 and 2011, particularly beyond 30 h where the error growth was much slower than other models. 21 U.S. Navy Global Modeling Systems NOGAPS (current) Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System NOGAPS and NAVGEM NAVGEM (new) Navy Global Environmental Model Static ti Radiance Bias Variational Radiance Correction Bias Correction 4DVAR 4DVAR Ens Hybrid Weak Constraint Eulerian Advection T319L42 Semi-Lagrangian Adv. T359L42 (to T500+L80+) Emanuel Convection SAS Convection Harshvardhan Radiation RRTMG Radiation Diagnostic Clouds Prognostic Clouds ESMF Coupling to HYCOM NOAA Land Surface Convective GWD 22