UNC Demand Estimation Sub-committee Minutes Wednesday 07 November 2012

Transcription

1 UNC Demand Estimation Sub-committee Minutes Wednesday 07 November 2012 ENA, 52 Horseferry Road, London SW1P 2AF Attendees Bob Fletcher (Chair) (BF) Joint Office Changbin Li (CB) EDF Energy Chris Warner* (Transporter Member) (CW) National Grid Distribution Christian Ivaha (CI) British Gas Dave Parker (DP) EDF Energy Fiona Cottam (FC) Xoserve Joseph Lloyd (JL) Xoserve Louise Gates (User Member) (LG) EDF Energy Louise Hellyer (LH) Total Gas & Power Mark Perry* (MP) Xoserve Martin Attwood (MA) Xoserve Matthew Jackson (User Member) (MJa) Centrica Matt Jenks (User Member) (MJe) RWE Paul Tuxworth (Transporter Member) (PT) National Grid NTS Roy Malin* (RM) National Grid Distribution Sallyann Blackett (User Member) (SB) E.ON UK Tim Davis (Secretary) (TiD) Joint Office Tony Davey (User Alternate Member) (TD) SSE *via teleconference Meeting papers are available at 1. Introduction BF welcomed attendees to the meeting. 2. Confirmation of membership and apologies for absence The meeting was declared quorate. 2.1 Alternates Tony Davey for Mo Rezvani. 3. Review of Minutes and Actions from the previous meeting(s) 3.1. Minutes The minutes from the previous meetings (11 July and 18 October 2012) were approved.

2 3.2. Actions DE0404: Minimising Losses of Xoserve AMR Equipment members to establish appropriate contacts and provide a view on the procurement of non- Transporter data for samples as permitted under Modification 0258A. Update: MJa explained that he had followed this up within his organisation and a number of practical issues and options needed to be addressed in order to support Smart Meter reads being provided. FC agreed that using Shipper equipment was the logical way forward and Xoserve would work with Shippers to trial this and see what could be achieved. DE0404A: Minimising Losses of Xoserve AMR Equipment Transporters to confirm how any data gathered by Shippers should be provided and any minimum requirements (samples, details, formats, etc). Update: FC indicated that a report would be provided on a trial approach with British gas (and any other Shippers that offer to test options). DE1001: JF to seek formal confirmation from the Transporters that they were happy for the tender process to proceed without delay. Update: In JFs absence, FC advised that Xoserve was still proceeding with the procurement of the service and had not been requested to put the procurement on hold. 4. Evaluation of demand model performance for gas year 2011/12: Strand 1 - Scaling Factor (SF) and Weather Correction Factor (WCF) Analysis Xoserve gave a presentation outlining the analysis carried out. Example graphs were displayed to illustrate the results. Further comparison analysis had been carried out and the results were presented in a series of tables and conclusions drawn. Scaling Factors during 2011/12 generally were slightly more variable than over the previous gas year. Considering the Weather Correction Factor Values, the differences between years was illustrated. NDM AQs were seen to have reduced by about 6% following 1% in the previous year. MJa questioned whether this was correctly capturing customer s declining consumption. SAB believes the industry Seasonal Normal is slightly too cold, and there was an overhang from the previous year when AQs were, in her view, undercorrected. She was therefore expecting about a 6% reduction this year, but would expect a lower reduction in the following year although a continuing decline could be expected. It was noted that this is consistent with an underlying 3-4% annual reduction reflecting insulation, improved boilers and behavioural responses to higher prices. The analyses relating to Strand 2 (Reconciliation Variance data for each EUC) and Strand 3 (Daily consumption data collected from the NDM sample) will be presented at the meeting in February Algorithm Performance Recommendation from the Technical Workgroup (TWG) Xoserve reported that the TWG had considered the current work priorities and recommends that the three strands of Algorithm Performance Analysis be done only once a year in the autumn following completion of the gas year. The results were to

3 be presented as currently at the appropriate meetings, but also to be repeated in Appendix 13 of the NDM booklet. This was unanimously approved by members. 6. Weather Station Closure Birmingham Edgbaston Having undertaken a preliminary assessment in respect of the potential closure of this weather station, Xoserve will review and assess the system and process impacts taking into account timing of the change and the effects of using a replacement weather station. SB indicated that Meteo would provide forecasts such that zeros will not be received, and so algorithms will continue to work. However, these will degrade over time. FC confirmed that updates would be provided to regarding proposals for how the loss could be accommodated. This could include looking at the proposed weather station replacement methodology and resulting recommendations. DP indicated that a provider had offered to come to and present information on weather station closures and the problems involved, and to keep aware of known developments. SB said the Met Office had resurrected their list of sites and were highlighting proposed closures, such that something is available and any notification is welcome providing an opportunity to investigate alternative weather stations. While wanting to ensure nobody is seen as gaining an advantage in the tender process, welcomed the offer that should be taken up once all tender documents have been issued and there can be no suggestion that this provides a comparative advantage. FC agreed to follow this up with DP once the present tender process was completed. 7. Modification Phase 1 - Update Reassessment of Requirements The scope of the weather data requirements were reviewed at the October meeting, where it was decided to retain the full list of weather stations, but reduce the number of weather data items to 6 by removing cloud cover. The UNCC has requested an explanation as to why costs are significantly higher than those originally set out in the modification report, and Xoserve has drafted a paper to meet this request. However, the increase in costs for Phase 1 does not mean there will be a similar increase for Phase 2. Tender Progress Contractual discussions with the chosen service provider continue while Transporter and Xoserve internal approvals are being sought. The identity of the service provider and the delivery timetable will be provided to once the process is complete. 7.2 Phase 2 Define requirements The interdependencies between the Phases were illustrated with the likely timescales for each methodology/contract, and the potential timeline for the new Seasonal Normal basis. SB asked whether a time estimate for developing the Weather Station Methodology is available, which FC expected to be about 3 months. It was noted that the proposed timeline meant it would be challenging for the work to be completed in time to feed the Seasonal Normal review.

4 FC confirmed that meetings would be held as necessary to define the climate change methodology tender requirements in order to ensure all tender documents are prepared and ready to issue at the earliest possible opportunity. DP felt some of the Phase 2 timelines may be capable of being shortened, with the time needed depending, for example, on the availability of staff once the tender is let. Shippers agreed to provide information from their EP2 experience to help with the development of the requirements. New Action DE1101: Members to consider the Phase 2 requirements and provide their views to Xoserve. 8. Work Plan and Meeting Dates for 2013 Xoserve presented a proposed work plan for NDM Proposals 2013/14, with specific tasks detailed for the period April August The programme for 2013 was discussed and it was agreed to hold meetings on or around the following dates: February 2013 face-to-face meeting 24 April 2013 TWG teleconference 22 May 2013 TWG face-to-face meeting 26 June 2013 TWG face-to-face or teleconference meeting 10 July 2013 face-to-face or teleconference meeting 31 July 2013 face-to-face meeting November 2013 face-to-face meeting BF reported that concerns had been raised in Project Nexus meetings regarding delay in the development of Project Nexus algorithms. It had been suggested that this is now on the critical path for delivering legal text. SB responded that the discussion had been held before and emphasis made that the nature of the algorithm and its potential to change meant it might not be able to be captured within the UNC and it may be better for it to be outside the UNC itself. CW noted this was very different to the present approach it could be published but not in the UNC. FC suggested the UNC might describe the principles if, for example, a regression based approach were to be adopted. In any event, a UNC change would be necessary. CW said that a proposed approach is needed and if this is that no algorithm should be embedded, this recommendation needed to be put forward as soon as possible. It was agreed that the Technical Workgroup should seek to reach a recommendation for to approve in December, which CW confirmed would fit with his aspirations for capturing the output in Modification 0432 and the associated legal text. New Action 1102: CW to provide a deadline date for including the new algorithm within legal text for Modification New Action 1103: CW to seek legal advice as to whether it is possible to publish the new algorithm in a document referenced by UNC. New Action 1104: On behalf of, request that the TWG provide a recommendation for the new algorithm as soon as possible.

5 9. Any Other Business None raised. 10. Diary Planning 10.1 Meetings 2013 The programme for 2013 was discussed and meetings will be arranged as agreed. The next meeting has been arranged for 14:30 on 5 December 2012, although a prior teleconference may be arranged Technical Workgroup Meetings Technical Workgroup meetings are held on a monthly basis, and arrangements have been made accordingly (see Table below). The next Technical Workgroup meeting has been arranged for Monday 20 November 2012, 10:30 15:00 at 31 Homer Road, Solihull B91 3LT; teleconference arrangements can be made on request. and Technical Workgroup Meetings 2012 Date Time Venue Meeting Programme 20 November :30 31 Homer Road, Solihull B91 3LT TWG Options A, C and E analysis to be presented Provisional Date 05 December :30 Teleconference TBC 05 December 2012 Following or 10:30 31 Homer Road, Solihull B91 3LT TWG TBC and Technical Workgroup Meetings 2013 Date Time Venue Meeting Programme To be confirmed 10:30 TBC TWG TBC Provisional Date 06 February :30 ENA, 52 Horseferry Road, London SW1P 2AF TBC

6 Action Log: Demand Estimation Sub-committee Action Ref Meeting Date(s) Minute Ref Action Owner Status Update DE /04/ Minimising Losses of Xoserve AMR Equipment members to establish appropriate contacts and provide a view on the procurement of non-transporter data for samples as permitted under Modification 0258A. DE0404A 11/07/ Minimising Losses of Xoserve AMR Equipment Transporters to confirm how any data gathered by Shippers should be provided and any minimum requirements (samples, details, formats, etc). DE /10/ JF to seek formal confirmation from the Transporters that they were happy for the tender process to proceed without delay. DE /11/ Members to consider the Phase 2 requirements and provide their views to Xoserve. DE /11/ Provide a deadline date for including the new algorithm within legal text for Modification DE /11/ Seek legal advice as to whether it is possible to publish the new algorithm in a document referenced by UNC. DE /11/ to request that the TWG provide a recommendation for the new algorithm as soon as possible. Transporte rs Northern Gas Networks (JF) All National Grid Distribution (CW) National Grid Distribution (CW) (BF)

7 Action Log: Demand Estimation Sub-committee Technical Work Group Action Ref Meeting Date(s) Minute Ref Action Owner Status Update DTW /08/ Complete analysis for options A, C and E by the end of September. 09 November DTW /08/ TWG Work Planning Algorithm Performance Analysis: TWG to consider the various strands of Algorithm Performance and the frequency of analysis and provide comments on what should be done going forward. DTW /08/ Ref No 2: Review of appropriateness of current EUC definitions for Small and Large NDMs Consider different approaches and submit suggestions/ preferences to Xoserve by 31 August CI, MR, SB and Xoserve ALL ALL Carried forward - Presentations to be made on 20/11/12 Carried forward to 20/11/12