VICTORIAN TERMINAL STATION DEMAND FORECASTS 2010/ /20

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1 1 VICTORIAN TERMINAL STATION DEMAND FORECASTS 2010/ /20 PREPARED BY: Transmission Services DOCUMENT NO: VERSION NO: 6 FINAL

2 DISCLAIMER This publication has been prepared by the Australian Energy Market Operator Limited (AEMO) using long term load forecast information in relation to each connection point that connects to the Victorian transmission network. This information has been submitted to AEMO by Distribution Network Service Providers (DNSPs) and shall form part of an Annual Planning Report to be published by AEMO in its capacity as a Transmission Network Service Provider in Victoria in accordance with Rule 5.6.2A of the National Electricity Rules. This publication also contains certain predictions, estimates and statements that reflect various assumptions. Further, this publication presents aggregate forecasts of demand at terminal stations over the next ten years, which are based on the DNSPs forecasts and assumptions. All forecasts and assumptions could change from year to year. Consequently, they may or may not prove to be correct. Information in this publication does not amount to a recommendation in respect of any possible investment and does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor or participant or potential participant in the National Electricity Market might require. The information contained in this publication might not be appropriate for all persons and it is not possible for AEMO to have regard to the investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs of each person who reads or uses this publication. The information contained in this publication might contain errors or omissions, and may or may not prove to be correct. In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the information in this publication should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability, and suitability of that information (including information and reports provided by third parties) and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts. Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, neither AEMO, nor any of AEMO s advisers, consultants or other contributors to this publication (or their respective associated companies, businesses, partners, directors, officers or employees): (a) (b) make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of this publication and the information contained in it; and shall have any liability (whether arising from negligence, negligent misstatement, or otherwise) for any statements, opinions, information or matter (expressed or implied) arising out of, contained in or derived from, or for any omissions from, the information in this publication, or in respect of a person s use of the information (including any reliance on its currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness) contained in this publication. COPYRIGHT NOTICE AEMO is the owner of the copyright and all other intellectual property rights in this publication. All rights are reserved. All material is subject to copyright under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth) and permission to copy it, or any parts of it, must be obtained in writing from AEMO. AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES

3 Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION 3 2. DEMAND FORECASTS BY LOCATION 4 3. METHODOLOGY Date Ranges and times Embedded Generation Capacitance and Reactance Diversity of Demand Terminal Station Diversity System Diversity SYSTEM MAXIMUM DEMAND FORECASTS TSDF System Forecast VAPR Forecast Summer Demand Winter Demand Comparison of System Forecasts Reactive Demand Forecasts ACTUAL DEMANDS VS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS Summer Winter 63 AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES

4 1. Introduction AEMO has prepared and makes available demand forecasts for points of connection within the Victorian transmission network as required by the National Electricity Rules, clause 5.6.2A(b)(1). For each location, this document provides the: Maximum active power demands forecast to occur for summer and winter on average one year in two (50% probability of exceedance (POE)) and one year in ten (10% POE), for each of the financial years 2010/2011 to 2019/2020 inclusive; Reactive power demands forecast to occur at the same times as the terminal station s maximum active demands (for both 50% POE and 10% POE); Representative daily active and reactive demand profiles for days of maximum active power demand; and Maximum active and coincident reactive actual demands for the summer and winter periods of the preceding year (2009/10). System Participants have supplied AEMO with forecast maximum levels of active demand, and the associated reactive demand levels, that they expect to be supplied to their licensed distribution area at the 10% and 50% POE levels, separated according to their points of connection at each terminal station. Forecasts are provided for summer and winter over a ten year period. AEMO has aggregated these forecasts by terminal station. These forecast demands also form an input to the Distribution Businesses' subsequent connection planning reports. AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 3

5 2. Demand Forecasts by Location The bulk of this report comprises a summary of the total forecast demand for each location. In most cases, the locations reported here correspond directly to physical terminal stations. In other cases, a location may cover only a portion of a terminal station (for example only some of the buses), or portions of multiple terminal stations. Finally, some locations relate to direct connect customers, rather than terminal stations. Where a location supplies electricity at different voltage levels, these are reported separately. Locations are sorted by abbreviation, which generally includes an abbreviation of the terminal station name, along with the voltage level. The following locations are included: Abbreviation Description APD500 APD500: Portland 500 kv bus ATS_BLTS66 ATS_BLTS66: Altona/Brooklyn Terminal Station 66 kv bus ATS_West66 ATS_West66: Altona West Terminal Station 66 kv bus BATS66 BATS66: Ballarat Terminal Station 66 kv bus BETS22 BETS22: Bendigo Terminal Station 22 kv bus BETS66 BETS66: Bendigo Terminal Station 66 kv bus BLTS22 BLTS22: Brooklyn Terminal Station 22 kv bus BLTS-SCI66 BLTS-SCI66: Brooklyn-SCI 66 kv bus BTS22 BTS22: Brunswick Terminal Station 22 kv bus CBTS66 CBTS66: Cranbourne Terminal Station 66 kv bus ERTS66 ERTS66: East Rowville Terminal Station 66 kv bus FBTS66 FBTS66: Fishermans Bend Terminal Station 66 kv bus FVTS220 FVTS220: Fosterville Terminal Station 220 kv bus GNTS66 GNTS66: Glenrowan Terminal Station 66 kv bus GTS66 GTS66: Geelong Terminal Station 66 kv bus HOTS66 HOTS66: Horsham Terminal Station 66 kv bus HTS66 HTS66: Heatherton Terminal Station 66 kv bus HYTS22 HYTS22: Heywood Terminal Station 22 kv bus JLA220 JLA220: John Lysaght 220 kv bus KGTS22 KGTS22: Kerang Terminal Station 22 kv bus KGTS66 KGTS66: Kerang Terminal Station 66 kv bus KTS66 KTS66: Keilor Terminal Station 66 kv bus LY66 LY66: Loy Yang Substation 66 kv bus MBTS66 MBTS66: Mount Beauty Terminal Station 66 kv bus MTS22 MTS22: Malvern Terminal Station 22 kv bus MTS66 MTS66: Malvern Terminal Station 66 kv bus MWTS66 MWTS66: Morwell Terminal Station 66 kv bus AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 4

6 Abbreviation Description PTH220 PTH220: Point Henry 220 kv bus RCTS22 RCTS22: Red Cliffs Terminal Station 22 kv bus RCTS66 RCTS66: Red Cliffs Terminal Station 66 kv bus RTS22 RTS22: Richmond Terminal Station 22 kv bus RTS66 RTS66: Richmond Terminal Station 66 kv bus RWTS22 RWTS22: Ringwood Terminal Station 22 kv bus RWTS1366 RWTS1366: Ringwood Terminal Station 1&366 kv bus RWTS2466 RWTS2466: Ringwood Terminal Station 2&466 kv bus SHTS66 SHTS66: Shepparton Terminal Station 66 kv bus SMTS66 SMTS66: South Morang Terminal Station 66 kv bus SVTS66 SVTS66: Springvale Terminal Station 66 kv bus TBTS66 TBTS66: Tyabb Terminal Station 66 kv bus TGTS66 TGTS66: Terang Terminal Station 66 kv bus TSTS66 TSTS66: Templestowe Terminal Station 66 kv bus TTS1266 TTS1266: Thomastown Terminal Station 1&266 kv bus TTS3466 TTS3466: Thomastown Terminal Station 3&466 kv bus WETS66 WETS66: Wemen Terminal Station 66 kv bus WMTS22 WMTS22: West Melbourne Terminal Station 22 kv bus WMTS66 WMTS66: West Melbourne Terminal Station 66 kv bus WOTS22 WOTS22: Wodonga Terminal Station 22 kv bus WOTS66 WOTS66: Wodonga Terminal Station 66 kv bus YPS11 YPS11: Yallourn PS Terminal Station 11 kv bus AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 5

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14 BLTS-SCl66: Brook lyn-sci 66 kv bus Summer Demand 2009/10 MD MW MVAR 18 Jan : % POE 50% POE Year MW MVAR MW MVAR 2010/ / G , /14 6, / / /17 6, /18 6, / / G.7 Load C11Ne on High Demand Oay 70, ,- -- -, ,- -- -,-- --, , t t I j r1"',11 n, ~ II l\i, rt ~ ',N ( \J II ~ If M ' I I :,o f--h IH-l-+ff-Llf-1-++-'hHl- ++-~ ~r+-- \, H-+f-hl--V-l , 11--F Hf-t~tt-H-f+-ii!-, tf-lt-+ t--i lt-1 -f--'l.-f,l-tf--tt- ---, ' Hl--<1-..,,,, M--'--lfl-- -t 0... _..,,,...,_, ~ - -"""'.,,,._ I T -' ' _ ,... BO,------,-----,-----,------r--- Forecast -- M\Y ---- MVA.=tS 70 t=====;;;;::;;;;;j;;===;;;;;;j;====!====;;j;;;=;;;; -- 10;. 1.tw t ~);. \tw ! ! :,o ! ==::::=::::=:::::::::;j;:::::::::::::::::::==!;:::::::::::::::::::::::::~:::::=:::::::::::;j::::::::== t / B/ r) 7i-\tv A,:;, $) ';,c. \tv AJ Winter Demand 2009 MD 22 Jun :30 10% POE Yea r MW MVAR 2010, G.O 2015, G.O MW MVAH 64.G % POE MW MVAR 66.8 G.O 66.8 G.O GG.8 G.O ao ,0,., - 'V \ I...,... _.,... Load Curve on High Demand Day A ~ A I I I\ n. ' J Ill 1J 11 \J I H f I 1,1,,.,... ' ~...,. ;,,, 11, r\ I'-.,,' -....,\''-"' l.t"'..,"""..'"' "' -100 ' u ~., u u.,u I L o UU V o'uu L U o U U ' u. ao, , r--- Forecast 70 1;;;;;===+===;;;;;;!;====j;;;;;;===+=;;;;; t f ! =========!::========t========l========::t====: t W B I -- M\",' ---- MVA.=tS -- 10%.~'i 1 1' -- 1 %.IMV K Notes: This load is a direct connect customer. This load is typically shut,down on summer peak days, hence the IVlD,does not coincide with the system pceak AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 13

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39 RWTS22 : Ringwood Ter1m in al Station 22 kv bus Summ er Dem an d 2009/10 MD MW MVAR 11 Jan : % POE 50% POE Yea r MW MVAR MW MVAR 2010/ / / / / / / / G / G Load C11Ne on High Demand Oay BO -- M\Y 7, MVA.=tS,50 V 50 ' / _,...,.,.- --~-1!!1""" _, ,o,0:00 4:00 B:00 12:00 1 6:00 20:00 0:00 Forecas t SO ! )\. ltval, ! c,,%. \tval- 40 t:::;: ;;:: _;;::;_;:::;;_;:;;_::;_;:_ ;J;_;:;._,;._;.;:_ ;.; ;;:;.::..,:;::_~ ;;:::_a':::_;;._,:_';_;, ~ _,'==';;';;';':-~ -'t':": ~ / B/19 Wint er Dem and 2009, MD MW MVAH 10 Jun : % POE 50% POE Yea r MW MVAR MW MVAR , ao Load Curve on High Demand Dai. - / ' M\",' / '- / _,,.., / ~ ,0 0:00 4:oo, 6:00 12:00, 16:00 20:00, 0:00 ' ---- MVA.=tS Forec ast 90 ao -- 10%.~'i 70 1' :1)% \t'i\ ' %.IMV K :1)%.\0/ A,~ W B Notes: AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 38

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56 3. Methodology For notes on individual terminal stations, please see its sheet above. 3.1 Date Ranges and times Summer 2010/11 refers to the period 01 November 2010 to 30 April Winter 2009 refers to the period 01 May 2009 to 31 October Demand figures are based on 30 minute energy forecasts. Where an interval time is noted, it refers to the end time of the 30- minute interval. Where shown in this document, time of day is Australian Eastern Standard Time. Daylight Saving Time is not used for summer in this document. 3.2 Embedded Generation Actual demands at a location for distribution network/s connected will be the total of: Customer demand connected to the distribution network/s; plus Losses in the distribution network/s; less Generation exported into the distribution network/s from generators embedded in the distribution network/s. In forecasting location maximum demands presented in this report, System Participants have assessed the aggregate level of export, at times of each location s maximum demand, from small generators embedded in the distribution network/s connected to the station. Where possible, these assumptions have been formed using historical performance during high load periods. This aggregate export has been treated in the Terminal Station Demand Forecasts as negative demand. That is, the locations Maximum Demand Forecasts presented in this document have been reduced by the total export of relevant embedded generators. Output from embedded wind generators is handled in the same manner; that is, it has been estimated and treated as negative demand for the relevant terminal stations. Conversely, the Terminal Station Maximum Demand Forecasts presented include demand supplied by larger embedded generators scheduled by AEMO. That is, the Terminal Station Maximum Demand Forecasts presented have not been reduced by the total export of these particular embedded generators. AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 55

57 Examples of larger embedded generators are: Morwell power station units G1-3; Clover power station; Hume power station; Somerton power station; Bairnsdale power station; and Anglesea power station. 3.3 Capacitance and Reactance Reactive loading forecasts presented are the reactive loading levels expected to be imposed on locations by licensed distribution areas. Thus they incorporate the reactive losses of the distribution network, including any reactors, and are offset by line and cable charging and those capacitors in the distribution network assessed by System Participants to be in service at the relevant time. Terminal station capacitors, compensators, reactors and transformation reactive losses are not considered as part of the demand. 3.4 Diversity of Demand Terminal Station Diversity Where only one System Participant has a point of connection at a location, demand forecasts are presented as provided by the System Participant. Where more than one System Participant has a point of connection at a location, AEMO determines the proportion of demand contributed by each Participant at the time of maximum demand for the location. In some instances, a Participant does not experience its maximum demand at the same time as the terminal station. AEMO refers to this as diversity between the Participant s maximum demand and the location s maximum demand. This diversity is represented by a terminal station diversity factor. The terminal station diversity factor is based on the historical behaviour of the terminal station and Participant demands. It assists AEMO in using the demand forecasts provided by Participants to calculate the maximum demand of the location. Each participant s demand forecast is assigned a diversity factor for each relevant location. The diversity factor scales the demand forecast to represent the demand contributed by the Participant at the time of location maximum demand. The scaled demand forecasts are summed to obtain aggregate demand forecasts for these location. AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 56

58 3.4.2 System Diversity When calculating system demand forecasts, AEMO determines the proportion of demand contributed by each Participant (by location) at the time of system maximum demand. In some instances, a Participant does not experience its maximum demand at the same time as the system maximum. AEMO refers to this as diversity between the Participant s maximum demand and the system maximum demand. This diversity is represented by a system diversity factor. The system diversity factors are based on the historical behaviour of the Participants demands at time of system maximum demand. It assists AEMO in using the demand forecasts provided by Participants to calculate the forecast system maximum demand. Each participant s demand forecast is assigned a system diversity factor. The diversity factor scales the demand forecast to represent the demand contributed by the Participant at the time of system maximum demand. The scaled demand forecasts are summed to obtain aggregate system maximum demand forecasts. Winter and summer forecasts derived from the Terminal Station Demand Forecasts are compared against AEMO s system forecasts, as presented in the following section. AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 57

59 4. System Maximum Demand Forecasts 4.1 TSDF System Forecast From the individual location forecasts at 10% and 50% POE for summer and winter, AEMO has used the following steps to derive a corresponding overall Victorian forecast: Multiplied each Participant s demand forecasts for its points of connection by the relevant system diversity factor to produce terminal station demand forecasts for the time of system peak demand (see Methodology section above); Aggregated these system-diversified terminal station demand forecasts; Ensured that the Loy Yang Switching station is not double-counted at Morwell Terminal Station; Adjusted the overall forecast by adding: o Transmission losses as expected on a maximum demand day; o Demand representing expected power station internal usage. 4.2 VAPR Forecast Maximum demand forecasts for the Victorian electricity system are also available in the 2010 Victorian Annual Planning Report (VAPR) which is published in June, and available from The VAPR forecast is determined using a top-down approach, based on factors such as: Historical electricity demand; Economic and population growth; and Trends in electricity demand. For the purpose of comparison with the TSDF, the following applies: The medium economic growth scenario is selected. The VAPR forecast is based on demand as measured at the generator terminals. No adjustment is required for transmission losses and power station internal usage. Unlike the TSDF, the VAPR forecast includes the contribution of wind farms embedded within the distribution networks. To enable a comparison with the TSDF, this contribution is removed. AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 58

60 4.3 Summer Demand Figure 4-1 displays summer TSDF forecasts and VAPR forecasts for both 10% POE and 50% POE. FIGURE 4-1- TSDF AND VAPR SUMMER MAXIMUM DEMAND FORECASTS The TSDF forecasts at both 10% and 50% POE are considerably higher than the VAPR forecasts. For 10% POE, the gap varies from 5.4% in the first forecast year to 10.6% in the final year. For 50% POE, it varies from 6.3% to 12.3%. AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 59

61 4.4 Winter Demand Figure 4-2 displays winter TSDF forecasts and VAPR forecasts for both 10% POE and 50% POE. FIGURE 4-2 TSDF AND VAPR WINTER MAXIMUM DEMAND FORECASTS Overall, Participant forecasts are well in excess of the VAPR projections. For 10% POE, the gap varies from 5.5% in the first forecast year to 12.6% in the final year. For 50% POE, it varies from 4.8% to 10.0%. AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 60

62 4.5 Comparison of System Forecasts A discrepancy between the VAPR forecast and the aggregated TSDF is to be expected, given the very different methods used to develop them. The VAPR is focused on forecasting the total Victorian system demand, whereas the TSDF uses local information and connection information to develop forecasts for each terminal station. The TSDF is aggregated to a system total for comparative purposes. As in previous years, the aggregated TSDF forecasts are higher than the VAPR forecasts. The VAPR forecasts have increased since last year, but the aggregated TSDF forecasts have increased by a larger amount. As a result, the gap between the two has grown. In checking the forecasts submitted for individual locations, AEMO has identified those that have markedly increased, and sought clarification from the participant. A variety of reasons were nominated for the increases; a sample of typical responses is listed below. Increased demand due to planned residential developments; Increased applications for customer connections; Recovery from global financial crisis; higher expectations for economic growth; Positive correction to the forecast after adjusting for last year s actual weather conditions. Another factor contributing to the increase in the aggregated TSDF is a change in methodology for direct-connect customers. In previous years, the system diversity factor for direct-connect customers was calculated as for other locations. In this year s report, a more conservative assumption has been made for planning purposes, to assign these loads a system diversity factor of 100%. AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 61

63 4.6 Reactive Demand Forecasts Figure 4-3 shows the aggregate reactive demands forecast by System Participants to be drawn from terminal station points of connection (usually stations lower voltage terminals) at the times of Victorian system maximum summer and winter active power demand. The higher levels of motorised cooling demand in summer are considered mainly responsible for the higher reactive demand in summer compared to winter. Calculation of power factors indicates little change over the forecast horizon, regardless of POE or season. FIGURE FORECAST OF REACTIVE DEMAND DRAWN FROM TERMINAL STATION LOW VOLTAGE BUSBARS AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 62

64 5. Actual Demands vs. Previous Forecasts 5.1 Summer AEMO assessed the temperature conditions at time of Victorian maximum demand during the 2009/10 year. The highest summer half-hourly native demand of 10,253 MW occurred at 4:00pm on 11 January On this day, Melbourne s overnight minimum temperature was 19.1 C and the daily maximum temperature was 43.1 C, giving an average temperature of 31.1 C. This Native Demand figure includes: Demand met by generated scheduled by AEMO; Significant non-scheduled generation. This includes the two largest hydro generators and all the wind farms in Victoria. An estimation of demand that would have occurred, in the absence of high prices and supply constraints. This includes load shedding and Demand Side Participation (DSP), and accounts for 135 MW out of the 10,253 noted above. At the time of this year s maximum demand, the most recent TSDF was the 2009 report, which covered the period from 2009/10 to 2018/19. For each location, Figure 5-1 and Figure 5-2 compare the unadjusted maximum actual demand against the forecast demand for summer 2009/ Winter AEMO has assessed the temperature conditions for the 2009 winter maximum demand, recorded as 8,156 MW for the half hour ending 6:00 pm on 10 June No load shedding or DSP was present at this time. On this day, Melbourne s minimum temperature was 5.7 C and the maximum temperature was 12.5 C, providing a daily average temperature of 9.1 C. For each location, Figure 5-3 and Figure 5-4 compare the unadjusted maximum actual demand against the forecast demand for winter AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 63

65 FIGURE 5-1 SUMMER ACTUAL DEMAND BY LOCATION VS FORECAST AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 64

66 FIGURE 5-2 SUMMER REACTIVE ACTUAL DEMAND BY LOCATION VS FORECAST AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 65

67 FIGURE 5-3- WINTER ACTUAL DEMAND BY LOCATION, VS FORECAST AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 66

68 FIGURE 5-4 WINTER ACTUAL REACTIVE DEMAND BY LOCATION, VS FORECAST AEMO TRANSMISSION SERVICES PAGE 67