Republic of Serbia Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia. Drought monitoring and forecasting in Serbia

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1 Republic of Serbia Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Drought monitoring and forecasting in Serbia 8 th CARPATCLIM meeting, Belgrade, Serbia January 2013

2 Scope of Department of Agrometeorology at RHMSS The Department of Agrometeorology performs the analysis, monitoring and assessment of conditions for agricultural development based on current and historical meteorological and other data, as well as the assessment of potential impacts of expected climate change on agriculture in Serbia Monitoring, forecasting, analysis and assessment of weather and climate conditions impact are based on the values of agrometeorological indices, application of agrometeorological models and results of climate models In the area of applied researches special attention was paid to studying climate extremes and meteorological phenomena causing major damages in agriculture and consequences of those phenomena (drought, extremely high and low air temperatures)

3 Drought monitoring and forecasting Standardized precipitation index (SPI) SPI values are calculated on the basis of precipitation amounts for previous 30,60, 90 days calculation time step is one day SPI for 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,12 and 24 months - monthly calculation Calculations of SPI forecast for next 10 and 30 days, on the basis of precipitation forecast (ECMWF/RHMSS) Palmer s Z index - measure of monthly moisture anomaly; Z index values are updated at the end of each ten day period Measurements of soil moisture in one meter soil layer Daily reference potential evapotranspiration - actual values and ten day forecast based on ECMWF/RHMSS temperature forecast; results are updated daily CropSyst monitoring and forecast of agrometeorological conditions during the period April- October for hybrid corn

4 Example of drought monitoring and forecasting 4 4 SOMBOR PALI] KIKINDA EXTREMELY WET VERY WET SOMBOR PALI] KIKINDA EXTREMELY WET VERY WET NOVI SAD VR[ AC MODERATELY WET NOVI SAD VR[ AC MODERATELY WET LOZNICA VALJEVO BEOGRAD S.PALANKA V.GRADI[ TE NEGOTIN CRNI VRH NORMAL MODERATE DROUGHT LOZNICA VALJEVO BEOGRAD S.PALANKA V.GRADI[ TE NEGOTIN CRNI VRH NORMAL MODERATE DROUGHT PO@EGA SJENICA KOPAONIK KRU[ EVAC NI[ SEVERE DROUGHT EXTREME DROUGHT -5 PO@EGA SJENICA KOPAONIK KRU[ EVAC NI[ SEVERE DROUGHT EXTREME DROUGHT -5 LESKOVAC LESKOVAC PRI[ TINA VRANJE PRI[ TINA VRANJE Moisture conditions in Serbia estimated on the basis of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI-1) determined for 30 - day period ( ) Moisture conditions in Serbia estimated on the basis of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI-1) forecast for next 10 days, on the basis of precipitation forecast (ECMWF/RHMSS) determined for the period ( )

5 Example of drought monitoring and forecasting 4 4 PALI] EXTREMELY WET PALI] EXTREMELY WET SOMBOR KIKINDA VERY WET SOMBOR KIKINDA VERY WET NOVI SAD VR[ AC MODERATELY WET NOVI SAD VR[ AC MODERATELY WET LOZNICA VALJEVO PO@EGA SJENICA BEOGRAD S.PALANKA KOPAONIK V.GRADI[ TE KRU[ EVAC NEGOTIN CRNI VRH NI[ NORMAL MODERATE DROUGHT SEVERE DROUGHT EXTREME DROUGHT -5 LOZNICA VALJEVO PO@EGA SJENICA BEOGRAD S.PALANKA KOPAONIK V.GRADI[ TE KRU[ EVAC NEGOTIN CRNI VRH NI[ NORMAL MODERATE DROUGHT SEVERE DROUGHT EXTREME DROUGHT -5 LESKOVAC LESKOVAC PRI[ TINA VRANJE PRI[ TINA VRANJE Moisture conditions in Serbia estimated on the basis of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI-2) determined for 60 day period ( ) Moisture conditions in Serbia estimated on the basis of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI-2) forecast for next 30 days, on the basis of precipitation forecast (ECMWF/RHMSS) determined for period ( )

6 RHMSS Internet pages Agricultural meteorology (Moisture conditions, Agrometeorological bulletins)

7 Products from agrometeorological bulletins (Seven-day and CropSyst bulletin)

8 Regional monitoring of moisture conditions within SEEVCCC Example of the assessment of moisture conditions in the Southeast Europe region using values of precipitation and moisture condition parameters (precipitation percent of normal, percentiles and SPI1, 2, 3, 6)

9 LRF ECMWF - SPI accumulated precipitation percent of normal percentiles SPI1 Precipitation forecast 3 months ahead SPI2 Model climatology SPI3 SPI6 SPI Standardized Precipitation Index

10 LRF ECMWF probabilistic SPI forecast Probability for: SPI1 < MD SPI1 SPI3 < AD SPI6 < HD SPI3 SPI6 MD meteorological drought AD agricultural drought HD hydrological drought

11 LRF ECMWF - SPEI temperature anomalies temperature percentiles precipitation percent of normal prec percentiles SPEI1 SPEI2 Precipitation and temperature forecast 3 months ahead Model climatology SPEI3 SPEI Standardised Precipitation- Evapotranspiration Index SPEI6

12 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Ana Šovljanski Slavica Radovanović Aleksandra Kržič