9/9/ May 2013 JRC CROP YIELD FORECASTING IN SEE Skopje (Macedonia) May 2013 JRC CROP YIELD FORECASTING IN SEE Skopje (Macedonia)

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1 Application of different NWP products in crop modelling Branislava Lalić, Maria Francia & Marija Ninkov Source: Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Forecasting weather NWP products of interest in agrometeorology (AgM) and crop modelling (CM) Short-range range weather forecast (out to 5 days) Medium-range weather forecast (out to 5 days) Monthly forecast (out to days) Seasonal forecast (out to 7 months) Climate model simulations (decades)

2 GOAL APPLICATION OF SHORT-TERM, TERM, MONTHLY AND CLIMATE FORECASTING IN AGROMETEOROLOGY AND CROP MODELLING OBJECTIVE Provide backgroung for more efficient use of different NWP products for tactical and/or strategical decision making in agriculture /crop production and plant protection/

3 ACTIVITY Application of short term weather forecast in agrometeorology and crop modeliing AgM - forecasting : leaf weatness and temperature canopy air temperature and humidity soil temperature and moisture precipitation... AgM - forecasting application : fruit vegetation dynamic (in progress) meteorological conditions for plant dissease appereance (done) ACTIVITY Application of short term weather forecast in agrometeorology and crop modeliing CM - forecasting : crop dynamic on daily level soil moisture deficit evapotranspiration precipitation... CM forecasting application : scheduling of farm operations according to weather and crop conditions optimization of irrigation, fertilization and plant protection application-spraying

4 RESULT. Forecasting fruit vegetation dynamic: DEGREE-DAYS DAYS ACCUMULATION Simulations: Work Eta NWP model, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad Akumulisani stepen-dan [C] DD Rimski Sancevi Akumulisani stepen-dan [C] DD5 Rimski sancevi RESULT. Forecasting met. conditions for plant dissease appereance: APPLE SCAB Simulations: Work Eta NWP model, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad

5 RESULT. Rimski Šančevi (Serbia) Goettlesbrunn (Austria) Lalic, Francia, Eitzinger, Podrascanin, Arsenic to be submitted in Pest Management Science ACTIVITY Application of monthly weather forecast in agrometeorology and crop modeliing AgM - ensembl forecasting : air temperature and humidity precipitation... AgM ensembl forecasting application : fruit vegetation dynamic (in progress) AgM conditions meteorological conditions for plant dissease appereance (done) 5

6 ACTIVITY Application of monthly weather forecast in agrometeorology and crop modeliing CM - ensembl forecasting : crop dynamic soil moisture deficit evapotranspiration LAI development CM ensembl forecasting application : yield and biomass formation N uptake scheduling of farm operations according to weather and crop conditions on monthly scale optimization of irrigation, fertilization and plant protection application-spraying RESULT. Forecasting AgM conditions: EXTREME TEMPERATURES AND DRY DAYS Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) Year FrostDay FreezDay FrostDay FreezDay TropDay SumDay TropNig TropDay SumDay TropNig GS obs GS month obs month Dry start Dry intensive Dry extreme Dry very extreme Dry complete DryRat Sowing Harvest Year AMJ MAM AMJ MAM AMJ MAM AMJ MAM AMJ MAM AMJ pring_earspring_lat Jun GS obs ,5 4 GS month ,4 5 obs , month ,

7 RESULT. Forecasting met. conditions for plant dissease appereance: BLIGHT OF GRAPEVINE Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) Grossensdorf (Austria) - no conditions for accurence of infection Novi Sad (Serbia) Control run Start of IP End of IP Duration No. IP 4 RESULT. CM - ensembl forecasting : LAI DEVELOPMENT SIRIUS: WINTER WHEAT Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) MONTHLY FORECAST 6 MONTHLY FORECAST Grossensdorf LAI (m m - ) 4 Novi Sad LAI (m m - ) JDAY JDAY 7

8 RESULT.4 CM - ensembl forecasting : ACCUMULATED ET SIRIUS: WINTER WHEAT Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) 5 5 Accumulated ET (mm) 4 MONTHLY FORECAST Novi Sad Accumulated ET (mm) 4 MONTHLY FORECAST Grossensdorf JDAY JDAY RESULT.5 CM - ensembl forecasting : AVAILABLE WATER SIRIUS: WINTER WHEAT Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) 6 MONTHLY FORECAST MONTHLY FORECAST Grossensdorf Available water (mm) 8 4 Novi Sad Available water (mm) JDAY JDAY 8

9 RESULT.6 CM - ensembl forecasting: MARCH-JUNE observed vs. monthly SIRIUS: WINTER WHEAT Simulations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from ECMWF MARS Archive and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) ET (mm) Max def. (mm) Anthesis day Maturity day Biomass (kg/ha) Yield (kg/ha) Grossensdorf obs Grossensdorf month Novi Sad obs Novi Sad month Lalic, Dekic, Eitzinger (Manuscipt in preparation) ACTIVITY Application of climate predictions in agrometeorology and crop modeliing AgM - GCM forecasting: air temperature and humidity radiation wind speed precipitation AgM - GCM forecasting application: fruit vegetation dynamic (in progress) agroclimatic conditions (done) meteorological conditions for plant dissease appereance (done) 9

10 ACTIVITY Application of climate predictions in agrometeorology and crop modeliing CM - GCM forecasting: crop phenology dynamic soil moisture deficit evapotranspiration LAI development yield and biomass formation N uptake CM - GCM forecasting application : CC impact on crop growth dynamic (done) CC impact on yield and biomass CC impact on evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficit RESULT. CC impact on AC conditions: RELATIVE CHANGE OF TEMPERATURE ACCUMULATION Observations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Simulations: COST74 and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) ECHAM HadCM NCAR JRC CROP YIELD FORECASTING IN SEE 6 Skopje 4 8 (Macedonia) 6 Lalic et al.,

11 RESULT. CC impact on AC conditions: RELATIVE CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION Observations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Simulations: COST74 and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) HadCM ECHAM5 NCAR-PCM H45 H85 M45 M85 N45 N RESULT. CC impact on met. conditions for plant dissease appereance: BLIGHT OF GRAPEVINE Observations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Simulations: COST74 and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) Relative change in number of IP Relative change in time of first day of IP Lalic, Ninkov to be submitted in Pest Management Science

12 RESULT.4 CC impact on yield: RELATIVE CHANGE OF WINTER WHEAT YIELD Observations: Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Simulations: COST74 and Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad (Serbia) Cernozem Fluvisol H M N H M N H M N H M N H M N H M N H M N H M N RS do Glejsol Solonjec H M N H M N H M N H M N H M N H M N H M N H M N RS Lalic et al., OVERVIEW AgM Pest and dissease appereance Crop yield Short term weather forecast to be done... Monthly forecast Climate model simulations case study made, further work in progress... Climate modeling group: Ilija Arsenić (ilija@polj.uns.ac.rs) and Zorica Podraščanin (zorica.podrascanin@gmail.com) Model: COSMOS= ECHAM5 + MPIOM + OASIS Period: 6. Outputs (daily values of): air temperature and humidity, wind speed, SW radiation, precipitation,...

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