Supplement of Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations
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1 Supplement of Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, , Author(s) This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Supplement of Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations Sandip S. Dhomse et al. Correspondence to: Sandip S. Dhomse Douglas Kinnison and Martyn P. Chipperfield The copyright of individual parts of the supplement might differ from the CC BY 4.0 License.
2 This document contains additional figures to support those presented in the main document. For discussion of the figures and references see the main text. 1
3 550 Arctic (Mar.) 550 Arctic (Mar.) ACCESS-CCM CCSRNIES CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CHASER-MIROC CNRM-CM5-3 EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AM3/CM3 HadGM3-ES IPSL MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA SOCOL3 -CCM IMCAT UMUKCA-UCAM median MMM MMM1S SBUV MOD Figure S1. (a) Total column ozone time series (DU) for Arctic (60 N 90 N) in March from 19 individual CCMs for March for the REF-C2 simulations along with observations from the SBUV merged ozone dataset. The MMM, median (MedM) and MMM1S are shown with thick green, blue and red lines, respectively. Light blue shaded region indicates 10th and 90th percentile range. Light green and red regions show 1-σ variability w.r.t. MMM and MMM1S mean lines. (b) Same as (a) but adjusted total ozone time series w.r.t. mean observations. The dashed black line indicates 1980 reference value. 2
4 SH midlat SH midlat 340 ACCESS-CCM CCSRNIES CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CHASER-MIROC CNRM-CM5-3 EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AM3/CM3 HadGM3-ES IPSL MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA SOCOL3 -CCM IMCAT UMUKCA-UCAM median MMM MMM1S SBUV MOD Figure S2. As Figure S1 but for annual mean total column ozone for SH mid-latitudes (60 S 35 S). 3
5 380 NH midlat NH midlat ACCESS-CCM CCSRNIES CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CHASER-MIROC CNRM-CM5-3 EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AM3/CM3 HadGM3-ES IPSL MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA SOCOL3 -CCM IMCAT UMUKCA-UCAM median MMM MMM1S SBUV MOD Figure S3. As Figure S1 but for annual mean total column ozone for NH mid-latitudes (35 N 60 N). 4
6 290 Tropics Tropics 240 ACCESS-CCM CCSRNIES CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CHASER-MIROC CNRM-CM5-3 EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AM3/CM3 HadGM3-ES IPSL MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA SOCOL3 -CCM IMCAT UMUKCA-UCAM median MMM MMM1S SBUV MOD Figure S4. As Figure S1 but for annual mean total column ozone for the tropics (20 S 20 N). 5
7 ACCESS-CCM CCSRNIES CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CHASER-MIROC CNRM-CM5-3 EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AM3/CM3 HadGM3-ES IPSL MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA SOCOL3 -CCM IMCAT UMUKCA-UCAM median MMM MMM1S SBUV MOD Figure S5. As Figure S1 but for annual mean near-global mean (60 S 60 N) total column ozone. 6
8 360 SH midlat 380 NH midlat SH midlat 380 NH midlat REF-C1 REF-C1SD REF-C2 SBUV MOD Figure S6. MMM1S total column ozone time series (DU) from REF-C1 (blue), REF-C1SD (dark cyan) and REF-C2 (red) simulations for (left) SH mid-latitudes (60 S 35 S) and (right) NH mid-latitudes (35 N 60 N). Dashed black lines show 1980 reference value for a given zonal latitude band. The top row shows the unadjusted modelled values and the bottom row shows the time series adjusted with respect to mean observations. Also shown are merged SBUV observations. 7
9 290 Tropics Tropics REF-C1 REF-C1SD REF-C2 SBUV MOD Figure S7. As Figure S6 but for the tropics (20 S 20 N) and near-global average (60 S 60 N). 8
10 2100 tco return (SEN-C2-fGHG) 2100 tco return (SEN-C2-fN2O) SH mid-lat Tropics NH mid-lat Arctic (Mar) SH mid-lat Tropics NH mid-lat Arctic (Mar) 2100 tco return (SEN-C2-fCH4) 2100 tco return (SEN-C2-RCPCH485) SH mid-lat Tropics NH mid-lat Arctic (Mar) SH mid-lat Tropics NH mid-lat Arctic (Mar) ACCESS CCSR CAM4 CHASER CNRM EMAC-L47 EMAC-L90 GEOS GFDL HadGEM IPSL MRI UMUKCA Figure S8. Estimated MMM1S return dates (red triangles) of total column ozone from the SEN-C2-fGHG, SEN-C2-fN2O, SEN-C2-fCH4 and SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 simulations for different latitude bands. The estimated 1-σ uncertainties are shown with vertical black lines Estimates for individual models are shown with coloured dots. Some individual models do not predict a return of column ozone in the tropics. Return dates from REF-C2 (see Figure 4 in main paper) are shown with grey triangles
11 2100 tco return (SEN-C2-RCP45) 2100 tco return (SEN-C2-RCP85) SH mid-lat Tropics NH mid-lat Arctic (Mar) SH mid-lat Tropics NH mid-lat Arctic (Mar) Figure S9. As Figure S8 but for the SEN-C2-RCP45 and SEN-C2-RCP85 simulations. 10
12 50 hpa O3 (ppm) 50 hpa O3 (ppm) Global (annual) Tropics hpa o3 (ppm) hpa O3 (ppm) 50 hpa O3 (ppm) SH midlat ACCESS-CCM CCSRNIES CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CNRM-CM5-3 EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AF3/CM HadGEM3-ES MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA SOCOL3 -CCM IMCAT UMUKCA-UCAM MMM1S GOZCARDS Figure S10. Time series of adjusted ozone at 50 hpa from the REF-C2 simulations for Antarctic (60 N 90 N), SH mid-latitudes (60 S 35 S), tropics (20 S 20 N) and near-global (60 S 60 N) mean. The dark red line shows the MMM1S and the shaded region indicates corresponding 1-σ standard deviation. The reference value for year 1980 is shown with dashed black line. Also shown are observations from the GOZCARDS merged dataset. 11
13 5 hpa O3 (ppm) Global (annual) hpa O3 (ppm) SH midlat hpa O3 (ppm) hpa o3 (ppm) 9.0 Tropics hpa O3 (ppm) ACCESS-CCM CCSRNIES CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CNRM-CM5-3 EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AF3/CM3 HadGEM3-ES MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA SOCOL3 -CCM IMCAT UMUKCA-UCAM MMM1S GOZCARDS Figure S11. As Figure S10 but for 5 hpa. 12
14 hpa Bry (ppt) hpa Bry (ppt) hpa Bry (ppt) ACCESS-CCM CCSRNIES CESM1- CHASER-MIROC CNRM-CM5-3 EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM HadGEM3-ES MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA SOCOL3 -CCM IMCAT MMM1S Figure S12. Evolution of inorganic bromine (Bry, ppt) at 5 hpa (top) and 50 hpa (bottom) from the REF-C2 simulations. 13
15 CO2 (ppm) 4 3 CH4 (ppm) RCP6.0 RCP8.5 A1b fixed@ N2O (ppb) Figure S13. Volume mixing ratios (vmrs) of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2O used in the REF-C2 (RCP6.0, red lines), and SEN-C2-RCP8.5 (orange lines) simulations along with the values from the SRES A1b scenario (blue lines). The values for reference year 1960 are shown with green lines. 14
16 CCSRNIES GEOSCCM -UKCA SOCOL IMCAT REF-C2 SEN-C2-fODS SEN-C2-fGHG SEN-C2-fCH4 SEN-C2-fN2O SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 BSVertOzone Figure S14. Evolution of Arctic (March, (60 N 90 N)) stratospheric ozone columns (DU) from selected models for REF-C2, SEN-C2- fods, SEN-C2-fCH4, SEN-C2-fN2O and SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 simulations. Also shown are observations from the merged SBUV dataset. 15
17 CCSRNIES GEOSCCM -UKCA SOCOL IMCAT REF-C2 SEN-C2-fODS SEN-C2-fGHG SEN-C2-fCH4 SEN-C2-fN2O SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 BSVertOzone Figure S15. As Figure S14 but for NH mid-latitudes (35 N 60 N). 16
18 CCSRNIES GEOSCCM UKCA 230 SOCOL IMCAT REF-C2 SEN-C2-fODS SEN-C2-fGHG SEN-C2-fCH4 230 SEN-C2-fN2O SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 BSVertOzone Figure S16. As Figure S14 but for near-global average (60 S 60 N). 17
19 SCO return (senc2fghg)2100 EMAC-L90 mean EMAC-L90CCSR CCSR SCO return (senc2fghg)2100 ACCESS 2100 mean Arctic (Mar.) ACCESS 2100 SCO return (senc2fghg)2100 SCO return (senc2fghg)2100 mean CCSR EMAC-L90 SH midlat ACCESS 2100 EMAC-L90 mean NH midlat ACCESS CCSR 2100 Figure S17. Correlation plots of stratospheric column ozone (SCO) return dates from the SEN-C2-fGHG simulations against SCO return dates from REF-C2 simulations for individual models within four latitude bands. 18
20 SCO return (senc2fn2o)2100 SOCO CCSR GEOS SCO return (senc2fn2o)2100 SOCO GEOS CCSR SH midlat SCO return (senc2fn2o) CCSR SOCO Arctic (Mar.) GEOS 2100 SOCO GEOS SCO return (senc2fn2o) NH midlat CCSR 2100 Figure S18. As Figure S17 but for simulation SEN-C2-fN2O. 19
21 SCO return (senc2fch4)2100 SOCO CCSR GEOS SCO return (senc2fch4)2100 SOCO GEOS CCSR SH midlat SCO return (senc2fch4) SOCO CCSR Arctic (Mar.) GEOS 2100 SOCO GEOS SCO return (senc2fch4) NH midlat CCSR 2100 Figure S19. As Figure S17 but for simulation SEN-C2-fCH4. 20
22 SCO return (senc2ch485) SCO return (senc2ch485) SOCO GEOS 2100 GEOS Arctic (Mar.) SOCO 2100 Figure S20. As Figure S17 but for simulation SEN-C2-CH4RCP85. SCO return (senc2ch485) SCO return (senc2ch485) SOCO GEOS SOCO SH midlat GEOS 2100 NH midlat
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