Supplementary Material for Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Simulations

Transcription

1 Supplementary Material for Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Simulations Sandip S. Dhomse 1, Douglas Kinnison 2, Martyn P. Chipperfield 1, Irene Cionni 3, Michaela Hegglin 4, N. Luke Abraham 5,6, Hideharu Akiyoshi 7, Alex T. Archibald 5,6, Ewa M. Bednarz 5, Slimane Bekki 8, Peter Braesicke 9, Neal Butchart 10, Martin Dameris 11, Makoto Deushi 12, Stacy Frith 13, Steven C. Hardiman 10, Birgit Hassler 11, Larry W. Horowitz 14, Rong-Ming Hu 8, Partick Joeckel 11, Beatrice Josse 15, Oliver Kirner 16, Stefanie Kremser 17, Ulrike Langematz 18, Jared Lewis 17, Marion Marchand 8, Meiyun Lin 14,19, Eva Mancini 20, Virginie Marecal 15, Martin Michou 15, Olaf Morgenstern 21, Fiona M. OĆonnor 10, Luke Oman 13, Giovanni Pitari 22, David A. Plummer 23, John A. Pyle 5,6, Laura E. Revell 24,25, Eugene Rozanov 25,26, Robyn Schofield 27,28, Andrea Stenke 25, Kane Stone 27,28, *, Kengo Sudo 29,30, Simone Tilmes 2, Daniele Visioni 20, Yousuke Yamashita 7,30, and Guang Zeng 21 1 School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, U.K. 2 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA. 3 Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, lenergia e lo Sviluppo Economica Sostenible (ENEA), Bologna, Italy. 4 Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, U.K. 5 Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, U.K. 6 National Centre for Atmospheric Science, U.K. 7 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan. 8 IPSL/CNRS, Paris, France. 9 IMK-ASF, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany. 10 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, U.K. 11 Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut fur Physik der Atmosphare, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany. 12 Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan. 13 NASA/GSFC, USA. 14 NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. 15 Meteo-France, Toulouse, France. 16 Steinbuch Centre for Computing (SCC), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany. 17 Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra 9, New Zealand. 18 Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universitat Berlin, Berlin, Germany. 19 Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. 20 Dept. of Physical and Chemical Sciences and Center of Excellence CETEMPS, Universita del láquila, Italy. 21, New Zealand. 22 Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Universitat dell Aquila, Italy. 23 Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Canada. 24 Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand. 25 ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland. 26 Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Centre, Davos Dorf, Switzerland. 27 School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia. 28 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, Australia. 29 Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan. 30 Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan. 1

2 * Now at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Boston, Massachusetts, USA Correspondence: Sandip Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn Chipperfield This document contains additional figures to support those presented in the main document. For discussion of the figures and references see the main text. 2

3 Arctic (Mar) Arctic (Mar) ACCESS-CCM CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CHASER-MIROC EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AF3/CM3 HadGM3-ES IPSL MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA -CCM IMCAT median MMM SBUV MOD Figure S1. (a) Total column ozone time series (DU) for Arctic in March from 19 individual CCMs for March for the simulations along with observations from the SBUV merged ozone dataset. The MMM, median (MedM) and are shown with thick green, blue and red lines, respectively. Light blue shaded region indicates 10th and 90th percentile range. Light green and red regions show 1-σ variability w.r.t. MMM and mean lines. (b) Same as (a) but adjusted total ozone time series w.r.t. mean observations. The dashed black line indicates 1980 reference value. 3

4 SH midlat SH midlat 340 ACCESS-CCM CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CHASER-MIROC EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AF3/CM3 HadGM3-ES IPSL MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA -CCM IMCAT median MMM SBUV MOD Figure S2. As Figure S1 but for annual mean total column ozone for SH mid-latitudes. 4

5 380 NH midlat (annual) NH midlat (annual) ACCESS-CCM CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CHASER-MIROC EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AF3/CM3 HadGM3-ES IPSL MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA -CCM IMCAT median MMM SBUV MOD Figure S3. As Figure S1 but for annual mean total column ozone for NH mid-latitudes. 5

6 ACCESS-CCM CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CHASER-MIROC EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AF3/CM3 HadGM3-ES IPSL MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA -CCM IMCAT median MMM SBUV MOD Figure S4. As Figure S1 but for annual mean total column ozone for the tropics (20S-20N). 6

7 ACCESS-CCM CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- CHASER-MIROC EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AF3/CM3 HadGM3-ES IPSL MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA -CCM IMCAT median MMM SBUV MOD Figure S5. As Figure S1 but for annual mean near global mean (60S-60N) total column ozone. 7

8 SH mid-lat NH mid-lat SH mid-lat REF-C1 REF-C1SD SBUV MOD NH mid-lat REF-C1 REF-C1SD SBUV MOD Figure S6. total column ozone time series (DU) from REF-C1 (blue), REF-C1SD (dark cyan) and (red) simulations for (left) SH mid-latitudes and (right) NH mid-latitudes. Dashed black lines show 1980 reference value for a given zonal latitude band. The top row shows the unadjusted modelled values and the bottom row shows the time series adjusted w.r.t. mean observations. Also shown are merged SBUV observations. 8

9 REF-C1 REF-C1SD SBUV MOD REF-C1 REF-C1SD SBUV MOD Figure S7. As Figure S6 but for the tropics (20S-20N) and near global average (60S-60N). 9

10 tco return dates (senc2fghg) tco return dates (senc2fn2o) SH mid-lat (annual) NH mid-lat (annual) tco return dates (senc2fch4) Arctic (Mar) SH mid-lat (annual) NH mid-lat (annual) tco return dates (senc2rcpch485) Arctic (Mar) SH mid-lat (annual) NH mid-lat (annual) Arctic (Mar) SH mid-lat (annual) NH mid-lat (annual) Arctic (Mar) Figure S8. Estimated return dates (red triangles) of total column ozone from the, SEN-C2-fN2O, SEN-C2-fCH4 and SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 simulations for different latitude bands. The estimated 1-σ uncertainties are shown with vertical black lines. Estimates for individual models are shown with coloured dots. Some individual models do not predict a return of column ozone in the tropics. Return dates from (see Figure 4 in main paper) are shown with grey triangles. 10

11 tco return dates (senc2rcp45) tco return dates (senc2rcp85) SH mid-lat (annual) NH mid-lat (annual) Arctic (Mar) SH mid-lat (annual) NH mid-lat (annual) Arctic (Mar) Figure S9. As Figure S8 but for the SEN-C2-RCP45 and SEN-C2-RCP85 simulations. 11

12 50 hpa o3 (ppm) hpa o3 (ppm) SH midlat 50 hpa o3 (ppm) hpa o3 (ppm) Tropics ACCESS-CCM (annual) 2.4 HadGEM3-ES IMCAT ACCESS-CCM HadGEM3-ES EMAC-L47MA MRI-ESM1r1 Global (annual) EMAC-L47MA MRI-ESM1r1 CESM1-CAM4 EMAC-L90MA -UKCA 2.8 CESM1-CAM4 EMAC-L90MA -UKCA 2.2 CESM1- GEOSCCM GOZCARDS CESM1- GEOSCCM GFDL-AF3/CM3 -CCM GFDL-AF3/CM3 -CCM ACCESS-CCM ACCESS-CCM HadGEM3-ES IMCAT ACCESS-CCM HadGEM3-ES IMCATHadGEM3-ES EMAC-L47MA MRI-ESM1r1 EMAC-L47MA MRI-ESM1r1 CESM1-CAM4 EMAC-L90MA -UKCA EMAC-L47MA CESM1-CAM4 MRI-ESM1r1 EMAC-L90MA -UKCA CESM1- GEOSCCM CESM1-CAM4 GOZCARDS EMAC-L90MA CESM1- -UKCA GEOSCC GFDL-AF3/CM3 -CCM GFDL-AF3/CM3 -CCM CESM1- GEOSCCM GOZCARDS GFDL-AF3/CM3 -CCM 50 hpa o3 (ppm) 2.2 IMCAT GOZCARDS IMCAT GOZCARDS Figure S10. Time series of adjusted ozone at 50 hpa from the simulations for Antarctic, SH midlatitudes, tropics and global mean. The dark red line shows the and the shaded region indicates corresponding 1-σ standard deviation. The reference value for year 1980 is shown with dashed black line. Also shown are observations from the GOZCARDS merged dataset. 12

13 5 hpa o3 (ppm) hpa o3 (ppm) SH midlat 5 hpa o3 (ppm) hpa o3 (ppm) ACCESS-CCM CESM1-CAM4 CESM EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AF3/CM3 HadGEM3-ES MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA -CCM IMCAT GOZCARDS IMCAT GOZCARDS 5 hpa o3 (ppm) ACCESS-CCM CESM1-CAM4 CESM1- EMAC-L47MA EMAC-L90MA GEOSCCM GFDL-AF3/CM ACCESS-CCM ACCESS-CCM HadGEM3-ES EMAC-L47MA MRI-ESM1r1 CESM1-CAM4 EMAC-L90MA -UKCA CESM1- GEOSCCM CESM1-CAM4 GFDL-AF3/CM3 -CCM CESM1- HadGEM3-ES MRI-ESM1r1 -UKCA -CCM 7.0 ACCESS-CCM HadGEM3-ES IMCATHadGEM3-ES EMAC-L47MA MRI-ESM1r1 EMAC-L47MA CESM1-CAM4 MRI-ESM1r1 EMAC-L90MA -UKCA EMAC-L90MA CESM1- -UKCA GEOSCC GFDL-AF3/CM3 -CCM GEOSCCM GOZCARDS GFDL-AF3/CM3 -CCM IMCAT GOZCARDS IMCAT GOZCARDS Figure S11. As Figure S10 but for 5 hpa. 13

14 CO2 4 3 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 fixed@1960 CH4 425 N2O PPMV PPMV 2 PPMV Figure S12. Volume mixing ratios (vmrs) of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2O used in the (RCP6.0) scenario (red lines). The values for reference year 1960 are shown with green lines and the CH 4 vmr used in the SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 simulation is shown with an orange line. 14

15 GEOSCCM 500 -UKCA 500 SOCOL 500 tco(du) 500 IMCAT SEN-C2-fCH4 SEN-C2-fN2OrefC2 BSVertOzone senc2fn2o senc2fghgsbuv MODSEN-C2-fN2O senc2fch4 senc2fods senc2ch485 SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 BSVertOzone Figure S13. Evolution of Arctic (March) stratospheric ozone columns (DU) from selected models for, SEN-C2-fCH4, SEN-C2- fn2o and SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 simulations. Also shown are observations 15 from the merged SBUV dataset.

16 GEOSCCM -UKCA SOCOL tco(du) IMCAT SEN-C2-fCH4 SEN-C2-fN2OrefC2 BSVertOzone senc2fn2o senc2fghgsbuv MODSEN-C2-fN2O senc2fch4 senc2fods senc2ch485 SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 BSVertOzone Figure S14. As Figure S13 but for NH mid-latitudes. 16

17 GEOSCCM 220 -UKCA 220 SOCOL tco(du) IMCAT 220 SEN-C2-fCH4 SEN-C2-fN2OrefC2 BSVertOzone senc2fn2o senc2fghgsbuv MODSEN-C2-fN2O senc2fch4 senc2fods senc2ch485 SEN-C2-CH4RCP85 BSVertOzone Figure S15. As Figure S13 but for near-global average (60S-60N). 17

18 SCO return year (senc2fghg) SCO return year (senc2fghg) mean EMAC-L90 CCSR ACCESS EMAC-L90 CCSR mean Arctic (Mar.) ACCESS SCO return year (senc2fghg) SCO return year (senc2fghg) mean EMAC-L90 SH midlat (annual) CCSR ACCESS EMAC-L90 mean NH midlat (annual) ACCESS CCSR Figure S16. Correlation plots of stratospheric column ozone (SCO) return dates from the SEN-C2fGHG simulations against SCO return dates from simulations for individual models within four latitude bands. 18

19 SCO return year (senc2fn2o) SCO return year (senc2fn2o) SOCO CCSR GEOS CHASER CCSR SOCO Arctic (Mar.) GEOS SCO return year (senc2fn2o) SCO return year (senc2fn2o) SH midlat (annual) SOCO GEOS CHASER CCSR CHASER SOCO GEOS NH midlat (annual) CCSR Figure S17. As Figure S16 but for simulation SEN-C2-fN2O. 19

20 SCO return year (senc2fch4) SCO return year (senc2fch4) SOCO CCSR GEOS CHASER CCSR SOCO Arctic (Mar.) GEOS SCO return year (senc2fch4) SCO return year (senc2fch4) SH midlat (annual) SOCO GEOS CCSR CHASER CHASER SOCO GEOS NH midlat (annual) CCSR Figure S18. As Figure S16 but for simulation SEN-C2-fCH4. 20

21 SCO return year (senc2ch485) SCO return year (senc2ch485) SOCO GEOS GEOS Arctic (Mar.) SOCO SCO return year (senc2ch485) SCO return year (senc2ch485) SH midlat (annual) SOCO GEOS SOCO GEOS NH midlat (annual) Figure S19. Same as S16 but for simulation SEN-C2-CH4RCP85. 21