Supplement of Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance

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1 Supplement of The Cryosphere, 9, 2 22, 25 doi:94/tc supplement Author(s) 25. CC Attribution. License. Supplement of Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance C. Agosta et al. Correspondence to: C. Agosta (cecile.agosta@gmail.com) The copyright of individual parts of the supplement might differ from the CC-BY. licence.

2 S CESM-BGC tos[sum] CESM--FV2 CC CSIRO-Mk6 E BCC-CSM--m BCC-CSM- NOAA-2CR-v2 CC NCEP-NCAR-v MERRA-v MRI-ESM E CESM-BGC NOAA-2CR-v2 CESM--FV2 CSIRO-Mk6 MRI-ESM msie[win] BCC-CSM- BCC-CSM--m CC S CC NCEP-NCAR-v MERRA-v E MRI-ESM CESM-BGC CESM--FV2 CC CC CSIRO-Mk6 CC CSIRO-Mk6 S S BCC-CSM- BCC-CSM--m psl[win] psl[sum] psl[aut] psl[spr] BCC-CSM- CESM-BGC ta85[sum] ta85[win] MRI-ESM CESM--FV2 BCC-CSM--m CC NOAA-2CR-v2 NCEP-NCAR-v MERRA-v E NOAA-2CR-v2 NCEP-NCAR-v MERRA-v CC E CESM-BGC CESM--FV2 NOAA-2CR-v2 S BCC-CSM- BCC-CSM--m CC NCEP-NCAR-v prw[sum] prw[win] CESM--FV2 BCC-CSM- CSIRO-Mk6 S ta85[sum] CC BCC-CSM--m CC CESM-BGC CSIRO-Mk6 MERRA-v MRI-ESM NOAA-2CR-v2 MRI-ESM E NCEP-NCAR-v MERRA-v Figure S: CPI scores, computed as exp(-cpi 2 /2), range from (best, external circle) to (nul probability of belonging to the distribution, internal circle). Models are ranked by CPI scores for each variable: summer sea surface temperature, winter meridional sea-ice extent, annual sea-level pressure, summer/winter precipitable water, summer/winter 85hPa air temperature, and summer 85hPa air temperature. Markers are for seasonal CPI scores and solid black line is for combined CPI scores. Blue lines are upper and lower bounds for the combined score taking into account multi-decadal variabilities of seasonal components. The grey crown width is the combination of 9th percentiles of CMIP5 GCMs multi-decal variabilities. Models with obvious similarities in code or produced by the same institution are marked with the same color (clusters), following Knutti et al. (2). 2

3 Figure S2: Same as Fig. but for summer sea surface temperature (in C).

4 Figure S: Same as Fig. but for winter sea-ice concentration. 4

5 Figure S4: Same as Fig. but for summer precipitable water (in kg m -2 ). 5

6 Figure S5: Same as Fig. but for winter precipitable water (in kg m -2 ). 6

7 Figure S6: Same as Fig. but for summer air temperature at 85hPa (in C). 7

8 Figure S7: Same as Fig. but for winter air temperature at 85hPa (in C). 8

9 . 2.5 y=.9x y=.95x+. crmse zg5[ann] R2= crmse psl[ann] crmse zg25[ann] R2= crmse psl[ann] Figure S8: The spatial centered rmse (crmse) is computed for 98-2 mean values of models vs. and scaled by spatially-averaged standard deviation of annual values. Here we compare annual geopotential heights at 5hPa (zg5[ann], left) and at 25hPa (zg25[ann], right) without masking ice-sheet areas to annual sea-level pressure over the ocean (psl[ann], X-axis). See Fig. for chart details. 9

10 msie[win] psl[ann] prw[s/w] tos[sum] rmse ta85[s/w] ta85[sum] Figure S9: -years time-averages running CPIs between 95 and 2. The field of reference is for the period Thin light blue lines are for the 4 CMIP5 GCMs (historical+rcp85) and thick dark grey lines are for the reanalyses. Three GCMs are highlighted with thick colored lines: in purple, in dashed red and in solid red. Each point of a line is the central year of the -year period.

11 rmse psl[ann] amip prw[s/w] amip ta85[s/w] amip psl[ann] historical 2 4 prw[s/w] historical 5 2 ta85[s/w] historical BCC-CSM- BCC-CSM--m CSIRO-Mk-6- Figure S: Comparison of Amip (y-axis) versus Historical (x-axis) for the six selected metrics. For Amip, the averaged period is (29 years) whereas for and Historical runs the averaged period is 98-2 ( years). See Fig. for chart details.