HUMAN FINGERPRINTS (1): OBSERVATIONS

Transcription

1 HUMAN FINGERPRINTS (1): OBSERVATIONS 1. Introduction: the story so far. 2. Global warming: the last 150 years 3. Is it really warming? 4. Fingerprints: the stratosphere, the hockey sticks

2 Radiance (mw.m -2.sr -1 cm) Emission spectrum from Earth measured by NIMBUS-7 satellite, H 2 O CO 2 Atmospheric O 3 CH 4 H 2 O 320 K window K 280 K K 240 K 220 K Wave number (cm -1 ) Source: Hanel, 1971.

3 Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Source: NOAA; see also Archer, 2012, p. 93.

4 Changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide Source: IPCC, See also Archer, 2012, p. 123.

5 Carbon dioxide concentration (ppm) Couldn t this all be part of a natural cycle? Atmospheric CO 2 recorded in the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, and measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Years before present Source: data from WDC Paleoclimatology and NOAA Mauna Loa CO 2 records.

6 Greenhouse gases provide a RADIATIVE FORCING on the climate system. CO 2 : about 1.68 W.m -2 Cloud changes: about W.m -2 Albedo changes: about W.m -2 Total anthropogenic: about 2.29 W.m Source: IPCC AR5

7 The world is getting warmer. Global temperature anomalies relative to average. Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

8 Global temperature trend Source: data from NASA GISS; combined land-ocean temperature index.

9 Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 36; see also Archer, 2012, pp

10 Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 37.

11 Trends in daily extreme warmth, Extremely warm = upper 90 th percentile. Scale is days per decade. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 53.

12 Is it really getting warmer? How or why might this record be wrong?

13 From point to grid: weather stations in the USHCN Source: Menne et al., 2010, JGR- Atmospheres.

14 From point to grid: global distribution of weather stations. Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 98.

15 Gridded data in Global Historical Climatology Network. Source: National Climatic Data Center

16 Aren t the weather stations badly placed? Source: Watts, 2009, Is the US surface temperature record reliable?, Heartland Institute.

17 Satellite images of the urban heat island of Atlanta, Georgia (top-true colour; bottom- land surface temperature). Source: McCarthy et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters, doi: /2010gl042845

18 U.S. paved area approaches that of Ohio. Source: Elvidge et al., 2004, Eos: Transactions AGU, vol. 85 no. 24.

19 Temperature relative to average (Celsius) Reconstructions of global average temperature, Time (year) Source: Drawn from data retrieved from GIStemp, National Climatic Data Center, and Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature websites.

20 Sea-surface temperature measurements from ships Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 72.

21 Sea-surface temperature measurements from ships Source: IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report, 2007.

22 The Arctic is warming at twice the global rate. Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004.

23 NASA s Aqua satellite carries the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (A-MSU). Source: NASA Earth Observatory,

24 Science progresses: corrections to MSU data as we learn how to use it. Corrections to University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH) data from MSU. Source: SkepticalScience.com

25 Temperature from satellites (UAH and RSS) Temperature from surface stations (NASA GISS and NCDC) Multiple data sets all show warming. Source: data downloaded from websites of each research organization. Graph shows temperature change in Celsius for middle troposphere (satellite) and surface (surface stations), relative to different standards.

26 OK, you don t like the temperature data. What else could we look at?

27 Source: The Cryosphere Today/NSIDC

28 Source: The Cryosphere Today/NSIDC

29 Changing sea ice extent Derived from satellite images and written records. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.

30 Mallard Fillmore, cartoon, 9/24 and 9/25/2013. As printed in the Ogden Standard-Examiner.

31 Sea ice extent (million square km) Changing sea ice extent Source: Drawn using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.

32 Changing sea ice extent Derived from satellite images and written records. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.

33 Changing sea ice extent Derived from satellite images. Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, State of the Cryosphere report, 2014.

34 New melt extent on Greenland, Source: Koni Steffen.

35 Changes in mass, Greenland and Antarctica. Change in mass, , cm water. Source: NASA Source: Measurements from NASA s GRACE satellites.

36 Holgate Glacier, Alaska, Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.

37 Holgate Glacier, Alaska, Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.

38 McCall Glacier, Alaska, Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.

39 McCall Glacier, Alaska, Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center glacier rephotography collection.

40 Global glacier retreat. Source: Oerlemans, 2001, Nature; see also Archer, 2012, p. 139.

41 Global glacier retreat. Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service, 2008, Global Glacier Changes: Facts and Figures.

42 Global glacier retreat. Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service, 2008, Global Glacier Changes: Facts and Figures.

43 Glaciers worldwide are losing mass. Change in mass, , cm water. Source: NASA Source: Measurements from NASA s GRACE satellites.

44 Ice loss on Kilimanjaro. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 59.

45 Changes in the biosphere: fewer frost days in winter mean more exotic invasive species- Switzerland, Source: Walther, 2000, cited in Walther et al, 2002, Ecological responses to recent climate change, Nature vol. 416.

46 Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, pp

47 Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, pp

48 Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 57 (originally from Emanuel, 2006, Nature).

49

50 Temperature profile through the atmosphere: warming troposphere, cooling stratosphere. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 39.

51 The original hockey stick : northern hemisphere temperature reconstruction since Source: Mann, Bradley and Hughes, 1998, Global scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature vol. 392.

52 Northern hemisphere temperature change over the last 1000 years. Source: IPCC, 2001.

53 Northern hemisphere temperature change over the last 1300 years, derived from 10 different reconstructions. Medieval Warm Period, ~ Little Ice Age, ~ Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 80.

54 Reconstructions of global temperature patterns during Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Source: Mann et al., 2009, Global signatures and dynamical origins of the LIA and MCA, Science vol. 326.

55 Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 47; see also Archer, 2012, p. 145.