HUMAN FINGERPRINTS (2): CLIMATE MODELS
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1 HUMAN FINGERPRINTS (2): CLIMATE MODELS 1. Introduction: detection & attribution 2. Climate models Explaining the 20 th century warming trend 4. Pauses and forcings
2 WHAT IS A CLIMATE MODEL? A climate model is a computer program.
3 A tiny piece of NASA GISS s ModelE FORTRAN code C**** COMPUTE THE AUTOCONVERSION RATE OF CLOUD WATER TO PRECIPITATION RHO = 1.E5*PL(L)/(RGAS*TL(L)) TEM = RHO*WMX(L)/(WCONST*FCLD + 1.E-20) IF(LHX.EQ.LHS) TEM = RHO*WMX(L)/(WMUI*FCLD + 1.E-20) TEM = TEM*TEM IF(TEM.GT.10.) TEM = 10. CM1 = CM0 IF(BANDF) CM1 = CM0*CBF IF(LHX.EQ.LHS) CM1 = CM0 CM = CM1*(1.-1./EXP(TEM*TEM)) + 1.*100.*(PREBAR(L + 1) + * PRECNVL(L +1)*BYDTsrc) IF(CM.GT.BYDTsrc) CM = BYDTsrc PREP(L) = WMX(L)*CM END IF C**** FORM CLOUDS ONLY IF RH GT RH IF(RH1(L).LT.RH00(L)) GO TO 220 Source: Kolbert, 2005.
4 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CGCM2: ~3.75 grid squares. Source: CCCMA web site
5 The basic idea of a weather/ climate model: grid boxes and calculations. Source: Ruddiman, 2001, p. 74.
6 Weather/climate model grid boxes. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 65.
7 Calculations in a GCM. Source: Christopherson, 2012, p. 288.
8 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CGCM2: ~3.75 grid squares. Source: CCCMA web site
9 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CGCM3: ~2.81 grid squares. Source: CCCMA web site
10 Climate model grid, Source: IPCC, 2007.
11 Climate model grid, Source: IPCC, 2007.
12 Climate model grid, Source: IPCC, 2007.
13 Climate model grid, Source: IPCC, 2007.
14 MODEL VALIDATION 1. Can the models reproduce today s climate?
15 Models vs. observations- temperature changes Source: IPCC, 2013, AR5.
16 Models vs. observations- temperature changes Observations 58 model runs Average of 58 model runs Source: IPCC, 2007, AR4.
17 Precipitation, observations. Source: IPCC, 2007.
18 Precipitation, model average. Source: IPCC, 2007.
19 MODEL VALIDATION 1. Can the models reproduce today s climate? YES (mostly) 2. Can the models reproduce short-term forcings?
20 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Phillipines. Source: USGS
21 Volcanic eruptions and global cooling: Mt. Pinatubo eruption, Source: NOAA CPC/UK Hadley Centre.
22 MODEL VALIDATION 1. Can the models reproduce today s climate? YES (mostly) 2. Can the models reproduce short-term forcings? YES (mostly)
23 Temperature relative to average (Celsius) Reconstructions of global average temperature, Time (year) Source: Drawn from data retrieved from GIStemp, National Climatic Data Center, and Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature websites.
24 What might explain this change in temperature?
25 Maybe it s the Sun? Video source: climatecommunication.org
26 Model predictions (natural forcings only). Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 68.
27 Model predictions (natural forcings only), and observed temperatures. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 68.
28 Model predictions (natural and anthropogenic forcings). Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 69.
29 Model predictions (natural and anthropogenic forcings), and observed temperatures. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 69.
30 Observed spatial patterns of temperature change are best explained by including both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 73.
31 Observed spatial patterns of temperature change are best explained by including both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 73.
32 Temperature relative to average (Celsius) Reconstructions of global average temperature, Time (year) Source: Drawn from data retrieved from GIStemp, National Climatic Data Center, and Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature websites.
33 Different forcings push and pull at temperature. Video source: climatecommunication.org
34 El Niño years = warmer La Niña years = cooler.
35 El Niño and La Niña: ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 90.
36 El Niño and La Niña: ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 90.
37 You can SEE the effects of El Niño and La Niña on sea surface temperatures. gqk&feature=player_embedded
38 El Niño and La Niña record, : Huge El Nino year Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, : Dominant weak La Ninas
39 Temperature relative to average (Celsius) Reconstructions of global average temperature, Time (year) Source: Drawn from data retrieved from GIStemp, National Climatic Data Center, and Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature websites.
40 El Niño and La Niña record, : Huge El Nino year Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, : Dominant La Ninas : Dominant weak La Ninas
41 El Niño and La Niña explain SOME, but NOT ALL, of the temperature record.
42 El Niño years = warmer La Niña years = cooler. as shown in these data graphics from SkepticalScience.com
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