FOSSIL FUELS, ENERGY, AND THE PERTURBED CARBON CYCLE

Transcription

1 FOSSIL FUELS, ENERGY, AND THE PERTURBED CARBON CYCLE 1. Introduction 2. Why are they called fossil fuels? 3. Burning buried sunshine 4. Perturbing the carbon cycle 5. Welcome to the Anthropocene

2 A LOGICAL FALLACY Climate s always changed Because climate has changed naturally in the past, humans cannot cause or contribute to climate change.

3 Source: SkepticalScience.com.

4 HYDROSPHERE BIOSPHERE Degassing Mixing/dissolving ATMOSPHERE Photosynthesis Respiration Volcanoes Chemical weathering LITHOSPHERE

5 Magnitudes of flows and stores in the global carbon cycle. Source: Archer, 2012, p. 92.

6 Magnitudes of flows and stores in the global carbon cycle. OCEANS LAND ATMOSPHERE SEDIMENTARY ROCKS Source: Archer, 2012, p. 92.

7 HYDROSPHERE BIOSPHERE Degassing Mixing/dissolving ATMOSPHERE Photosynthesis Respiration Burning fossil fuels Volcanoes Chemical weathering LITHOSPHERE Death, decomposition, fossilization

8 Magnitudes of flows and stores in the global carbon cycle. Source: Archer, 2012, p. 92.

9 The global carbon cycle. Source: Rohli and Vega, 2008, p. 16.

10

11 TWO KEY LAWS OF THERMODYNAMICS 1. Energy cannot be created or destroyed, only converted. 2. Heat flows from where there is more to where there is less.

12 HOW DOES COAL EXEMPLIFY THE FIRST LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS?

13 HOW DOES COAL EXEMPLIFY THE FIRST LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS? Burning buried sunshine Dukes, J.S., 2003, Climatic Change vol. 61

14 CARBON TERMINOLOGY OXIDIZED vs. REDUCED CO 2 CH 4 Carbon dioxide Methane See Archer, 2012, start of chapter 8.

15 RESPIRATION Respiration allows plants (and animals) to burn sugars for energy: C 6 H 12 O O 2 glucose 6 CO H 2 O + energy 6 CO H 2 O + sunlight C 6 H 12 O O 2 glucose

16 ENERGY SOURCES, GLOBAL AND SELECTED COUNTRIES Fossil fuels Source: Archer, 2012, p. 104.

17 Use of energy sources in the U.S. Source: Archer, 2012, p. 105; data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.

18 Source: Archer, 2012, p. 110.

19 Source: Archer, 2012, p. 112.

20 Source: Archer, 2012, p. 113.

21

22 Magnitudes of flows and stores in the global carbon cycle. Source: Archer, 2012, p. 92.

23 Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration over the last 800,000 years. Source: NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory,

24 Changes in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, 10,000 years ago to 2005 AD. Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 39.

25 Changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide Source: IPCC, See also Archer, 2012, p. 123.

26 Carbon dioxide concentration (ppm) Couldn t this all be part of a natural cycle? Atmospheric CO 2 recorded in the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Years before present Source: data from WDC Paleoclimatology.

27 HYPOTHESIS: The recent spike in CO 2 is anthropogenic, not natural. OR: The recent spike in CO 2 is natural, not anthropogenic. WHAT EVIDENCE COULD WE LOOK FOR?

28 1. When did the spike begin? About the same time as the Industrial Revolution

29 Changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide Source: IPCC, See also Archer, 2012, p. 123.

30 1. When did the spike begin? About the same time as the Industrial Revolution 2. Is the recent CO 2 spike outside the natural range? YES

31 Carbon dioxide concentration (ppm) Couldn t this all be part of a natural cycle? Atmospheric CO 2 recorded in the Vostok ice core, Antarctica, and measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Years before present Source: data from WDC Paleoclimatology and NOAA Mauna Loa CO 2 records.

32 Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration over the last 800,000 years. Source: NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory,

33 1. When did the spike begin? About the same time as the Industrial Revolution 2. Is the recent CO 2 spike outside the natural range? YES 3. Do human activities produce enough CO 2? YES

34 How many more times CO 2 do humans put into the atmosphere than volcanoes? Humans emit about 130 times more CO 2 per year than volcanoes do. Source: Gerlach, 2011, Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide, Eos 92 (24)

35 Source: SkepticalScience.com

36 1. When did the spike begin? About the same time as the Industrial Revolution 2. Is the recent CO 2 spike outside the natural range? YES 3. Do human activities produce enough CO 2? YES 4. Is the chemistry consistent with fossil fuels? YES

37 Schematic showing the structure of a carbon atom. 6 electrons (-) Nucleus: 6 protons (+) 6, 7, or 8 neutrons Atomic number = 6 Atomic mass (mass number) = 12, 13 or 14 ( 12 C, 13 C or 14 C)

38 CARBON ISOTOPES Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 44. Three isotopes of carbon: 1. Carbon-12 ( 12 C) 98.9% 2. Carbon-13 ( 13 C) 1.1% 3. Carbon-14 ( 14 C) Teeny-tiny% Radioactive: half-life 5730 years

39 Plants prefer 12 C

40 Burning buried sunshine Dukes, J.S., 2003, Climatic Change vol C 12 C 12 C 13 C 12 C 12 C 12 C 12 C 12 C 13 C 13 C 12 C 14 C 12 C

41 WHAT CARBON ISOTOPES SHOULD YOU GET FROM.. (a) Burning coal (b) Forest fires Lots of 12 C, a little 14 C. (c) Volcanoes Lots of 12 C, little/no 13 C, no 14 C. 12 C, 13 C, no 14 C.

42 14 C is declining relative to total atmospheric carbon. Sources: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center and NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory

43 Changes in carbon isotope ratios ( 13 C to 12 C) recorded in Caribbean sponge skeletons (CaCO 3 ) More 13 C/Less 12 C 12 C is going up relative to total atmospheric C Less 13 C/More 12 C Source: Böhm et al, 2002

44 Changes in isotopes of atmospheric carbon since Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 35.

45 1. When did the spike begin? About the same time as the Industrial Revolution 2. Is the recent CO 2 spike outside the natural range? YES 3. Do human activities produce enough CO 2? YES 4. Is the chemistry consistent with fossil fuels? YES

46 Measurements from Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration (ppm) Atmospheric O 2 concentration (parts per meg)

47

48 HYDROSPHERE BIOSPHERE Degassing Mixing/dissolving ATMOSPHERE Photosynthesis Respiration Burning fossil fuels Volcanoes Chemical weathering LITHOSPHERE Death, decomposition, fossilization

49 HYDROSPHERE Deforestation +1.5 Gt C/year BIOSPHERE Degassing Mixing/dissolving ATMOSPHERE Photosynthesis Respiration Burning fossil fuels +8.5 Gt C/year Volcanoes Chemical weathering LITHOSPHERE Death, decomposition, fossilization

50 Emissions vs. atmospheric concentration of CO 2. Source: Mann and Kump, 2009, p. 94; see also Archer, 2012, p

51 HYDROSPHERE Deforestation +1.5 Gt C/year BIOSPHERE Degassing Mixing/dissolving +10 Gt C/year ATMOSPHERE +4 Gt C/year Photosynthesis Respiration Burning fossil fuels +8.5 Gt C/year Volcanoes Chemical weathering LITHOSPHERE Death, decomposition, fossilization

52 The ph scale Source: Winner, 2011, The socioeconomic costs of ocean acidification, Oceanus March , available warticle.do?id=65266

53 Effects of elevated CO 2 on marine organism calcification Source: Ocean Acidification: An International Science Symposium Series,

54 Projected future ocean acidification Source: Feely et al., 2009, Oceanography vol. 22 pp , cited in Winner, 2011, The socioeconomic costs of ocean acidification, Oceanus March , available

55 Saturation state of aragonite in the greater Caribbean region estimated from satellite observations Source: Gledhill et al., 2009, Observing ocean acidification from space, Oceanography vol. 22 no. 4 pp , available

56 Measurements of dissolved CO 2 and ph from two sites in the Atlantic Ocean and one in the Pacific Source: IPCC, 2013, Fifth Assessment Report Working Group I Summary for Policymakers,

57 HYDROSPHERE Degassing Mixing/dissolving +10 Gt C/year ATMOSPHERE +4 Gt C/year Deforestation +1.5 Gt C/year BIOSPHERE Photosynthesis Respiration +4.0 Gt C/year Burning fossil fuels +8.5 Gt C/year Volcanoes Chemical weathering LITHOSPHERE Death, decomposition, fossilization

58 Temperature relative to present (Celsius) Pleistocene and Holocene Holocene: the last 10,000 years Pleistocene: from ~2.5 million to 10,000 years ago Years before present Source: drawn using Vostok ice core data first published by JR Petit, available from World Data Center for Paleoclimatology,

59 Central Greenland temperature (Celsius) Central Greenland temperature estimated from GISP 2 stable isotopes Anthropocene Pleistocene Holocene WARM Years before present COLD Source: drawn using GISP2 ice core data first published by Richard Alley, available from World Data Center for Paleoclimatology,

60 Changes in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, 10,000 years ago to 2005 AD. Source: Houghton, 2009, p. 39.

61 The Anthropocene: 1780s to present? Source: IPCC, See also Archer, 2012.