Enhancing short term wind energy forecasting for improved utility operations: The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)
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1 Enhancing short term wind energy forecasting for improved utility operations: The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) Jim Wilczak NOAA S. Benjamin, I. Djalalova, L. Bianco, S. Calvert, J. Freedman, C. Finley, K. Orwig, M. Marquis, G. DiMego, J. Cline, K. Clawson, R. Coulter, A. Stern
2 Can wind energy grid integration costs be decreased by improving wind energy forecasts through 1) better NWP models and 2) by deploying new meteorological observations and assimilating them into those NWP models?
3 Goals of Project Improve short-range forecasts (0-6 h) of wind speed, direction, and turbulence at wind turbine hub-height. Deploy a regional network of upper-air remote sensing observations Combine this network with industry provided talltower and wind turbine nacelle meteorological observations Assimilate this data into NOAA s developmental Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) NWP models Demonstrate that the improved forecasts can reduce the cost of wind energy WFIP instrumentation is being deployed for an ~12 month period: August 2011 September 2012
4 WFIP Partners DOE/ANL, LLNL, NREL, PNNL NOAA/ESRL, ARL, NWS Wind Logics Inc. AWS TruePower, LLC. Midwest System Independent Operator (MISO) Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
5 New Instrumentation 915 MHz radar profiler 0.1-4km Sodar m Tower 50-80m 449 MHz ¼ scale radar profiler 0.2-8km Lidar m Surface Flux 10m Nacelle anemometers 85m Data Quality Control is Important!!!
6 Elev. (m) Buffalo Cheyenne Watford City Oliver (I,II) Pierre ND Bismarck SD NE Langdon (I,II) Leeds Valley City Wilton (I,II) Mobridge South Dakota Ainsworth Fargo Edgley Basin Sioux Falls Winnipeg Ashtabula (I,II) Day County Omaha Lincoln MN Minneapolis De Smet Lake Benton (II) Wessington Springs St. James Endeavor (I,II) Hancock Sioux City Story County (I,II) Nextera windfarm centroids SDSU tall towers Surface met. New Surface flux NWS Nexrad New 915-MHz wind profilers New 449-MHz wind profilers New sodar New lidar Existing 404-MHz wind profilers IA Duluth Mower County Crystal Lake (I,II,III) Cerro Gordo Des Moines Dubuque WI 9 profilers 5 sodars 1 lidar Industry tall towers not shown Northern Study Area
7
8 3 profilers 7 sodars Industry tall towers not shown Southern Study Area
9 Hourly Updated NOAA NWP Models 13km Rapid Refresh domain RUC older oper model - 13km Rapid Refresh (RR) new WRF-based oper model in May km HRRR - Hi-Res Rapid Refresh -Experimental 3km -15h fcst updated every hour - Initialized from RUC/RR All models re-initialized and run every hour, run to at least 15 hs, 3D var data assimilation Current RUC CONUS domain 3km HRRR OPERATIONAL (NWS) RESEARCH domain (ESRL) HRRR (w/ WFIP obs) Rapid Refresh (RAP) RAP(w/ WFIP obs) Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) RUC (w/ WFIP obs)
10 RUC/Rapid Refresh Hourly assimilation cycle Cycle hydrometeors Cycle soil temp., moisture, snow 1-hr fcst Background Fields 3DVAR Obs 1-hr fcst Analysis Fields 3DVAR Obs 1-hr fcst Time (UTC) Hourly observations (stations for raobs/profiles) Rawinsonde (T,V,RH) 120 Profiler NOAA Network (V) 21 Profiler 915 MHz (V, Tv) 25 Radar VAD (V) 125 Radar reflectivity - CONUS Lightning (proxy reflectivity) # obs N.Amer 2km NLDN Aircraft (V,T) 2-15K Aircraft - WVSS (RH) Aircraft TAMDAR (V,T,RH) 0-50 Surface/METAR (T,Td,V,ps,cloud, vis, wx) Buoys/ships (V, ps) Mesonet (T, Td, V, ps) 4500 GOES AMVs (V) AMSU/HIRS radiances GOES cloud-top pressure/temp Used 13km WindSat scatterometer 2-10K
11 Model evaluation using tall tower observations Old operational model (RUC) no WFIP obs assimilated vs New research model (RAP) combined with WFIP obs OPERATIONAL (NWS) RESEARCH (ESRL) HRRR (w/ WFIP obs) Rapid Refresh (RAP) RAP(w/ WFIP obs) Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) RUC (w/ WFIP obs) Combined Combined North Domain 39 towers South Domain 15 towers % Improvement Vector wind RMSE
12 Model evaluation using tall tower observations Old model (RUC) vs New model (RAP) Comb d Model North Domain 39 towers OPERATIONAL (NWS) RESEARCH (ESRL) HRRR (w/ WFIP obs) Rapid Refresh (RAP) RAP(w/ WFIP obs) Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) RUC (w/ WFIP obs) Comb d Model South Domain 15 towers % Improvement Vector wind RMSE
13 Model evaluation using tall tower observations Model without WFIP obs vs. Similar model with WFIP obs OPERATIONAL (NWS) Rapid Refresh (RAP) Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) RESEARCH (ESRL) HRRR (w/ WFIP obs) RAP(w/ WFIP obs) RUC (w/ WFIP obs) Caveat: Models have Same dynamic core Same grids Same physical parameterizations Some differences, including cloud initializations Comb d Model Obs?? Comb d Model Obs?? North Domain 39 towers South Domain 15 towers Data Denial Experiments Needed!!! % Improvement Vector wind RMSE
14 Model evaluation using vertically averaged ( m) wind profiler observations Northern domain RAP and RUC models OPERATIONAL (NWS) Rapid Refresh (RAP) Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) No WFIP data With WFIP data RESEARCH (ESRL) HRRR (w/ WFIP obs) RAP(w/ WFIP obs) RUC (w/ WFIP obs) ESRL RAP NCEP RAP No WFIP data Vector wind RMSE With WFIP data ESRL RUC NCEP RUC N Study Area, 9 profiler average, m
15 Preliminary Economic Results Southern Region Analyses performed for shoulder month October 2011 when load is low and wind speeds are higher Operational Cost Savings are dependent on natural gas prices average actual price of 3.44 $/MMBtu used for October in Texas Preliminary results show both environmental and cost benefits as a result of improved forecasts
16 Summary 12% - 4% reduction in vector wind RMSE for forecast hours 1-6 for combined effect of new observations and new model. Preliminary analysis indicates that a large portion of this improvement comes from the use of a better model (RAP vs RUC) but that assimilation of new observations also makes a significant contribution. Data denial experiments are needed to verify this result. Significant economic and environmental benefits would have occurred with the new forecasts Next Steps Run data denial simulations using identical models Develop metrics for ramp events
17 Google: DOE WFIP
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