Weather Hazard Modeling Research and development: Recent Advances and Plans
|
|
- Lesley May
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Weather Hazard Modeling Research and development: Recent Advances and Plans Stephen S. Weygandt Curtis Alexander, Stan Benjamin, Geoff Manikin*, Tanya Smirnova, Ming Hu NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory *NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather NBAA Convention, Nov 2-3, 2016
2 High-resolution models of hazardous weather now making very realistic s Loop of radar reflectivity Observations 1 hour HRRR Storm details can be wrong Valid Given s are not always exactly right Missing radar observations NGM model guidance around 1990 How to improve decision making with inexact s? How can we continue to make s better? Very realistic s
3 Continued improvement for Rapidly updated, High-resolution models Improvement each year Critical Success Index HRRR Reflectivity Verification HRRR V1 22z + hr s HRRR V2 V2 03z V1 NCEP version Radar Observed
4 Continued improvement for Rapidly updated, High-resolution models RAP - upper-air verification Improvement to moisture / microphysics / precipitation, boundary layer / surface energy balance, ensemble assimilation Ongoing study to evaluate how improvements map to aviation decision-making improvements (GSD, AvMet)
5 Accurate prediction of hazardous weather Higher resolution models with better physics What are the key requirements? Reality 3-km 13-km Best use of observations (Ensemble data assimilation) Rawins Aircraft Surface Satellite Radar Profiler Rapid updating -- Fresher s -- Time-lagged ensembles Wind Errors 6-hr LAX ORD 3-hr LAX ORD
6 The benefits of rapid updating: June 16, 2014 NE twin tornadoes ~21z 16 June 14z + 7hr Successive HRRR runs converging to solution 1z + 6hr 16z + hr 17z + 4hr 21z 16 June radar obs
7 HRRR example of consistent solutions: May 11, 2014 NE squall-line 1z+7h 16z+6h 17z+h 22z 11 May Successive HRRR runs have consistent solution Storm Reports (obs) HRRR Updraft Helicity Time-Lagged Ensemble
8 Arkansas HRRR (and HRRR Tornadoes RAP) Milestones Future April Milestones Arkansas tornadoes Sunday 27 April fatalities 3 fatalities Tornado Track
9 Arkansas tornadoes: very challenging case 1z+10h HRRR Updraft Helicity 16z+9h Time-lagged ensemble of specific hazard indicator 17z+8h 18z+7h 19z+6h
10 Model ensembles: Key to assessing likelihood Deterministic 19 UTC Member 1 Member 2 Member 3 00 UTC Observations Supercell probability past hour 00 UTC
11 How do ensembles s help? Old way one deterministic 100% 80% Single snow Actual snowfall 60% 40% 20% 0% Inches of snow
12 How do ensembles s help? Old way one deterministic New way run an ensemble of s get information about range of possible outcomes 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 0 Forecast snow accumulation chances Inches of snow Example: Run model 100 times with slightly different settings
13 How do ensembles s help? Old way one deterministic New way run an ensemble of s get information about range of possible outcomes 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 0 Forecast snow accumulation chances Almost NO chance Of less than Inches of snow Example: Run model 100 times with slightly different settings
14 How do ensembles s help? Old way one deterministic New way run an ensemble of s get information about range of possible outcomes 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 0 Forecast snow accumulation chances 0 / 0 chance of or more Inches of snow Example: Run model 100 times with slightly different settings
15 How do ensembles s help? Old way one deterministic 100% 80% Single snow Forecast snow accumulation chances New way run an ensemble of s get information about range of possible outcomes 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 0 Even without an ensemble Inches of snow you still get the deterministic 21z 16 June radar obs
16 How do ensembles s help? Old way one deterministic New way run an ensemble of s get information about range of possible outcomes 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Single snow 0% 0 0 Forecast snow accumulation chances Users assume a range of possible outcomes Inches of snow Forecast users will make their own assumptions about the range of possible outcomes
17 How do ensembles s help? Old way one deterministic New way run an ensemble of s get information about range of possible outcomes 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% One more key benefit from ensembles: Old single snow 0% 0 0 Forecast snow accumulation chances Actual snowfall Inches of snow
18 How do ensembles s help? Old way one deterministic New way run an ensemble of s get information about range of possible outcomes 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 0 One more key benefit from ensembles: ensemble data assimilation improves the deterministic Better single snow Forecast snow accumulation chances Actual snowfall Inches of snow Need ensembles the most for the most challenging situations
19 More information on ensembles Types of ensembles: 1) Ensembles of opportunity -- Time-lagged ensemble (HRRR-TLE) -- Multi-model ensembles (SSEO) ADS: computationally inexpensive DISADS: model clustering, members not independent Example of model clustering Actual Model A Model B 2) Designed ensembles -- Perturbed members of single ensemble system (Global Ensemble Forecast System, HRRR-Ensemble) ADS: More useful spread, ensemble assimilation DISADS: computationally expensive
20 HRRR-TLE example: 18 April z+13h 00z+12h 01z+11h accum. precip. HRRR-TLE probability of 6hr QPF exceeding 100 year average return interval (ARI) Obs. 12-hr precip.
21 HRRR Time-Lagged Ensemble (HRRR-TLE): GSD real-time product generation Real-Time Web Graphics (and grids via LDM/FTP) Echo-Top > 2 kft Probability of condition) Echo-Top > 30 kft Echo-Top > 3 kft MVFR IFR
22 HRRR Ensemble (HRRRE) Web Graphics (real-time HRRRE to resume Nov. 2016) Single core (ARW) Ensemble DA (GSI-EnKF) RAP mean + perturbations Planned Fall 2016 Refinements Add radar reflectivity data assimilation Stochastic physics Apply HRRR-TLE statistical processing Include lagged members? Assimilation Forecast 20 members 00z - Three mem to 30 hr 1 hr cycling 03z - Three mem to 27 hr 21 fcsts / day 12z - Six mem to 18 hr Start 21z day zero 1z - Eighteen mem to 1 hr End 18z day one 18z - Eighteen mem to 12 hr Proof-of-concept Real-time demonstration
23 Comparison: HRRR-TLE and HRRRE Updraft Helicity > 2 m 2 /s 2 from Different members HRRR-Ensemble 1z + 7 hr Time-Lagged Ensemble 1z-17z initializations
24 A challenge of ensembles: Displaying output / conveying information Who is the user? Postage stamp plots Snow accumulation with time Need more creative display methods Extract hazard specific information Simplify display, only most critical information Mean and spread Spaghetti plots Plume diagrams Paintball plots Probability regions Feed ensemble information into decision support systems?
25 Rapid Refresh and HRRR NOAA hourly updated models 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) Version 3 -- NCEP implement 23 Aug 2016 Version 4 GSD Planned NCEP Early km High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Version 2 NCEP implement 23 Aug 2016 RAP (13-km) HRRR (3-km) Version 3 GSD Planned NCEP Early 2018 HRRR v3 plan HRRR-E (Ensemble)
26
Development of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Ensemble Data Assimilation, Forecasts and Post Processing
7 th Ensemble Users Workshop Ensemble Development I Development of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Ensemble Data Assimilation, Forecasts and Post Processing 14 June 2016 Curtis Alexander, David Dowell,
More informationAircraft-based Observations: Impact on weather forecast model performance
Aircraft-based Observations: Impact on weather forecast model performance Stephen S. Weygandt Eric James, Stan Benjamin, Bill Moninger, Brian Jamison, Geoff Manikin* NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
More informationDevelopment of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Ensemble Data Assimilation, Forecast and Post-Processing
CORP Science Symposium, July 18-19, 2016, Fort Collins Development of High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Ensemble Data Assimilation, Forecast and Post-Processing Isidora Jankov, Curtis Alexander, David
More information2012 and changes to the Rapid Refresh and HRRR weather forecast models
2012 and 2013-15 changes to the Rapid Refresh and HRRR weather forecast models 31 October 2012 Stan Benjamin Steve Weygandt Curtis Alexander NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, CO FPAW - 2012
More informationIntroduction to NCEP's time lagged North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble Forecast System (NARRE-TL)
Introduction to NCEP's time lagged North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble Forecast System (NARRE-TL) Binbin Zhou 1,2, Jun Du 2, Geoff Manikin 2 & Geoff DiMego 2 1. I.M. System Group 2. EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
More informationCanadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and American Meteorological Society 21 st Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction 31 May 2012
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society and American Meteorological Society 21 st Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction 31 May 2012 The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (): An hourly updating
More informationNOAA s Severe Weather Forecasting System: HRRR to WoF to FACETS
NOAA s Severe Weather Forecasting System: HRRR to WoF to FACETS David D NOAA / Earth System Research Laboratory / Global Systems Division Nowcasting and Mesoscale Research Working Group Meeting World Meteorological
More informationPlans for NOAA s regional ensemble systems: NARRE, HRRRE, and a regional hybrid assimilation
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Plans for NOAA s regional ensemble systems: NARRE, HRRRE, and a regional hybrid assimilation Tom Hamill (substituting for Stan Benjamin and team) NOAA Earth System
More informationweather forecast Improving NOAA models for energy Stan Benjamin, Boulder, CO USA Joseph Olson, Curtis Alexander, Eric James,
Lamont, OK X Obs radar 5h HRRR Forecast Improving NOAA weather forecast models for energy Stan Benjamin, Joseph Olson, Curtis Alexander, Eric James, Dave Turner, Melinda Marquis NOAA Earth System Research
More informationConvection-Allowing Models (CAMs) A discussion on Creating a Roadmap to a Unified CAM-based Data-Assimilation and Forecast Ensemble
Convection-Allowing Models (CAMs) A discussion on Creating a Roadmap to a Unified CAM-based Data-Assimilation and Forecast Ensemble Panel Members Curtis Alexander (ESRL/GSD) Adam Clark (NSSL) Lucas Harris
More informationApplications in situational awareness high-resolution NWP -- Ideas for the Blueprint DA discussion
Applications in situational awareness high-resolution NWP -- Ideas for the Blueprint DA discussion 8 March 2016 Stan Benjamin, David Dowell, Curtis Alexander NOAA/ESRL/GLOBAL SYSTEMS DIVISION Situational
More informationFPAW October Pat Murphy & David Bright NWS Aviation Weather Center
FPAW October 2014 Pat Murphy & David Bright NWS Aviation Weather Center Overview Ensemble & Probabilistic Forecasts What AWC Is Doing Now Ensemble Processor What s In Development (NOAA Aviation Weather
More informationA 21st century HRRR-based approach to estimating probable maximum precipitation to enhance dam safety and community resilience
30 May 2017 FIRO Science Task Group Workshop A 21st century HRRR-based approach to estimating probable maximum precipitation to enhance dam safety and community resilience Courtesy Bill McCormick, Chief,
More informationFigure 1. Observations assimilated into RUC as of 2008 after upgrade, new observations in bold and with leading arrows.
6.2 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RADAR-ENHANCED RUC Stan Benjamin, Stephen S. Weygandt, John M. Brown, Tanya Smirnova 2, Dezso Devenyi 2, Kevin Brundage 3, Georg Grell 2, Steven Peckham 2, William R. Moninger,
More informationA Cycled GSI+EnKF and Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting (SSEF) Experiment
A Cycled GSI+EnKF and Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting (SSEF) Experiment Fanyou Kong, Ming Xue, Youngsun Jung, Keith A. Brewster, Gang Zhao Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms University of Oklahoma
More informationASSIMILATION OF METAR CLOUD AND VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS IN THE RUC
9.13 ASSIMILATION OF METAR CLOUD AND VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS IN THE RUC Stanley G. Benjamin, Stephen S. Weygandt, John M. Brown, Tracy Lorraine Smith 1, Tanya Smirnova 2, William R. Moninger, Barry Schwartz,
More informationThe Nowcasting Demonstration Project for London 2012
The Nowcasting Demonstration Project for London 2012 Susan Ballard, Zhihong Li, David Simonin, Jean-Francois Caron, Brian Golding, Met Office, UK Introduction The success of convective-scale NWP is largely
More informationProgress in Aviation Weather Forecasting for ATM Decision Making FPAW 2010
Progress in Aviation Weather Forecasting for ATM Decision Making FPAW 2010 Jim Evans Marilyn Wolfson 21 October 2010-1 Overview (1) Integration with storm avoidance models and ATC route usage models (2)
More informationConvective-scale NWP for Singapore
Convective-scale NWP for Singapore Hans Huang and the weather modelling and prediction section MSS, Singapore Dale Barker and the SINGV team Met Office, Exeter, UK ECMWF Symposium on Dynamical Meteorology
More informationEvaluation of Ensemble Icing Probability Forecasts in NCEP s SREF, VSREF and NARRE-TL Systems
Evaluation of Ensemble Icing Probability Forecasts in NCEP s, V and Systems Binbin Zhou 1,2, Jun Du 2, Geoff DeMigo 2 and Robert Sallee 3 1. I.M. System Group 2. Environmental Modeling Center of NCEP 3.
More informationConvective-scale Warn-on-Forecast The Future of Severe Weather Warnings in the USA?
Convective-scale Warn-on-Forecast The Future of Severe Weather Warnings in the USA? David J. Stensrud Department of Meteorology The Pennsylvania State University Present Warning System: 2 March 2012 Warning
More informationThe National Weather Service of the Future: Building a Weather-Ready Nation
The of the Future: Building a Weather-Ready Nation Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services NCEP Production Suite Review December 2, 2014 Outline Building a Weather-Ready
More informationThunderstorm-Scale EnKF Analyses Verified with Dual-Polarization, Dual-Doppler Radar Data
Thunderstorm-Scale EnKF Analyses Verified with Dual-Polarization, Dual-Doppler Radar Data David Dowell and Wiebke Deierling National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO Ensemble Data Assimilation
More informationUpdate on CoSPA Storm Forecasts
Update on CoSPA Storm Forecasts Haig August 2, 2011 This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions,
More informationVerifying Ensemble Forecasts Using A Neighborhood Approach
Verifying Ensemble Forecasts Using A Neighborhood Approach Craig Schwartz NCAR/MMM schwartz@ucar.edu Thanks to: Jack Kain, Ming Xue, Steve Weiss Theory, Motivation, and Review Traditional Deterministic
More informationNCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System: what we have and what we need? Jun Du. NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
N C E P NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) System: what we have and what we need? Jun Du NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (for NSF EarthCube Workshop, NCAR, Dec. 17-18, 2012) 1 An evolving
More informationReport on EN6 DTC Ensemble Task 2014: Preliminary Configuration of North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE)
Report on EN6 DTC Ensemble Task 2014: Preliminary Configuration of North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE) Motivation As an expansion of computing resources for operations at EMC is becoming available
More informationFAA Weather Research Plans
FAA Weather Research Plans Presented to: Friends /Partners in Aviation Weather Vision Forum By: Ray Moy FAA Aviation Weather Office Date: Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) Purpose: Applied Research
More information11.1 CONVECTION FORECASTS FROM THE HOURLY UPDATED, 3-KM HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL
Preprints, 24 th Conference on Severe Local Storms, October 2008, Savannah, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 11.1 CONVECTION FORECASTS FROM THE HOURLY UPDATED, 3-KM HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL Tracy
More informationCAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting (SSEF) System
CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting (SSEF) System Fanyou Kong, Ming Xue, Xuguang Wang, Keith Brewster Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms University of Oklahoma (collaborated with NSSL, SPC,
More informationConsolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) Overview
Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) Overview Ray Moy (FAA), Bill Dupree (MIT LL Lead), and Matthias Steiner (NCAR Lead) 27 September 2007 NBAA User Panel Review - 1 Consolidated Storm Prediction
More informationChengsi Liu 1, Ming Xue 1, 2, Youngsun Jung 1, Lianglv Chen 3, Rong Kong 1 and Jingyao Luo 3 ISDA 2019
Development of Optimized Radar Data Assimilation Capability within the Fully Coupled EnKF EnVar Hybrid System for Convective Permitting Ensemble Forecasting and Testing via NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed
More informationJ th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 90th AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, Jan, 2010
J12.3 14th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, 90th AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, 17-21 Jan, 20 Introduction to the NCEP Very Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (VSREF) Binbin
More informationJ3.4 FROM THE RADAR-ENHANCED RUC TO THE WRF-BASED RAPID REFRESH. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO
22 nd Conf. Wea. Analysis Forecasting / 18 th Conf. Num Wea. Pred., June 2007, Park City, UT, Amer. Meteor. Soc. J3.4 FROM THE RADAR-ENHANCED RUC TO THE WRF-BASED RAPID REFRESH Stan Benjamin, Stephen S.
More informationIndiana County Flash Flood of 22 June 2017
Indiana County Flash Flood of 22 June 2017 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Slow moving thunderstorms brought 3 to 4 inches of rainfall to Indiana County, PA during
More informationDevelopment of an Hourly- Updated NAM Forecast System
Development of an Hourly- Updated NAM Forecast System Jacob Carley ab, Eric Rogers b, Shun Liu ab, Brad Ferrier ab, Eric Aligo ab, Matthew Pyle b, and Geoff DiMego b a IMSG, b NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC jacob.carley@noaa.gov
More informationNortheastern United States Snowstorm of 9 February 2017
Northeastern United States Snowstorm of 9 February 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A strong shortwave produced a stripe of precipitation
More information09 December 2005 snow event by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
09 December 2005 snow event by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A winter storm produced heavy snow over a large portion of Pennsylvania on 8-9 December
More informationAmy Harless. Jason Levit, David Bright, Clinton Wallace, Bob Maxson. Aviation Weather Center Kansas City, MO
Amy Harless Jason Levit, David Bright, Clinton Wallace, Bob Maxson Aviation Weather Center Kansas City, MO AWC Mission Decision Support for Traffic Flow Management Ensemble Applications at AWC Testbed
More informationImplementation and Evaluation of WSR-88D Reflectivity Data Assimilation for WRF-ARW via GSI and Cloud Analysis. Ming Hu University of Oklahoma
Implementation and Evaluation of WSR-88D Reflectivity Data Assimilation for WRF-ARW via GSI and Cloud Analysis Ming Hu University of Oklahoma 1. Previous work and Goal of visiting Previous work: Radar
More informationrecent Météo-France work on AROME-EPS Robert Osinski & François Bouttier - CNRM, Toulouse
recent Météo-France work on AROME-EPS Robert Osinski & François Bouttier - CNRM, Toulouse Evolution of the preoperational system Architecture New resolution & domain Coping with small ensemble size Space/Time
More informationThe Impacts of GPS Radio Occultation Data on the Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones. Bill Kuo, Xingqin Fang, and Hui Liu UCAR COSMIC
The Impacts of GPS Radio Occultation Data on the Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones Bill Kuo, Xingqin Fang, and Hui Liu UCAR COSMIC GPS Radio Occultation α GPS RO observations advantages for
More informationAir Force Weather Ensembles
16 th Weather Squadron Fly - Fight - Win Air Force Weather Ensembles Scott Rentschler Fine Scale and Ensemble Models 16WS/WXN Background Air Force Weather Decision Support: Weather impacts on specific
More informationP2.5. Preprint, 18 th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction American Meteorological Society, Park City, UT
Preprint, 18 th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction American Meteorological Society, Park City, UT P2.5 Development and Testing of a New Cloud Analysis Package using Radar, Satellite, and Surface
More informationAN ENSEMBLE STRATEGY FOR ROAD WEATHER APPLICATIONS
11.8 AN ENSEMBLE STRATEGY FOR ROAD WEATHER APPLICATIONS Paul Schultz 1 NOAA Research - Forecast Systems Laboratory Boulder, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION In 1999 the Federal Highways Administration (FHWA) initiated
More informationHRRR-AK: Status and Future of a High- Resolu8on Forecast Model for Alaska
HRRR-AK: Status and Future of a High- Resolu8on Forecast Model for Alaska Trevor Alco* 1, Jiang Zhu 2, Don Morton 3, Ming Hu 4, Cur8s Alexander 1 1 ESRL Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO 2 GINA/UAF,
More informationHybrid Variational-Ensemble Data Assimilation at NCEP. Daryl Kleist
Hybrid Variational-Ensemble Data Assimilation at NCEP Daryl Kleist NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC with acnowledgements to Kayo Ide, Dave Parrish, Jeff Whitaer, John Derber, Russ Treadon, Wan-Shu Wu, Jacob Carley, and
More informationWeather Evaluation Team (WET)
Weather Evaluation Team (WET) Presented to: Friends and Partners in Aviation Weather Kevin Johnston ATCSCC Tom Fahey Delta Air Lines 1 WET Membership FAA Denver ARTCC Atlanta ARTCC ATCSCC Minneapolis TRACON
More informationEmerging Aviation Weather Research at MIT Lincoln Laboratory*
Emerging Aviation Weather Research at MIT Lincoln Laboratory* Haig 19 November 2015 *This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002. Opinions,
More informationComparing Variational, Ensemble-based and Hybrid Data Assimilations at Regional Scales
Comparing Variational, Ensemble-based and Hybrid Data Assimilations at Regional Scales Meng Zhang and Fuqing Zhang Penn State University Xiang-Yu Huang and Xin Zhang NCAR 4 th EnDA Workshop, Albany, NY
More informationImprovement and Ensemble Strategy of Heavy-Rainfall Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts using a Cloud-Resolving Model in Taiwan
Improvement and Ensemble Strategy of Heavy-Rainfall Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts using a Cloud-Resolving Model in Taiwan Chung-Chieh Wang Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University,
More informationNew 16km NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system: what we have and what we need? (SREF.v6.0.0, implementation date: Aug. 21.
New 16km NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system: what we have and what we need? (SREF.v6.0.0, implementation date: Aug. 21. 2012) Jun Du, Geoff DiMego, Binbin Zhou, Dusan Jovic, Brad Ferrier,
More informationHIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH COUPLED WITH SMOKE (HRRR- SMOKE): REAL-TIME AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION TO CASE STUDIES
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH COUPLED WITH SMOKE (HRRR- SMOKE): REAL-TIME AIR QUALITY MODELING SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION TO CASE STUDIES Ravan Ahmadov 1,2 (ravan.ahmadov@noaa.gov) Acknowledgement: G.
More informationConvection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts at CAPS for Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT)
Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts at CAPS for Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Ming Xue Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms and School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma mxue@ou.edu August,
More informationUnderstanding Weather and Climate Risk. Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017
Understanding Weather and Climate Risk Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017 What is risk in a weather and climate context? Hazard: something with the
More informationImplementation and evaluation of cloud analysis with WSR-88D reflectivity data for GSI and WRF-ARW
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L07808, doi:10.1029/2006gl028847, 2007 Implementation and evaluation of cloud analysis with WSR-88D reflectivity data for GSI and WRF-ARW
More informationSPC Ensemble Applications: Current Status and Future Plans
: Current Status and Future Plans Israel Jirak Science Support Branch Storm Prediction Center Norman, OK Acknowledgments: Steve Weiss, Andy Dean, Gregg Grosshans, and Chris Melick Outline Large-Scale Guidance:
More informationAir Force Weather Ensembles
16 th Weather Squadron Fly - Fight - Win Air Force Weather Ensembles Evan Kuchera Fine Scale and Ensemble Models 16WS/WXN Background Meeting theme: Develop better, ensemble-derived, decision support products
More informationNOAA Research and Development Supporting NextGen. Darien Davis NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research June 22, 2009
NOAA Research and Development Supporting NextGen Darien Davis Darien.l.davis@noaa.gov NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research June 22, 2009 FAA/NOAA Coordination Developing an integrated science
More informationEnsemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Radar Data for a Convective Storm using a Two-moment Microphysics Scheme 04/09/10
Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation of Radar Data for a Convective Storm using a Two-moment Microphysics Scheme 04/09/10 Youngsun Jung 1, Ming Xue 1,2, and Mingjing Tong 3 CAPS 1 and School of Meteorology
More informationENSEMBLE FORECASTS AND VERIFICATION OF THE MAY 2015 MULTI-HAZARD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN OKLAHOMA. Austin Coleman 1, Nusrat Yussouf 2
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS AND VERIFICATION OF THE MAY 2015 MULTI-HAZARD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN OKLAHOMA Austin Coleman 1, Nusrat Yussouf 2 1 National Weather Center Research Experience for Undergraduates Program,
More informationStrategic Radar Enhancement Project (SREP) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) The future is here and now
Strategic Radar Enhancement Project (SREP) Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) The future is here and now Michael Berechree National Manager Aviation Weather Services Australian Bureau of Meteorology
More informationJidong Gao and David Stensrud. NOAA/National Severe Storm Laboratory Norman, Oklahoma
Assimilation of Reflectivity and Radial Velocity in a Convective-Scale, Cycled 3DVAR Framework with Hydrometeor Classification Jidong Gao and David Stensrud NOAA/National Severe Storm Laboratory Norman,
More informationVariable-Resoluiton Global Atmospheric Modeling Spanning Convective to Planetary Scales
Variable-Resoluiton Global Atmospheric Modeling Spanning Convective to Planetary Scales Bill Skamarock, NCAR/MMM MPAS consists of geophysical fluid-flow solvers based on unstructured centroidal Voronoi
More informationConvection-Resolving NWP with WRF. Section coordinator Ming Xue University of Oklahoma
Convection-Resolving NWP with WRF Section coordinator Ming Xue University of Oklahoma Convection-resolving NWP Is NWP that explicitly treats moist convective systems ranging from organized MCSs to individual
More informationNumerical Weather Prediction: Data assimilation. Steven Cavallo
Numerical Weather Prediction: Data assimilation Steven Cavallo Data assimilation (DA) is the process estimating the true state of a system given observations of the system and a background estimate. Observations
More informationUsing Convection-Allowing Models to Produce Forecast Guidance For Severe Thunderstorm Hazards via a Surrogate-Severe Approach!
Using Convection-Allowing Models to Produce Forecast Guidance For Severe Thunderstorm Hazards via a Surrogate-Severe Approach! Ryan Sobash! University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, OK! J.
More informationThe Developmental Testbed Center: Update on Data Assimilation System Testing and Community Support
93rd AMS Annual Meeting/17th IOAS-AOLS/3rd Conference on Transition of Research to Operations, Austin, TX, Jan 6-10, 2013 The Developmental Testbed Center: Update on Data Assimilation System Testing and
More informationExtracting probabilistic severe weather guidance from convection-allowing model forecasts. Ryan Sobash 4 December 2009 Convection/NWP Seminar Series
Extracting probabilistic severe weather guidance from convection-allowing model forecasts Ryan Sobash 4 December 2009 Convection/NWP Seminar Series Identification of severe convection in high-resolution
More information4.5 A WRF-DART study of the nontornadic and tornadic supercells intercepted by VORTEX2 on 10 June 2010
4.5 A WRF-DART study of the nontornadic and tornadic supercells intercepted by VORTEX2 on 10 June 2010 ALICIA M. KLEES AND YVETTE P. RICHARDSON The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania.
More information0-6 hour Weather Forecast Guidance at The Weather Company. Steven Honey, Joseph Koval, Cathryn Meyer, Peter Neilley The Weather Company
1 0-6 hour Weather Forecast Guidance at The Weather Company Steven Honey, Joseph Koval, Cathryn Meyer, Peter Neilley The Weather Company TWC Forecasts: Widespread Adoption 2 0-6 Hour Forecast Details 3
More informationPanel Session 8: Current Capabilities and Future Plans for Surface Transportation Weather Support
Panel Session 8: Current Capabilities and Future Plans for Surface Transportation Weather Support Andrew Stern Chief Operations Officer, OCWWS NOAA/ AMS Washington Forum, April 3, 2014 Weather-related
More informationSome Applications of WRF/DART
Some Applications of WRF/DART Chris Snyder, National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division (MMM), and Institue for Mathematics Applied to Geoscience (IMAGe) WRF/DART
More informationThe EMC Mission.. In response to operational requirements:
The EMC Mission.. In response to operational requirements: Maintain operational model suite The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems Modify current operational
More informationImplementation and evaluation of a regional data assimilation system based on WRF-LETKF
Implementation and evaluation of a regional data assimilation system based on WRF-LETKF Juan José Ruiz Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CONICET University of Buenos Aires) With many thanks
More information1. INTRODUCTION 3. PROJECT DATAFLOW
P10.5 THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED 2008 SPRING EXPERIMENT: TECHINCAL AND SCIENTIFIC CHALLENGES OF CREATING A DATA VISUALIZATION ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM- SCALE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS Jason
More informationCurrent and future configurations of MOGREPS-UK. Susanna Hagelin EWGLAM/SRNWP, Rome, 4 Oct 2016
Current and future configurations of MOGREPS-UK Susanna Hagelin EWGLAM/SRNWP, Rome, 4 Oct 2016 Contents Current configuration PS38 and package trial results Soil moisture perturbations case study Future
More informationAMDAR Global Status, Benefits and Development Plans*
AMDAR Global Status, Benefits and Development Plans* WMO CBS ET Aircraft Based Observations Bryce Ford * Adapted from Presentation at WMO Congress XVII, June 2015 by WMO CBS President, reviewed by WMO
More informationDenver International Airport MDSS Demonstration Verification Report for the Season
Denver International Airport MDSS Demonstration Verification Report for the 2015-2016 Season Prepared by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Research Applications Division (RAL) Seth Linden
More informationCorridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) MIT Lincoln Laboratory. CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05
Corridor Integrated Weather System () Outline Example of Weather Impacting Air traffic Impacts on worst delay day Ways to reduce delay Improve forecasts Aid traffic flow management Aviation Delay Problem
More informationHelen Titley and Rob Neal
Processing ECMWF ENS and MOGREPS-G ensemble forecasts to highlight the probability of severe extra-tropical cyclones: Storm Doris UEF 2017, 12-16 June 2017, ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Helen Titley and Rob Neal
More informationWinter-Weather Forecast Research
Winter-Weather Forecast Research Dr. Jennifer Bewley 23 April 2014 AvMet Applications, Inc. 1800 Alexander Bell Dr., Ste. 130 Reston, 1 VA 20191 Number of Hours with Wintry Precipitation November 2013
More informationMotivation & Goal. We investigate a way to generate PDFs from a single deterministic run
Motivation & Goal Numerical weather prediction is limited by errors in initial conditions, model imperfections, and nonlinearity. Ensembles of an NWP model provide forecast probability density functions
More informationEnsemble Prediction Systems
Ensemble Prediction Systems Eric Blake National Hurricane Center 7 March 2017 Acknowledgements to Michael Brennan 1 Question 1 What are some current advantages of using single-model ensembles? A. Estimates
More informationEric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Eric Snodgrass Co-Founder and Senior Atmospheric Scientist of Agrible, Inc Director of Undergraduate Studies Department of Atmospheric Sciences University Of Illinois Urbana-Champaign snodgrss@illinois.edu
More informationPerformance of the ocean wave ensemble forecast system at NCEP 1
Performance of the ocean wave ensemble forecast system at NCEP 1 Degui Cao 2,3, Hendrik L. Tolman, Hsuan S.Chen, Arun Chawla 2 and Vera M. Gerald NOAA /National Centers for Environmental Prediction Environmental
More informationHurricane Harvey the Name says it all. by Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service office State College, PA
Hurricane Harvey the Name says it all by Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service office State College, PA 16803. 1. Overview Hurricane Harvey crossed the Texas coast (Fig. 1) as a category
More informationWinter Weather Workshop August 2002 Ensemble Forecasting
Winter Weather Workshop August 2002 Ensemble Forecasting Stephen Jascourt, COMET NWP resource at NCEP Stephen.Jascourt@noaa.gov Much of this presentation based on slides prepared by Jun Du (NCEP) and Bill
More informationUniversity of Oklahoma, Norman, OK INTRODUCTION
Preprints, 22th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and 18th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction Amer. Meteor. Soc., Park City, UT, 25-29 June 2007 3B.2 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON THE REAL-TIME STORM-SCALE
More informationToward improved initial conditions for NCAR s real-time convection-allowing ensemble. Ryan Sobash, Glen Romine, Craig Schwartz, and Kate Fossell
Toward improved initial conditions for NCAR s real-time convection-allowing ensemble Ryan Sobash, Glen Romine, Craig Schwartz, and Kate Fossell Storm-scale ensemble design Can an EnKF be used to initialize
More informationSevere Weather with a strong cold front: 2-3 April 2006 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Severe Weather with a strong cold front: 2-3 April 2006 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A strong cold front brought severe weather to much of
More informationRobert Shedd Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Taunton, Massachusetts, USA
Robert Shedd Northeast River Forecast Center National Weather Service Taunton, Massachusetts, USA Outline River Forecast Centers FEWS Implementation Status Forcing Data Ensemble Forecasting The Northeast
More informationHPC Ensemble Uses and Needs
1 HPC Ensemble Uses and Needs David Novak Science and Operations Officer With contributions from Keith Brill, Mike Bodner, Tony Fracasso, Mike Eckert, Dan Petersen, Marty Rausch, Mike Schichtel, Kenneth
More informationThe Use of GPS Radio Occultation Data for Tropical Cyclone Prediction. Bill Kuo and Hui Liu UCAR
The Use of GPS Radio Occultation Data for Tropical Cyclone Prediction Bill Kuo and Hui Liu UCAR Current capability of the National Hurricane Center Good track forecast improvements. Errors cut in half
More informationThe NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance System: Recent Changes and Moving Forward. William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center
AMS Future of the Weather Enterprise 11/27/12 1 N C E P The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance System: Recent Changes and Moving Forward William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center
More informationHistoric Ellicott City Flood of 30 July Introduction
Historic Ellicott City Flood of 30 July 2016 by Richard H. Grumm and Norman W. Junker Satellite Contributions by Sheldon Kusselson National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction Intense
More informationDavid Ruth Meteorological Development Laboratory National Weather Service, NOAA. Measuring Forecast Continuity
David Ruth Meteorological Development Laboratory National Weather Service, NOAA Measuring Forecast Continuity National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Contains a seamless mosaic of NWS digital forecasts
More informationImpact of Targeted Dropsonde Data on Mid-latitude Numerical Weather Forecasts during the 2011 Winter Storms Reconnaissance Program
ESRL Impact of Targeted Dropsonde Data on Mid-latitude Numerical Weather Forecasts during the 2011 Winter Storms Reconnaissance Program Presented by Tom Hamill Forecasts and assimilations : Carla Cardinali,
More informationEnhancing short term wind energy forecasting for improved utility operations: The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)
Enhancing short term wind energy forecasting for improved utility operations: The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) Jim Wilczak NOAA S. Benjamin, I. Djalalova, L. Bianco, S. Calvert, J. Freedman,
More informationDeterministic and Ensemble Storm scale Lightning Data Assimilation
LI Mission Advisory Group & GOES-R Science Team Workshop 27-29 May 2015 Deterministic and Ensemble Storm scale Lightning Data Assimilation Don MacGorman, Ted Mansell (NOAA/National Severe Storms Lab) Alex
More information