Climate Data Record Program Overview

Transcription

1 Climate Data Record Program Overview Hilawe Semunegus CDR Program Scientist NOAA s National Climatic Data Center Asheville, NC Western States Water Council: Hydroclimate Monitoring Systems & Measurement Needs June 24, 2014

2 CDR Program is based on the National Academy of Sciences Report A Climate Data Record (CDR) is a time series of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change It is NOAA s vision that climate records extend from the start of the satellite era far into the future, and are trustworthy measures of climate change and variability CDR Program s mission is to develop and implement a robust, sustainable, and scientifically defensible approach to producing and preserving climate records from satellite data

3 Vegetation Greenness Index Climate Data Records are Unified and Consistent Over Long Periods Uncorrected Data Time Series Contain Both Environmental Information and Satellite-induced Artifacts New satellite launched Operational weather and hazard products are produced rapidly to potentially save life and property Time (year) Climate Data Records (CDRs) provide long term product consistency through rigorous reprocessing with advanced algorithms, ancillary data and evolved instrument understanding.

4 Applicability Individual Non-Science Users For Climate Data Record (CDR) End-Users, Spatial Scale is key Outgoing Longwave Radiation NDVI High-resolution precipitation (NEXRAD. PERSIANN, CMORPH, etc.) Science Community Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Global Top of Atmosphere (TOA) to surface radiative flux Spatial Scale Sea Ice Concentration Local

5 Temporal Scale of Agricultural Sector Stakeholder Interest Farmer Consumer Crop Breeder eservoir Construction Days Months Years < <100 Aid Agency missions Policymaker Regulatory Agency Commodities Trader Biofuel or Processing Plant Construction Elected Official (Re-)Insurance Companies Disaster Relief Development Aid

6 Value: CDRs Inform Decisions Throughout Society Example: Recent collaboration between NOAA, NASA, Academia, Private Sector and NREL Raw Observations Fundamental CDRs (Calibrate Data) Thematic CDRs (Geophysical Data) Climate Information (Derived Goods & Services) NOAA & NASA raw satellite data Merged and corrected NOAA & NASA data provide trustworthy multi-decadal time series Standards of the renewable energy community applied Siting information for major solar energy farms NREL= National Renewable Energy Laboratory

7 Extreme Winters and Natural Gas Prices Courtesy of Dr. Carl Schreck, CICS-NC Midwest-East Temperatures Heating Demand Warm in 2011/12 drove down prices Cold in 2013/14 brought them back up NG Prices

8 CDRs as Climate Indicators Both years were weak La Niñas Usually drives cooler winters Record warm SSTs in Gulf of Alaska associated with enhanced ridging And subsequent downstream troughing over US Tropical convection was shifted farther eastward in 2011/12 Favors a more zonal jet stream and warmer temperatures

9 Energy meteorologists use CDRs to track the MJO and anticipate such events MJO and March 2012 March 2012 was most anomalously warm month since records began in 1895 MJO was in phases 5/6 for most of the month, which favors US heat

10 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) CDR to be Utilized in a Water Sector Application Pilot Project, Columbia River 2012 drought depicted by Vegetation Index CDR (July 17) Potential End-users, Bonneville Power Authority (US DOE) and the International Joint Commission 5 km resolution, wall-to-wall (globally) Historical record from to current To be used with Snow Cover Extent and Precipitation CDRs and in-situ data Primary U.S. corn and soybean region

11 CDRP-BRF-0221 Example: Informed Forest Management Project Goals USDA and NASA are developing a capability to assess forest health using a satellite-derived Vegetation Index Opportunity taken The CDR Program has leveraged NASA and USDA research and transition to operations. Expanding ranges of forest scavengers linked to climate trends Output and Impact Gypsy moth larvae Pine Beetles NCDC has produced a 30+ year times series of Vegetation Index suitable for identifying forest health trends, leading to better forest and resource management. Partners USDA Southern Research Station, NASA and NOAA

12 Applications: Water resources systems planning and management Extreme events analysis (intensity, frequencies, and duration of floods & droughts) Users: PERSIANN CDR Applications: Water Focus Dept. of Water Resources (DWR), State and National Water Agencies USGS, NWS, WMO UNESCO-IHP International partners to validate the products: Taiwan, India, Israel, Italy, Thailand, Namibia

13 NEXRAD Reanalysis: CDR-funded project with NSSL Reprocessing most archived NEXRAD data through NMQ algorithms developed at NSSL Provides gridded precipitation at 0.01 resolution every five minutes Complete record expected (Dual pol or Q3 products will be included at a later time) Future work: further assessment of the quality of the finished product and implementing quality-control measures such as gaugeadjustment and terrain correction

14 Current Initial Operational Capability CDRs and Example Applications Outgoing Longwave Radiation - Direct energy industry sector support - Earth Radiation Budget - Long Term Climate Variability Monitoring Precipitation-PERSIANN - Extreme Event Analysis - Rainfall Runoff Modeling - Watershed resource management Sea Ice Concentration - Arctic Shipping Routes - Dept. of Defense applications - Wildlife Management Sea Surface Temperature-Optimum Interpolation - Typhoon Intensities & Monsoonal Rainfall Prediction - Fisheries Management Sea Surface Temperature-Pathfinder - El Nino/La Nina Prediction - Coral Reef Monitoring

15 Current Initial Operational Capability CDRs and Example Applications - Continued Normalized Difference Vegetation Index - Forestry/Crop Management - Agricultural Yield Forecasting - USAID support Snow Cover Extent (Northern Hemisphere) - Snow Melt Runoff Estimation - Water Resource Management Geostationary IR Channel Brightness Temperature-GridSat B1 - Tropical Convection Monitoring - Surface Temperature & Precipitation Estimation in Data Sparse Areas GPCP (updated monthly) - Global precipitation analyses (monthly, pentad and daily) - Long period of record: 1979-present

16 Program Support Budget Profile FY 2010 Enacted FY 2011 Enacted FY 2012 Enacted FY 2013 Enacted FY 2014 Enacted FY 2015 (Pres Bud Request) $9.9M $10.4M $10.1M $8.3M $8.9M $0* Operations, Research and Facilities (ORF) National Environmental Information Office (NEIO) (New PPA) FY 2015 Budget Request ($M) 69.1 * The CDR Program is not shown as a distinct program in the FY15 newly proposed National Environmental Information Office (NEIO; formerly NCDC, NODC and NGDC). See NESDIS s FY15 President s Budget for more details.