Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Services In NWS Operations. David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center

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1 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Services In NWS Operations David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center 1

2 Outline CPC Mission and Focus Major Thrust Areas: Short-Term Climate Prediction Climate Monitoring Climate Diagnostics Decision Support Services (DSS) for Core Partners: NWS Paradigm USDA NIDIS Example of DSS in support of agriculture Weather Bill: Once in a generation opportunity Report to Congress: Opportunity for stakeholders to provide input NOAA goals in support of Weather Bill CPC Product Improvement and Service Evolution Research in Climate Testbed to improve S2S prediction Summary 2

3 CPC Mission Deliver real-time products and information that predict and describe climate variations on timescales from weeks to year(s) thereby promoting effective management of climate risk and a climate-resilient society. Focus: Weeks, months, seasons, out to 1 year Strong alignment with the Subseasonal to Seasonal mandate contained in the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017, Section 201. CPC products used by different sectors/stakeholders depend on skill-level of product and risk threshold/tolerance of stakeholder for particular decision making contexts. Temperature Outlook

4 CPC Prediction Activities Temperature and precipitation outlooks: Week Two to Seasonal U.S. and Global Tropics hazards outlooks Monthly and seasonal drought outlooks Seasonal hurricane outlooks Monthly ENSO prediction Week Two Hazard Outlooks Focus on week-2 to seasonal-toannual

5 CPC Monitoring Activities Compilation of data on historical and current atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice conditions on timescales from daily to seasonal. Informs our understanding of recent variability and forecasts. Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere) Blocking Monsoons Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal) Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and U.S.) Drought (U.S., North America) Climate Reanalysis

6 Climate Diagnostic Activities Synthesis of current weather and climate information and forecasts. Allows us to understand the forcing mechanisms of recent short-term climate variations and place them in a historical context. Climate Diagnostics Bulletin ENSO Diagnostics Discussion Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates Seasonal Climate Summaries Special Climate Diagnoses BAMS Annual Climate Assessment Report (contributor)

7 Decision Support Services for USDA Joint Agriculture Weather Facility (JAWF) Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin: Used by USDA to assess likely impacts on domestic and international crop production and commodity prices due to short-term climate variability. Customers for JAWF Products: Farmers, ranchers, agriculture industry, food industry, commodity analysts, Congress, DHS, DoD, and State Department. Climate Hubs: Use CPC prediction and monitoring products to deliver science-based, region-specific information in agricultural contexts.

8 Decision Support Services for NIDIS and Water Resource Managers Support for National Integrated Drought Information Systems (NIDIS): Weekly Drought Monitor CPC provides 3 of the 11 authors for the multi-agency collaboration CPC provides numerous monitoring and prediction tools in support of the Drought Monitor Monthly and Seasonal Drought Outlook CPC Drought Outlooks are tightly coordinated with NIDIS and Drought Outlook partners Providing short-term climate prediction products in support of federal, state and local water resource managers* (WSWC, CDWR, USBR, UCACE, TBWA)

9 Example of Decision Support Services for Agricultural Sector: Major Cold and Wet Spring Event: Potential Impacts in the North Central U.S. April 26-May 9, 2017 Prepared By: Barb Mayes Boustead, Ph.D. Meteorologist and Climatologist, National Weather Service Dr. Dennis Todey Director USDA Midwest Climate Hub In Partnership With: Doug Kluck (NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information), Dannele Peck (USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub), Crystal Stiles (High Plains Regional Climate Center), Mike Timlin (Midwestern Regional Climate Center), Ray Wolf (National Weather Service) Building a Climate-Smart Nation

10 8- to 14-Day Temperature Outlook: May 3-9, 2017 Odds favor below-normal temperatures Odds slightly favor much below-normal temperatures Highest chances in the western Great Lakes to upper Midwest Building a Climate-Smart Nation

11 8- to 14-Day Precipitation Outlook: May 3-9, 2017 Odds favor abovenormal precipitation Highest chances in the Great Lakes to Mississippi River valley Thus cold and wet conditions remain possible through the next 2 weeks Building a Climate-Smart Nation

12 Weather Bill S2S: Reporting Requirements By end of October 2018, NOAA shall submit to a report including: 1. An analysis of how NOAA s S2S forecasts are used for public planning and preparedness, 2. NOAA s specific plans and goals for the continued improvement of an S2S forecasting capability, including products to meet the need described in 1., and 3. An identification of the needed research, monitoring, observing and forecasting requirements for number 2. The Undersecretary of NOAA shall consult with relevant Federal, regional, State, tribal, local government agencies, research institutions, and the private sector in the development of this report. Public review and comment of draft report via Federal Register Targeting mid - June, 2018 This opportunity will be announced here: (updated daily) DGD will ensure that stakeholders are notified when it will appear.

13 NOAA Goals and Objectives to Meet Weather Bill Mandate Four major goals and objectives identified: 1. Advance Prediction Skill: Reduction in number of negative skill events Improved impact analyses 2. Expand Information Content of Forecasts: Better probabilistic/uncertainty info and risk communication ** New products for specific types of extreme weather events ** 3. Expanded Service Capacity: **New/tailored products for existing and new customers: including support for National Security Needs** 4. Improved Scientific and Technical Capabilities: Improved understanding, modeling, post-processing of physical processes Diagnosing and exploiting new sources of predictability

14 Climate Test Bed (CTB): Exploratory Projects _ Probabilistic Monthly/Seasonal Drought SubX Experiment Outlook - Excessive Heat Warnings on Week 2-4 Timescales - Week Two Fire Weather Forecast Tools - Weekly Updates of Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks - Week 2-4 Arctic Sea Ice Outlook - Updated Global Model Being Developed as Community Model to leverage talent across the enterprise. - SubX: Evaluation of potential for community models to improve operational week two to four precipitation and temperature outlooks.

15 CPC GPRA: Running 48 Month Mean Two Meter Temperature CFSV1 Consolidation CFSV2 NMME Record High Scores for Seasonal Temperature Outlooks!

16 New Prediction Products for Week 3-4 Timescale Mean 43.5 Mean: 12.2 CPC began issuing experimental week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks in The temperature outlooks were made operational given skill level, while the precipitation outlooks remain experimental given skill level, i.e. low-level of predictability given current state of the science.

17 Forecast September sea ice concentration from March Initial Conditions CFSv2/CFSR CFSv2p/PIOMAS NASA Bootstrap Stakeholder requests for sea-ice forecasts for mineral extraction, tourism, national security, and environmental stewardship. 17

18 Grand Challenge: Improving S2S Precipitation Forecasts To Inform Decisions in Water Resources, Agriculture, Drought Mitigation, and Wild-Fire Response Rice Ridge Fire, Montana Oroville Dam Flash Drought 18

19 Thoughts on Evolving CPC Product Suite Evolve the product suite in 3 ways: Collaborate with social scientists to evolve static maps in order to better meet stakeholder needs Static maps don t meet stakeholder needs in many contexts. Provide user-friendly tools that allow stakeholders to tailor official outlook and monitoring information to their own needs/risk profile* For core partners, provide access to more of the tools used by forecasters. All tools we use have cross-validated skill assessments on extensive set of hindcasts. Users need to know strengths/weaknesses of tools they might use. 19

20 Supplemental Tools to Static Maps: Tools give users access to more complete information regarding possible outcomes than available through static maps Interactive display of 3-category tercile Information User-Friendly POE Tool allows users to tailor forecast to their own needs/risk profile

21 Closing Thoughts/Way Forward Improved S2S precipitation forecasts will require improved skill from dynamical and statistical models. Two stream approach to providing improved support to improve precipitation forecast for water resource managers, drought planning, agriculture, and wildfire mitigation: Do what you can, with what you have, where you are (Teddy Roosevelt) We need to explore/exploit use of currently skillful week two precipitation forecasts for various water resource applications. CPC will be exploring these in next year or so. Still seeking out interested operational organizations to test utility of week two forecasts/tools. Improvise, overcome, adapt (Clint Eastwood) Need to focus on reduction/improvement of systematic errors in S2S Tropical SST and precipitation forecasts. Need to do deep-dive diagnostics to understand what led to limited predictive skill for period and use that information to improve models. Need to continue to investigate new sources of S2S predictability.

22 Summary CPC is the civilian operational sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction capability. NWS is working to improve forecast skill of foundational numerical guidance through NGGPS and other programs through higherresolution, improved physics, and better initialization. Grand Challenge for S2S Community: Improving S2S precipitation forecasts to enable more effective decision support services for water resources, agriculture, drought, and wildfire mitigation. CPC is interested in working with government stakeholders to better understand your needs as we develop our decision support services portfolio. Please contact me if you want to discuss further: 22

23 But what was the skill of the models that the forecasters had available? Comparison of Week-2 and One-Month CPC Official Precipitation Forecast Skill for JFM 2016 and 2017 Dramatic Decrease in Skill from Week 2 Compared to One Month Week-2: 2016 Week-2: 2017 Month 1: 2016 Month 1: 2017

24 State of the art NMME first season precipitation forecasts for winters of were consistently of wrong sign over California and most of the west. Forecasters add value to model forecasts but it is hard to overcome really bad model forecasts. NMME Precipitation Forecast One Month Lead for Jan.-Feb.-Mar. (JFM) NMME 2015 NMME 2016 NMME 2017 Obs Obs Obs. 2017