METinfo Verification of Operational Weather Prediction Models September to November 2016 Mariken Homleid and Frank Thomas Tveter

Transcription

1 METinfo No. /6 ISSN 89-79X Meteorology Verification of Operational Weather Prediction Models September to November 6 Mariken Homleid and Frank Thomas Tveter Photo: Jan Erik Haugen

2 Contents Introduction Models Postprocessedforecasts TheHARMONIE system Verification measures Observations Mean Sea Level Pressure figures Statisticsbylead time Monthlysummarystatisticsthelastthreeyears Temperature m figures Statisticsbylead time Monthlymeanerrorthe lastthreeyears Monthlystandarddeviation oferrorthe lastthreeyears Monthlymeanabsoluteerrorthe lastthreeyears Mapsfor eachregion Timeseriesfor selectedstations Post processed temperature m figures Statisticsbylead time Long term ECMWF temperature m figures Statisticsbylead time Wind speed m figures Statisticssummarizedover Norwegianstations Statisticssummarizedover Svalbardstations Statisticssummarizedover northnowegian stations Monthlymeanerrorthe lastthreeyears Monthlystandarddeviation oferrorthe lastthreeyears Monthlymeanabsoluteerrorthe lastthreeyears Mapsfor eachregion Timeseriesfor selectedstations Post processed maximum mean wind speed m figures Statisticsbylead time Statisticsforcategorisedevents

3 Wind gust figures Statisticsbylead time Statisticsforcategorisedevents Long term ECMWF wind speed m figures Statisticsbylead time Precipitation figures Statisticsbylead time(rr) Statisticsforcategorisedevents (RR) Monthlymeanerrorthe lastthreeyears (RR) Monthlystandarddeviation oferrorthe lastthreeyears (RR) Monthlymeanabsoluteerrorthe lastthreeyears (RR) Mapsfor eachregion(rr) Timeseriesfor selectedstations(rr) More information... Verification results are also available on internal web pages AROME-MetCoOp verification- 7 and 3 last days - timeseries and windroses- on Google map 3

4 Models The following models are verified in this report. ECMWF AROME-Norway AROME-MetCoOp (AM) AROME-Arctic (AA) MetCoOp ensemble system (MEPSmbr) Global model (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. From 6 January horizontal resolution approximately 6 6 km. From 8 March 6 cycle r with horizontal resolution about 9km. ECMWF is available about hours laterthan models runat MET. HARMONIE cycle 37h. with AROME physics and nonhydrostatic dynamics, horizontal resolution defined by a.. km grid. Experimental since October, replacing Harmonie. from 6 February 3, on Yr from October 3. HARMONIE with AROME physics, horizontal resolution defined by a.. km grid on same domain as AROME- Norway. Run in cooperation with Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). Experimental with cycle 38h. since 9 December 3, operational since March, cycle 38h. since 8 December. HARMONIE with AROME physics, horizontal resolution defined by a.. km grid, same domain size as AROME- MetCoOp. Experimental with cycle 38h. since October. MEPS has ensemble members, only member, the control, is verified in this report. MEPS is based on HARMONIE cycle h. with AROME physics and non-hydrostatic dynamics, horizontal resolution defined by a.. km grid. Experimental since May 6. Operational status since 8 November 6. Analysis and lead times of forecasts are denoted by e.g. +3 UTC which indicates forecast generated atutcand valid3hourslater. Post processed forecasts Mostof therawmodeldataarepostprocessedbeforebeingpublished on Yr. For m temperature, the raw data is first adjusted to a fine scale ( m) topography applying a vertical temperature gradient of -.6 degrees pr. m. The height corrected m temperature forecasts (AMHC) are in a next step adapted to observations by a Kalman filter at all observing stations. The Kalman filter corrections are interpolated horizontally to the m grid by kriging, using weights which decrease with increasing distance from the observing stations, both horizontally and vertically. The interpolated Kalman filter corrections are finally added to the heigth corrected field, giving AMKF. m wind speed is statistically post processed to represent maximum wind speed m last hour, and called AMPP.

5 The precipitation forecasts are post processed by a neighbourhood method giving a median field, AMmedian. This field is used to determine the precipitation symbol on Yr. ECMWF provides probabilistic forecasts based on a member ensemble system at 3 km resolution. Consensus forecasts(ecens) are calibrated (ECensPP) before being presented on Yr. The HARMONIE system HARMONIE is the acronym for HIRLAM s meso-scale forecast system(hirlam Aladin Regional/Mesoscale Operational NWP In Europe). The HARMONIE system includes several configuration options. This section presents some of the main components and setups that are used at MET. More documentation is available on and A change log for AROME- MetCoOp is found on ALARO- physics ALARO- has physical parameterizations targeted for grey scale resolutions( - km). It is a spin-off of the Météo-France physical parameterizations used in the globale ARPEGE, but with a separate radiation scheme, 3MT micro-physical frame work, and the Toucans turbulence scheme. Much of the development has been done by the RC LACE (Regional Cooperation for Limited Area modeling in Central Europe) community. AROME physics AROME(Applications of Research to Operations at MEsoscale) is targeted for horizontal resolution. km or finer. It uses physical parameterizations based on the French academia model Meso-NH and the external surface model SURFEX. AROME has been operational at Météo-France since 8 December 8, with a horizontal resolution of. km. SURFEX as surface model SURFEX (Surface externalisée) is developed at Météo-France and academia for offline experiments and introduced in NWP models to ensure consistent treatment of processes related to surface. Météo- France is already using SURFEX for some of their configurations and is planning to use it for all their configurations. Surface modelling and assimilation will benefit from the possibility of running offline experiments. SURFEX is also used for offline applications in e.g. hydrology, vegetation monitoring and snow avalanche forecasts. SURFEX includes routines to simulate the exchange of energy and water between the atmosphere and surface types (tiles); land, sea (ocean), lake (inland water) and town. The land or nature tile can be divided further into vegetation types (patches). ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) is used for modelling the land surface processes. There are 3 ISBA options; - and 3-layer force restore and a diffusive approach, where the first one is used in HIRLAM. Towns may be treated by a separate TEB (Town Energy Balance) module. Seas and lakes are also treated separately. The lake model, FLAKE (Freshwater LAKE), has recently been introduced in SURFEX. A global ECOCLIMAP database which combines land cover maps and satellite information gives information about surface properties. The orography is taken from gtopo3.

6 SURFEX Scientific Documentation and User s Guide are available on Data assimilation NWP models are updated regularly using observations received in real-time from the global observing system. AROME-MetCoOpis updatedeach thirdhour;at,3,6,9,,,8andutc. Surface analysis Surface analysis is performed by CANARI (Code d Analyse Nécessaire à ARPEGE pour ses Rejets et son Initialisation) (Taillefer, ). The analysis method is Optimal Interpolation and only conventional synoptic observations are used. meter temperature and relative humidity observations are used to update the surface and soil temperature and moisture. The snow analysis is also performed with CANARI in analogy with the HIRLAM snow analysis. Snow depth observations are used to update Snow Water Equivalent. The snow fields are analysed only at 6 and8utc asthereareveryfewsnowdepth observationsat,3,9,, and. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) is not analysed, but taken from the boundaries. ECMWF uses the OSTIA (Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis) product, including SST from UK Met Office and SIC from MET. SST and SIC for the Baltic Sea have since6november been takenfromthe oceanmodel HIROMBrunat SMHI. The surface temperature over sea ice was taken from the boundary model and remained unchanged through the forecast. A simple thermodynamical sea ice scheme (SICE) giving prognostic sea ice temperatures in fixed layers was introduced 6 November. Upper air analysis AROME-MetCoOp runs three dimensional variational (3D VAR) data assimilation using conventional observations from synop stations, ships, radiosondes and aircrafts and AMSU-A and AMSU-B/MHS data from polar orbiting NOAA and METOP satellites. GNSS were introduced 7 February, radar reflectivities 6 June and IASI data 6 November. Boundary fields AROME-MetCoOp gets its boundary values (-hourly) from the ECMWF model at approximately 6 km resolution, and has currently 6 vertical levels. None of the HARMONIE configurations at MET have applied digital filter initialization (DFI). 6

7 Verification measures All model forecasts in this report are verified against observations by interpolating(linear) the grid based forecasts to the observational sites. As a consequence, it should be noted that it is the models abilities to forecast the observations that is being quantifed and assessed. Thus, there is no attempt in this report to verify area averaged precipitation for example. Verification is carried out both for raw and categorized forecasts. In the following, let f,..., f n denote theforecastsando,...,o n thecorrespondingobservations. Forecasts of continuous variables The verification statistics applied to continuous variables are defined in the table below Statistic Acronym Formula Range Optimal score Mean Error Mean Absolute Error ME MAE Standard Deviation of Error SDE Root Mean Square Error Correlation RMSE COR ( n n n i= (f i o i ) to n n i= f i o i to n i= ( n (f i o i ME) ) / n i= In the formula for COR the following definitions are used (f i o i ) ) / n n i= (f i f)(o i ō) SD(f)SD(o) to to to f = n n i= f i, ō = n n o i i= SD(f) = ( n n i= (f i f) ) / (, SD(o) = n for the means and standard deviations of the forecasts and observations. n i= (o i ō) ) / 7

8 Forecasts of categorical variables All variables in this report are continuous in raw form, but it is possible to categorize them and verify these. For example, wind speed above a given threshold could be of interest which would result in two possible outcomes (yes and no). The verification is then completely summarized by a contingency table as theone shownbelow event observed yes no event forecasted yes a b no c d Verification statistics for such forecasts are listed in the following table Statistic Acronym Formula Range Optimal score Hit rate HR a a+c to False alarm rate F b b+d to False alarm ratio FAR b a+b to Equitable threat score ETS a ar a+b+c ar /3to (=noskill) Hanssen-Kuipers skill score KSS HR - F to ( = no skill) Heidke skill score HSS (a+d)/n ssf ssf to (=noskill) Intheformulafor ETSar=(a+b)(a+c)/n. Intheformulafor HSSthescoreforthestandardforecastssf =[(a+b)(a+c)+(b+d)(c+d)]/n. Observations All observations come from Klimadatavarehuset at MET. Only synop stations are used. The model wind speed is verified against mean wind observations, FF. The post processed wind speed is intended to represent maximum wind speed m last hour, and is verified against FX. 8

9 Sep to Nov 6 Mean Sea Level Pressure. Mean Error 6 Nor. stations +3,+6,...,+66 AM ECMWF 3. Standard Deviation of Error 6 Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error 6 Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Error Svalbard stations +3,+6,...,+66 AA ECMWF 3. Standard Deviation of Error Svalbard stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error Svalbard stations +3,+6,..., Mean Error 3 North Scand. stations +3,+6,...,+66 AA AM ECMWF 3. Standard Deviation of Error 3 North Scand. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error 3 North Scand. stations +3,+6,...,

10 Sep to Nov 6 Mean Sea Level Pressure Mean Absolute Error Norwegian stations +,+3,+36,+ UTC. ECMWF AROME_Norway AM MEPSmbr..... Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Standard Deviation of Error Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6. Mean Error Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6

11 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m Mean Error Nor. stations +3,+6,...,+66 AM ECMWF 3. Standard Deviation of Error Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Error Svalbard stations +3,+6,...,+66 AA ECMWF 3. Standard Deviation of Error Svalbard stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error Svalbard stations +3,+6,..., Mean Error 7 North Scand. stations +3,+6,...,+66 AA AM ECMWF 3. Standard Deviation of Error 7 North Scand. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error 7 North Scand. stations +3,+6,...,

12 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m Mean Error 6 Norwegian stations +,+3,+36,+ UTC ECMWF AROME_Norway AM MEPSmbr 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian coastal stations 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian inland stations 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6

13 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m Standard Deviation of Error 6 Norwegian stations ECMWF AROME_Norway AM MEPSmbr +,+3,+36,+ UTC 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian coastal stations 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian inland stations 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 3

14 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m Mean Absolute Error 6 Norwegian stations +,+3,+36,+ UTC ECMWF AROME_Norway AM MEPSmbr 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian coastal stations 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian inland stations 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6

15 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

16 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

17 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

18 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

19 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

20 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

21 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

22 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

23 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

24 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

25 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

26 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m AM + SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

27 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m SVALBARD LUFTHAVN Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AA: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

28 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m BJØRNØYA Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AA: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

29 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m TROMSØ Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, AA: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop AA synop ECMWF synop

30 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m KAUTOKEINO Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, AA: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop AA synop ECMWF synop

31 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m ØRLAND III Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

32 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m BERGEN FLORIDA Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

33 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m FINSEVATN Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

34 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m NESBYEN TODOKK Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

35 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m EKOFISK Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

36 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m SOLA Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

37 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m FÆRDER FYR Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

38 Sep to Nov 6 Temperature m OSLO BLINDERN Celsius Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct Celsius Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Celsius Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

39 Sep to Nov 6 Post processed temperature m (AMHC and AMKF). Mean Error 6 Nor. stations +3,+6,...,+66 AM AMHC AMKF 3. Standard Deviation of Error 6 Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error 6 Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Error Nor. coastal stations +3,+6,...,+66 AM AMHC AMKF 3. Standard Deviation of Error Nor. coastal stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error Nor. coastal stations +3,+6,..., Mean Error 8 Nor. inland stations +3,+6,...,+66 AM AMHC AMKF 3. Standard Deviation of Error 8 Nor. inland stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error 8 Nor. inland stations +3,+6,...,

40 Sep to Nov 6 Long term ECMWF temperature m Mean Error 66 Norwegian stations ECMWF ECens ECensPP coastal stations inland stations

41 Sep to Nov 6 Long term ECMWF temperature m Standard Deviation of Error ECMWF ECens ECensPP 66 Norwegian stations coastal stations inland stations

42 Sep to Nov 6 Long term ECMWF temperature m Mean Absolute Error ECMWF ECens ECensPP 66 Norwegian stations coastal stations inland stations

43 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m. Mean Error 9 Nor. stations +3,+6,...,+66 AM ECMWF 3. Standard Deviation of Error 9 Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error 9 Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Hit Rate 3 Nor. stations +8,+,+3,+36 AM ECMWF. False Alarm Rate +8,+,+3,+36. False Alarm Ratio +8,+,+3, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s). Equitable Threat Score 3 Nor. stations +8,+,+3,+36 AM ECMWF. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score +8,+,+3,+36. Heidke Skill Score +8,+,+3, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) 3

44 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m. Mean Error Svalbard stations +3,+6,...,+66 AA ECMWF 3. Standard Deviation of Error Svalbard stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error Svalbard stations +3,+6,..., Hit Rate Svalbard stations +8,+,+3,+36 AA ECMWF. False Alarm Rate +8,+,+3,+36. False Alarm Ratio +8,+,+3, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s). Equitable Threat Score Svalbard stations +8,+,+3,+36 AA ECMWF. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score +8,+,+3,+36. Heidke Skill Score +8,+,+3, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s)

45 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m. Mean Error 63 North Scand. stations +3,+6,...,+66 AA AM ECMWF 3. Standard Deviation of Error 63 North Scand. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error 63 North Scand. stations +3,+6,..., Hit Rate 9 North Scand. stations +8,+,+3,+36 AA AM ECMWF. False Alarm Rate +8,+,+3,+36. False Alarm Ratio +8,+,+3, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s). Equitable Threat Score 9 North Scand. stations +8,+,+3,+36 AA AM ECMWF. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score +8,+,+3,+36. Heidke Skill Score +8,+,+3, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s)

46 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m Mean Error 9 Norwegian stations ECMWF AROME_Norway AM MEPSmbr +,+3,+36,+ UTC 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian coastal stations 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian mountainous stations 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 6

47 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m Standard Deviation of Error 9 Norwegian stations +,+3,+36,+ UTC ECMWF AROME_Norway AM MEPSmbr Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian coastal stations Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian mountainous stations Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 7

48 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m Mean Absolute Error 9 Norwegian stations +,+3,+36,+ UTC ECMWF AROME_Norway AM MEPSmbr 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian coastal stations 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 Norwegian mountainous stations 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 8

49 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m AM + ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

50 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m AM + SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

51 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m AM + ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

52 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m AM + SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

53 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m AM + ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

54 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m AM + SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

55 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m SVALBARD LUFTHAVN m/s Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AA: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

56 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m BJØRNØYA m/s Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AA: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

57 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m TROMSØ m/s 8 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s 8 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s 8 6 Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, AA: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop AA synop ECMWF synop

58 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m SLETTNES FYR m/s Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, AA: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop AA synop ECMWF synop

59 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m ØRLAND III m/s Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

60 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m YTTERØYANE FYR m/s Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

61 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m FINSEVATN m/s Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

62 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m NESBYEN TODOKK m/s Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

63 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m EKOFISK m/s Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

64 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m SOLA m/s 8 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s 8 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s 8 6 Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

65 Sep to Nov 6 Wind speed m FÆRDER FYR m/s Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct m/s Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct m/s Oct 3 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Min Mean Max Std N synop:,6,, AM: +8,+,+3, ECMWF: +8,+,+3, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

66 Sep to Nov 6 Post processed maximum mean wind speed m (AMPP). Mean Error Nor. stations +3,+6,...,+66 AM AMPP 3. Standard Deviation of Error Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Mean Absolute Error Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Hit Rate 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+3,+36 AM AMPP. False Alarm Rate 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+3,+36. False Alarm Ratio 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+3, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s). Equitable Threat Score 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+3,+36 AM AMPP. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+3,+36. Heidke Skill Score 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+3, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) 66

67 Sep to Nov 6 Wind gust (AM FG) and AM 9 Mean Error 3 Nor. stations +3,+6,...,+66 AM_FG AM_9 Standard Deviation of Error 3 Nor. stations +3,+6,...,+66 Mean Absolute Error 3 Nor. stations +3,+6,..., Hit Rate Nor. stations +8,+,+3,+36 AMFG AM9. False Alarm Rate Nor. stations +8,+,+3,+36. False Alarm Ratio Nor. stations +8,+,+3, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s). Equitable Threat Score Nor. stations +8,+,+3,+36 AMFG AM9. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score Nor. stations +8,+,+3,+36. Heidke Skill Score Nor. stations +8,+,+3, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) 67

68 Sep to Nov 6 Long term ECMWF wind speed m Mean Error ECMWF ECens ECensPP 8 Norwegian stations coastal stations mountainous stations

69 Sep to Nov 6 Long term ECMWF wind speed m Standard Deviation of Error ECMWF ECens ECensPP 8 Norwegian stations coastal stations mountainous stations

70 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation Mean Absolute Error. ECMWF ECens ECensPP 8 Norwegian stations coastal stations mountainous stations

71 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation. Mean Error 6 Nor. stations +8,+3,...,+66 AM ECMWF. Standard Deviation of Error 6 Nor. stations +8,+3,...,+66. Mean Absolute Error 6 Nor. stations +8,+3,..., Hit Rate 9 Nor. stations +8,+3,+,+,+66 AM ECMWF. False Alarm Rate 9 Nor. stations +8,+3,+,+,+66. False Alarm Ratio 9 Nor. stations +8,+3,+,+, Exceedance threshold (mm) Exceedance threshold (mm) Exceedance threshold (mm). Equitable Threat Score 9 Nor. stations +8,+3,+,+,+66 AM ECMWF. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score 9 Nor. stations +8,+3,+,+,+66. Heidke Skill Score 9 Nor. stations +8,+3,+,+, Exceedance threshold (mm) Exceedance threshold (mm) Exceedance threshold (mm) 7

72 Sep to Nov 6 Daily precipitation Mean Error 8 Norwegian stations ECMWF AROME_Norway AM MEPSmbr +3 UTC Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 coastal stations Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 37 stations more than m above sea level Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 stations with daily mean precipitation > mm Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 7

73 Sep to Nov 6 Daily precipitation Standard Deviation of Error 8 8 Norwegian stations ECMWF AROME_Norway AM MEPSmbr +3 UTC 6 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 coastal stations 8 6 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 37 stations more than m above sea level 8 6 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 stations with daily mean precipitation > mm 8 6 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 73

74 Sep to Nov 6 Daily precipitation Mean Absolute Error Norwegian stations ECMWF AROME_Norway AM MEPSmbr +3 UTC Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 7 coastal stations 6 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep stations more than m above sea level 6 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 7 stations with daily mean precipitation > mm 6 3 Sep3 Dec3 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar6 Jun6 Sep6 7

75 Sep to Nov 6 Daily precipitation AM +3 ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

76 Sep to Nov 6 Daily precipitation AM +3 SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

77 Sep to Nov 6 Daily precipitation AM +3 ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

78 Sep to Nov 6 Daily precipitation AM +3 SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

79 Sep to Nov 6 Daily precipitation AM +3 ME at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

80 Sep to Nov 6 Daily precipitation AM +3 SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) forecast means

81 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation SVALBARD LUFTHAVN mm Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct mm Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct mm Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 3 Min Mean Max Std N synop: 6, AA: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

82 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation BJØRNØYA mm 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct mm 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct mm 6 Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 3 Min Mean Max Std N synop: 6, AA: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

83 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation TROMSØ mm Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct mm Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct mm Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 3 Min Mean Max Std N synop: 6, AM: +8, AA: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop AA synop ECMWF synop

84 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation BODØ VI mm Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct mm Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct mm Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 3 Min Mean Max Std N synop: 6, AM: +8, AA: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop AA synop ECMWF synop

85 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation ØRLAND III mm Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct mm Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct mm Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 3 Min Mean Max Std N synop: 6, AM: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

86 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation BERGEN FLORIDA mm Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct mm Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct mm Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 3 Min Mean Max Std N synop: 6, AM: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

87 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation LÆRDAL IV mm Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct mm Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct mm Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 3 Min Mean Max Std N synop: 6, AM: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

88 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation GARDERMOEN mm Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct mm Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct mm Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 3 Min Mean Max Std N synop: 6, AM: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop

89 Sep to Nov 6 hour precipitation NELAUG mm Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Sep Sep 6 Oct mm Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct Oct 6 Oct mm Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov 3 Min Mean Max Std N synop: 6, AM: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AM synop ECMWF synop