METinfo Verification of Operational Weather Prediction Models June to August 2017 Mariken Homleid and Frank Thomas Tveter

Transcription

1 METinfo No. /7 ISSN 89-79X Meteorology Verification of Operational Weather Prediction Models June to August 7 Mariken Homleid and Frank Thomas Tveter

2 Contents Introduction Models Post processed forecasts The HARMONIE system Verification measures Observations Mean Sea Level Pressure figures Statistics by lead time Monthly summary statistics the last three years Temperature m figures Statistics by lead time Monthly mean error the last three years Monthly standard deviation of error the last three years Monthly mean absolute error the last three years Maps for each region Time series for selected stations Post processed temperature m figures Statistics by lead time Long term ECMWF temperature m figures Statistics by lead time Wind speed m figures Statistics summarized over Norwegian stations Statistics summarized over Svalbard stations Statistics summarized over north Nowegian stations Monthly mean error the last three years Monthly standard deviation of error the last three years Monthly mean absolute error the last three years Maps for each region Time series for selected stations Post processed maximum mean wind speed m figures Statistics by lead time Statistics for categorised events

3 Wind gust figures Statistics by lead time Statistics for categorised events Long term ECMWF wind speed m figures Statistics by lead time Precipitation figures Statistics by lead time (RR) Statistics for categorised events (RR) Monthly mean error the last three years (RR) Monthly standard deviation of error the last three years (RR) Monthly mean absolute error the last three years (RR) Maps for each region (RR) Time series for selected stations (RR) More information... Verification results are also available on internal web pages - MetCoOp Web Tools - including verification and observation monitoring - timeseries and windroses - on Google map

4 Models The following models are verified in this report. ECMWF AROME-MetCoOp (AM) AROME-Arctic (AA) MetCoOp ensemble system (MEPSctrl) Global model (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. From January horizontal resolution approximately km. From 8 March cycle r with horizontal resolution about 9km. ECMWF is available about hours later than models run at MET. HARMONIE with AROME physics, horizontal resolution defined by a.. km grid on same domain as AROME- Norway. Run in cooperation with Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). Experimental with cycle 8h. from 9 December, operational from March to 8 November, cycle 8h. from 8 December. HARMONIE with AROME physics, horizontal resolution defined by a.. km grid, same domain size as AROME- MetCoOp. Experimental with cycle 8h. from October, on Yr from December, cycle h. since 9 June 7. MEPS has ensemble members, only member, the control, is verified in this report. MEPS is based on HARMONIE cycle h. with AROME physics and non-hydrostatic dynamics, horizontal resolution defined by a.. km grid. Experimental since May. Operational status since 8 November. Analysis and lead times of forecasts are denoted by e.g. + UTC which indicates forecast generated at UTC and valid hours later. Post processed forecasts Most of the raw model data are post processed before being published on Yr. For m temperature, the raw data is first adjusted to a fine scale ( m) topography applying a vertical temperature gradient of -. degrees pr. m. The height corrected m temperature forecasts (PPHC) are in a next step adapted to observations by a Kalman filter at all observing stations. The Kalman filter corrections are interpolated horizontally to the m grid by kriging, using weights which decrease with increasing distance from the observing stations, both horizontally and vertically. The interpolated Kalman filter corrections are finally added to the heigth corrected field, giving PPKF. m wind speed is statistically post processed to represent maximum wind speed m last hour, and called PP. The precipitation forecasts are post processed by a neighbourhood method giving a median field. This field is used to determine the precipitation symbol on Yr.

5 ECMWF provides probabilistic forecasts based on a member ensemble system at km resolution. Consensus forecasts (ECens) are calibrated (ECensPP) before being presented on Yr. The HARMONIE system HARMONIE is the acronym for HIRLAM s meso-scale forecast system (Hirlam Aladin Regional/Mesoscale Operational NWP In Europe). The HARMONIE system includes several configuration options. This section presents some of the main components and setups that are used at MET. More documentation is available on and A change log for HAR- MONIE AROME is found on ALARO- physics ALARO- has physical parameterizations targeted for grey scale resolutions ( - km). It is a spin-off of the Météo-France physical parameterizations used in the globale ARPEGE, but with a separate radiation scheme, MT micro-physical frame work, and the Toucans turbulence scheme. Much of the development has been done by the RC LACE (Regional Cooperation for Limited Area modeling in Central Europe) community. AROME physics AROME (Applications of Research to Operations at MEsoscale) is targeted for horizontal resolution. km or finer. It uses physical parameterizations based on the French academia model Meso-NH and the external surface model SURFEX. AROME has been operational at Météo-France since 8 December 8, with a horizontal resolution of. km. SURFEX as surface model SURFEX (Surface externalisée) is developed at Météo-France and academia for offline experiments and introduced in NWP models to ensure consistent treatment of processes related to surface. Météo- France is already using SURFEX for some of their configurations and is planning to use it for all their configurations. Surface modelling and assimilation will benefit from the possibility of running offline experiments. SURFEX is also used for offline applications in e.g. hydrology, vegetation monitoring and snow avalanche forecasts. SURFEX includes routines to simulate the exchange of energy and water between the atmosphere and surface types (tiles); land, sea (ocean), lake (inland water) and town. The land or nature tile can be divided further into vegetation types (patches). ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and Atmosphere) is used for modelling the land surface processes. There are ISBA options; - and -layer force restore and a diffusive approach, where the first one is used in HIRLAM. Towns may be treated by a separate TEB (Town Energy Balance) module. Seas and lakes are also treated separately. The lake model, FLAKE (Freshwater LAKE), has recently been introduced in SURFEX. A global ECOCLIMAP database which combines land cover maps and satellite information gives information about surface properties. The orography is taken from gtopo. SURFEX Scientific Documentation and User s Guide are available on

6 Data assimilation NWP models are updated regularly using observations received in real-time from the global observing system. MEPS is updated each third hour; at,,, 9,,, 8 and UTC. Surface analysis Surface analysis is performed by CANARI (Code d Analyse Nécessaire à ARPEGE pour ses Rejets et son Initialisation) (Taillefer, ). The analysis method is Optimal Interpolation and only conventional synoptic observations are used. meter temperature and relative humidity observations are used to update the surface and soil temperature and moisture. The snow analysis is also performed with CANARI in analogy with the HIRLAM snow analysis. Snow depth observations are used to update Snow Water Equivalent. The snow fields are analysed only at and 8 UTC as there are very few snow depth observations at,, 9,, and. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) is not analysed, but taken from the boundaries. ECMWF uses the OSTIA (Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis) product, including SST from UK Met Office and SIC from MET. SST and SIC for the Baltic Sea have since November been taken from the ocean model HIROMB run at SMHI. The surface temperature over sea ice was taken from the boundary model and remained unchanged through the forecast. A simple thermodynamical sea ice scheme (SICE) giving prognostic sea ice temperatures in fixed layers was introduced November. Upper air analysis MEPS runs three dimensional variational (D VAR) data assimilation using conventional observations from synop stations, ships, radiosondes and aircrafts and AMSU-A and AMSU-B/MHS data from polar orbiting NOAA and METOP satellites. GNSS were introduced 7 February, radar reflectivities June and IASI data November. Boundary fields MEPS gets its boundary values (-hourly) from the ECMWF model at approximately km resolution, and has currently vertical levels. None of the HARMONIE configurations at MET have applied digital filter initialization (DFI).

7 Verification measures All model forecasts in this report are verified against observations by interpolating (linear) the grid based forecasts to the observational sites. As a consequence, it should be noted that it is the models abilities to forecast the observations that is being quantifed and assessed. Thus, there is no attempt in this report to verify area averaged precipitation for example. Verification is carried out both for raw and categorized forecasts. In the following, let f,..., f n denote the forecasts and o,...,o n the corresponding observations. Forecasts of continuous variables The verification statistics applied to continuous variables are defined in the table below Statistic Acronym Formula Range Optimal score Mean Error Mean Absolute Error Standard Deviation of Error Root Mean Square Error Correlation ME MAE SDE RMSE COR ( n n n i= ( f i o i ) to n n i= f i o i to n i= ( n ( f i o i ME) ) / n i= In the formula for COR the following definitions are used ( f i o i ) ) / n n i= ( f i f)(o i ō) SD( f)sd(o) to to to f = n n i= f i, ō = n n o i i= SD( f) = ( n n i= ( f i f) ) / (, SD(o) = n for the means and standard deviations of the forecasts and observations. n i= (o i ō) ) / 7

8 Forecasts of categorical variables All variables in this report are continuous in raw form, but it is possible to categorize them and verify these. For example, wind speed above a given threshold could be of interest which would result in two possible outcomes (yes and no). The verification is then completely summarized by a contingency table as the one shown below event observed yes no event forecasted yes a b no c d Verification statistics for such forecasts are listed in the following table Statistic Acronym Formula Range Optimal score Hit rate HR a a+c to False alarm rate F b b+d to False alarm ratio FAR b a+b to Equitable threat score ETS a ar a+b+c ar / to ( = no skill) Hanssen-Kuipers skill score KSS HR - F to ( = no skill) Heidke skill score HSS (a+d)/n ss f ss f to ( = no skill) In the formula for ETS ar=(a+b)(a+c)/n. In the formula for HSS the score for the standard forecast ss f =[(a+b)(a+c)+(b+d)(c+d)]/n. Observations All observations come from Klimadatavarehuset at MET. Only synop stations are used. The model wind speed is verified against mean wind observations, FF. The post processed wind speed is intended to represent maximum wind speed m last hour, and is verified against FX. 8

9 Jun to Aug 7 Mean Sea Level Pressure. Mean Error Nor. stations +,+,...,+ MEPSctrl ECMWF. Standard Deviation of Error Nor. stations +,+,...,+. Mean Absolute Error Nor. stations +,+,..., Mean Error Svalbard stations +,+,...,+ AA ECMWF. Standard Deviation of Error Svalbard stations +,+,...,+. Mean Absolute Error Svalbard stations +,+,..., Mean Error North Scand. stations +,+,...,+ AA MEPSctrl ECMWF Standard Deviation of Error North Scand. stations +,+,..., Mean Absolute Error North Scand. stations +,+,...,

10 Jun to Aug 7 Mean Sea Level Pressure Mean Absolute Error Norwegian stations +,+,+,+ UTC. ECMWF AM MEPSctrl.... Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 Standard Deviation of Error..... Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7. Mean Error..... Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7

11 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m Mean Error Nor. stations +,+,...,+ MEPSctrl ECMWF. Standard Deviation of Error Nor. stations +,+,...,+. Mean Absolute Error Nor. stations +,+,..., Mean Error Svalbard stations +,+,...,+ AA ECMWF. Standard Deviation of Error Svalbard stations +,+,...,+. Mean Absolute Error Svalbard stations +,+,..., Mean Error 78 North Scand. stations +,+,...,+ AA MEPSctrl ECMWF.. Standard Deviation of Error 78 North Scand. stations +,+,...,+.. Mean Absolute Error 78 North Scand. stations +,+,...,

12 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m Mean Error Norwegian stations +,+,+,+ UTC ECMWF AM MEPSctrl Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 Norwegian coastal stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 88 Norwegian inland stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7

13 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m Standard Deviation of Error ECMWF AM MEPSctrl Norwegian stations +,+,+,+ UTC Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 Norwegian coastal stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 88 Norwegian inland stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7

14 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m Mean Absolute Error Norwegian stations +,+,+,+ UTC ECMWF AM MEPSctrl Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 Norwegian coastal stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 88 Norwegian inland stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7

15 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

16 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

17 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology"

18 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology"

19 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology"

20 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

21 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

22 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

23 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m ME at observing sites (numbers in black). MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

24 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

25 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m SDE at observing sites (numbers in black). MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

26 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

27 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m SVALBARD LUFTHAVN.7.7 Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, AA: +8,+,+,+.. ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

28 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m BJØRNØYA Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, AA: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

29 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m TROMSØ.7.7 Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, AA: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop....9 AA synop ECMWF synop

30 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m KAUTOKEINO.7.7 Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,,8.. 8 MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, AA: +8,+,+,+. 9. ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop AA synop ECMWF synop..8..9

31 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m ØRLAND III.7.7 Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+,+.8.. ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop.... ECMWF synop

32 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m BERGEN FLORIDA.7.7 Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+,+.... ECMWF: +8,+,+,+.7.. ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop...7.

33 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m FINSEVATN.7.7 Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+,+...8 ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop...7. ECMWF synop

34 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m NESBYEN TODOKK.7.7 Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+,+.... ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop

35 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m EKOFISK Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop

36 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m SOLA.7.7 Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+,+.... ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop...8.7

37 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m FÆRDER FYR Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop

38 Jun to Aug 7 Temperature m OSLO BLINDERN.7.7 Celsius Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun Celsius Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul Celsius Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop..... ECMWF synop.... 8

39 Jun to Aug 7 Post processed temperature m (PPHC and PPKF).. Mean Error Nor. stations +,+,...,+ MEPSctrl PPHC PPKF.. Standard Deviation of Error Nor. stations +,+,...,+.. Mean Absolute Error Nor. stations +,+,..., Mean Error Nor. coastal stations +,+,...,+ MEPSctrl PPHC PPKF.. Standard Deviation of Error Nor. coastal stations +,+,...,+.. Mean Absolute Error Nor. coastal stations +,+,..., Mean Error Nor. inland stations +,+,...,+ MEPSctrl PPHC PPKF.. Standard Deviation of Error Nor. inland stations +,+,...,+.. Mean Absolute Error Nor. inland stations +,+,...,

40 Jun to Aug 7 Long term ECMWF temperature m Mean Error 7 Norwegian stations ECMWF ECens ECensPP coastal stations inland stations

41 Jun to Aug 7 Long term ECMWF temperature m Standard Deviation of Error 7 Norwegian stations ECMWF ECens ECensPP coastal stations inland stations

42 Jun to Aug 7 Long term ECMWF temperature m Mean Absolute Error ECMWF ECens ECensPP 7 Norwegian stations coastal stations inland stations

43 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m. Mean Error Nor. stations +,+,...,+ MEPSctrl ECMWF. Standard Deviation of Error Nor. stations +,+,...,+. Mean Absolute Error Nor. stations +,+,..., Hit Rate Nor. stations +8,+,+,+ MEPSctrl ECMWF. False Alarm Rate +8,+,+,+. False Alarm Ratio +8,+,+, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s). Equitable Threat Score Nor. stations +8,+,+,+ MEPSctrl ECMWF. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score +8,+,+,+. Heidke Skill Score +8,+,+, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s)

44 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m. Mean Error Svalbard stations +,+,...,+ AA ECMWF. Standard Deviation of Error Svalbard stations +,+,...,+. Mean Absolute Error Svalbard stations +,+,..., Hit Rate Svalbard stations +8,+,+,+ AA ECMWF. False Alarm Rate +8,+,+,+. False Alarm Ratio +8,+,+, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s). Equitable Threat Score Svalbard stations +8,+,+,+ AA ECMWF. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score +8,+,+,+. Heidke Skill Score +8,+,+, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s)

45 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m Mean Error 8 North Scand. stations +,+,...,+ AA MEPSctrl ECMWF Standard Deviation of Error 8 North Scand. stations +,+,..., Mean Absolute Error 8 North Scand. stations +,+,..., Hit Rate 9 North Scand. stations AA MEPSctrl +8,+,+,+ ECMWF. False Alarm Rate +8,+,+,+. False Alarm Ratio +8,+,+, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s). Equitable Threat Score 9 North Scand. stations AA MEPSctrl +8,+,+,+ ECMWF. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score +8,+,+,+. Heidke Skill Score +8,+,+, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s)

46 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m Mean Error ECMWF AM MEPSctrl Norwegian stations +,+,+,+ UTC Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 Norwegian coastal stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 Norwegian mountainous stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7

47 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m Standard Deviation of Error Norwegian stations +,+,+,+ UTC ECMWF AM MEPSctrl Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 Norwegian coastal stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 Norwegian mountainous stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 7

48 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m Mean Absolute Error Norwegian stations +,+,+,+ UTC ECMWF AM MEPSctrl Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 Norwegian coastal stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 Norwegian mountainous stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 8

49 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology"

50 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

51 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

52 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

53 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

54 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m SDE at observing sites (numbers in black). MEPSctrl Model "climatology".7.8.7

55 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m SVALBARD LUFTHAVN m/s Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, AA: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

56 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m BJØRNØYA.7.7 m/s 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s 8 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, AA: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+,+.... ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop.....

57 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m TROMSØ m/s Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, AA: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+,+... ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop.... AA synop ECMWF synop

58 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m SLETTNES FYR.7.7 m/s Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, AA: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+,+... ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop AA synop ECMWF synop

59 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m ØRLAND III.7.7 m/s 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s 8 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+,+.... ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop

60 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m YTTERØYANE FYR.7.7 m/s Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop.....

61 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m FINSEVATN.7.7 m/s Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop

62 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m NESBYEN TODOKK.7.7 m/s Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+,+... ECMWF: +8,+,+,+.8. ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop....9

63 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m EKOFISK.7.7 m/s Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop....

64 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m SOLA m/s Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop.....9

65 Jun to Aug 7 Wind speed m FÆRDER FYR.7.7 m/s Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun m/s Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul m/s Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:,,, MEPSctrl: +8,+,+, ECMWF: +8,+,+, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop

66 Jun to Aug 7 Post processed maximum mean wind speed m (PP). Mean Error 9 Nor. stations +,+,...,+ MEPSctrl PP. Standard Deviation of Error 9 Nor. stations +,+,...,+. Mean Absolute Error 9 Nor. stations +,+,..., Hit Rate Nor. stations +8,+,+,+. False Alarm Rate Nor. stations +8,+,+,+. False Alarm Ratio Nor. stations +8,+,+, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s). Equitable Threat Score Nor. stations +8,+,+,+ MEPSctrl PP. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score Nor. stations +8,+,+,+. Heidke Skill Score Nor. stations +8,+,+, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s)

67 Jun to Aug 7 Wind gust (FG) and wind speed in 9 hpa (FF.9) Mean Error 9 Nor. stations +,+,...,+ MEPSctrlFG MEPSctrlFF.9 Standard Deviation of Error 9 Nor. stations +,+,...,+ Mean Absolute Error 9 Nor. stations +,+,..., Hit Rate 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+,+. False Alarm Rate 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+,+. False Alarm Ratio 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s). Equitable Threat Score 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+,+ MEPSctrlFG MEPSctrlFF.9. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+,+. Heidke Skill Score 8 Nor. stations +8,+,+, Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) Exceedance threshold (m/s) 7

68 Jun to Aug 7 Long term ECMWF wind speed m Mean Error ECMWF ECens ECensPP Norwegian stations coastal stations mountainous stations

69 Jun to Aug 7 Long term ECMWF wind speed m Standard Deviation of Error Norwegian stations ECMWF ECens ECensPP coastal stations mountainous stations

70 Jun to Aug 7 Long term ECMWF wind speed m Mean Absolute Error.. ECMWF ECens ECensPP Norwegian stations coastal stations mountainous stations

71 Jun to Aug 7 hour precipitation. Mean Error 8 Nor. stations +8,+,...,+ MEPSctrl ECMWF. Standard Deviation of Error 8 Nor. stations +8,+,...,+. Mean Absolute Error 8 Nor. stations +8,+,..., Hit Rate 9 Nor. stations +8,+,+,+,+ MEPSctrl ECMWF. False Alarm Rate 9 Nor. stations +8,+,+,+,+. False Alarm Ratio 9 Nor. stations +8,+,+,+, Exceedance threshold (mm) Exceedance threshold (mm) Exceedance threshold (mm). Equitable Threat Score 9 Nor. stations +8,+,+,+,+ MEPSctrl ECMWF. Hansen Kuiper Skill Score 9 Nor. stations +8,+,+,+,+. Heidke Skill Score 9 Nor. stations +8,+,+,+, Exceedance threshold (mm) Exceedance threshold (mm) Exceedance threshold (mm) 7

72 Jun to Aug 7 Daily precipitation Mean Error ECMWF AM MEPSctrl Norwegian stations + UTC Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 coastal stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 9 stations more than m above sea level Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 7 stations with daily mean precipitation > mm Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 7

73 Jun to Aug 7 Daily precipitation Standard Deviation of Error ECMWF AM MEPSctrl Norwegian stations + UTC 8 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 coastal stations 8 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 9 stations more than m above sea level 8 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 7 stations with daily mean precipitation > mm 8 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 7

74 Jun to Aug 7 Daily precipitation Mean Absolute Error 7 ECMWF AM MEPSctrl Norwegian stations + UTC Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 7 coastal stations Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 7 9 stations more than m above sea level Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 7 7 stations with daily mean precipitation > mm Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar7 Jun7 7

75 Jun to Aug 7 Daily precipitation ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology"

76 Jun to Aug 7 Daily precipitation SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology"

77 Jun to Aug 7 Daily precipitation ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology"

78 Jun to Aug 7 Daily precipitation SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology"

79 Jun to Aug 7 Daily precipitation ME at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology"

80 Jun to Aug 7 Daily precipitation SDE at observing sites (numbers in black) MEPSctrl Model "climatology"

81 Jun to Aug 7 hour precipitation SVALBARD LUFTHAVN mm Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun mm Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul mm Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:, AA: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

82 Jun to Aug 7 hour precipitation BJØRNØYA mm Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun mm Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul mm Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:, AA: +8,+. 8. ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N AA synop ECMWF synop

83 Jun to Aug 7 hour precipitation TROMSØ.7.7 mm Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun mm Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul mm Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:, MEPSctrl: +8, AA: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop AA synop ECMWF synop

84 Jun to Aug 7 hour precipitation BODØ VI.7.7 mm Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun mm Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul mm Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:, MEPSctrl: +8, AA: +8,+.. ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop AA synop ECMWF synop

85 Jun to Aug 7 hour precipitation ØRLAND III.7.7 mm Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun mm Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul mm Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:, MEPSctrl: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop

86 Jun to Aug 7 hour precipitation BERGEN FLORIDA.7.7 mm Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun mm Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul mm Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:, MEPSctrl: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop

87 Jun to Aug 7 hour precipitation LÆRDAL IV.7.7 mm Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun mm Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul mm Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:, MEPSctrl: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop

88 Jun to Aug 7 hour precipitation GARDERMOEN.7.7 mm Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun mm Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul mm Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:, MEPSctrl: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop

89 Jun to Aug 7 hour precipitation NELAUG.7.7 mm Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun 8 Jun Jun mm Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul 8 Jul Jul mm Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Aug Aug 7 Sep Min Mean Max Std N synop:, MEPSctrl: +8, ECMWF: +8, ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N MEPSctrl synop ECMWF synop