Open Access The Establishment and Analysis of Accident Control Model Based on Three-Dimensional Coordinates

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1 Sed Orders for Reprits to 1034 The Ope Automatio ad Cotrol Systems Joural, 2015, 7, Ope Access The Establishmet ad Aalysis of Accidet Cotrol Model Based o Three-Dimesioal Coordiates She Zhuo 1,2, Liu Dalog *,1, Luo Miggag 1 ad Xiag Migrui 1 1 Chia Uiversity of Miig ad Techology, Beijig, , P.R. Chia 2 Natioal Istitute for Occupatioal Safety, Beijig, , P.R. Chia Abstract: Through the aalysis of previous theories about the cause of the accidet, our study idetified the mai causes of accidets that are usafe behaviors of huma, usafe coditios of objects ad maagemet factors. Ad the cause of a accidet ofte is multifactorial ot simply due to ay oe of the above three factors. Usafe behavior of huma, the usafe coditio of object, ad maagemet factors are take as X, Y ad Z axis respectively. Keepig the mai reaso for the accidet, iterlaced relatios amog the mai reaso ad the basic laws of security, the accidet cotrol model based o three-dimesioal coordiates was established. By aalyzig the safety factor, accidet factor ad sythesis factor i the model, the security of the system will be aalyzed qualitatively ad quatitatively. Keywords: Accidet-causig, accidet cotrol, model, safety, three-dimesioal coordiates. 1. INTRODUCTION The usual defiitio of Accidet has bee cocluded as the thig, which is beyod people s expectatio ad causes loss, occurs all of a sudde [1]. The rate of social productio has rise higher ad higher, as the developmet of the techology ad the social ecoomy approach a ew level, meawhile. Meawhile the eterprise has put more ad more attetio to the safety. As far as a corporatio is cocered, oce a accidet occurs, it ot oly makes corporatio suffer ecoomic loss but also ruis the reputatio of the eterprise. All these bad thigs result i the bad social ifluece, which is beyod people s evaluatio. Therefore, research o the regulatio of accidet occurrece ad how to prevet its occurrece ad how to reduce the possibility of the accidet s occurrece ad how to miimize the damage ad legthe the period betwee two cotiguous accidets has become researchers hot spot. Researchers at home ad abroad have doe a lot of research o accidet causatio theory, which are as follows: At the begiig of 30s i 20 cetury, Heirich raised Heirich s accidetal chai model, which explais the accidet as a result of a series of evets based o the order of the time of every accidet, which maily iclude social eviromet, humas mistake ad usafe behavior, ad ijuries ad death, which belog to typical accidetal causal chai theory [2]. Heirich uses five domioes to describe this relatioship. If oe of these domioes is touched dow, a series of thigs will happe, which may cause accidet. If oe of them is removed, the relatioship will be destroyed, ad the accidet ca be preveted [3]. *Address correspodece to this author at the Chia Uiversity of Miig ad Techology, Beijig, , P.R. Chia; Tel: ; Fax: ; @qq.com At this foudatio, the America ex-chief of Istitute for iteratioal loss cotrol, Frak Bird raised the moder accidetal causal chai theory. Bird thought i spite of huma s usafe behavior ad the usafe coditio of matters, the mistake of maagemet should be the primary cause [4]. The British Prof. Joh Adams workig i Uiversity of Lodo raised a theory model similar to Bird s theory. Adams called huma s usafe behavior ad the usafe coditio of matters as work place s mistake. Adams thought the primary cause of operator s mistake i work place result from maagemet failure of providig good leadership ad safety staff [5]. All these theories are related to casual theories. Eergy accidetal release theory believes that accidet s occurrece is due to abormal ad uexpected release of eergy. We ca cotrol accidet via cotrollig release of eergy ad carrier of eergy [6]. I 1995, Prof. Che Baozhi raised two hazard source theory based o systematic research o safety theory [7], which believed that the accidet s occurrece is reactio result of two hazard sources. Prof. Fu Gui from Chia Uiversity of Miig ad Techology, Beijig (cumtb, raised a orgaizatio safety maagemet model, which thought orgaizatio s behavior decides idividual s behavior. We ca prevet accidet via correctig orgaizatio s behavior [8]. 2. ANALYSIS ON ACCIDENT Accordig to the cause of the accidet, the total umber of accidets caused by huma mistake was about 70%~90%. I 1950s, accidets occurred i the Uited States, ad i these accidets, huma mistake accouted for 88%. I Japa, i 1977, accidets occurred, which icluded maufacturig kock off for more tha 4 days, the reaso beig huma mistake that accouted for 94.5% [9]. Nearly te years statistics collected by America DuPot Co show that 96% of all accidets occurred i this corporatio resulted from differet kids of usafe behaviors [10]. All / Betham Ope

2 The Establishmet ad Aalysis of Accidet Cotrol Model The Ope Automatio ad Cotrol Systems Joural, 2015, Volume these statistics show that huma s usafe behaviors are the mai reasos of a accidet. Huma beigs are the actual participators ad maagemets. Huma s behaviors have somethig to do with safe productio. Usafe behavior such as worker s workig agaist job regulatio ad coductor s coductig agaist regulatio are ofte the direct reaso resultig i accidets. Therefore, whe it comes to cotrollig accidet, we must take huma s usafe behaviors ito cosideratio. Reducig or eve removig huma s usafe behaviors does well for prevetig accidets. Usafe evirometal coditios have always bee well accepted as the mai reaso to cause accidet. Therefore, essetially safe equipmet has bee created as techology ad material sciece developed. Essetially safe equipmet meas accidet will ot happe, eve whe icorrect operatio or fault happes [11]. Both Bird s theory ad Adams s theory believe that mistakes i maagemet are the mai reaso that caused accidets. Statistics show that 80% of accidets have somethig to do with the maagemet [12]. Therefore, the maagemet s factor is also oe of the mai reasos causig accidets. To sum up, usafe behaviors of huma ad usafe coditios of matter ad maagemet s factor are the mai reaso causig accidets. It is believed that these three aspects are closely liked. For example, for a accidet caused by mistake, its reaso caot simply be cocluded to be oly due to huma s usafe behavior. Maagemet s lack ad eve the faulty equipmet may be the reaso. This way all three aspects may be cosidered as participats of a accidet. A safe measuremet s coductio may help remove these factors whereas a dagerous measuremet may ehace them. 3. THREE-DIMENSIONAL COORDINATES ACCIDENT CONTROL MODEL 3.1. Model s Theoretical Basis (1 Accordig to the last sectio, usafe huma behaviors, usafe coditios of objects, ad lack of maagemet are the mai factors causig accidet. (2 A safe measuremet s coductio may have a positive effect o all three aspects, ot just oly oe aspect. (3 Murphy's law idicates that aythig which is i fact possible, o matter how small the possibility is, ca happe whe get eough time. Evet, which may cause accidet, may be such a possibility followed by a accidet that will occur sometime [13, 14]. We ca state this law i math formula as follow: P =1-(1-P (1 P--possibility of some sudde thig, (P>0;--the time of possible thig s occurrece; P --the possibility of occurrece after the thig is repeated times. As you ca see, however, P is small whe goes bigger ad bigger, P becomes closer ad closer to 1. This idicates that accidet is ievitable. What ca be doe is to prevet the possibility ad to reduce the loss of accidet ad to legthe the period betwee two cotiguous accidets Three-Dimesioal Coordiates Accidet Cotrol Model s Establishmet Based o the theory of the mai reaso for the accidet aalysis ad model buildig, accordig to the people's usafe behavior, usafe coditio ad maagemet factors, we established the security state of the system of threedimesioal coordiate safety maagemet model (Fig. 1. The model takes the usafe huma behavior as the X axis, ad the usafe state of the material as Y axis, the maagemet factor as Z axis. The zero idicates the absolute safety state. The space is composed of X>0, Y>0, Z>0, which is called dagerous space which is short for D. We ame the poit as accidet factor which is short for d. The space composed of X<0, Y<0, Z<0 which is called for safe space short for S. Ad we call the space poit as safety factor short for s. The distace betwee the accidet factor ad zero is called the accidet scale dl. The distace betwee the safety factor ad the zero is called the safety scale sl. The values of the icidet scale are gradually icreasig alog the X, Y ad Z axes, while the values of the safe scale are gradually decreased alog the X, Y ad Z axis, ad their absolute values are gradually icreased. (Usafe coditio of object! " (Maagemet factor! " (Huma usafe behavior! " Fig. (1 Three-dimesioal coordiates accidet cotrol model Aalysis of the Three-Dimesioal Coordiates Accidet Cotrol Model The safety factors i the model idicate that all methods ad meas ca improve system security ad suppress accidets. For example, the replacemet of advaced equipmet, stregthe maagemet systems ad so o are safety measures. Whe the safety factor is located at X, Y or Z egative axle, it represets that the safety factor oly belogs to ay oe of the huma behavior, coditio, or maagemet factors, such as the replacemet of advaced equipmet just belog to the aspect of coditio of object, it

3 1036 The Ope Automatio ad Cotrol Systems Joural, 2015, Volume 7 Zhuo et al. should be located i Y egative axle. However, accordig to the basic theory (2 of the model, there are may safety factors that do ot simply belog to oe of the three kids of security factors, but are associated with a variety of factors. Whe safety factors are i the egative plae circled by X ad Y, Y ad Z, or X ad Z or i the space amed S costituted by X, Y ad Z, safety factors idicate that the cotets cotai two or three of huma behavior, the state of matter ad maagemet factors, these safety factors ca improve the security status of people, goods, ad maagemet simultaeously. The projected legth of its security dimesio o X, Y, Z axis represets the compoet size of people, objects ad maagemet (Fig. 2.! (Maagemet factor! " (Huma usafe behavior! " ##############$! (Maagemet factor! " (Usafe coditio of object! " Fig. (2. Safety factor aalysis. where slz = sl siθ sly = sl cosθ cosα slx = sl cosθsiα (Huma usafe behavior! " sl z a safety factor security dimesio compoet size o Z-axis. sl y a safety factor security dimesio compoet size o Y-axis. sl x a safety factor security dimesio compoet size o X-axis.! Agle betwee a safety factor ad Z- egative axle.! Agle betwee Y- egative axle ad a projectio of safety factor o XOY plae. Accidet factors represet the potetial risk factors which ca cause accidets, such as the illegal operatios. Similar to the safety factors, whe a accidet factor is located o X, Y, or Z-positive axle, it idicates that the accidet factor oly belogs to ay oe of the huma usafe acts, usafe coditios or maagemet factors. Whe accidet factors are i the positive plae circled by X ad Y, Y ad Z, or X ad Z or i the space amed D costituted by X, Y ad Z, accidet factors idicate the cotets cotai ay two or three of huma usafe behavior, usafe coditio of object ad maagemet factors bleded. The projected legth of its accidet dimesio i X, Y, Z axis represets the compoet size of people, objects ad maagemet (Fig. 3. (2 (Usafe coditio of object! " Fig. (3 Accidet factor aalysis. $ dl z = dl! si" % dl y = dl! cos"! cos# ' dl x = dl! cos" si# dl z a accidet factor s dimesio compoet size o Z-axis. dl y a accidet factor s dimesio compoet size o Y-axis. dl x a accidet factor s dimesio compoet size o X-axis.! Agle betwee a accidet factor ad Z- positive axle.! Agle betwee Y- positive axle ad a projectio of accidet factor o XOY plae The Dagerous Classificatio i the Model I the model, the modulus of vectors of all accidet factors mius the modulus of vectors of all safety factors is the sythesis factor represeted by C. Sythesis factor C represets the security status of the system. All modulus of vectors of accidet factors <10, Sythesis factor C>0. Accordig to sythesis factor C, the system ca divide hazard level, as show i Table 1. Table 1. Hazard ratigs list. C Hazard Level (0,1] Relatively safe (1,3] Low risk (3,7] Itermediate risk (7,10] High risk (10,10+ Serious risk NOTE: The size of the accidet factors ad safety factors are determied based o the actual situatio of the system. The basic priciples are accordig to the ifluece of the accidet factors or safety factors o the security of the system to determie the size. (3

4 The Establishmet ad Aalysis of Accidet Cotrol Model The Ope Automatio ad Cotrol Systems Joural, 2015, Volume Sythesis Factor Calculatio $ ' (!"! sl i si" i 2 + (! sl i cos" i cos# i 2 2! s i = +(! sl i cos" i si# i 2 % ( m m $ ' (! dl m!"! j si" j 2 + (! dl j cos" j cos# j 2 2! d j = m +(! dl j cos" j si# j 2 % ( m!"!!" C =! d j "! s i (6 C Sythesis factor Number of safety factors m Number of accidet factors! Agle betwee a safety factor ad Z- egative axle.! Agle betwee Y- egative axle ad a projectio of safety factor i XOY plae.! Agle betwee a accidet factor ad Z- positive axle.! Agle betwee Y- positive axle ad a projectio of accidet factor i XOY plae. Thereby, the size of sythesis factor will be calculated, which ca quatitatively aalyze the security status of the system. 4. MODEL APPLICATION O December 27, 2009, at Chagsha City, Hua Provice, "Shaghai City" costructio site, a elevator fall accidet occurred while trasportig costructio workers. It killed 18 people, oe seriously ijured. The accidet was aalyzed by the based o threedimesioal coordiates accidet cotrol model: (1 Safety factor: s 1 (sl 1 =2, θ 1 =90, α 1 =0 : Civil egieerig supervisio arragemet (2 Accidet factors: d 1 :(dl 1 =3, γ 1 =60, β 1 =0: Failig acceptace. d 2 :(dl 2 =5, γ 2 =11.5, β 2 =45 : Elevator stadard sectio bolt is ot required to istall. d 3 :(dl 3 =2, γ 3 =30, β 3 =90 : Overloadig d 4 :(dl 4 =2, γ 4 =0, β 4 =90 : Elevator istallers without practicig certificate. d 5 :(dl 5 =3, γ 5 =30, β 5 =90 : Perso i charge of the site uexamied. 1 1 (4 (5 d 6 :(dl 6 =2, γ 6 =0, β 6 =90 : Supervisory staff did ot perform the duty. d 7 :(dl 7 =2, γ 7 =45, β 7 =90 : Security staff was ot arraged to maage site security. d 8 :(dl 8 =3, γ 8 =45, β 8 =90 : Corporate represetatives privately hired staff without practicig certificate. (3 Calculatig Sythesis factor (C Accordig to Formula 2~6: Result: C=16.8 >10, accordig to Hazard Level Table, the elevator was at serious risk level. Huma usafe behavior is the first importat factor of the accidet; maagemet is the secod; ad the usafe coditio of object is the third. So, the accidet is withi the expected. =1 sl z(i! = 2!"! = 2 =1 s i dl z( j =1! "! sl z(i = 7.6 d j!"!! = 18.8 dl x( j! = 15.3 dl z( j! = 9.6 dl y( j! = 5.0!"! =1!" C =! d j "! s i = 16.8 CONCLUSION (1 Combiig with previous aalyses for accidet causig theory ad statistics, it has bee established that the mai reasos for accidets are usafe behaviors of huma, usafe coditios of objects ad maagemet factors. (2 The relatioship amog huma usafe acts, usafe coditios of object ad maagemet is itertwied, that is implemetig security measures for avoidig accidets might have a positive impact o all three aspects i.e. people, goods ad maagemet, rather tha simply oe of them. (3 Accordig to the mai reasos of accidet draw from the aalysis, the accidet cotrol model icludes huma usafe acts, usafe coditios of object, ad maagemet factors as axis. This model ca

5 1038 The Ope Automatio ad Cotrol Systems Joural, 2015, Volume 7 Zhuo et al. qualitatively ad quatitatively aalyze system security. (4 Based o the elevator fallig accidet metioed above, applicatio of the model listed safety factors ad accidet factors of the elevator; ad accordig to the formula give i the model calculated the size of its dagers. CONFLICT OF INTEREST The authors cofirm that this article cotet has o coflict of iterest. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Declared oe. REFERENCES [1] Natioal registered safety egieer qualificatio examiatio couselig Textbook Compilatio Committee. Kowledge of Safety Productio Maagemet. Beijig: Coal Idustry Press, 2004, pp [2] X. Su, X. Zhou, J. Li, ad J. Yag, Research o developmet ad applicatio of accidet model theory, Quality ad Reliability, vol. 2 pp , [3] M. Zhog, Y. Wei, W. Fa, ad Q. Wag, Overview o Accidet- Causig Theories, Fire Sciece, vol. 3, pp , [4] C. Luo, ad X. Xie, Compariso study of Accidet-Causig Theories, Chia Safety Productio Sciece ad Techology, vol. 5, pp , [5] R. Qi, ad D. Peg, Discuss of the Accidet -Causig Theory, Joural of North Chia Istitute of Sciece ad Techology, vol. 3, pp. 1-10, [6] Q. Che, Aalysis o Accidet Causatio Factors ad Hazard Theory, Chiese Joural of Safety Sciece Chia Safety Sciece, vol. 10, pp , [7] B. Che, Hazard Idetificatio ad Cotrol ad Evaluatio, Chegdu: Sichua sciece ad Techology Press, [8] G. Fu, B. Lu, ad X. Che, Behavior Based Model for Orgaizatioal Safety Maagemet, Chiese Joural of Safety Sciece, vol. 9, pp , [9] D. Yag, Aalysis o the Cause of Huma Errors ad Study o the Prevetive Coutermeasures, Chiese Joural of Safety Sciece, vol. 2, [10] Y. Liu, ad S. Shi, Behavior Motivatio Mechaism i Coal mie Accidet Prevetio, Chiese Joural of Safety Sciece, vol. 2, pp , [11] J. Tao, O Essetial Safety, Chiese Joural of Safety Sciece, vol. 5, pp. 4-11, [12] Q. Wu, ad K. Xu, Safety Maagemet Sciece, Beijig: Coal Idustry Press, [13] Q. Cui, S. Huag, ad G. Li, O alert security maagemet fuctios - Murphy's Law Implicatios, Chia Safety Sciece, vol. 4, pp , [14] H. Wag, Q. Ye, Y. Pi, ad Y. Ta, Murphy's Law i Coal Mie Safety Maagemet, Miig Egieerig, vol. 1, pp , Received: May 26, 2015 Revised: July 14, 2015 Accepted: August 10, 2015 Zhuo et al.; Licesee Betham Ope. This is a ope access article licesed uder the terms of the ( which permits urestricted, o-commercial use, distributio ad reproductio i ay medium, provided the work is properly cited.

Reliability model of organization management chain of South-to-North Water Diversion Project during construction period

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