ENGI 4421 Probability and Statistics Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science Problem Set 10 Solutions Chi-Square Tests; Simple Linear Regression
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1 ENGI 441 Prbbly nd Sscs Fculy f Engneerng nd Appled Scence Prblem Se 10 Sluns Ch-Squre Tess; Smple Lner Regressn 1. Is he fllwng se f bservns f bjecs n egh dfferen drecns cnssen wh unfrm dsrbun? Drecn Number f bjecs bserved N 4 NE 6 E 13 SE 11 S 1 SW 18 W 11 NW 5 There re egh cegres, cnnng l f O = E = = 10 > 5 8 Tes : d re frm unfrm dsrbun vs. : n. Exendng he ble, Drecn O E O E ( O ( O E E E N NE E SE S SW W NW Tl:
2 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge f 14 1 (cnnued The ch-squre es ssc s χ bs = The number f degrees f freedm s ν = n 1= 7 The crcl vlue s χ α,7. A α =.05, c = χ = , bu α =.01, c = χ = , 7.01, 7 χ bs = 15.6 The decsn depends n he level f sgnfcnce α chsen. A α =.05, χ > c rejec, bu bs bs A α =.01, χ < c d n rejec. Ths resul s mrgnlly sgnfcn. Frm he ssced Excel fle, he p-vlue s.09, s h.01 < p <.05. The nswer s NO YES f α =.05 f α =.01. A mdel f chemcl prcess predcs he numbers f runs f prcess h shuld fll n ech f fve me nervls. Are he vlues shwn n he ble belw cnssen wh he vlues expeced frm he mdel 5% level f sgnfcnce? Tme nervl bserved expeced > O = E = 100 nd every expeced vlue s > 5. Tes : d re frm he mdel dsrbun vs. Exendng he ble, : n, α =.05.
3 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 3 f 14 (cnnued Tme nervl O E O E O ( E ( O E E > Tl: The ch-squre es ssc s χ bs = The number f degrees f freedm s ν = n 1= 4 The crcl vlue s c = χα,4 = χ.05,4 = A α =.05, χ < c d n rejec. bs Frm he ssced Excel fle, he p-vlue s.104, s h p >.05. The nswer s YES 3. Rndm smples f cbles re ken frm shpmens frm fur mnufcurers. Ech cble n ech smple s grded ccrdng he ld ppled when h cble breks. The resuls re summrzed n hs cnngency ble. Mnufcurer Quly f cble A B C D X Y Z Are hese d cnssen wh ndependence beween mnufcurer nd quly f cble? Tes : he fcrs mnufcurer nd quly re ndependen vs. ν = I 1 J 1 = 3 = 6 ( ( : n.
4 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 4 f 14 3 (cnnued Exendng he ble, Mnufcurer Quly f cble A B C D Tl X Y Z Tl The ble f vlues expeced when s rue s clculed by ej = Fr exmple, e3 = = = Expeced vlues: Quly f cble A B C D Tl X Mnufcurer Y Z Tl ( j ej All expeced vlues re > 5. The vlues f ej re: Quly f cble A B C D X Mnufcurer Y Z j. 3 4 = 1 j= 1 ( j ej χbs = = e j 9.94 c= χ = χ = 1.59 r χ = χ < c,6.05,6.01,6 bs α Frm he ssced Excel fle, he p-vlue s.17, s h p >.05. D n rejec. Therefre YES These d re cnssen wh ndependence beween mnufcurer nd quly f cble.
5 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 5 f A prculr ype f mr s knwn hve n upu rque whse rnge n nrml pern fllws nrml dsrbun. Seven mrs re chsen rndm nd re esed wh he ld nd new mehds f cnrllng he rnge f rque vlues. The resuls f he ess re s fllws: Mr: New mehd: Old mehd: ( Jusfy yur chce f mehd n (b belw. The d re prs f mesuremens n sngle se f ndvduls (he seven mrs. Therefre he pprpre mehd s pred w-smple -es (b Cnduc n pprpre hyphess es deermne wheher here s suffcen evdence cnclude h he rnge f rques wh he new mehd s les uns less hn wh he ld mehd. Le X = rque (new mehd Y = rque (ld mehd nd D = X Y Tes : µ D = vs. : µ D < Free chce f α. I chse α =.01. Mr: Sum SSq x = New Mehd: y = Old Mehd: d = Dfference: D: n= 7, d = 0.1, d = d = , sd = = , sd =
6 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 6 f 14 4 (b (cnnued Mehd 1 s c = µ D.01, 6 n = = = =.396 OR OR d =.87 < c Rejec n fvur f. Mehd d µ D.87 ( bs = = = 6.9 s 0.16 n = = c bs <.01, c Rejec n fvur f. Mehd 3 bs = = 6.9 Clerly P[T < 6.9] <<.01 [Frm sfwre, P[T < 6.9] < ] Rejec n fvur f ny resnble vlue f α. An Excel spredshee fle s ls vlble llusre hs slun. (c Use he smple lner regressn mdel n hese d fnd he equn f he lne f bes f hese d. Ne h he lne f bes f depends n whch vrble s he predcr nd whch s he respnse. The rles f X nd Y re nerchnged f he new mehd s he respnse, (whch s he mre nurl ssgnmen.
7 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 7 f 14 4 (c (cnnued Summry sscs (respnse = Y = ld mehd: n= 7 x= 3.93 x = nsxx = n x ( x = n S xy = n xy ( x( y = nsyy = n y ( y = xy= y= y = S ˆ xy β1 = = = S xx nd β 1 0 ( y β1 x ˆ = ˆ = n Therefre, (crrec 3 s.f. n ech ceffcen, OR y = x Summry sscs (respnse = Y = new mehd: n= 7 x= x = xy= y= y = xx ( ( ( ( ns = n x x = n S = n xy x y = xy ns = n y y = yy S ˆ xy β1 = = = S xx nd β 1 0 ( y β1 x ˆ = ˆ = n Therefre, (crrec 3 s.f. n ech ceffcen, y = 1.0 x 4.4 An Excel spredshee fle s vlble llusre he secnd versn f hs slun.
8 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 8 f 14 4 (d Fnd he ceffcen f deermnn R nd use cmmen n yur nswer pr ( bve. Irrespecve f whch f ld r new mehds s he regressr, ( nsxy ( nsxx ( nsyy ( r = = = r = 97.9% (crrec 3 s.f. Very hgh crreln cnn use unpred -es Chce n ( s crrec. A Mnb prjec fle nd Mnb Repr Pd RTF fle re ls vlble llusre hs slun. 5. A sudy ws cnduced nlyze he relnshp beween dversng expendure nd sles. The fllwng d were recrded: X Y Adversng ($ Sles ($ Assume smple lner regressn beween sles Y nd dversng X. Clcule he ceffcens β 0 nd β 1 f he lne f bes f hese d nd esme he sles when $8 re spen n dversng. Is here sgnfcn lner sscn beween Y nd X? Exendng he ble: x y x x y y Sum:
9 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 9 f 14 5 (cnnued n S xx = n Σ x (Σ x = (141 = = 744 n S xy = n Σ xy (Σ x Σ y = = = 8390 n S yy = n Σ y (Σ y = (1960 = = S ˆ xy 8390 β1 = = = S 744 xx 1 nd β0 ( y β1 x ( ˆ ˆ = = = n 5 The regressn lne ( 4 s.f. s y = 11.8 x x = 8 y = = When $8 s spen n dversng, we predc $390 f sles (crrec he neres dllr. There re mny chces f mehd fr n hyphess es fr lner sscn. Tes : ρ = 0 vs. : ρ 0 r, equvlenly, es : β 1 = 0 vs. : β1 0 ( nsxy ( nsxx ( nsyy 8390 r = = = jus ver 95% f ll vrn n y s explned by he lner regressn. The crreln ( s very srng, (whch suggess h here s lner sscn, bu he smple sze s very smll, s we shuld prceed wh frml hyphess es. r n.95 3 = = 1 r r
10 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 10 f 14 5 (cnnued ( nsxy ( n ( nsxx ( nsyy ( nsxy = = r clcule he enres n he ANOVA ble s fllws: ( nsxy n( nsxx 8390 SSR = ( yˆ y = = = nsyy SST = y y = S yy = = = n 5 ( SSE = SST SSR = MSR = SSR / ν R = SSR = MSE = SSE / ν E = SSE / 3 = f = MSR / MSE = d.f. SS MS f R E T = + f = r MSE n MSE sb = = = = S 744 xx ( nsxx ˆ β s.14 1 = = = b Cmpre he bserved = , 3 = > α/, 3 fr ny resnble chce f α. [The p-vlue s less hn.0046.] Rejec n fvur f YES, here s sgnfcn lner sscn beween Y nd X. [See ls he ssced Excel, Mnb prjec nd Mnb RTF fles.]
11 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 11 f [Ths s n exensn f Exmple 1.06 frm he lecure nes.] A smple f 10 desel rucks were run bh h nd cld esme he dfference n fuel ecnmy. The resuls, n mles per glln, re presened n he fllwng ble. (frm In-use Emssns frm evy-duy Desel Vehcles, J. Ynwz, Ph.D. hess, Clrd Schl f Mnes, 001. Truck Cld ( Use he smple lner regressn mdel n hese d fnd he equn f he lne f bes f (fr s he respnse nd Cld s he regressr hese d mnully. Summry sscs: n= 10, x= 45.86, y = ns ( xx = n x x = nsxy = n xy ( x( y = ns ( yy = n y y = x = , xy= , y = S ˆ xy β1 = = = Sxx ˆ β0 = ( y ˆ β1 x = n Therefre, crrec hree sgnfcn fgures n ech ceffcen, he regressn lne s y = 1.1 x 0.16
12 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 1 f 14 6 (b Clcule he 95% predcn nervl fr sngle fuure bservn f fuel effcency when run h, fr ruck whse fuel effcency when run cld s 4.00 mles per glln. The frmul fr he predcn nervl s ( ˆ ˆ 1 n x β0 + β1x ± α /, ( n s n ( nsxx ( nsyy ( nsxy ( ( ns ( x ( ns xx ( s = MSE = = n n = s = α =.05 = = α /, n x x = = = n 10 xx.05, 8 ( ( x = 4.00 x x = ˆ = ˆ + ˆ = = Therefre he 95% PI x = 4 s nd y β0 β1x ± = ± = ( 4.018, 4.634] ( 3 d.p.
13 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 13 f 14 6 (c Use Mnb (r nher sfwre pckge check h he dsrbun f he resduls s cnssen wh nrml dsrbun. Ths nrml prbbly pl clerly demnsres cnssency wh nrml dsrbun. (d Use Mnb (r nher sfwre pckge shw he ANOVA ble, he equn f he lne f bes f nd dsply he lne f bes f, he 95% cnfdence nervls nd he 95% predcn nervls n sngle dgrm. Regressn Anlyss: versus Cld The regressn equn s = Cld S = R-Sq = 98.5% R-Sq(dj = 98.3% Anlyss f Vrnce Surce DF SS MS F P Regressn Errr Tl
14 ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Sluns Pge 14 f 14 6 (d (cnnued ENGI 441 Prblem Se 10 Quesn 6 = Cld Regressn 95% CI 95% PI S R-Sq 98.5% R-Sq(dj 98.3% Cld (e Fnd he smple crreln ceffcen r beween h nd cld fuel effcences, crrec hree sgnfcn fgures. SSR r = = =.984 =.99 SST Crrec hree sgnfcn fgures, r =.99 (whch verfes he clm f srng crreln mde n Exmple An Excel fle, Mnb prjec fle nd Mnb RTF fle re vlble fr hs quesn. Bck he ndex f sluns
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