Spatial discrete hazards using Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling

Transcription

1 Spatial discrete hazards using Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Mathias Graf ETH Zurich, Institute for Structural Engineering, Group Risk & Safety 1

2 Papers -Maes, M.A., Dann M., Sarkar S., and Midtgaard, A.K., (2007) Fatality rate modeling within a spatial network using hierarchical Bayes methods, Webpublished in the Proceedings International Forum on Engineering Decision Making, IFED2007, Port Stephens, December. - Ng, K., Hung, W. and Wong, W. (2002) Algorithm for assessing the risk of traffic accident. Journal of Safety Research, 33, pp

3 Content Risk analysis of a road network - Establish a model using a classical approach - Establish a model using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach - Using WinBUGS to establish a model and estimate model parameters - Using the model for risk analysis and decision making 3

4 Risk analysis of a road network - Establishing an accident event estimation model by means of potential causal factors -Identifying significant causal factors -Identifying high risk zones 4

5 Classical approach Example Hong Kong (Ng, K. et all) -Data merging -Data clustering -Model calibration -Black site identification 5

6 Data merging Combining accident data with: -Digital map -Zones -Potential causal factors -Land use information -Road information 6

7 Data merging -274 traffic analysis zone -Land use data 7

8 Data merging -274 traffic analysis zone -Accident locations 8

9 Data merging traffic analysis zone - Fatality locations 9

10 Data clustering -Internal homogenous & external heterogeneous 10

11 Defining model - Literature search for existing models for similar problems. - Appling physical models. - Establishing a statistical model using availible data. 11

12 Model calibration - Choosing model - Estimating model parameters for each zone separately ( y) PY ( y α ) ( 1! α ) Γ + αλ 1 = = y Γ 1+ αλ 1+ αλ 1 y α 1 α α 0 y λ = overdispersion parameter = number of accident events = expected mean number of accident events. 12

13 Model calibration - Choosing model - Estimating model parameters for each zone separately λ = ( y) PY λ x β = expected mean number of accident events exp x ( β ) ( y α ) ( 1! α ) Γ + αλ 1 = = y Γ 1+ αλ 1+ αλ 1 y α 1 = vector with indicators = vector with regression coefficients 13

14 Model calibration ( y) PY ( y α ) ( 1! α ) Γ + αλ 1 = = y Γ 1+ αλ 1+ αλ λ = exp x ( β ) 1 y α 1 14

15 Establishing a model using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach Example Norway costal road E18 (Maes, M.A et all) 15

16 Segmentation of the road - Different road characteristics - Accident data 16

17 Accident data Accident outcomes Random variables describing the accident outcome 17

18 Adding spatial reference to accident data Number of events Y observed in 5 years and empirical estimates of annual accident and fatality rates θ 18

19 Available Indicators - Annual average daily traffic (AADT) - Speed limit - Number of crossings - Number of lanes - Curviness - Bridges - Tunnels 19

20 Available Indicators For each segment 20

21 Defining model Y i - The occurrence of within a segment with the length L during a period with a time t is modeled i by Y Poisson θ L t ( ) i i i 21

22 Defining model - The occurrence of within a segment with the length L during a period with a time t is modeled i by Y Poisson θ L t -Whereby Y i ( ) i i i θ = exp( μ + ε + φ ) i i i i 22

23 Defining model - The occurrence of within a segment with the length L during a period with a time t is modeled i by Y Poisson θ L t -Whereby Y i μ i = meanlog-risk μi = xiβ x = 1, x,..., x = spatial covariates characterizing the segment i } } { i 1i mi { i 0 1 m ( ) i i i θ = exp( μ + ε + φ ) i i i i β = β, β,..., β = regression coefficients m = number of indicators 23

24 Defining model - The occurrence of within a segment with the length L during a period with a time t is modeled i by Y Poisson θ L t -Whereby Y i ( ) i i i θ = exp( μ + ε + φ ) i i i i ε ( 2 0, σ ) i N ε σ 2 ε system wide variability (nugget effect) 24

25 Defining model - The occurrence of within a segment with the length L during a period with a time t is modeled i by Y Poisson θ L t -Whereby Y i ( ) i i i θ = exp( μ + ε + φ ) i i i i φ i = Zero-mean random field capturing any cluster effects { φ } 2 ( 2 ) 1,..., φn σφ, rφ Multivariate normal 0, Σ σφ, rφ d ( ( 2, )) 2 ij Σ σφ rφ = σφ exp r φ = correlation lenght ij r φ d = distance between centroids of the segment i and segment j ij 25

26 Using WinBUGS for parameter estimation - Using doodle to scratch model - Generating code and defining model - Preparing input data - Updating the model to estimate parameters - Using WinBUGS scripts to easily perform several parameter estimations in a batch mode 26

27 Using WinBUGS for parameter estimation - Using doodle to scratch model 27

28 Using WinBUGS for parameter estimation - Generate code and defining model - Check definition of parameters in WinBUGS 28

29 Using WinBUGS for parameter estimation - Preparing input data and initial values WinBUGS format: Start with list( ) - Single values: n = 17 - Vectors: Y = c(0,1,2,3,3,0,3,0,5,0,4,7,2,8,1,0,1) - Matrix: - x=structure(.data=c(6.92,1.56,,3.14),.dim = c(17,8)) Using matlab to generate input files 29

30 Using WinBUGS for parameter estimation - Checking model and loading data 30

31 Using WinBUGS for parameter estimation - Defining which variables will be monitored - Updating: using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sample posterior distribution. 31

32 Using WinBUGS for parameter estimation - Using WinBUGS scripts to easily perform several parameter estimations in a batch mode - Sample script code: display('log') #progress is show in a log window check('model.odc') #load and check the model data('data.txt') #load data file compile(1) #compile model gen.inits() #generate initial values #define which variable will be monitored set(lambda) set(theta) 32

33 Using WinBUGS for parameter estimation - Using WinBUGS scripts to easily perform several parameter estimations in a batch mode beg(1000) end( ) update(10000) refresh(1000) stats(*) save('stats.txt') # select a subset of the stored sample for analysis. #set the number of MCMC updates #start updates and refresh screen after 1000 updates #show statistics of all monitored variables #save the statistics in a file 33

34 Estimated Parameters - Check influence of indicators - Use estimated parameters to estimate risk for road segments 34

35 Checking model Cross validation Establish model using 16 segments and test it on the 17 th segment. Estimate the prediction error of the model. 35

36 Difference between hierarchical and nonhierarchical approach. 36

37 Decision making - Estimating risk for the selected road segments - Estimating risk for new road segments - Using the risk analysis to allocate resources to improve high risk areas 37

38 Real-time risk analysis - Conditioning network on road conditions - Lanes closed, construction site - Including other indicators - Traffic news -Day time - Weather (forecast) - Real time monitoring system 38