THE ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF THE RELATION BETWEEN ROAD TRANSPORTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

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1 PERIODICA POLYTECHNICA SER. TRANSP. ENG. VOL. 35, NO. 1 2, PP (2007) THE ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF THE RELATION BETWEEN ROAD TRANSPORTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE Ádám TÖRÖK Departmet of Trasport Ecoomics Budapest Uiversity of Techology ad Ecoomics H-1111 Budapest, Bertala L. u. 2., Hugary Tel.: , Fax.: , atorok@kgazd.bme.hu Received: Sept. 30, 2006 Abstract The target of this article is to aalyse ad evaluate the relatio betwee road trasportatio ad climate chage, through the log time series of average CO 2 cocetratio i the atmosphere ad global average temperature of Earth. This article is built o data from the age before the huma impact o Earth. It ca be clearly see from the research that the huma impact o air quality has differet tedecy tha it had before. The tred of time-series was early idepedet from time: it was costat. It ca be idetified from the data that the icrease of temperature was usually faster tha the decrease i decreasig periods. There is a strog correlatio betwee the average CO 2 cocetratio i air ad the average temperature of the Earth. The CO 2 emitted ito the eviromet icreases the global temperature of the Earth. A huge part of the CO 2 emitted by makid ito the atmosphere comes from trasportatio, maily from the sector of road trasportatio. Keywords: CO 2 emissio, climate chage, trasportatio. 1. Itroductio This research aims to aalyse ad evaluate the relatio betwee trasportatio ad climate chage, through the log time series of average CO 2 cocetratio i the air ad average temperature of Earth. The historical, years old data [1] start before the evirometal huma impact. This is the basis of the extrapolated data for owadays. It ca be see from the aalysis that chage caused by the huma impact, is diversed from the average. ppppo the overview of the database focused o the size of sample ad the heterogeety I maaged to put them o a commo timelie. Now it is a great opportuity to aalyse ad evaluate the relatio betwee climate chage ad road trasportatio. 2. Treds i Average Temperature of Earth ad Cocetratio of CO 2 i Air With commo statistical tools the hypothetical tred ca be discovered with the elimiatio of cycle effects. This meas that we ca apprehed ot the idividual

2 126 Á. TÖRÖK short pheomeo, but the log-raged, complex effects. Examiig the Glasshouse effect I assumed that I do ot eed to examie the whole atmosphere, but oly the relevat CO 2 compoet. That is why I have examied oly the average CO 2 cocetratio i air ad the average temperature of Earth. The graphical aalysis shows that the time series ca be divided ito growig ad fallig periods Fig. 1. shows the log waves of the Earth average temperature ad it ca be clearly idetified that the CO 2 emissio shows similar waves (Fig. 2). Chages of average temperature of Earth [ C] T (average of global temperature of Earth) Movig average Fig. 1. Time series of the global average temperature of Earth ad the movig average Chages i cocetratio of atmospherical carbodioxide [ppm] Average cocetratio of carbodioxide Movig average Fig. 2. Time series of atmospherical carbo dioxide ad movig average It ca be see that the movig averages represet the process ad ucrease the deflectio of certai terms, that is why I assume to use the movig averages. I have examied the log treds of the CO 2 cocetratio at the atmosphere ad the log treds of average temperature of Earth. It is clarified that there were o importat chages i treds i the time o oe of them.

3 THE ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF RELATION BETWEEN ROAD TRANSPORTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE The Periodic Aalysis of Average Temperature of Earth I this issue I am goig to aalyse the decrease ad icrease of average temperature of Earth. The total time series ca be separated ito 4 periods. All of them ca be separated ito risig ad fallig part. They ca be compared (Fig. 3) ,883 3, ,422 4,585 Risig i temperature Fallig i temperature ,208 1,865 1, Periods 1,202 Fig. 3. The bars of risigs ad falligs i temperature From the results the icrease of the periodic time ca be estimated but because of the small amout of data risig ad fallig periods caot be compared further more. Next to the bar chart the gradiet of the risigs ad falligs ca be see i [ C/ years]. (Table 1) Table 1. Gradiet of risigs ad falligs i temperature [ C/ years] Risig Fallig Maximum Miimum Average Deviatio From the data it ca be see that the risigs of temperature before the huma impact were 3 to 5 times faster tha the falligs.

4 128 Á. TÖRÖK 4. Correlatio betwee CO 2 i Atmosphere ad Average Temperature of Earth To aalyse the correlatio of global average temperature ad CO 2 cocetratio i the atmosphere I have ormalized both time series. u i = x i x σ (1) where ui : a ormalized value x i : actual value of time series x i : average of x i values σ : deviatio of x i values x = σ : deviatio of x i values [2]: x average of x i values: x i (2) (xi x) σ = 2 The ormalized graph ca be see at Fig. 4. (3) Normalised timeseries 2,5 1,5 0,5-0,5-1,5 Average temperature of Earth Average carbo dioxide cocetratio i atmosphere -2, Fig. 4. Normalized time series of CO 2 ad temperature before huma impact My hypothesis is that there is relatio betwee the cocetratio of CO 2 ad the average temperature of Earth. I will justify the acceptability of my hypothesis by χ 2 test. My H 0 hypothesis: There is a relatio betwee atmospherical CO 2 cocetratio ad average temperature of Earth.

5 THE ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF RELATION BETWEEN ROAD TRANSPORTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE 129 My H 1 ati-hypothesis: There is o relatio betwee atmospherical CO 2 cocetratio ad average temperature of Earth. With χ 2 test I tested the ormalized values, I got that: χ 2 = m (f i f ti ) 2 χcrit(0,05;238) 2 f ti = (4) = (5) where fi : ormalized values of atmospheric CO 2 cocetratio f ti : ormalized values of average temperature of Earth [2] The value of χ 2 is less tha the χ crit(0,05;238) 2 (sigificacy level of α=5 %, freedom of 238), (the probability of false reject of the ull hypothesis is exactly 0,05). It ca be declared that there is relatio betwee the ormalized values of atmospheric CO 2 cocetratio ad the ormalized values of average temperature of Earth. It was a great opportuity to aalyse large time series, 238 data of atmospheric CO 2 cocetratio ad average temperature of Earth. I have cosidered the fact that my hypothesis ca be accepted oly whe the value of χ 2 less tha the χ crit(0,05;238) 2. I have aalysed the fact that my hypothesis would be correct if I had oly 95 data of atmospheric CO 2 cocetratio ad average temperature of Earth istead of 238 with the same level sigificacy (the probability of false reject of the ull hypothesis). As I have cotiued my aalysis I looked for the correlatio betwee CO 2 i atmosphere ad global average temperature. Be x ad y the two examied criteria. Let x 1, x 2, x i ad y 1, y 2, y i be the sample of the two criteria. At that momet the correlatio betwee them is: x i y i (x i x) (y i y) r = ( ( xi 2 x i ) 2 ) ( x i y i ( yi 2 ) ) = 2 y i (x i x) 2 (y i y) 2 (6) where: xi : y i : average of x i values average of y i values x = y = x i y i (7) (8)

6 130 Á. TÖRÖK Correlatio [ppm] Tredecy y = 8,0437x + 146, [C] Climate chage Fig. 5. Atmospheric CO 2 cocetratio i the relatio of average temperature of Earth So there is a strog correlatio betwee Atmospheric CO 2 cocetratio ad the average temperature of Earth (r=0.8657). Nowadays with the great huma impact, that is cosiderable to the size of atmosphere, the relatio ca be chaged. The CO 2 emissio caused by humaity raises the global temperature. More tha quarter of the total emissio of CO 2 caused by humaity is produced by road trasportatio [3]. So the road trasportatio cotributes to climate chage (Fig. 6). There is a commo, social will to protect the CO 2 emissio caused by humaity 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% Idustry Households Services Road trasport Rail trasport Aviaitio Waterbore trasport Fig. 6. The road trasportatio cotributes to climate chage Earth ad the eviromet. Climate chage causes the crescedo of climate extremity i Hugary. There is a strog coectio betwee eviromet ad road trasportatio. Road trasportatio has effect o eviromet by emittig pollu-

7 THE ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF RELATION BETWEEN ROAD TRANSPORTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE 131 tats ad greehouse gases, but eviromet has also effect o road trasportatio through climate chage. I this poit of view trasportatio has to hold o i this dyamic space. It has to fulfil the challege of eviromet, society ad ecoomy. 5. Summary The high ratio of road trasportatio i CO 2 emissio caused by humaity made reasoable the research of the relatio betwee road trasportatio ad climate chage. There is a justifiable demad by the society to moderate the evirometal impacts caused by road trasportatio. Before huma impact o atmosphere there was a balaced relatio betwee the cocetratio of atmospherical CO 2 ad global average temperature. Nowadays with the huma impact to the atmosphere the relatio ca be modified. Refereces [1] Nature 399 No 6735 (1999) pp [2] MAGYAR, I. VÁRLAKI, P., Statistics, Taköyvkiadó, Budapest 1982 (I Hugaria). [3] ZÖLDY, M., Effects of Biofuel o CO 2 Emissio of Diesel Oils MTA, Budapest 2006 (I Hugaria).

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II. Descriptive Statistics D. Liear Correlatio ad Regressio I this sectio Liear Correlatio Cause ad Effect Liear Regressio 1. Liear Correlatio Quatifyig Liear Correlatio The Pearso product-momet correlatio