Lecture 19: Inference for SLR & Transformations

Transcription

1 Lecture 19: Inference for SLR & Transformations Statistics 101 Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel April 3, 2012

2 Announcements Announcements HW 7 due Thursday. Correlation guessing game - ends on April 12 at noon. Winner will be announced in class. Prize: +1 (out of 100) point on the final. istics.net/ stat/ correlations Group: sta101 Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

3 Recap Online quiz 7 - commonly missed questions Question 1: Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

4 Recap Review question Which of the following is false? In SLR, (a) residuals should be nearly normally distributed with mean at 0 (b) residuals should have non-constant variance (c) residuals vs. x plot should show a random scatter around 0 (d) the relationship between x and y should be linear, and outliers should be handled with caution Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

5 1 Inference for linear regression Understanding regression output from software HT for the slope CI for the slope An alternative statistic 2 Transformations Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, 2012

6 Major league baseball Yesterday in lab you worked with 2009 MLB data. What was the best predictor of runs? Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

7 Major league baseball Yesterday in lab you worked with 2009 MLB data. What was the best predictor of runs? Runs vs. On base plus slugging runs ob_slg Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

8 Major league baseball R 2 for the regression line for predicting runs from on-base plus slugging is 91.31%. Which of the below is the correct interpretation of this value? 91.31% of (a) runs can be accurately predicted by on-base plus slugging. (b) variability in predictions of runs is explained by on-base plus slugging. (c) variability in predictions of on-base plus slugging is explained by runs. (d) variability in runs is explained by on-base plus slugging. (e) variability in on-base plus slugging is explained by runs. Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

9 Understanding regression output from software Major league baseball (regression output) m = lm(runs ob_slg, data = mlb) summary(m) Call: lm(formula = runs ob_slg, data = mlb) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) e-10 *** ob_slg < 2e-16 *** --- Residual standard error: on 28 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: , Adjusted R-squared: 0.91 F-statistic: on 1 and 28 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16 Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

10 HT for the slope Testing for the slope Clicker question Assuming that the 2009 season is representative of all MLB seasons, we would like to test if these data provide convincing evidence that the slope of the regression line for predicting runs from on-base plus slugging is different than 0. What are the appropriate hypotheses? (a) H 0 : b 0 = 0; H A : b 0 0 (b) H 0 : β 1 = 0; H A : β 1 0 (c) H 0 : b 1 = 0; H A : b 1 0 (d) H 0 : β 0 = 0; H A : β 0 0 Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

11 HT for the slope Testing for the slope (cont.) Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) ob slg We always use a t-test in inference for regression Remember: Test statistic, T = point estimate null value SE Point estimate = b 1 is the observed slope, and is given in the regression output SE b1 is the standard error associated with the slope, and can be calculated as (yi ŷ i ) SE b1 = 2 /(n 2) (xi x i ) 2 is also given in the regression output (and it s silly to try to calculate it by hand, just know that it s doable and why the formula works the way it does) Degrees of freedom associated with the slope is df = n 2, where n is the sample size Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

12 HT for the slope Testing for the slope (cont.) Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) ob slg T = = df = 30 2 = 28 p value = P( T > 17.15) < 0.01 Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

13 HT for the slope % College graduate vs. % Hispanic in LA What can you say about the relationship between of % college graduate and % Hispanic in a sample of 100 zip code areas in LA? Education: College graduate 1.0 Race/Ethnicity: Hispanic Freeways No data 0.0 Freeways No data 0.0 Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

14 HT for the slope % College educated vs. % Hispanic in LA - another look What can you say about the relationship between of % college graduate and % Hispanic in a sample of 100 zip code areas in LA? 100% % College graduate 75% 50% 25% 0% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% % Hispanic Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

15 HT for the slope % College educated vs. % Hispanic in LA - linear model Clicker question Which of the below is the best interpretation of the slope? Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) %Hispanic (a) A 1% increase in Hispanic residents in a zip code area in LA is associated with a 75% decrease in % of college grads. (b) A 1% increase in Hispanic residents in a zip code area in LA is associated with a 0.75% decrease in % of college grads. (c) An additional 1% of Hispanic residents decreases the % of college graduates in a zip code area in LA by 0.75%. (d) In zip code areas with no Hispanic residents, % of college graduates is expected to be 75%. Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

16 HT for the slope % College educated vs. % Hispanic in LA - linear model Do these data provide convincing evidence that there is a statistically significant relationship between % Hispanic and % college graduates in zip code areas in LA? Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) hispanic Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

17 HT for the slope Violent crime rate vs. unemployment Relationship between violent crime rate (annual number of violent crimes per 100,000 population) and unemployment rate (% of work eligible population not working) in 51 US States (including DC): violent_crime_rate DC unemployed Note: The data are from the 2003 Statistical Abstract of the US. A 2012 version is available online, if looking for data on states for your project, it s a good resource. Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

18 HT for the slope Violent crime rate vs. unemployment Clicker question Which of the below is the correct set of hypotheses and the p-value for testing if the slope of the relationship between violent crime rate and unemployment is positive? Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) unemployed (a) H 0 :b 1 = 0 H A :b 1 0 p value = (b) H 0 :β 1 = 0 H A :β 1 > 0 p value = /2 = (c) H 0 :β 1 = 0 H A :β 1 0 p value = /2 = (d) H 0 :b 1 = 0 H A :b 1 > 0 p value = /2 = (e) H 0 :β 1 = 0 H A :β 1 0 p value = Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

19 CI for the slope Confidence interval for the slope Clicker question Remember that a confidence interval is calculated as point estimate±me and the degrees of freedom associated with the slope in a simple linear regression is n 2. Which of the below is the correct 95% confidence interval for the slope parameter? Note that the model is based on observations from 51 states. (a) ± Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) unemployed (b) ± (c) ± (d) ± Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

20 CI for the slope Recap Inference for the slope for a SLR model (only one explanatory variable): Hypothesis test: Confidence interval: T = b 1 null value SE b1 df = n 2 b 1 ± t df =n 2 SE b 1 The null value is often 0 since we are usually checking for any relationship between the explanatory and the response variable The regression output gives b 1, SE b1, and two-tailed p-value for the t-test for the slope where the null value is 0 We rarely do inference on the intercept, so we ll be focusing on the estimates and inference for the slope Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

21 CI for the slope Caution Always be aware of the type of data you re working with: random sample, non-random sample, or population Statistical inference, and the resulting p-values, are meaningless when you already have population data If you have a sample that is non-random (biased), the results will be unreliable The ultimate goal is to have independent observations and you know how to check for those by now Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

22 An alternative statistic ANOVA We considered the t-test as a way to evaluate the strength of evidence for a hypothesis test evaluating the relationship between x and y However, we could focus on R 2 proportion of variability in the response variable (y) explained by the explanatory variable (x) A large R 2 suggests a linear relationship between x and y exists A small R 2 suggests the evidence provided by the data may not be convincing Considering the amount of explained variability is called analysis of variance (ANOVA) In SLR, where there is only one explanatory variable (and hence one slope parameter) t-test and the ANOVA yield the same result In multiple linear regression, they provide different pieces of information Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

23 Transformations 1 Inference for linear regression 2 Transformations Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, 2012

24 Transformations Truck prices The scatterplot below shows the relationship between year and price of a random sample of 43 pickup trucks. Describe the relationship between these two variables. price year From: faculty.chicagobooth.edu/ robert.gramacy/ teaching.html Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

25 Transformations Remove unusual observations Let s remove trucks older than 20 years, and only focus on trucks made in 1992 or later. Now what can you say about the relationship? price year Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

26 Transformations Truck prices - linear model? price residuals year Model: price = b 0 + b 1 year The linear model doesn t appear to be a good fit since the residuals have non-constant variance Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

27 Transformations Truck prices - log transform of the response variable log(price) residuals year Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28 Model: log(price) = b 0 + b 1 year We applied a log transformation to the response variable. The relationship now seems linear, and the residuals no longer have non-constant variance.

28 Transformations Interpreting models with log transformation Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) pu$year Model: log(price) = year For each additional year the car is newer (for each year decrease in car s age) we would expect the log price of the car to increase on average by 0.14 log dollars. which is not very useful... Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

29 Transformations Working with logs Subtraction and logs: log(a) log(b) = log( a b ) Natural logarithm: e log(x) = x We can these identities to undo the log transformation Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

30 Transformations Interpreting models with log transformation (cont.) The slope coefficient for the log transformed model is 0.14, meaning the log price difference between cars that are one year apart is predicted to be 0.14 log dollars. log(price at year x + 1) log(price at year x) = 0.14 ( ) price at year x + 1 log = 0.14 price at year x e log( price at year x + 1 price at year x price at year x + 1 price at year x ) = e 0.14 = 1.15 For each additional year the car is newer (for each year decrease in car s age) we would expect the price of the car to increase on average by a factor of Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

31 Transformations Recap: dealing with non-constant variance Non-constant variance is one of the most common model violations, however it is usually fixable by transforming the response (y) variable The most common variance stabilizing transform is the log transformation: log(y) When using a log transformation on the response variable the interpretation of the slope changes: For each unit increase in x, y is expected on average to decrease/increase by a factor of e b 1. Another useful transformation is the square root: y These transformations may also be useful when the relationship is non-linear, but in those cases a polynomial regression may also be needed (this is beyond the scope of this course, but you re welcomed to try it for your project, and I d be happy to provide further guidance) Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28

32 Transformations R code # load data pu_allyrs = read.csv(" pickups.csv") # drop trucks older than 20 yrs old pu = subset(pu_allyrs, pu_allyrs$year >= 1992) # linear model plot(pu$price pu$year) m1 = lm(pu$price pu$year) abline(m1) plot(m1$residuals pu$year) # model with log transformation plot(log(pu$price ) pu$year) m2 = lm(log(pu$price ) pu$year) abline(m2) plot(m2$residuals pu$year) # model summary and interpretation of the slope coefficient summary(m2) exp(0.14) Statistics 101 (Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel) L19: Inference for SLR & Transformations April 3, / 28