PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY

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Augustus Dalton
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1 PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY Vol.29 No.1 Jan ( ) ; ; ( 10%) ( ) ; ; ; ( 1) [1-] [35-6] ( 1) ; ; ; ; ( ) (2006BAB15B00) 1 (1970 ) tanmh@igsnrr.ac.cn 110~116

2 y 2 = C2 2 =0.5 (1) y 3 = C2 3 =1 (2) 3 [2]1 y = C2 +C2 2 =1.75 (3) 5 5 y 5 = C2 5 +C2 3 =2.6 () 6 6 y 6 = C2 6 +C2 +C2 2 =3.67 (5) 7 7 y 7 = C2 7 +C2 5 +C2 3 =.86 (6) x x x 2 Fig.2 The relationship between vehicle size and congestion probability y x y x = C2 x +C2 x-2 +C2 x- + +C2 2 x 1 Fig.1 Division of urban transportation congestion process ; =.86 (7) x y x = C2 x +C2 x-2 +C2 x- + +C2 3 =.86 (8) x ( 2) 2 1 = ( -00) ( ( )

112 29 ) ( 2 (y 2 y ) y'=lim Δy =0.1672x+0.1235 (9) ) Δx 0 Δx 2 Δy y ; Δx x ( Δx 1 0) 2.

3 ) ( 2 (y 2 y ) y'=lim Δy =0.1672x (9) ) Δx 0 Δx 2 Δy y ; Δx x ( Δx 1 0) 2.1 (congestion externality) [7] (6) (7 ) 3 ; ( ) 7 3 (6) y 7 = C2 7 +C2 5 +C =11.3 (10) 1% [8] [9] 2 ( 3 Fig.3 The comparison of urban spatial pattern between Beijing and Hong Kong ; 0.5km 2009 Google Earth

4 1 113 ( ) ( ) 100 ( 5)96 [10] 15% ( 3 10% ) ( ) 21% 31% %( 2001 ) 3 18% 30% 52% [11] [12] ( ) (cruciform floor) [1-15] ( ) ( ) ( 5) 1 ; ( km/ ) ( ) http//news.sohu.com/ /n shtml 3 Tokyo Metropolitan Government Bureau of General Affairs Statistic Division Management and Coordination Section. Tokyo Statistical Yearbook. (http// tn-eindex.htm 2006).

5 11 29 ( ) ( ) ; ; ~ ~ ~ [16] ; 21%; 7 ( ) 9km/h 5km/ h 82km/h 3km/h [] 3.2 [17]

6 1 115 House [17-18] [2] Pucher J Korattyswaropam N Mittal N et al. Urban transport crisis in India. Transport Policy [3] Tadaki S Nishinari K Kikuchi M et al. Analysis of congested flow at the upper stream of a tunnel. Physica A [] Chen H Ganesan S Jia B. Environmental challenges of post-reform housing development in Beijing. Habital International [5] Vasconcellos E A d. Urban change mobility and transport in S 觔 o Paulo three decades three cities. Transport Policy [6] Fujita M. Urban economic theory land use and city size New York Cambridge University Press [7] Sim L L Malone-Lee L C Chin K H L. Integrating land use and transport planning to reduce work-related travel ; a case study of Tampines Regional Centre in Singapore. Habital International [8] [9] [10] Tan M Li X Lu C. Urban land expansion and arable land ( ) loss of the major cities in China in the 1990s. Science in China (Ser. D Earth Sciences) ( ) [11] [12] Lam W H K Tam M L. Why standard modeling and evaluation procedures are inadequate for assessing traffic congestion measures. Transport Policy [13] [1] Chan E H W Tang B S Wong W S. Density control and the quality of living space a case study of private housing development in Hong Kong. Habitat International [15] Lau S S Y Giridharan R Ganesan S. Multiple and intensive land use case studies in Hong Kong. Habitat Inter- national [16] [17] S..! [18] Olszewski P Xie L. Modelling the effects of road pricing on traffic in Singapore. Transportation Research Part A [1] O'Sullivan A. Urban economics. Beijing Citic Publishing

7 The Computation of Urban Transportation Congestion Probability and Its Implications for Solving Urban Transportation Problems in China TAN Minghong (Institute of Geographic Science and National Resources Researches CAS Beijing China) Abstract Using the mathematics method this article calculated the urban transportation congestion probability and analyzed negative externality of traffic congestion caused by the increasing vehicle and further discussed the implications resulted from this study for solving urban transportation problems in China. The results show that if urban vehicles and roads synchronously increase on each road the traffic jam average probability exhibits the trend of the accelerating growth which can be pictured by the parabola; and along with the size of urban vehicles increase the traffic jam linearly increases caused by the increase of margin vehicles. In the reality the rate of urban road increase is lower than that of urban vehicles and much lower than that of the traffic jam probability. In China city size is huge so the traffic congestion externality is obvious. In the municipal areas the share of transportation land of the whole urban land is very low (around 10%) and the share of urban effective transportation land are smaller. These are important factors affecting urban transportation congestion. In view of the above findings this article provides some measures for reducing urban transportation jam probability among which to develop some satellite towns or to establish multi-central land use pattern are essential. Key words transportation jam; probability; implication; China (1)

Historical Perspectives of Land-use and Land-cover Changes in Beijing

1 Historical Perspectives of Land-use and Land-cover Changes in Beijing Qi LU Institute of Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences Abstract Beijing is one of ancient cities in China.In history, the land