Urban Growth and Transportation Development Patterns for China s Urban Transition

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1 Urban Growth and Transportation Development Patterns for China s Urban Transition Qisheng Pan Professor and Chair, Department of Urban Planning and Environmental Policy, Texas Southern University President, International Association for China Planning (IACP) I-TED 2014 Dallas, Texas April 9-11, 2014

2 1. Introduction China s urbanization ratio increased from 20% in 1980 to 51% in 2011 in just 30 years. It may reach 70% in the next 20 years. Increased income and mobility, the desire for bigger and better living space, and the renovation and reformation of the central cities have prompted many urban residents in China to move to places far from jobs, shops, and destinations for social activities. Increased auto ownership has led to rapid shifts in many Chinese cities -- from walkable, bicycle friendly, and transit dominant infrastructures to a mix of non-mobilized, auto, and transit. Some have moved in the direction of automobile-oriented cities. Though fast urban development in Chinese cities has taken a significant amount of farmland at the cities fringes, many major cities in China are still ranked at the top of world city density rankings.

3 The correlation between high density and more transit use has been corroborated empirically in Western Europe, which has been seen as a counterpoint to the low-density sprawl and high automobile dependence in the U.S. (Bertaud 2004; Bertaud and Richardson, 2004). But Gordon and Cox (2012) reported evidence of convergence between US and Western European cities. It remains a question whether Chinese cities will follow the urban growth and transportation development patterns similar to those found in Western Europe and American cities in the long run.

4 2. The Urban Form of Large Cities in China Do China s cities have different urban growth and transportation development patterns due to distinctive culture, history, geography, and governance systems? If China s cities also follow the standard urban development process, can they learn from the experience of developed countries on urban development -- to deal with urban problems?

5 Built-up densities in Shanghai, 1990 Built-up densities in Beijing, 1990 Source: Author developed using GIS data provided by Alain Bertaud

6 Population density and distance from center in Shanghai, 1990 Population density and distance from center in Beijing, 1990 β γ (Density gradient) R Square (Adjusted) Shanghai (1990) (52.016) (.005) (.065) Beijing (1982) (42.211) (0.011) (0.185) Beijing (1990) (53.088) (0.013) (0.217) Source: Author developed using GIS data provided by Alain Bertaud

7 Population Density in the Four Districts of Beijing, Density of Population (Permanent Residents), People/Km Change of Density (%) Citywide , % 23.2% 47.1% 81.3% Central District (zhongxinqu) Periphery District (WaiWei) Inner Suburbs (JinJiao) Outer Suburbs (YuanJiao) 26,142 25,260 22,860 23, % -9.5% 2.4% -7.3% 2,226 3,126 5,007 7, % 60.2% 49.5% 139.5% % 18.7% 76.8% 109.8% % -12.6% 31.7% 15.1% Share of Population in the Four Districts of Beijing, Central District (zhongxinqu) Periphery District (WaiWei) Inner Suburbs (JinJiao) Outer Suburbs (YuanJiao) Share of Population (Permanent Residents) (%) Change of Population Shares (%) % 21.6% 15.9% 11.0% -4.6% -5.7% -4.8% -10.6% 30.7% 36.9% 47.9% 48.7% 6.1% 11.1 % 0.8% 11.8% 27.2% 26.6% 25.6% 30.8% -0.7% -1.0% 5.2% 4.2% 15.9% 15.0% 10.6% 9.5% -0.9% -4.3% -1.1% -5.5%

8 Population Density and Population Share in the Four Districts of Shanghai, Density of Population (Permanent Residents), People/Km 2 Change of Density (%) Share of Population (%) Change of Population Share (%) Citywide 2,588 3, % Central District (zhongxinqu) 43,048 32, % 7.4% 4.0% -3.3% Periphery District (WaiWei) 21,892 23, % 34.9% 26.3% -8.5% Inner Suburbs (JinJiao) 2,600 4, % 38.9% 47.1% 8.2% Outer Suburbs (YuanJiao) 860 1, % 18.8% 22.5% 3.7%

9 Number of Vehicles and Population in Beijing and Shanghai per capita Vehicles and per capita Incomes in Beijing and Shanghai Source: Author calculation from the Statistical Communiqué on the Economic and Social Development in Beijing and Shanghai,

10 Mode Share of Trips in Beijing and Shanghai, Source: Author calculation from the Statistical Communiqué on the Economic and Social Development in Beijing and Shanghai,

11 Summary of Urban Development in Beijing and Shanghai The fastest growing areas in both Beijing and Shanghai are located in districts with population density lower than 10,000 people per km 2 -- while the central districts have lost density and population share for decades, which reveals suburbanization trends in these two largest cities. Rapid population growth and income increase are causal and dominant factors for the increase of vehicle population in Beijing and Shanghai. The added road capacity cannot match the explosive increase of vehicle population. China s cities follow the standard urban development process; it is possible to learn from the experience of developed countries on urban development.

12 3. Experience of Cities in the Developed World The largest cities in the developed countries have been able to absorb more population -- to continue to be innovative and productive. They grow by finding spatial arrangements that maintain net realized positive economies and externalities, while avoiding many diseconomies and nuisances. Most do so via suburbanization, which accommodates added human capital without sacrificing agglomeration benefits (Gordon and Cox, 2012).

13 Dargay et al. (2007) reported a strong positive relationship between per capita income and auto ownership as a strong and widespread international experience. Automobile use extends the choices available to people and provides alternatives that go with mobility and extended trip range. Extended trip range and dispersed trip ends make automobiles more desirable, which creates a powerful positive feedback loop (Gordon and Cox, 2012).

14 Cities are more productive when people are more mobile. Denser cities are more productive and smarter (J. R. Abel, I. Dey and T. M. Gabe 2012). Greater access to jobs, the higher economic productivity of an urban area, the more opportunities open to people, the better the quality of life. Urban shapes are resilient and path independent (Bertaud 2004). There are no good or bad overall densities (Gordon 2013); specific patterns of development matter.

15 4. Projected Future Urban Growth and Transportation Development in China Large urban areas in China will be able to absorb more population by growing up and growing out. Urban problems generated by high population densities will be eased by growing outward. Largest Chinese cities are likely to follow the trend of suburbanization seen in the developed world due to the powerful link between per capita income and auto ownership. Private auto use will continue to grow in China, similar to Western Europe and the U.S. There is no optimal density or urban form for China s cities.

16 China s cities could improve air quality quickly without compromising economic growth by implementing cuttingedge clear-air technologies for vehicles, coal-fired power plants, and other emission generators. Appropriate combination of multiple market driven approaches and regulatory approaches would be more effective than only regulatory approaches to control urban problems in China s cities. A recent study by Wang et al. (2012) using mobile phone data on GIS system found that congestion time can be reduced as much as 18% when cancelling 1% trips by drivers from some selected neighborhoods having the worst commute. Policies designated for some particular groups could be more effective to alleviate urban problems.