China s Fertility Estimation A Generalized Stable Population Approach

Transcription

1 Vol. 39 No. 6 November Population Research * r 982 r 982 ~ 99 2 ~ 2 99 ~ ~ ~ 2 2 ~ r ~ 2. 6 r 872 China s Fertility Estimation A Generalized Stable Population Approach Chen Wei Abstract Two fertility estimation approaches based on the generalized stable population model using census age distributions are used in this paper to assess Chinese fertility levels in the three inter - censual periods over The integrated approach has obtained estimates of birth rate and number of births that are consistent for the and 2-2 inter - censual periods with but are markedly lower for the 99-2 period than the published estimates by National Bureau of Statistics of China. The corresponding estimates of the three inter - censual total fertility are and. 56 respectively. The variable r method results in estimates of the three inter - censual total fertility being and. 68 respectively. Thus China s overall fertility level in the 2s is around. 6. Keywords Generalized Stable Population Model Population Census Total Fertility The Integrated System for Demographic Estimation The Variable r Method Author Chen Wei is Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China. weichen@ ruc. edu. cn. * 3JJD845 5SHA4

2 ~ ~ r 98 Preston Coale 982 Preston ~ 2 Preston Coale 982 Preston 983 Preston 2 x > y N a N x t = N y t e - x r a t da y l x l y x y t r a l x y x t y N = B l y

3 6 37 N x = Be - x r a da p x p x x 2 N N x = B N N e - x r a da p x N x N c a B N b c a = be - a r x dx p a 4 4 c a = be - ra p a 2 4 Preston Coale 982 Preston 983 Brass logit transformation 4 b p a r Preston 983 Integrated System for Demographic Estimation r Variable r method 4 p a = be - a c a r x dx Brass ln q a p a = α + β ln q s a p s a q s a p s a α β β β = 6 p a = q s a eα p s a be - a r x dx c a = eα q s a p s a + k e α 8 e - a r x dx c a = b + k b q s a p s a

4 38 39 e - a r x dx c a Y qs a p s a X r r r NRR β NRR = m a p a da α m a m a = B a N a N a 2 NRR = β NRR = β α α B a B e a r x dx da v a B a B v a e a r x dx da NRR NRR GRR TFR GRR = NRR /p m TFR = GRR + SRB p m SRB TFR TFR = NRR + SRB p m ~ 2 2 ~ r x = ln N t +h x N t x h 3 h r x 5 a 6 N a = N t +h a - N t a r a h 4 4 c a c a = N a + N a - 5 N a 5

5 6 39 e - a r x dx 7 c a 8 q s a p s a Robust Regression ~ 4 75 ~ 79 Y = X b = X b = = Y = = ~ ~ 2 Table Male Population N a 2 N a 2 N a r a a r x dx c a e - a r x dx c a q s a p s a

6 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 99 2 ~ 2 99 ~ ~ 99 2 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Table ~ 2 Comparison between Estimated and Published Results of Fertility for the Three Inter - censual Periods over ~ ~ 2 2 ~ r 3 r 3 2 ~ a ~ 2 2 NRR ~ r 982 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 2. 7 r r

7 6 4 Table ~ 2 Estimation of NRR for the 2-2 Inter - censual Period 2 ~ v a N a 2 N a 2 r a a r x dx e a r x dx v a e a r x dx ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 2 Table 4 Fertility Estimates for the Three Inter - censual Periods over ~ ~ 2 2 ~ 2 NRR SRB p m TFR p 25 Cai Yong r 99 ~ 2 2 ~ 2 Cai Yong 2 99 r Cai Yong 99

8 r ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 4 2 ~ r %. 8%. 2% ~ 2 2 ~ ~ 2 99 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

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